Security Outlook of the Asia Pacific Countries and Its Implications for the Defense Sector The National Institute for Defense Studies, Japan NIDS JOINT RESEARCH SERIES No. 15
Published by: The National Institute for Defense Studies 5-1, Ichigaya-Honmuracho, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 162-8808, Japan Phone: +81-3-3260-3011 Fax: +81-3-3260-3034 www.nids.go.jp planning@nids.go.jp ISBN: 978-4-86482-056-1 The views expressed in this publication are solely of the authors, and do not necessarily represent those of the institutions or governments of the authors. Copyright 2017 The National Institute for Defense Studies All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in retrieval system or be transmitted in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise) without the written permission from the publisher. Edited in collaboration with Urban Connections
Contents CHAPTER 1... 7 Cambodia s Strategic and Security Situation and Prospects: Implications for Defense Policy Veasna Var Introduction...7 Overview of Cambodia s Current Political Landscape...10 Cambodia between the US and China s Strategic Competition...12 Cambodia s Dilemma at Sea: Between China and ASEAN...18 Implications for the Defense Sector...21 Prospects for Regional Cooperation: Some Concluding Thoughts...28 CHAPTER 2... 31 Indonesia s Security and Defense Outlook: Evolving Low-Intensity Threats and Recalibrated Countermeasures Iis Gindarsah Introduction...31 Low-level Local Insurgencies...31 Renewed Threats of Home-grown Terrorism...33 Low-Intensity Threats to Maritime Security...35 Progresses of Military Modernization...37 New Defense White Paper...40 Concluding Remarks...41 CHAPTER 3... 43 Myanmar Security Trend and Outlook: Tatmadaw in a New Political Environment Tin Maung Maung Than Introduction...43 The fighting continues...44 Tatmadaw and peace...49 Tatmadaw s other activities...50 Tatmadaw command and force modernization...54 Concluding Remarks...59
CHAPTER 4... 61 Security Challenges for Malaysia: Defending the Nation State Elina Noor Preface...62 Territorial incursions...63 Radicalisation and the threat of violent extremism...67 Nation-building and national integration...69 Summary and recommendations...70 CHAPTER 5... 73 The Philippines Security Outlook 2016: Dramatic Changes, Persistent Challenges, and Uncertain Prospects Aries A. Arugay Introduction...73 Security Challenges: Drugs, Criminality, and Terrorism...75 Military Re-Reorientation: Policy Shifts and Continuities...79 Duterte s Foreign and Security Policy Chessboard(s): The Philippines as a Small Power...81 More Change is Coming? Prospects for Security Cooperation...84 CHAPTER 6... 87 Singapore s Security Outlook in 2016: High and Low Points LAM Peng Er Introduction...87 End of a special relationship with China?...88 Singapore s security concern: Terrorism...94 Singapore s international contributions to regional security...94 Singapore s 2016 defence budget and new weapon acquisitions...95 Epilogue...96 CHAPTER 7... 97 Thailand After King Bhumibol: Foreign and Security Policy Implications Thitinan Pongsudhirak Introduction...97 The end of Thailand s glorious reign...98 Thailand s roadmap going forward...100 President Trump and the geopolitics of Southeast Asia...101 Thailand Security Outlook in the Regional Mix...104
CHAPTER 8... 107 Challenges and Opportunities in Vietnam-US relationships: A Vietnam Perspective Tran Truong Thuy CHAPTER 9... 115 China s Mounting Domestic and International Challenges in 2017 You Ji Introduction...115 The Latest Round of PLA Reforms...115 Worsening Sino-US relations under the New President of America...120 The Korean Challenge...123 The THAAD challenge...125 Conclusion...126 CHAPTER 10... 129 The United States in 2016: Security Developments & Implications for Defense Policy, the Security Sector and Asia-Pacific Security Cooperation/ Coordination Satu Limaye Major Security Policy Developments for the United States in 2016...129 Short and Mid-to-Long Term Implications for U.S. Defense Policy & Defense Sector...134 Future Prospects for Regional Security Policy Cooperation and Coordination...135 CHAPTER 11... 137 Japan s Security Challenges: North Korea, China, and Peacekeeping Operations Ken Ohnishi Introduction...137 East Asia: Traditional Challenges...137 Peacekeeping Operations: New Challenges...143 Conclusion...145 Contributors... 147