DELIVERING THE NEXT ECONOMY The Central Role of Exports

DELIVERING THE NEXT ECONOMY The Central Role of Exports Metropolitan Policy Program at BROOKINGS NEI ExportNOW Conference, Wichita KS / June 2, 2011 1

8.4 million jobs lost in the recession Source: Brookings analysis of US Department of Labor data 2

1 in 10 people unemployed Source: US Department of Labor, November 2010 3

Unemployment in Kansas Remains High 8.8% 6.8% 8.9% 8.3% National Average Kansas Average Kansas City Wichita Source: BLS ( March 2011) 4

Domestic Consumption Will Not Lead Economic Recovery 5

We Need a New Growth Model 6

1 2 3 We need a vision for the next American economy 7

1 2 3 The next economy will be driven by metro areas 8

1 2 3 We must build the next economy by unleashing the stateʼs regional REGIONAL ENGINES engines 9

1 2 3 We need a vision for the next American economy 10

We Need to Rebalance the U.S. Economy Share of GDP Private Consumption Exports 70.1% 63.0% 57.8% 58.3% 10.1% 12.7% 22.4% 29.7% Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, 2010 1980 2008 1980 1980 2008 2008 1980 2008 U.S. G7U.S. (Excluding U.S.) G7 (Excluding U.S.) 12

U.S. Exports Lag Our Competition Share of GDP in Exports 13% 36% 35% 24% China Canada India 18% 15% United States Japan European Union Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, 2010 (2008 data) 13

Exporting Is an Unnatural Act U.S. Companies that export to more than one country Source: US Department of Commerce Press Release, July 12, 2010 14

The Locus of Economic Growth in the World Is Shifting 15

Economic Performance 2009-2010 Highest Performing Metros Lowest Performing Metros Source: Brookings/LSE, Global MetroMonitor, December 2010 16

Movement of Freight Is Compromised 17

Can we get back into the export game? 18

The U.S. Remains the Number One Exporter in the World 19

U.S. Service Trade $518 B $366 B $152 B Trade Surplus Service Imports Service Exports Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, International Transactions Accounts, 2008 20

Photo: Flickr/dockphotos 25

Our Competitors Have Embraced the Green Economy Clean Energy Investment 2009 $34.6 B Planned High Speed Rail Investment 2010 to 2020 $300 B $18.6 B $13 B U.S. China U.S. China Photo: Richard Fisher Source: Utah Foundation Research Report, High-Speed Rail Around the World, August 2010 Source: Pew, 2010 G-20 Clean Energy Factbook, 2009 data 26

We Are at the Cusp of an Historic Era of Technological Progress Self-Driving Vehicles Smart Homes Remote Health Care Photos: The New York Times, Microsoft 28

The U.S. Ranks Low in Science and Engineering Degrees Source: National Science Foundation 45th Share of BAs in Science and Engineering 29

The U.S. is Now Running a Trade Deficit in Advance Technology Products $331 billion $270 billion Exports Imports 1991 2008 Source: US Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics 30

Major Exporting Industries Pay Higher Wages $84,488 $77,879 $57,313 $57,476 $63,165 $45,563 National Average Machinery Business, Professional & Technical Services Transportation Equipment Chemicals Computer & Electronic Products Source: Brookings analysis of U.S Census Bureau, BLS, IRS, IIE and BEA data (2008) 32

A Low Carbon Economy Can Create Jobs at All Skill Levels Financiers Scientists and Engineers Entrepreneurs Laborers 33

The U.S. must get smart... fast 34

The Rate of Educational Attainment Is Lowest Among the Fastest Growing Populations Bachelorʼs Degree Attainment 50% 28% 31% 18% 13% United States Asians Non-Hispanic Whites African Americans Hispanics Source: US Census Bureau, 2008 American Community Survey 35

1 2 3 The next economy will be driven by metro areas 36

A Metro Area Is Defined by Its Economic Function Advanced Research Institutions Small and Medium Enterprises Large Companies Business Associations Skilled Labor Schools and Colleges Government 37

Metro Areas Hold the Bulk of the Country s Assets that Will Drive the Next Economy Top 100 Metros Share of U.S. Totals 66% 75% 75% 80% 82% 12% Land Population Source: Brookings, ExportNation, 2010 (2008 data) Service Exports Graduate Degrees Energy Engineering, Research and Consulting Jobs NIH/NSF Funding 38

Metro Areas Generate the Majority of GDP in 47 of the 50 States Source: Brookings analysis of US Bureau of Economic Analysis data 39

In Kansas, Six Metro Areas Drive the State s Economy Manhattan St. Joseph 69% 71% 55% Topeka Lawrence Kansas City Wichita Metro Share of KS State Population Metro Share of KS State GDP Kansas City & Wichita Share of KS State GDP Source: Census population estimates and Moodyʼs Analytics (2009 data) 40

Wichita Rank Wichita Share of Kansas State Exports Growth (Top 100 Metros, 2003-2008) 1st 32% 22% 27% 21% 20% Population GMP Service Exports Science & Engineering Employment Graduate Degree 22.3 percent Export Jobs (Top 100 Metros, 2008) 34th 71,147 Source: Brookings analysis of Census population estimates, ACS, Moodyʼs Analytics, BEA, and BLS (2009 data) 41

Kansas City Rank Kansas City Share of Kansas State Exports Growth (Top 100 Metros, 2003-2008) 63rd 30% 34% 28% 45% 39% 7.5 percent Export Jobs (Top 100 Metros, 2008) Population GMP Service Exports Science & Engineering Employment Graduate Degree 26th 77,465 Source: Brookings analysis of Census population estimates, ACS, Moodyʼs Analytics, BEA, and BLS (2009 data) 42

1 2 3 We must build the next economy by unleashing the stateʼs regional REGIONAL ENGINES engines 43

Exports as a Continuum of Interventions Innovative U.S. Products Freight & Infrastructure EXPORTS Leadership in Manufacturing Market Based Export Promotion Strategy Skills to Support Innovation 44

The Feds Must Set the Rules for Global Engagement and Involve All Agencies The Export Promotion Cabinet (14 federal agencies) The State Trade and Export Promotion Grant Programs 45

Boosting Exports Requires a Range of Interventions - State Exports Low Carbon Innovation Opportunity Invest in what matters Infrastructure Banks Export Promotion Manufacturing Innovation Funds Energy Innovation Hubs Community Colleges Reform for growth Taxes and Subsidies Governance Reform Multi-Municipal Collaboration 47

Reevaluate Wasteful Economic Development Subsidies 95% 56% Annual State Job Gains 42% 3% Business Relocations Expansion of Existing Businesses Birth of New Establishments Source: Jed Kolko, Business Relocation and Homegrown Jobs, (Sacramento: Public Policy Institute of California, September 2010) 48

Metro Areas Must Lead TRANSFORM ATION NORTHEAS T OHIO ATION INNOV MEETS ON TRATI S N O M DE PUGET SOUND Metro Business Plans First Round ACCELERATION MINNEAPOLIS- SAINT PAUL Metro Export Plans First Round 50

Metro Areas Must Lead Metro Business Plans From NEI to MEI First Round Metro Export Plans First Round 51

Determine Rationale Develop Vision Specify Metrics Key Coordinate Annual Players regional new in growth an and MEI existing in exports federal, state and local and Goals EXPORT of Success export service providers/programs through a Chamber Annual To secure regional or and Metropolitan increase growth in quality export Trade jobs jobs Associations driven by export seamless, growth regional export network Banks Annual and regional advisory growth PLAN firms in the number of firms that Focus on export ready firms Detail Specify Federal export To double Export exports Assistance over the Center next five in the years metro area Operation Strategies Focus State Growth To foster Export proactive in a number more Promotion marketing globally-fluent, of new Program markets efforts export companies on 12 select Implications oriented enter industry targets Port/airport business culture, authorities particularly Create among SMEs Growth in number of firms in the supply chain that Focus Universities benefit on from Pacific increased Rim Products exports and Services 52

DELIVERING THE NEXT ECONOMY The Central Role of Exports Metropolitan Policy Program at BROOKINGS NEI ExportNOW Conference, Wichita KS / June 2, 2011 53