Centre for Military and Strategic Studies Canada, Europe and the Defence of the Arctic: Partners or Competitors? The European Union, Canada, and the Arctic: Challenges of International Governance Rob Huebert Rhuebert@ucalgary.ca Ottawa September 21 2011
Main Issues Canada and Europe as long time Partners and allies Canada-European Arctic relations were generally minor in past but now growing in importance New (Renewed?) Security interest in region Tendency to refuse to discount change until it occurs!
Emerging European-Canadian Security Issues Relationship with Russia Role of energy To contain or engage Role of NATO Issue Areas Hans Island NWP
Canada-Europe
Transformation of the Arctic The Arctic is a state of massive transformation Climate Change Resource Development (was up to a high $140+ barrel of oil- now $86/ barrel) Geopolitical Transformation/Globalization How do we understand what is happening? What is the role for the development of the new Arctic security regime and its impact on Canada-EU relations?
Arrival of New Actors and New Interests in the Arctic Issue is not voice but is interest European Union Membership on Arctic Council China Polar Bases: 2 ½ Antarctica; 1 Arctic Arctic Vessels Xue Long; 10,000 ton new research icebreaker Interests: Climate Change; Navigation; Resources Membership on Arctic Council
New Geopolitics of the North Russia Renewed Assertiveness Petrodollars United States Multi-lateral reluctance/emerging concern to act International Role as remaining Superpower Norway Refocus on North Growing Interest (Concern?) with Russia Denmark Issues with Greenland social; energy New Naval capabilities Iceland Economic melt-down Volcanic melt-down Finland/Sweden NATO Loyal Arrow Canada Re-examining its Arctic capabilities Renewed Assertiveness
Issue 1: European and Canadian Relationship with Russia Evolving Russian Arctic Strategic policy/capability Evolving Governance in Russia European-Russian relationship Oil and gas supplies Canada-Russia Extended Continental Shelf NWP and NSR
Russia Resumption of Northern Fleet Operation Commitment to have 5-6 Carrier Battle-groups by 2025/30 - Admiral Vladimir Vysotsky Resumption of Russian TU-95 (Bear) Arctic Flights, Aug18/07; decision to build new bomber Purchase of 4 Mistral
Renewed Russian Maritime Nuclear Deterrent 1990 s Period of Reduction AMEC/G-8 assistance in Sub Decommissioning 2000 s Renewal 6 SSBN 995 Borey 1 built; 3 building 6 SSN 885 Yasen/Graney 1 built; 2 building Admiral Vladimir Vysotsky Yury Dolgoruky Commitment to 20 more SSBN in 15 years
Swedish/Baltic (Northern NATO) Response to French Sales to Russia Nordic-Baltic Summit Jan 2011 UK, Norway, Sweden, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania plus Finland, Sweden Swedish FM Submarines Procurement Mistral
Summary Differences between Canada and Europe in responding to Russia Canada tends to be more assertive (aggressive?) But divisions regarding response to Russia exists within Europe Differences also public and non-public
Issue 2: NATO What are NATO states doing in Arctic? What is role of NATO in Arctic? Expanded more formal role SAR; confidence building No role Gaining/Losing Northern NATO members +Finland..Sweden -Iceland
Norway The High North is the most important priority area of the Norwegian Defence- Norwegian Minister of Defence Anne-Grete Strøm-Erichsen April 2008 5 New Ice-Capable Frigates Very capable Helicopters stationed at northern base of Bardufoss Purchase 48 F-35s November 2008
Norway - Exercise Cold Response Large scale exercise with Norway and NATO forces 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010 8,000-10,000 Held in Northern Norway in mid-march
Denmark Substantial Re-building Northern and General purpose surface fleet post 1989 4 Thesis ice-capable; 2 Knud Ramussen ice capable Decision expected in 2-3 years F-35 purchase Deployments of F-16s to Greenland Long-term Security Ramifications of Greenland Independence
Finland/Sweden Loyal Arrow June 2009 200 aircraft; 2000 troops; 50 vessels Finland developing closer links with NATO Response to Russia/Georgia engagement Sweden concern by French sale to Russia Sweden is currently investigating submarine sighting off Gothenburg HMS Ark Royal in Swedish Waters
Iceland Closure of the US Air Station Keflavik in September 2006 Economic and Volcanic Impacts of Iceland GDP Impact of Arctic Five meetings "China and India lent Iceland a helping hand in many constructive ways whereas Europe was hostile and the US was absent," Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson President Sept 2011
France Special Ambassador for the Arctic Annual French Arctic submarine missions 27 th mountain infantry brigade Arctic Operations Air Force operations in Sweden, Finland, Norway, Alaska All surface naval units must carry out Arctic deployment Ministry of Defence June 22, 2010
Canada New Military Operations since 2002 6-8 Arctic Offshore Patrol Vessels Nanisivik Refueling Facility Resolute Bay Training Facility Feb 2008 Budget $720 Million Icebreaker June 2008 Canada First Defence Strategy (Harper White Paper) Northern Strategy summer 2009 :Four pillars Increased Rangers Patrols Mandatory Reporting of Ship Traffic Nordreg
Canada - Northern Exercises Resumed in 2002 Operation Narwhal Hudson Sentinel -2005 Hudson Bay Operation Nanook Eastern Arctic 750 troops and OGD Operation Nunakput Western Arctic Operation Nunalivut Ranger Patrol Operation Nanook 2010 US, Denmark navies/coast guards but not a NATO exercise
Summary NATO is discussing the Arctic Does it have a formal role? NATO members have resumed military exercises in Arctic NATO- Russia Does it embrace/engage Russia? Does it prepare to respond to Russia?
Issue 3.1 Hans Island Long-term low-level treatment of dispute 2002 and 2003 landing off Danish Troops Danish Military Troops on Hans Island HDMS Vaedderen
Hans Island
Summary Canada and Denmark were able to resolve But question remains as to why the second trip to island by Danish military units Demonstrates escalation potential of even meaningless issues
Issue 3.2 The Canadian Northwest Passages Canadian/Russian position Internal Waters US/EU position International Strait Issue is over Control of Trans-Polar Shipping Issue is also over aircraft transit Canada-US Security Relationship
Canadian NWP
Polarstern 2010 Sovereignty and Lands Claim
Summary Mandatory Enforcement of NORDREG plus expected Russian new legislation on NSR Growing assertiveness of EU on NWP/NSR Coastal state control vs freedom of navigation
The Emerging Arctic Security Regime Circumpolar states have called for cooperation What will be the new international governance regime? Circumpolar states are building up their combat capable force for the Arctic New Equipment Ice and Combat Capable New Policies Unilateral concern New Training
Conclusion Geopolitics Concerns reduced immediately after end of Cold War New concerns are arising as Arctic is perceived/becoming more accessible Issues will be Maritime/Aerospace Issues will be understanding entry of new actors to the region NATO s role is not clear Europe and Canada are determining what their interests are in Arctic not Automatic that it will be aligned