ICBM MODERNIZATION PROGRAM ANNUAL PROGRESS REPORT TO THE COMMITTEES ON ARMED SERVICES OF THE SENATE AND HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES 5 JANUARY 986 UNCLASSIFIED EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
INTRODUCTION In January 983, President Reagan established the Commission on Strategic Forces (Scowcroft Commission) to review the Strategic Modernization Program, particularly ICBM modernization. The Commission issued a report that both the President and the Congress endorsed. The Commission's basic premise was that "...by trying to solve all ICBM tasks with a single weapon and a single basing mode in the face of the trends in technology, we have made the problem of modernizing the ICBM force so complex as to be virtually insoluble." With this in mind, the Commission recommended a. Deploying 00 M-X missiles in existing Minuteman silos. The throwweight and megatonnage carried by the 00 M-X missiles is about the same as that of the 54 large Titan missiles being retired plus that of the 00 Minuteman III missiles that the M-Xs would replace. b. Commencing engineering design of a single-warhead ICBM weighing about 5 tons, leading to full-scale development in 987 and an initial operational capability (IOC) in the early 990s. c. Initiating a program to resolve the uncertainties regarding silo or shelter hardness, leading to later decisions about hardening M-X in silos and deploying a single-warhead ICBM in hardened silos or shelters. Vigorous investigation should proceed on different types of land-based vehicles and launchers, particularly hardened vehicles. Following the Commission's report, the Congress approved the ICBM Modernization Program in May 983, and released the FY 83 funds that it had withheld pending presentation of an acceptable Peacekeeper basing mode. The FY 84 DOD Authorization Act [Sec. 23(c)] included the requirement that the Secretary of Defense, not later than 5 January each year from 984 through 988, submit to the Committees on Armed Services of the Senate and House of Representatives a report on progress in developing and deploying the Peacekeeper missile system, and progress in silo-hardening technology. This is the third of these annual reports.
PEACEKEEPER According to the FY 86 DOD Authorization Act, "the number of M-X missiles deployed at any time in existing Minuteman silos may not exceed 50...unless a basing mode for the M-X missile other than existing Minuteman silos is specifically authorized by legislation..." Congressional action limiting FY 85 and FY 86 Peacekeeper procurement significantly increased missile procurement unit costs. The program to deploy 50 Peacekeepers at F.E. Warren AFB in Wyoming remains on schedule for the December 986 IOC, although some schedule revisions were made as a consequence of the congressionally mandated limit of 50 missiles. The Secretary of Defense has directed the Air Force to develop a research effort to examine other basing modes for a second 50 Peacekeeper missiles. FIGURE PEACEKEEPER DEVELOPMENT SCHEDULE PROGRAM MILESTONES TEST FLIGHTS FY CY 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 8 A ST FLIGHT A A A A A INITIAL DIRECTION FINAL ENVIRONMENTAL ST SILO START ASSEMBLY OPERATIONAL CAPABILITY IMPACT STATEMENT FILED FLIGHT AND CHECKOUT (EXISTING MM SILOS) I I I I I I I II I MISSILE PRODUCTION BASING (EXISTING MM SILOS) PRODUCTION START A A PRODUCTION READINESS REVIEWS A. ^ PRELIMINARY DESIGN REVIEWS A ST MISSILE HARDWARE DELIVERED PRODUCTION A ASTART A A A A INITIAL CRITICAL START ASSEMBLY OPERATIONAL CAPABILITY DESIGN REVIEWS AND CHECKOUT (EXISTING MM SILOS) Ten of the 20 planned Peacekeeper Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation (RDT&E) launches have
been successfully completed, including flight tests 7 through 0 in 985. Testing continues to provide high confidence that the Peacekeeper will meet the required weapon system performance and accuracy by IOC. Phase II of the RDT&E testing (flight tests 6-3) continued successfully in 985, measuring missile and reentry vehicle (RV) capabilities, and testing silo, missile, and ground support equipment integration. Flight tests 9 (August 985) and 0 (November 985) were both launched from a modified Minuteman silo at Vandenberg AFB. Other major accomplishments in 985 included the award of contracts for the production of the Peacekeeper missile and its related support equipment, and for RDT&E activities, including missile guidance and propulsion tests and Peacekeeper basing system tests. Significant progress was also made in developing command, control, and communications (C 3 ) systems to support Peacekeeper, including an airborne launch control capability common to both Peacekeeper and Minuteman. FIGURE 2 PEACEKEEPER SILO LAUNCH
Construction of roads, utilities, and support facilities at F. E. Warren AFB continued in 985 and is over 70 percent complete. The contract for Peacekeeper Assembly and Checkout (A&CO), which will support silo modifications and missile assembly, was awarded in February 985. Operational silo modifications will begin in January 986. leading to an IOC of 0 missiles in December 986. Deployment of the first 50 missiles is scheduled to be completed by December 988. SMALL ICBM AND HARD MOBILE LAUNCHER The Small ICBM and Hard Mobile Launcher (HML) program made significant progress during the past year. The Air Force completed Phase I of the acquisition process and began Phase II: pre-full-scale development (pre-fsd). Contracts have been awarded for weapon system assembly, test, and system support (AT&SS), missile ordnance, propulsion development, weapon control systems concepts, HML concepts, and guidance and control systems, including Alternate Inertial Navigation Systems (AINS). A 6,000-nautical mile range,,000-pound throwweight missile FIGURE 3 SMALL ICBM PROGRAM SCHEDULE CY FY 84 83 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 9 92 9 92 CONCEPT DEFINITION/ PRE-FULL-SCALE DEVELOPMENT FSD, BASING. & AREA SELECTION DECISION o o MINUTEMAN TEST FLIGHTS FULL-SCALE DEVELOPMENT SMALL ICBM FIRST FLIGHT SYSTEM FIRST FLIGHT DEVELOPMENT TESTING AND EVALUATION LAST FLIGHT PRODUCTION/DEPLOYMENT IOC
that weighs no more than 30,000 pounds is feasible. Initial tests of high-energy propellants, high-strength motor cases, and accurate guidance and control subsystems have demonstrated that the required performance is achievable with low to moderate risk. The Small ICBM propulsion concept-definition phase ended in February 985 with the award of contracts to two competing contractors for each of the three stages. Each contractor continued to validate the technologies needed to meet the baseline requirements for the Small ICBM. During 985, successful full-scale motor firings demonstrated the performance feasibility of high-energy propellants, and burst tests demonstrated the feasibility of lightweight, high-strength motor cases. To further demonstrate their specific concepts, each contractor will test three full-size prototype Small ICBM motors and burst-test three to eight motor cases in 986. Two of the four HML concept-definition competitors were selected in January 985 to continue competition during the pre-fsd phase. Their studies and tests confirmed that an FIGURE 4 MOBILITY TEST VEHICLES BOEING MARTIN
HML design hardened to 30 pounds per square inch (psi) or greater is feasible. This is based on concept evaluations using scale models in blast tube tests and in nuclear blast simulation tests above ground. Both HML contractors constructed full-size HML mobility test vehicles that completed field tests at the contractors facilities. Air Force field-testing of the mobility test vehicles began in January 986. The Air Force Nuclear Criteria Group and the Defense Nuclear Agency (DNA) have continued to define the nuclear environment for HML development. The Air Force and DNA have also developed simulators to generate airblast environments for testing HML designs. Small ICBM pre-fsd is characterized by industry competition on the HML, the weapon control system, and the ordnance, guidance, and propulsion stages, which will lead to a firm system baseline design and basing mode alternatives to support an FSD and basing mode selection decision. Full-scale development is scheduled to begin in the first quarter of FY 87, leading to missile flighttesting in early 989 and IOC in December 992, in accordance with Sec.23(a) and (b) of the FY 84 DOD Authorization Act (the Price Amendment). In order to assist the area selection and basing mode decisions associated with entering FSD, efforts are underway to prepare a Legislative Environmental Impact Statement (LEIS). The LEIS will address potentially significant environmental impacts that may be created as a result of stationing the Small ICBM at candidate deployment installations around the country. To date 4,200 installations have been screened, and 5 remain as candidates, including 6 existing Minuteman facilities. The 5 candidates will be further narrowed in early 986. The LEIS is to be completed by September 986. FOLLOW-ON BASING TECHNOLOGY Follow-on basing technology efforts continued in 985 with encouraging results in the areas of silo hardening and deep basing. Four major silo hardness tests using scale models were successfully conducted in 985 at the Luke Air Force Bombing and Gunnery Range near Yuma, Arizona. Results from these tests indicate that it may be possible to harden silos to levels over 50 times greater than existing silo
hardness. Testing and analysis of silo designs continue with focus on reducing costs, risk, and lead time to support an alternative basing decision for Peacekeeper and/or the Small ICBM in FY 87-88. Reevaluation of high-yield nuclear craters in the Pacific, coupled with results of a May 985 simulated nuclear cratering test, indicate that contrary to earlier theories, smaller craters and reduced ground motions can be expected for dry continental U.S. geologies. An October 985 DNA test in an underground cavity further supported this downward revision of crater-related effects. Conceptual studies and supporting technology activities for deep basing continued at a relatively low level of effort. In 985, a plan for a 5-year advanced R&D program to support a late-990s deep basing option, including program objectives and milestones, was submitted to the Congress. Also in 985, new contracts were initiated toward developing and demonstrating pre-prototype subsystem designs and analyzing critical cost and survivability issues. The U.S. ICBM Modernization Program Peacekeeper, Small ICBM and Hard Mobile Launcher, and Follow-on Basing Technologies is making significant progress. These diverse technical efforts organized, managed, and executed to attain national objectives set forth by the Scowcroft Commission, approved by the President, and endorsed by the Congress will ensure a high level of strategic security for the United States into the foreseeable future.