US Economic Indicators: Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization August 1, 218 Dr. Edward Yardeni 16-972-7683 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 4-664-1333 djohnson@ Mali Quintana 4-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Industrial Production 1-4 High-Tech Production -6 Capacity Utilization Rates 7-8 Real GDP & Industrial Production 9 August 1, 218 / Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization www.
2 1 Figure 1. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (3-month percent change in 3-month average, saar) Industrial Production Total (3.3) 2 1-1 1 21 211 212 213 214 21 216 217 218 219-1 1 1 Manufacturing (.) 1-4 21 211 212 213 214 21 216 217 218 219-4 3 2 1 High Tech* (16.3) 3 2 1-1 1 21 211 212 213 214 21 216 217 218 219-1 1 1 Excluding High-Tech (-.1) 1-21 211 212 213 214 21 216 217 218 219 * Includes computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. - Page 1 / August 1, 218 / Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization www.
Industrial Production 11 Figure 2. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (212=, ratio scale) Business Equipment Consumer Goods 12 12 11 11 11 1 1 Total Manufacturing 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 19 2 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 19 2 1 12 11 12 Information Processing Industrial 11 1 9 6 Motor Vehicles (million units, saar) 3 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 19 2 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 19 2 Page 2 / August 1, 218 / Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization www.
2 1 1 1 1 1 14 13 12 11 4 Figure 3. US INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION OF CONSUMER GOODS (212=) Source: Federal Reserve Board. Industrial Production Durable Consumer Goods Automotive Products Computers, Video and Audio Equipment Appliances, Furniture, Carpeting 2 1 1 1 1 1 14 13 12 11 4 13 12 Figure 4. US INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION OF BUSINESS EQUIPMENT (212=) 13 12 11 11 Source: Federal Reserve Board. Business Equipment Transit Information Processing Industrial & Other Page 3 / August 1, 218 / Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization www.
Industrial Production 12 Figure. US INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS (212=) 12 11 Energy Non-Energy 11 1 1 Source: Federal Reserve Board. 11 Figure 6. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION OF DEFENSE & SPACE EQUIPMENT (212=) 11 1 1 Source: Federal Reserve Board. Page 4 / August 1, 218 / Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization www.
High-Tech Production 1 14 Figure 7. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (212=) 1 14 12 Computer & Peripheral Equipment 12 4 1 4 1 13 13 11 Communications Equipment 11 1 1 14 12 4 2 Semiconductor & Other Electronic Components Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 1 1 14 12 4 2 Page / August 1, 218 / Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization www.
Figure 8. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (3-month percent change in 3-month average, saar) High-Tech Production 2 2-2 Computers (.) -2-2 -2 - - - -12 4 2-2 -4 - - - Communications Equipment (23.6) Semiconductors & Other Electronic Components (16.8) Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. - 2-2 - - - -12 4 2-2 -4 - - - Page 6 / August 1, 218 / Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization www.
Capacity Utilization Rates Figure 9. CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATES (percent) Total Manufacturing Total Total Excluding High-Tech Selected High-Tech* 11 Computers & Peripheral Equipment Semiconductors & Other Electronic Components Communications Equipment 11 4 *Includes computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 4 Page 7 / August 1, 218 / Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization www.
1 4 3 Figure 1. CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATES (percent) Machinery Electical Equipment, Appliances & Components Aerospace & Miscellaneous Transportation Motor Vehicles & Parts Capacity Utilization Rates 1 4 3 Paper Chemicals Petroleum & Coal Products Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Page 8 / August 1, 218 / Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization www.
2 1 Figure 11. Real GDP & Industrial Production REAL GDP: GOODS vs. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (yearly percent change in 3-month moving average) 2 1 1 1 - - -1-1 -1-2 -2 67 69 71 73 77 79 81 83 87 89 91 93 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 1 17 19 21 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Federal Reserve Board. Industrial Production: Manufacturing (yearky prcent change) (2.9) Real GDP: Goods (4.9) -1-2 -2 11 8 Figure 12. REAL MANUFACTURING & TRADE SALES vs. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (yearly percent change) 11 8 2 May 2-1 -1-4 -4-7 -1-13 Real Business Sales* (3.2) Industrial Production: Manufacturing (2.8) -7-1 -13-16 -16-19 -19 * Inflation-adjusted manufacturing & trade sales. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Federal Reserve Board. Page 9 / August 1, 218 / Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization www.
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