Why Should DoD Invest in Basic Research?

Why Should DoD Invest in Basic Research? A Presentation for GOMAC Tech 2008 Dr. William S. Rees, Jr. Deputy Under Secretary of Defense (Laboratories and Basic Sciences) Office of the Director Defense Research and Engineering, March 17, 2008

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Context The growth rate of the world population is declining 90% of population growth is in developing and poorer countries 40% of the world s population 2.5 billion people live on less than $2 per day Proportion of working age adults (15 59) is expected to decrease in every area except Africa 880 million people were illiterate, 250 million children worked and 110 million school age children did not attend school, as of 2000 By 2030, China is expected to have 348 million people over 60, nearly as many as the entire projected population of the US Source: Joint Operating Environment United States Joint Forces Command, December 2007, 2

Context 13% of the global population lived in cities in 1900. Today the global proportion of the urban population is 49%. 60% of the globe s population 4.9 billion people will live in urban areas by 2030 Massive urbanization 17 of 22 mega cities will be in the developing world by 2015. Since the 1970 s, weather/climate related losses have increased about 10% per year and accounted for 88% of all property losses covered by insurers from 1980 to 2005 India and China will develop first world energy appetites Many oil exporting countries may use production for their own economies Source: Joint Operating Environment United States Joint Forces Command, December 2007 3 Dr William S. Rees, Jr, DUSD(LABS) <<Basic Research in a...ppt>> 21 Feb 2008 3

Context Current major supplies of petrochemical products will not keep pace with projected demand Only 12 years from now, machine intelligence could equal or surpass that of humans eventually, it will become impossible to differentiate between man and machine Weapons of mass effect will shrink and proliferate: nuclear, bio, directed energy, nanotechnology, and CYBER Source: Joint Operating Environment United States Joint Forces Command, December 2007 4 Dr William S. Rees, Jr, DUSD(LABS) <<Basic Research in a...ppt>> 21 Feb 2008 4

Context Science, technology, and engineering are available globally US scientific leadership is at risk Multi disciplinary technologies will have revolutionary impact 70 % of world R&D is conducted outside the US China is now the third largest investor in R&D (adjusted for purchasing power), behind only the US and Japan The United States is today a net importer of high technology products (+$54B in 1990 to $50B in 2001) Source: Joint Operating Environment United States Joint Forces Command, December 2007 5 Dr William S. Rees, Jr, DUSD(LABS) <<Basic Research in a...ppt>> 21 Feb 2008 5

OUTLINE DoD Basic Research DoD STEM Education Prize Competition 6

Leaders support Basic Research President Bush acknowledged the importance of Basic Research in his January 2008, State of the Union address: To keep America competitive into the future, we must trust in the skill of our scientists and engineers and empower them to pursue the breakthroughs of tomorrow I ask Congress to double federal support for critical basic research in the physical sciences and ensure America remains the most dynamic nation on Earth.. President George W. Bush, State of the Union address, January 28, 2008 The Secretary of Defense supports Basic Research As changes in this century s threat environment create strategic challenges irregular warfare, weapons of mass destruction, disruptive technologies this request places greater emphasis on basic research, which in recent years has not kept pace with other parts of the budget. Secretary of Defense Posture Statement on the FY09 Budget, February 2008 7

Basic Research Basic research is systematic study directed toward greater knowledge or understanding of the fundamental aspects of phenomena and of observable facts without specific applications towards processes or products in mind. It includes all scientific study and experimentation directed toward increasing fundamental knowledge and understanding in those fields of the physical, engineering, environmental, and life sciences related to long term national security needs. It is farsighted high payoff research that provides the basis for technological progress. Basic research may lead to: (a) subsequent applied research and advanced technology developments in Defense related technologies, and (b) new and improved military functional capabilities in areas such as communications, detection, tracking, surveillance, propulsion, mobility, guidance and control, navigation, energy conversion, materials and structures, and personnel support. Program elements in this category involve pre Milestone A efforts. Source: DoD Financial Management Regulation, Volume IIB, Chapter 5, June 2004, 050201 RDT&E Budget Activities. 8

Why Does DoD fund Basic Research? DoD is perpetually, permanently in the capability business By choice, DoD s capabilities depend on technology Technology is the fruit of science Basic Research produces the new, transcendent ideas Threats are multiplying, ramifying Science is burgeoning outside the US spawning new technologies Technologies move rapidly across borders If technology exists, it will be used, first in weapons We cannot know when a discovery will become a capability but we know with absolute certainty that without discovery, our capabilities remain static. 9

Why Does DoD fund Basic Research? Generates discoveries, new knowledge, and improved understanding Achieves technological superiority Prevents technological surprise Educates scientists and engineers in physical science disciplines Ensures that scientific expertise and engineering rigor supports DoD technical decisions Sustains the human talent and research infrastructure 10

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$M Federal R&D Funding PBR FY2009 Agriculture, 1,952 DHS, 3,287 NSF, 5,201 Commerce, 1,157 Transportation 901 Veteran s Affairs 884 Interior 617 EPA 550 All others 1,145 Energy, 10,558 NASA, 10,737 HHS, 29,480 Defense, 79,615 President s FY 2009 Budget showing Agency Federally funded Research and Development Source: Federal Budget FY 2009 Analytical perspective, pg 52+ available at http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/fy2009/pdf/apers/crosscutting.pdf. The DoD total is from the DoD Comptroller, FY09 R-1 page II 12

DoD Research, Development, Test & Evaluation FY 2009 BASIC RESEARCH 2.1% APPLIED RESEARCH 5.3% Development 92.5% FY09 RDT&E request = $79.62B (Budget Activities 1 7) 1 7) Source: DoD Comptroller R-1 page III 13

FY08 & FY09 DoD RDT&E Budget Request Comparison BA 1 BA 7 ($B) 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 FY08 FY09 14

FY09 DoD R&E Budget Request $27.25B $9,000 $8,000 Advanced Component Dev and Prototypes Advanced Technology Development (Millions) $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 Applied Research Basic Research $2,000 $1,000 $0 Army Navy/USMC AF DARPA Chem Bio DTRA OSD Other DA Note: R&E= RDT&E minus System Development and Demonstration (BA-5), Management Support (BA-6), and Operational Systems Development (BA-7) 15

FY09 DoD S&T Budget Request $11.48B 3,155 Basic Research Applied Research (Millions) 1,842 1,840 2,075 578 739 679 1,625 Adv. Tech Dev. 1,281 724 379 633 528 1,044 452 1,334 196 595 338 204 53 440 211 211 18 1,140 69 72 248 208 14 26 16

RDT&E Budget Request Growth FY09 Compared to FY08 2,500 +2,185 (TY Dollars in Millions) 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 +271 +543 +112 +1,439 +231 0-500 -102 17

RDT&E Budget Request Growth 20,000 FY09 Compared to FY01 +16,04 6 (TY Dollars in Millions) 15,000 10,000 5,000 +482 +2,350 +1,111 +8,964 +10,876 +1,746 0 18

DoD S&T Requests 80% Percent of S&T Funding 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Applied Research Basic Research Advanced Technology Development 0% Note: Advanced Technology Development funding began in FY78 19

DoD R&E Funding By Budget Activity 16,000 President s Budget Requests (in FY08 Constant Dollars) FY08 Constant Year Dollars (in Millions) 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Basic Research Advanced Component Development & Prototypes Advanced Technology Development Applied Research BA 4 BA 3 BA 2 BA 1 20

FY09 President s Budget Request for DoD Basic Research 450,000 UNIVERSITY RESEARCH INITIATIVES 400,000 DEFENSE RESEARCH SCIENCES 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Chem/bio NATIONAL DEFENSE EDUCATION PROGRAM ILIR UNIVERSITY & INDUSTRY RESEARCH CENTERS Dr. Source: William DoD S. Rees, Comptroller Jr. DUSD(LABS) R-1 GOMACTech 08.ppt 17 March 08 21

Sources & Destinations of Defense Basic Research Funding DARPA, 12% Air Force, 27% OSD, 4% DTRA, 1% Destination Performers of Defense Basic Research - 65% to Universities & Industry CBD, 3% Army, 22% Navy, 31% Industry, 12% Source 80% of Defense Basic Research is Investments by Military Departments Non-profits, Other, 2% FFRDCs, 1% 7% Universities, Intramural, 53% 25% Sources: FY09 President s Budget & DoD component inputs to NSF Federal Funds for R&D survey (FY06 latest available) 22

FY08 & 09 DoD 6.1 Budget Request 500 400 $ Millions 300 200 100 0 Source: DOD, DDR&E Army Navy/USMC AF DARPA OSD Other FY08 Basic Research (6.1) FY09 Basic Research (6.1) 23

Recipients of DoD S&T Funds DoD S&T Funding Recipients by Percentage (PBR08) 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Universities In-house Labs Industry Other *Includes non-profit institutions, State & local govt., & foreign institutions Source: National Science Foundation Report (PBR08) 24

DoD Basic Research Funding FY1998 2009 1,800 1,700 (President s Budget Request & Appropriated) FY08 Constant Dollars (in Millions) 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 Source: DOD, DDR&E 25

Addition to DoD Basic Research $M FY08 PBR FY08 Appropr iation FY09 PBR Change from PBR 08 Real Change from PBR 08 Army 305.8 381.5 379.4 24.06% 21.36% Navy 467.2 506.1 528.3 13.06% 10.61% Air Force 375.2 407.7 452.3 20.55% 17.93% Defense Wide 279.9 338.3 338.7 21.00% 18.37% Total Basic Research 1,428.1 1,633.7 1,698.6 18.94% 16.36% 26

Conceptual Strategic Planning Process Joint Operational Capability Gaps QDR, SPG classified Not all joint operational capability gaps will have S&T capability gaps Joint S&T Capability Gaps Not all joint S&T capability gaps will demand basic research investment JWSTP Map S&T Gaps Against Services Basic Research Programs Some Service basic research initiatives address enterprisewide issues Extant Service specific Basic Research program Joint, Basic Research investment gaps Department-level Basic Research Investment Guidance unclassified 27

Quadrennial Defense Review Irregular Defeat Terrorist Extremism Catastrophic Counter WMD Shifting Our Weight Defend Homeland Today s Capability Portfolio Traditional Shape Choices Disruptive 28

Desired S&T Investment Areas 29

FY07 DoD Basic Research (by Taxonomy Category) Total $1.548B $M 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Engineering Physical Sciences Mathematics, Information, Netw ork and Computer Scienc Life Sciences Environmental Sciences Psychology and Social Sciences 30

OUTLINE DoD Basic Research DoD STEM Education Prize Competition 31

A Unique National Security Problem HIGH Job Applicants Desired Employees Job Applicants LOW Not Clearable Clearable at highest level 32

Opportunities The development of a strategic S&T scouting effort linked to the US university and private R&D communities may allow the US to exploit leapfrog technologies developed elsewhere. Challenge of new technological powers may encourage greater investment in science, technology, and engineering education in the United States. When I compare our high schools to what I see when traveling abroad, I am terrified for our workforce of tomorrow. - Bill Gates Source: Joint Operating Environment United States Joint Forces Command, December 2007, page 53 Rising Above the Gathering Storm, National Academy of Sciences, 2006 33 Dr William S. Rees, Jr, DUSD(LABS) <<Basic Research in a...ppt>> 21 Feb 2008 33

Millennials are tomorrow s workforce They watch wars and revolutions live on TV and the Internet Elvis died 20 years before they were born Satellite radio has been around since they were 5 They have only known two presidents WWI started nearly a century before they were born They have never seen a film camera There have always been hybrid cars Source: Millennial: About them Navy Recruiting Command briefing, 7 Feb 2008 They have always been online They have never known a world without digital phones or DVDs Soviet Union fell 7 years before they were born When Sputnik was launched, their parents were in kindergarten Their buddy lists span the globe. There has always been one Germany One electronic device does it all: TV, Internet, Phone, Music, Data, Computing 34 Dr William S. Rees, Jr, DUSD(LABS) <<Basic Research in a...ppt>> 21 Feb 2008 34

Millennials are tomorrow s workforce Globalism Millennials grew up seeing everything in the world as: Global Connected Open for business 24/7 Source: Millennial: About them Navy Recruiting Command briefing, 7 Feb 2008 35 Dr William S. Rees, Jr, DUSD(LABS) <<Basic Research in a...ppt>> 21 Feb 2008 35

Millennials are tomorrow s workforce They are taking longer to graduate from college Only 37% of first time freshmen at four year schools earned their bachelor s degrees in four years Another 6% took up to six years Source: Millennial: About them Navy Recruiting Command briefing, 7 Feb 2008 36 Dr William S. Rees, Jr, DUSD(LABS) <<Basic Research in a...ppt>> 21 Feb 2008 36

Millennials are tomorrow s workforce They are technology sophisticates Through media multitasking kids are spending 6.5 hours a day with media, but are packing more than 8.5 hours worth of exposure into that time Younger kids have more and more media devices; of those 8 14 years old 39% have cell phones 24% have a hand held Internet device or PDA 12% have a laptop computer Source: Millennial: About them Navy Recruiting Command briefing, 7 Feb 2008 37 Dr William S. Rees, Jr, DUSD(LABS) <<Basic Research in a...ppt>> 21 Feb 2008 37

NDEP Portfolio Components Pre-College (K-12) Other Gvmt DoD Comm DoDEA Air Force Undergraduate Graduate Post- Graduate Digital Delivery Other Org s PEP SLM SMART NSSEFF STAR BASE Navy Math Content Army STEM Interest Potential DoD Employees DoD Employees DoD Affiliated Faculty 38

SMART s National Impact 3 2 2 22 2 5 1 3 2 1 1 1 4 5 3 1 5 3 8 1 3 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 10 1 2 3 5 13 1 6 5 1 1 3 Note: Student awards (by state of residence) 39

NDSEG Fellows Undergraduate Schools 2007 Data 2006 Data 2005 Data 2004 Data 2003 Data KEY: 17% 16% 15% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% VA Polytech UC Berkley N'western Cornell Columbia PA State Caltech U of IL Stanford Harvard MIT As percentage of fellows selected for given year, with respect to FY07 top numbers 40

NDSEG Fellows Graduate Schools 20% 19% 18% 17% 16% 15% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% MIT Stanford Harvard UC Berkley Princeton KEY: Carnegie 2005 Data 2004 Data U of MI CalTech As percentage of fellows selected for given year, with respect to FY07 top numbers N'western U of IL Urbana 41 2006 Data 2007 Data

OUTLINE DoD Basic Research DoD STEM Education Prize Competition 42

Wearable Power Prize 1 st Prize $1M, 2 nd prize 500K, 3 rd prize: $250K Goal: Reduce weight of Warfighters power systems Competitors will produce prototypes that provide 20W average electric power continuously for 4 days, attach to a vest, and weigh 4 kg or less Capstone event will be held on October 4 th, 2008, at the Marine Corps Air-Ground Combat Center, Twentynine Palms, California. See: http://www.dod.mil/ddre/prize 43

Wearable Power Prize Team Registrations 3 1 2 22 1 5 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 2 12 1 1 6 1 6 1 1 1 4 3 8 6 10 6 13 2 1 8 6 5 3 2 169 Teams Registered 44

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