A 2002/9590 A Tragedy of Arms Military and Security Developments in the Maghreb ANTHONY H. GORDESMAN Westport, Connecticut London
Contents Acknowledgments xi 1 Introduction to a Tragedy 1 ARMS AND THE MAGHREB 3 RECENT FORCE TRENDS 5 ECONOMICS AND MILITARY SPENDING 12 FUTURE PATTERNS IN MILITARY DEVELOPMENT 20 SIZE, MILITARY FORCES, AND DEMOGRAPHICS OF THE MAGHREB STATES 21 CURRENT TRENDS IN MILITARY EXPENDITURES, ARMS IMPORTS, AND MILITARY ADVISORY EFFORTS 24 MILITARY EXPENDITURES 24 ARMS IMPORTS TO THE MAGHREB 28 ARMS SUPPLIERS TO THE MAGHREB AND THE QUALITY OF ADVISORY EFFORTS 29 MAJOR TRENDS IN MAGHREB MILITARY FORCES 35 2 Morocco 55 MOROCCO'S RISE AS A POWER ' 56 TENSIONS WITH ALGERIA 57 THE STRUGGLE FOR THE WESTERN SAHARA 58 The Early Conflict and the Roles of Mauritania and Algeria 60 Morocco Fights On Alone 60
viii Contents The War Shifts in Morocco's Favor De Facto Moroccan Victory The Never-Occurring Vote The Status of the Western Sahara THE POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC BACKGROUND SHAPING MOROCCO'S MILITARY FORCES 69 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN MOROCCO 74 MOROCCO'S DEFENSE SPENDING AND ARMS IMPORTS, 79 Trends in Military Spending 79 Trends in Arms Imports 82 MOROCCO'S MILITARY DEVELOPMENTS AND FORCE SIZE 84 MOROCCAN ARMED FORCES 88 MOROCCAN MILITARY MANPOWER 89 THE MOROCCAN ARMY 90 THE MOROCCAN NAVY 95 THE MOROCCAN AIR FORCE 97 MOROCCAN PARAMILITARY AND SECURITY FORCES 99 SECURITY, MILITARY FORCES, AND REGIONAL STABILITY 105 3 Algeria 107 THE MILITARY POLITICS OF ALGERIA 108 The Impact of War with France 108 "An Army with a Country " 109 A Growing Economic Crisis 110 Foreign Relations After Independence 110 Benjedid 's Failed Political and Economic Reform 112 The Army's 1992 Coup 116 The Boudiaf Fiasco 117 Zeroualand "Democracy" Give Way to "the Power" 118 New Political Barriers to Islamic and Berber Parties 120 Zeroual Announces He Will Step Down 121 Bouteflika Makes Another Attempt at Reform and Political Liberalization 123 Uncertain Progress, Continuing War 125 Progress and Non-Progress During 1998 128 The Amnesty Deadline of January 13, 2000 130 Prospects After the Amnesty 132 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS AND SECURITY IN ALGERIA 133 Uncertain and Faltering Reform 133 Economics and Islamic Extremism 138 Algerian Military Expenditures and Arms Sales 139 ALGERIA'S MILITARY DEVELOPMENTS AND FORCE SIZE 144 ALGERIAN ARMED FORCES 145
Contents ix ALGERIAN MILITARY MANPOWER 151 THE ALGERIAN ARMY 152 THE ALGERIAN AIR FORCE 155 THE ALGERIAN NAVY 157 ALGERIAN PROBLEMS WITH TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER 159 PARAMILITARY FORCES AND INTERNAL SECURITY 159 The Role of the Government's Security Forces 160 The Role of the Islamic Extremists and Armed Groups 163 THE MILITARY AND ENERGY SECURITY 168 Oil Reserves, Production, and Pipeline Security 169 Gas Reserves, Production, and Pipeline Security 171 ALGERIA AND WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION 173 SECURITY, MILITARY FORCES, AND REGIONAL STABILITY 175 Libya 179 LIBYA' S STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE 180 LIBYA' S MILITARY DEVELOPMENT AND THE WAR WITH CHAD 180 LIBYAN CLASHES WITH US FORCES 185 THE LOCKERBIE BOMBING AND SANCTIONS 186 LIBYA AND SANCTIONS 188 OTHER CLASHES AND QUARRELS 190 LIBYA' S INTERNAL SECURITY 193 ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT 195 Wasting the Rewards of the Oil Boom 196 Crippling the Private Sector in the Mid-1990s 196 Structural Problems and the Great Man-Made River 197 Sanctions 198 The Oil Crash of 1997-1998 and the Recovery of 1999 199 The Government Crashes in March 2000 201 Image and Economics in 2001 201 OIL AND ENERGY SECURITY IN LIBYA 202 LIBYAN MILITARY SPENDING 206 LIBYAN ARMS TRANSFERS 206 LIBYAN MILITARY DEVELOPMENTS AND FORCE SIZE 211 LIBYAN ARMED FORCES 216 LIBYAN MILITARY MANPOWER 217 THE LIBYAN ARMY -. 220 THE LIBYAN NAVY 223 THE LIBYAN AIR FORCE 226 LIBYAN LAND-BASED AIR DEFENSES 229
x Contents THE WORLD' S LARGEST MILITARY PARKING LOT 230 LIBYA' S PARAMILITARY AND SECURITY FORCES 232 INTELLIGENCE AND TERRORIST ACTIVITIES 235 LIBYA AND WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION 236 Libyan Delivery Systems 236 Libyan Chemical Warfare Programs, 238 Libyan Biological Programs 240 Libyan Nuclear Programs 240 Libyan War Fighting Capability 241 SECURITY, MILITARY FORCES, AND REGIONAL STABILITY 241 5 Tunisia 245 TUNISIAN POLITICO-MILITARY DEVELOPMENTS 246 The Bourguiba Era 246 Ben AH Comes to Power 247 Problems with Islamic Fundamentalism 248 Moves Toward Political Reform 248 BenAli, Democracy, and the Future 250 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN TUNISIA 251 MILITARY EXPENDITURES AND ARMS TRANSFERS 254 TUNISIA'S MILITARY DEVELOPMENTS AND FORCE SIZE 260 TUNISIAN ARMED FORCES 260 TUNISIAN MILITARY MANPOWER r~ ] - 264 THE TUNISIAN ARMY 265 THE TUNISIAN NAVY 269 THE TUNISIAN AIR FORCE 270 PARAMILITARY FORCES AND INTERNAL SECURITY 270 SECURITY, MILITARY FORCES, AND REGIONAL STABILITY 273 6 Changing the Military Tragedy in the Maghreb 275 7 Sources and Methods 277 SOURCES 277 METHODS 279 Notes 281 Bibliography 309