Questions and Answers Florida Department of Economic Opportunity Employment and Unemployment Data Release July 2018 (Released August 17, 2018) 1. What are the current Florida labor statistics and what changes are there over the month and over the year? Unemployment Rates Florida s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for July 2018 was 3.7 percent. This represented 383,000 jobless out of a labor force of 10,246,000. Florida s unemployment rate was down 0.4 percentage point from the July 2017 rate of 4.1 percent. As of July 2018, Florida's unemployment rate has declined or held steady over the year for 94 consecutive months. Florida s July 2018 unemployment rate was down 0.1 percentage point from the June 2018 rate. Note that the number unemployed is not the same as the number of individuals receiving Reemployment Assistance (RA) benefits. The definition of unemployed is those that are without a job, but actively seeking work. A person seeking work is considered unemployed even if they never held a job before. Collecting RA is not a requirement for being counted as unemployed. Job Counts Total nonagricultural employment in Florida was 8,800,700 in July 2018, a gain of 210,600 jobs over the year (+2.5 percent). In July 2018, private-sector employment was 7,694,900, a gain of 211,400 jobs over the year (+2.8 percent). o In May 2015, total nonagricultural employment at 8,065,100 surpassed the prerecession peak employment level of 8,051,300 jobs reached in March 2007. o In March 2015, private sector employment at 6,938,700 surpassed the prerecession peak employment level of 6,933,600 jobs reached in March 2007. Florida s over-the-year job growth rate has been positive every month since August 2010, with the exception of September 2017, when Florida lost jobs due to the hurricane. Prior to August 2010, the state had been losing jobs for over three years and reached a low point of -7.0 percent in March and April 2009. Total nonagricultural employment increased by 27,400 jobs (+0.3 percent) over the month. Florida s private-sector jobs increased by 26,300 jobs over the month (+0.3 percent). 1
2. What industries in Florida experienced job growth over the year? In Florida, eight major industries experienced positive over-the-year job growth in July 2018: Leisure and hospitality gained 50,400 jobs ($24,953 avg. annual wage) Food services and drinking places (+49,600 jobs) Construction gained 38,200 jobs ($49,257 avg. annual wage) Specialty trade contractors (+22,300 jobs) Education and health services gained 33,700 jobs ($49,451 avg. annual wage) Ambulatory health care services (+10,800 jobs) Elementary and secondary schools (+9,600 jobs) Hospitals (+9,400 jobs) Professional and business services gained 28,500 jobs ($58,652 avg. annual wage) Computer systems design and related (+5,800 jobs) Business support services (+5,300 jobs) Accounting, tax preparation, and bookkeeping (+4,800 jobs) Trade, transportation, and utilities gained 21,700 jobs ($43,229 avg. annual wage) Transportation and warehousing (+13,900 jobs) Financial activities gained 16,300 jobs ($72,713 avg. annual wage) Real estate (+8,900 jobs) Insurance carriers and related activities (+3,900 jobs) Manufacturing gained 15,000 jobs ($59,395 avg. annual wage) Fabricated metal product manufacturing (+3,400 jobs) Aerospace product and parts manufacturing (+600 jobs) Chemical manufacturing (+400 jobs) Beverage and tobacco product manufacturing (+200 jobs) Other services gained 8,700 jobs ($35,313 avg. annual wage) Membership associations and organizations (+7,800 jobs) 3. What industries in Florida lost jobs over the year? In Florida, two major industries experienced job losses in July 2018: Information lost 1,200 jobs ($80,304 avg. annual wage) Telecommunications (-1,300 jobs) Government lost 800 jobs ($53,257 avg. annual wage) State government (-900 jobs) 2
4. How do Florida s labor statistics compare to the nation? Florida s July 2018 unemployment rate of 3.7 percent was 0.2 percentage point below the national rate of 3.9 percent. Florida s July 2018 private-sector over-the-year rate of job growth was +2.8 percent, which was 0.9 percentage point above the national job growth rate of +1.9 percent. Before September 2017, Florida s private sector over-the-year job growth rate had exceeded the Nation s since April 2012. 5. How has Florida s economy performed since the last peak of Florida s economic activity? Florida s unemployment rate was 3.1 percent in March 2006 (the lowest unemployment rate in more than thirty years). The state s unemployment rate peaked at 11.3 percent in January 2010 and has since improved to 3.7 percent in July 2018. Florida s private-sector over-the-year job growth rate peaked in September 2005 at +5.7 percent, declined to -8.1 percent in April 2009, and is at +2.8 percent in July 2018. Florida s private-sector employment surpassed the prerecession peak employment level (6,933,600 in March 2007) in March 2015 with 6,938,700 jobs. Total nonagricultural employment in Florida reached a peak employment level of 8,051,300 jobs in March 2007. In December 2009, Florida reached a low point, down 922,800 jobs (-11.5 percent) from the peak. As of July 2018, Florida employment was 8,800,700 jobs, 749,400 jobs (+9.3 percent) above the previous peak. Construction lost more jobs in the recent recession than any other industry. Construction employment peaked in June 2006 with 691,900 jobs and dropped to 332,800 jobs in June 2011, losing 359,100 jobs or 51.9 percent. Construction employment has risen to 544,700 jobs as of July 2018, an increase of 211,900 jobs (+63.7 percent) from the low point. Florida s labor demand, measured by online advertised vacancies, reached a pre-recession peak of 256,976 in January 2006. Labor demand declined by 45.4 percent during the recession and bottomed out in April 2009 at 140,283 ads. As of July 2018, labor demand has increased by 98,641 openings (+70.3 percent) from the low point for a total of 238,924. In July 2018, there were 383,000 unemployed Floridians and 238,924 advertised job openings in the state (Help Wanted OnLine), a ratio of 1.6 job seekers to every advertised job. This is a great improvement from the high ratio of 6.7 job seekers for every advertised opening reached in May and June of 2009. The lowest pre-recession ratio was 1.1 job seekers to every advertised job, in December 2005 and January 2006. Florida s real gross domestic product annual growth rate peaked in 2005 at +6.4 percent, declined to -5.5 percent in 2009, and since has improved to +2.2 percent in 2017. 3
Florida s consumer sentiment index peaked in August 2000 with an index value of 111, declined to 59 in June 2008, and has since improved to 99.8 in July 2018. Index values greater than 100 mean more optimism than in the base year (1966). 6. How have Florida s metro area economies performed since this time last year? 4
7. How does seasonality affect labor statistics statewide and by local area? Monthly employment and unemployment rates at the state and local levels may have sharp fluctuations due to seasonal events that follow a somewhat regular pattern each year. Seasonal events include tourism, agricultural harvests, holidays, and the opening and closings of schools. The effects these events have on labor statistics can be eliminated through seasonal adjustment, a statistical technique that smooths the seasonal impacts and makes it easier to observe underlying trends. Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate estimates are available for Florida on a monthly basis, and metropolitan areas on a lagged basis, but are not available for all counties. Seasonally adjusted nonagricultural employment is available for Florida by industry and for selected metro areas at the total level only. Because seasonally adjusted numbers are not uniformly available, an over-the-year comparison for metro area labor statistics is therefore preferable to an over-the-month comparison. Industries with seasonal declines in employment in Florida in July 2018 included agriculture, public and private education, and tourism. Most elementary and secondary schools were not in session in July. Tourism is high in the northern counties and lower in the southern counties during July. 5
8. What are the signs of improvement in Florida s economic conditions? Florida s unemployment rate declined by 0.1 percentage point over the month in July 2018. Florida s unemployment rate declined by 0.4 percentage point over the year in July 2018. The current unemployment rate is down 7.6 percentage points from the last recession peak rate of 11.3 percent reached in January 2010. With the exception of September 2017, Florida has gained jobs over the year since August 2010 (95 of the past 96 months). Prior to September 2017, Florida s annual job growth rate exceeded the Nation s since May 2012 (74 of the past 75 months). In July 2018, 22 out of 24 metro areas in the state had over-the-year job gains. Florida housing foreclosures were 3,793 in March 2018 (latest data available). Foreclosures were down 1,335 (-26.0 percent) over the year. Florida s median home price was up 6.1 percent over the year in June 2018 (latest data available). Florida building permits for one-unit structures were up 676 (+9.4 percent) compared to the same month a year ago in June 2018 (latest data available). June 2018 (latest data available) sales tax collections were up 4.6 percent compared to a year ago. Sales tax collections have been above the previous peak (June 2006) since June 2014. An estimated 116.5 million visitors came to Florida in 2017, an increase of 3.6 percent over 2016. During the first quarter of 2018, a record 33.2 million (7.4 percent increase over the year) tourists visited Florida. Florida s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2017 was up 2.2 percent from 2016. 6
9. What are the categories of unemployed individuals? Job losers are those on layoff or termination seeking work; job leavers are those that voluntarily leave a job and then seek work; re-entrants are those that left the labor force and have rejoined to seek work; and new entrants are those that enter the labor market for the first time seeking work. A decreasing percentage of job losers as compared to the other categories can be interpreted as a sign of an improving economy. National Monthly Unemployed persons by reason for unemployment (as a percent of total unemployed), July 2018 for the United States (seasonally adjusted): Job losers 48.3% (down from 48.7% a year ago) Job leavers 13.5% (up from 11.0% a year ago) Reentrants 28.8% (down from 30.2% a year ago) New entrants 9.5% (down from 10.1% a year ago) Florida 12-Month Moving Average Unemployed persons by reason for unemployment (as a percent of total unemployed), 12- month average ending July 2018 for Florida (not seasonally adjusted): Job losers 46.9% (up from 46.1% a year ago) Job leavers 12.8% (down from 13.5% a year ago) Reentrants 28.6% (unchanged from a year ago) New entrants 11.6% (down from 11.9% a year ago) 10. What are the unemployment rates based on education levels? Unemployment rates by educational attainment, July 2018 for the United States (seasonally adjusted, labor force members aged 25 and older): Less than a high school diploma 5.1% High school graduates, no college 4.0% Some college or associate degree 3.2% Bachelor s degree and higher 2.2% Unemployment rates by educational attainment, 12-month average ending July 2018 for Florida (not seasonally adjusted, labor force members aged 25 and older): Less than a high school diploma 5.0% High school graduates, no college 3.8% Some college or associate degree 3.4% Bachelor s degree and higher 2.2% 7
11. What was the duration of unemployment in Florida? Note: This includes all the unemployed/job seekers, not just the number of people receiving Reemployment Assistance benefits. Duration of unemployment for Florida (12-month average ending July 2018): Duration Unemployed Percent of Total Total: 100 Less than 5 weeks 32.1 (up from 28.5 a year ago) 5 to 14 weeks 27.8 (up from 26.9 a year ago) 15 to 26 weeks 15.3 (up from 13.2 a year ago) 27 to 51 weeks 8.1 (down from 8.5 a year ago) 52 weeks (1 year) and over 16.8 (down from 23.0 a year ago) Average weeks of unemployment: 26.5 (down from 32.0 weeks a year ago) (Long-term unemployed (27 weeks and over) is the sum of 8.1 and 16.8, which is 24.9 percent, down 6.6 percentage points from a year ago.) 12. What was the full-time and part-time status of the employed? National-Monthly Full-time and part-time status of the employed (as a percent of total employed), July 2018 for the United States (seasonally adjusted): Full-time 82.7% (up from 82.0% a year ago) Voluntary part-time 13.8% (unchanged from a year ago) Part-time for economic reasons 2.9% (down from 3.4% a year ago) Part-time but not at work 0.5% (down from 0.7% a year ago) Florida 12-month Moving Average Full-time and part-time status for the employed (as a percent of total employed), 12-month average ending July 2018 for Florida (not seasonally adjusted): Full-time 83.2% (unchanged from a year ago) Voluntary part-time 12.8% (up from 12.2% a year ago) Part-time for economic reasons 2.8% (down from 3.8% a year ago) Part-time but not at work 1.2% (up from 0.8% a year ago) 8
13. What was the latest Florida Consumer Sentiment Index? The Florida Consumer Sentiment Index level was 99.8 in July 2018, up 2.1 points from July 2017 (up 2.1 points over the month). Perceptions of personal finances now compared to a year ago increased 5.2 points from 88.2 to 93.4 (up 2.2 points over the month), while expectations of personal finances a year from now increased 2.6 points over the year to 106.4 (up 3.5 points over the month). Expectations of U.S. economic conditions over the next year decreased 1.0 point over the year (down 0.3 points over the month) to 97.1, while expectations of U.S. economic conditions over the next five years increased 1.4 points over the year (up 3.5 points over the month) to 97.2. Perceptions as to whether it is a good time to buy big ticket consumer items increased 2.1 points over the year (up 1.9 points over the month) to 104.9. 14. What were the top jobs in demand according to The Conference Board, Help-Wanted OnLine data series? Florida job postings compiled by the Help Wanted OnLine data series totaled 238,924 job ads (seasonally adjusted) in July 2018. July job demand represented a decrease of 1,086 job ads (-0.5 percent) over the year from the 240,010 jobs ads in July 2017. Job ads in Florida increased over the month by 6,564 ads (+2.8 percent). Nationally, demand increased by 43,942 job ads (+1.0 percent) over the year and increased by 170,789 ads (+3.8 percent) in July compared to the previous month. Top 20 Advertised Occupations for Florida, Online Ads Online Ads Not Seasonally Adjusted July-2018 July-2017 Registered Nurses 11,231 14,547 Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers 6,771 5,157 Retail Salespersons 6,492 6,746 First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers 5,549 7,299 Customer Service Representatives 5,121 4,802 First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers 4,176 4,448 Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 3,990 4,156 Software Developers, Applications 3,664 3,196 First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers 3,508 4,289 Computer User Support Specialists 3,098 3,390 Medical and Health Services Managers 2,945 2,907 Accountants 2,822 3,105 Computer Systems Analysts 2,802 2,874 Network and Computer Systems Administrators 2,648 2,778 Web Developers 2,517 2,428 Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks 2,498 2,823 Security Guards 2,479 2,638 Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 2,347 2,590 Executive Secretaries and Executive Administrative Assistants 2,162 2,267 Nursing Assistants 2,112 2,104 Source: The Conference Board, Help Wanted OnLine, prepared by the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Bureau of Labor Market Statistics. 9
15. What did housing indicators show for Florida? Real Property Mortgage Foreclosures (State Courts) Florida housing foreclosures were 3,793 in March 2018 (latest data available). Foreclosures were down 1,335 (-26.0 percent) over the year. Note: Foreclosure filings reported by the Office of the State Courts Administrator do not include default notices, scheduled auctions, or bank repossessions. Building Permits for 1-Unit Structures Florida building permits were 7,899 in June 2018 (latest data available), up 676 (+9.4 percent) over the year. Median Existing-Single Family Home Price The Florida median home price was $260,000 in June 2018 (latest data available), up $15,000 (+6.1 percent) over the year. 16. What is Florida s current level of initial claims for Reemployment Assistance (RA)? Florida had 31,589 initial claims for RA in July 2018. This was a decrease of 6.8 percent from the previous year. Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Reemployment Assistance Program. 10
17. What is Florida s Gross Domestic Product (GDP)? Florida s real GDP in 2017 was $836.1 billion ($967.3 billion current-dollars), up 2.2 percent from 2016, and slower than the national growth rate of 2.3 percent. Comparatively, real GDP was $818.2 billion in 2016, up 2.6 percent from 2015, and faster than the U.S. growth rate of 1.5 percent in 2016. Among the 10 largest states, Florida had the 6th fastest growth rate in real GDP, behind California (3.0 percent); Georgia (2.7 percent); Texas (2.6 percent); Michigan (2.3 percent); and North Carolina (2.3 percent). Florida had the 4th largest real GDP in the nation. California had the highest real GDP at $2.4 trillion while Vermont had the lowest at $28 billion. Florida had the 17th fastest annual growth rate in real GDP (+2.2 percent) in 2017, while Washington had the fastest (+4.4 percent). Louisiana ranked 50th at -0.2 percent. Florida's 2017 per capita real GDP of $39,842 ranked 41st in the nation, 24.1 percent below the national average of $52,488. Per capita real GDP ranged from a high of $66,500 in Massachusetts, to a low of $32,447 in Mississippi. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11
18. What are the annual Florida unemployment rates by age, gender, and race; and Veterans unemployment rates? Latest Unemployment Rates by Age, Gender, and Race Florida 2017 annual average unemployment rates from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey: o Unemployment rates by age: 16 to 19 years 16.3 percent 20 to 24 years 6.4 percent 25 to 34 years 4.1 percent 35 to 44 years 3.0 percent 45 to 54 years 3.2 percent 55 to 64 years 3.4 percent 65 years and over 3.9 percent o Unemployment rates by gender: Male 3.7 percent Female 4.5 percent o Unemployment rates by race and ethnicity: White 3.5 percent Black 6.8 percent Hispanic 4.3 percent Latest Florida and U.S. Veterans Unemployment Rates, 2017 Current Population Survey (CPS) Florida s unemployment rate for Veterans (2.9 percent) was lower than the national rate (3.7 percent), and lower than the rate for nonveterans (4.0 percent). Florida and the United States Employment Status by Veteran Status Universe: Civilian non-institutionalized population 18 years and over 2017 CPS Annual Averages, Not Seasonally Adjusted Veterans Nonveterans FLORIDA Total population, 18 years and over 1,603,000 14,799,000 In labor force 734,000 9,284,000 Employed 713,000 8,915,000 Unemployed 21,000 369,000 Unemployment rate 2.9% 4.0% U.S. Total population, 18 years and over 20,387,000 225,619,000 In labor force 10,125,000 147,957,000 Employed 9,755,000 141,692,000 Unemployed 370,000 6,265,000 Unemployment rate 3.7% 4.2% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, 2017. 12
19. What were the latest Florida export statistics in goods and services? In June 2018 (latest data available), exports of goods originating from Florida were $4.95 billion, an increase of 9.0 percent from $4.54 billion in June 2017, not seasonally adjusted. 20. What services does the workforce system provide to job seekers and employers? For Florida s job seekers, programs and services offered include: Career Centers Florida s nearly 90 Career Centers, locally operated by Local Workforce Development Boards, provide local access to job placement services, local workforce information, and job training opportunities. Follow this link for a map of Florida Career Centers: http://www.floridajobs.org/onestop/onestopdir/ Employ Florida Marketplace - The Employ Florida Marketplace Online Job Bank provides 24/7 access to a wide variety of local, state, and national job openings: http://www.employflorida.com/ Mobile Career Centers Florida s Mobile Career Centers allow citizens in rural areas, at job fairs, and during emergency situations to access critical workforce information and services: http://www.floridajobs.org/workforce-board-resources/programs-and-resources/mobile-career-center For Florida s businesses, programs and services offered include: Employ Florida Marketplace - The Employ Florida Marketplace Online Job Bank provides businesses with exposure to thousands of potential employees with a vast array of skills, talents, and experience: http://www.employflorida.com/ Labor Market Information The Department of Economic Opportunity s Bureau of Labor Market Statistics produces data, such as employment, unemployment, and wage information that assist workforce/economic development, education, employers, and job seekers. These statistics assist with economic analysis, business recruitment, career counseling, and other critical business decision-making: http://www.floridajobs.org/labor-market-information Incumbent and Employed Worker Training - Incumbent and Employed Worker Training programs increase opportunities for workers who acquire new skills by reimbursing Florida s businesses for a portion of the cost of training their employees: http://careersourceflorida.com/employer-training-grants/incumbent-worker-training-grants/incumbent-workertraining-grant-faq/ Work Opportunity Tax Credit - The Work Opportunity Tax Credit program offers a financial incentive to private, for-profit employers to hire individuals from certain targeted groups, who experience high rates of unemployment due to a variety of employment barriers: http://www.floridajobs.org/business-growth-and-partnerships/for-employers/find-tax-credit-and-incentiveprograms/work-opportunity-tax-credit-program For more information on these and other Department of Economic Opportunity programs, go to: http://www.floridajobs.org/ 13