Newton Abbot Locality Development

Newton Abbot Locality Resident population (2013) (population that live in the area) Registered population (2015) (population that are registered to a GP) 50,500 52,300 Source: Resident population estimates based on 2013 LSOA population estimates, ONS. Registered population estimates derived from practice lists Aug 2015

Registered Population Projections Estimated registered population Change in estimated registered population 2015 2020 2025 2030 2015 to 2020 2015 to 2025 2015 to 2030 0 to 14 8,254 8,682 8,852 8,853 5.2% 7.2% 7.3% 15 to 29 8,938 8,492 8,393 8,660-5.0% -6.1% -3.1% 30 to 44 8,578 8,651 9,071 9,229 0.8% 5.7% 7.6% 45 to 64 14,590 14,576 14,099 13,488-0.1% -3.4% -7.6% 65 to 84 10,084 11,088 11,965 12,967 10.0% 18.7% 28.6% 85+ 1,835 2,054 2,457 3,081 11.9% 33.9% 67.9% Total 52,279 53,542 54,837 56,277 2.4% 4.9% 7.6% Source: local registered population modelled against Sub National Population Projections (ONS)

Registered Population Projections Population pyramid for Newton Abbot Locality compared to England average, 2020 85+ 80 to 84 75 to 79 70 to 74 65 to 69 60 to 64 55 to 59 50 to 54 45 to 49 40 to 44 35 to 39 30 to 34 25 to 29 20 to 24 15 to 19 10 to 14 5 to 9 0 to 4 Average age (Years) Newton Abbot South Devon and Torbay England 2015 43.8 45.3 40.3 2020 44.4 46.0 41.0 2025 45.0 46.9 41.7 2030 45.7 47.6 42.4 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% England average Source: local registered population modelled against Sub National Population Projections (ONS)

2015 Index of Multiple Deprivation Most deprived area is in Newton Abbot Part of Buckland and Milber Electoral Ward Least deprived area is in Ogwell Part of Ambrook Electoral Ward

Newton Abbot Resident Profile Least vs Most Deprived Areas Measure Least deprived small area (Ambrook) Most deprived small area (Buckland and Milber) Life expectancy at birth (2011-2013) 94.8yrs 79.0yrs Life expectancy at 65 (2011-2013) 31.0yrs 18.7yrs Population under 16 (2013) 19.2% 22.6% Population 85 and over (2013) 2.4% 2.2% Index of Multiple Deprivation score (2015) 4.5 36.0 % income deprived (2015) 5.3% 28.1% % employment deprived (2015) 5.1% 20.1% Jobseekers Allowance Claimant rate (2011-2013) 1.6% 4.0% Emergency admission rate per 10,000 (2011/12-2013/14) 720 1,194 General fertility rate per 1,000 (2009-2012) 51.3 62.8 Source: 2015 English Indices of multiple deprivation, Births data, ONS. PCMD, SUS, HSCIC.

Newton Abbot Resident Population Profile Least vs Most Deprived Areas, 2013 Source: 2015 English Indices of Multiple Deprivation, 2013 Population estimates, ONS.

Newton Abbot Least Deprived Small Area Source: 2015 English Indices of Multiple Deprivation, ONS.

Newton Abbot Most Deprived Small Area Source: 2015 English Indices of Multiple Deprivation, ONS.

Estimated Burden of Disease Estimated burden of disease Number of patients with disease; known or not known to primary care 2015 2020 2025 2015 to 2020 change 2015 to 2025 change Coronary heart disease 3,001 3,308 3,617 10.2% 20.5% Chronic kidney disease 4,772 5,243 5,807 9.9% 21.7% People aged 65 and over predicted to have: Type 1 or Type 2 diabetes 1,481 1,632 1,785 10.2% 20.5% A longstanding health condition caused by a stroke 275 308 345 12.0% 25.7% Dementia 877 988 1,169 12.7% 33.4% Depression 1,027 1,128 1,240 9.8% 20.7% Severe depression 327 361 410 10.2% 25.3% A longstanding health condition caused by bronchitis and emphysema 201 222 245 10.7% 21.9% A moderate or severe visual impairment 1,044 1,173 1,344 12.3% 28.7% A moderate or severe, or profound, hearing impairment 3,587 4,068 4,699 13.4% 31.0% Source: Registered populations applied to: CHD, London Health Observatory. CKD prevalence, Public Health England. People aged 65 and over, POPPI

Community Overview Source: 2014/15 South Devon and Torbay Joint Strategic Needs Assessment

Totality of Health Service Use: Newton Abbot Locality GP Consultations: 361,477 Community Therapy and Nursing Services: 83,854 Secondary Care Outpatient Appointments: 76,212 A&E and MIU Attendances: 20,469 Radiology events: 19,305 Elective Acute Care: 7,722 Intermediate Care: 6,300 Non Elective Acute Care: 4,803 Figures relate to activity not people and is based on available NHS data Community Hospital Admissions: Excludes Teign Ward: 595

A New Model of Care for Newton Abbot Locality

Model of Care for Newton Abbot Locality Complex co-morbidities supported in community Multi-skilled and multi-functional workforce Co-location - integrated care teams providing a holistic offer, improved coordination, multi-disciplinary and outcomes-based approach to care. Every Contact Counts maximising self-care and health promotion; becomes embedded in the community. Primary and community care brought together as a single service offer. Accountable for all community-based care of the population Aim 85% of all health and care need met in the community

Model of Care for Newton Abbot Locality Enhance existing services, develop community assets. DGH continue to provide radiology, A&E, elective care, OP Remote access to specialist advice for GPs and other care professionals Ability to extend scope and ambition of care model according to aspirations Operational delivery phased to enable a transition over time to new ways of working Gradually push boundaries of what we can achieve