The Trajectory of Iran s Nuclear Program

The Trajectory of Iran s Nuclear Program

The Trajectory of Iran s Nuclear Program Michele Gaietta

the trajectory of iran s nuclear program Copyright Michele Gaietta, 2015. Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2015 978-1-137-54168-0 All rights reserved. First published in 2015 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN in the United States a division of St. Martin s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010. Where this book is distributed in the UK, Europe and the rest of the world, this is by Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave and Macmillan are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries. ISBN 978-1-349-57841-2 ISBN 978-1-137-50825-6 (ebook) DOI 10.1057/9781137508256 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Gaietta, Michele, 1982 The trajectory of Iran s nuclear program / Michele Gaietta. pages cm Summary: The Trajectory of Iran s Nuclear Program offers a unique in-depth historical and technical description of Iran s nuclear program, highlighting the extraordinarily shifting political, economic, and strategic contexts that have influenced the evolution of Iran s nuclear activities. More than thirteen years after the outbreak of the Iran nuclear issue and about sixty years after the first agreement on research into peaceful uses of atomic energy, huge uncertainty still persists about the future of Iran s nuclear program, as well as the possible reasons behind the political and financial effort put by the country into its advancement in the nuclear field. The author makes a valuable contribution to a better understanding of this crucial issue s past and present states of affairs, pointing out its connections with the evolution of global and regional strategic balances, as well as the stability of the international regime against the proliferation of nuclear weapons Provided by publisher. Includes bibliographical references and index. 1. Nuclear weapons Iran. 2. Nuclear energy Government policy Iran. 3. Nuclear arms control Iran. 4. Iran Politics and government 1979 1997. 5. Iran Politics and government 1997 I. Title. U264.5.I7G35 2015 623.4 51190955 dc23 2015007503 A catalogue record of the book is available from the British Library. Design by SPi Global. First edition: September 2015 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

In memory of my uncle, Dario Piola

Contents List of Figures Acknowledgments ix xi Introduction 1 1 The Nuclear Program of the Shah (1957 79) 5 2 The Impact of the Revolution (1979 89) 31 3 Progressive Consolidation (1989 98) 49 4 Expansion and Disclosure (1998 2003) 73 5 Diplomacy at Work (2003 05) 95 6 Sanctions and Tensions (2005 08) 111 7 Possible Military Dimensions (1989 2003) 137 8 Negotiations and Pressures (2008 12) 153 9 Rouhani s Prudence and Hopes 181 Conclusion 213 Notes 219 Bibliography (Books and Journals) 267 Index 273

List of Figures 0.1 The Nuclear Fuel Cycle xii 1.1 Iran Nuclear Sites: Operational, In Construction, and Projected/Minor (1958 1978) 22 3.1 Iran Nuclear Sites: Operational, In Construction, and Projected/Minor (1979 1998) 71 4.1 Design, Component, and Production Centers P-1/IR-1 Gas Centrifuge 85 6.1 Natanz (FEP), Centrifuge Installed, Fed with UF 6 and Under Vacuum (2007 2011) 129 8.1 Natanz (FEP), Units Fed with UF 6, Impact of STUXNET (2007 2012) 166 8.2 Natanz (PFEP) + Fordow, LEU 20% Production and Stock (2010 2013) 176 9.1 Iran Nuclear Sites: Operational, In Construction, and Projected/Minor (1998 2014) 210

Acknowledgments Ten years have passed since I began collecting information on the Iranian nuclear program for my MA thesis. However, it was in doctoral school at the Catholic University of the Sacred Heart in Milan that I deepened my research and analysis on the several historical, political, technical, and strategic aspects that should be addressed to achieve a better understanding of the whole question. This book is therefore largely based on my doctoral thesis The Iranian Nuclear Program: Analysis, Motivations, Perspectives. Its publication would not have been possible without considerable support from a great number of people. First and foremost, I am extremely grateful to my supervisor, Professor Roberto Zoboli, for his guidance and encouragement over the course of many years. Special thanks also to Professor Riccardo Redaelli for giving me his in-depth comments and thoughts that have helped me gain a better understanding of the Iranian perspective on the matter. I would like to thank Mark Fitzpatrick for our meetings in London and for giving me the chance to collaborate with the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Additional thanks to Professor Farian Sabahi, Professor Mario Agostino Maggioni, and to the officials of the Foreign Ministry and Diplomatic Corps of Italy who I met in Rome and Vienna. Many thanks also to ISODARCO (International School on Disarmament and Research on Conflicts) and to ESARDA (European Safeguards Research & Development Association) for giving me opportunities for discussion with leading experts in the field of nuclear nonproliferation. I have also benefitted from the help of colleagues and friends. Above all to two people: Professor Antonio Zotti, who offered me valuable comments and suggestions on my PhD manuscript and subsequent revisions, and Judge Fabio Rossi, who introduced me to Iranian officials in Bern. Thanks also to Luca Romano for his help in the translation and editing

xii Acknowledgments of the work and to Massimo Cagnoni, rest in peace, for his technical advice. On a more personal note, I thank my great family for their enduring support throughout this endeavor. Last but not least, a special thanks to Andreana for her patience and love. Figure 0.1 The Nuclear Fuel Cycle