Armed Forces And Government Spending

Armed Forces And Government Spending Armed Forces South Africa maintains an allvolunteer set of armed forces, which represents the best-equipped and most advanced military on the African continent. Its total active strength in 2007 was 62,344, although this figure includes 6,000 South African Military Health Service (SAMHS) personnel (but not the SAMHS estimated 17,000 civilian employees). The army has an estimated strength of 41,350, the navy 5,801 and the air force Source: IISS 9,183. South Africa maintains no paramilitary forces. Historical Strength Over the past decade, South Africa has experienced sharp fluctuations in its troop numbers, closely mirroring its turbulent political history. Overall, the force level has declined by approximately 28% since 1990, but this belies the sharp increase that occurred in the middle of the 1990s as South Africa was transformed into a democracy. Following apartheid, the government was keen to wholly reform the military from an all-white e/f = estimate/forecast. Source: IISS organisation to an inclusive meritocratic system. To do so, a massive influx of black recruits was needed, along with the retirement of large swathes of the white troops. Further, given an increase in violent crime following the elections, South Africa required a stable security environment enforced by a strong military. The result was an increase of some 75% between 1994 and 1995 in troop numbers, entirely within the army. Since then, numbers have moderated, with decreases over the decade occurring largely within the army, which lost some 40% of its personnel between 1990 and 2003. 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 South Africa s Active Armed Forces 2008 (total: 62,334) Navy 9% 0 South Africa s Military Personnel 2001-2013 2001 2002 Air Force 15% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Army 66% 2008e 2009f SAMHS 10% 2010f 2011f 2012f Army Navy Air force SAMHS 2013f Business Monitor International Ltd Page 22

New Role For The SANDF In recent years, South Africa s military has undergone significant restructuring, with the consequent loss of over 50% of all armed forces personnel. Although largely treasury-driven, this rationalisation programme has been justified by reference to a new security environment. A greater role for the SANDF in regional intervention and peacekeeping is envisaged, requiring a slimmed-down, highly mobile and flexible force. Roughly 1,700 troops have been deployed internally in support of the police force, primarily along the country s long land borders, to meet the threat from immigration and trafficking. In response to funding difficulties, this support role looks likely to be reduced significantly over the next few years as external deployments increase. Acquisitions The new sheriff role being played by South Africa has led to calls from some quarters for a new defence review. The last review was conducted over five years ago, and did not acknowledge the interventionist role to be played by the SANDF. Now that the African Union s (AU) Peace and Security Council is operational, many within the military believe that a root-and-branch review of the structure, size and capability of the SANDF is long overdue. These large deployments are putting an undoubted strain on the SANDF, whose operational costs have been considerably higher than the funding provided. The bulk of the acquisition budget has been firmly focused on the major procurement deal struck in 1999 for four MEKO-class A-200 patrol corvettes, three Class 209 Type-1400 submarines, 30 Agusta A-109M light utility helicopters, 28 Gripen fighters and 24 Hawk training aircraft. Worth US$4.8bn, this represented the largest arms deal ever struck by South Africa, and was hoped by many to represent a turnaround in the industry s fortunes (mainly through the defence industrial participation programme). HIV/AIDS In the middle of the present decade a number of successive budgets increased the training funds for the SANDF. This represents the continued modernisation programme being undertaken, and many argue that this money will be better spent than the funds for big ticket procurement, given the desire to operate a rapid reaction-style armed force. It is unclear how the submarines and the stealth features of the corvettes fit into this wider strategic picture, built around a small core of highly trained and highly equipped troops capable of insertion into regional conflicts under a multilateral mandate. Suspicions have been raised that industry interests, and not strategic requirements, were the primary driver for the procurement package. A major issue facing the SANDF is the prevalence of HIV/AIDS. Current estimates claim that some 23% of its personnel are infected. The Chemical and Biological Arms Control Institute (CBACI) has pinpointed several South African military units with infection rates as high as 90%. Although militaries Business Monitor International Ltd Page 23

traditionally have greater incidences of sexually transmitted diseases than their representative civilian populations, the figures in this case are alarming. Army Vision 2020 On March 7, 2006, details of the future direction of the South African Army were announced. Known as Army Vision 2020, the project deals with the refocusing and reorganising of the South African Army, outlining its most likely operational environment for the medium-term and how it intends to meet those demands. Based on the government s policy of engaging with Africa, Vision 2020 calls for:! An increased expeditionary capability to participate in peace support operations and protect national interests outside of the state;! A response to the growing complexity of war and complex human factors; and! A readiness of joint operations with other states, or between agencies. To meet these demands the army is likely to undergo a number of structural changes, including the establishment of a number of divisions and brigades to:! Form the core conventional combat capability a Mechanised Division;! Provide force in peace support operations a Motorised Division;! Provide airborne and sea-landed capabilities for rapid deployment operations a Special Operations Brigade;! Carry out construction under developmental peacekeeping missions a Works Regiment. International Deployments South African forces are deployed to a number of foreign countries, largely on peace support missions. The military s ongoing activities conform to an expeditionary vision. Its operations are in Burundi with 862 troops serving under UN Operation in Burundi (ONUB formerly an AU mission in 2003), and under UN mandates in the Democratic Republic of Congo (MONUC), where some 1,186 personnel are deployed, and small deployments in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) and Sudan (UNMIS). South Africa Business Monitor International Ltd Page 24

also contributes troops to the AU s missions in Ethiopia and Eritrea (two personnel) and in Sudan (39 observers with AUMIS). The South African Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Aziz Pahad, has said that the government would be willing to provide troops as part of an AU operation to remove and disarm Rwandan Hutu guerrillas in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The army is already stretched with its commitments in Burundi, Darfur and the DRC. There is a worrying mismatch between defence funding and defence commitments, aggravated by South Africa s expanding regional security role. These are affecting the capability of the South African army. Table: South African Foreign Deployments Country of deployment Strength of deployment Mission Burundi 862 ONUB (incl. three observers) DR Congo 1,186 MONUC (incl. 20 observers) Ethiopia/Eritrea 2 AU OLMEE Ethiopia/Eritrea 5 UNMEE observers Sudan 39 AUMIS observers Sudan 1 UNMIS Source: BMI Weapons Of Mass Destruction South Africa is one of only a few countries to have publicly denounced and halted its weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programmes. South Africa does not possess any offensive nuclear delivery systems or operational nuclear warheads. The country did possess this capability during the apartheid regime, although the early 1990s saw unilateral disarmament as the country moved towards democracy. In total, South Africa had manufactured six air-deliverable nuclear weapons before the exposure of the programme and its dismantling, and the subsequent accession to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) on July 10, 1991. It is also a member of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). South Africa is reported (with scepticism in some quarters) to have dismantled both its biological and chemical weapons capability. It did, however, pursue research programmes in both types of WMD during the apartheid era, although it is not clear whether any chemical or biological agents were weaponised. As with the nuclear programme, chemical and biological research was halted as the country moved towards democracy. South Africa has since become a member of the corresponding international conventions, Business Monitor International Ltd Page 25

which outlaw the production, stockpiling and use of such weapons (the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention, which it signed on April 10, 1972, and the Chemical Weapons Convention, which it signed on January 13, 1993). Similarly, South Africa does not currently possess a ballistic missile programme, although it has previously built short-range tactical missiles and test-launched a medium-range ballistic missile in 1989. Evidence suggests close collaboration with Israel in its missile programme, especially given the close similarity between the 1989 rocket and Israel s Jericho II missile. However, following US pressure and sanctions, South Africa terminated its space launch vehicle programme in 1993. The country is a member of the supply-side Missile Technology Control Regime, which it joined in September 1995. Business Monitor International Ltd Page 26