Uninventing the Bomb? 1
It is often argued that nuclear weapons cannot be uninvented and we must therefore learn to live with them and the threat they pose But things get uninvented all the time, mostly via obsolescence or substitution or cost 2
Technologies serve social functions, which can be displaced, replaced, subsumed or abolished: obsolescence or redesign can also be important elements in this process 3
What is the social function of nuclear weapons? Deterrence Compellance Defense If these can be accomplished in other ways, why not abolish nuclear weapons? Some countries have done it. 4
Consider these cases: Sweden, Ukraine, South Africa 5
At the end of WWII, the Swedish government decided to acquire an atomic arsenal in 1952, the decision was made to manufacture 10 plutonium bombs The program was sponsored by the governing Social Democrats, but was kept secret because of opposition by party members. 6
The government and military believed, at first, that all first-rank states would need to acquire atomic weapons to be influential Although Sweden steadfastly maintained its neutrality in the East-West conflict, it was believed that a small atomic force would also act as a deterrent especially against the Soviets 7
Swedish military analysts also believed that the U.S. nuclear umbrella covered Sweden even though nothing was ever said to this effect Sweden s primary security goal was to remain out of a European war 8
Eventually, the Swedish military came to realize that a few atomic weapons might be an attractive nuisance and provoke an early attack by the USSR in the event of a European war The Social Democratic Party was also solidly against nuclear weapons politics ultimately led Sweden to decide against pursuit of atomic weapons, without abandoning the technical capability 9
The breakup of the USSR in 1991 left four countries with strategic nuclear weapons: Russia, Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan 10
In 1990, the Ukrainian parliament declared that Ukraine would never accept, produce or acquire nuclear weapons but after independence in 1991, a debate began over what to do with the 180 strategic missiles left after the Soviet breakup 11
Ukraine returned some 3,000 tactical nuclear weapons to Russia (by 1992), but announced that it would retain operational control over the strategic weapons Russia, and others, did not like this and Ukraine did not really have independent launch control of the missiles 12
In 1994, the US, Russia and Ukraine agreed to transfer 200 nuclear warheads to Russia, in return for 100 tons of nuclear fuel for Ukraine and $60 million for Russia. By 1996, all the warheads were gone; in 1997, Ukraine agreed to destroy missiles and silos, too 13
South Africa voluntarily dismantled its six uranium bombs in 1991 but why did it have atomic bombs in the first place? The casings made for the atomic bombs and stored at Advena. These are probably unused casings for new bombs,since the Chicago Tribune reported on 2 May 1999 that pieces of the casings of the actual atomic bombs were beaten into miniature, ornamental plowshares, "suitable as gifts for inspectors of the International Atomic Energy Agency". South Africa is the world s largest gold producer, and uranium is found in association with gold this had both domestic and foreign political implications 14
South Africa is at the southern end of the African copper belt presumed to be a Soviet target during the 1970s and 1980s 15
Angola and Mozambique, in particular, established socialist governments at independence and fell immediately into civil war 16
The South Africans started to warn of a Soviet-led resource war against the West, spearheaded by Cubans, Africans, and the African National Congress South Africa became deeply involved in the Angolan Civil War The atomic bombs would be used against invaders whether foreign or domestic 17
TABLE 2.7 Uranium: proved reserves and annual production (conventional resources recoverable at up to US$130/kg) Production, 1999 thousand tonnes Reconverable reserves at up to US$130/kg end 1999 Annual productio n 1999 Algeria 26.0 Central African Republic 16.0 Congo (Democratic Rep.) 1.8 Gabon 4.8 0.3 Malawi 11.7 Namibia 180.5 2.7 Niger 71.1 2.9 Somalia 6.6 NA South Africa 292.8 1.1 Zimbabwe 1.8 Total Africa 613.1 7.0 Source: Survey of Energy Resources 2001, WEC South Africa s uranium was discovered during WWII, and its nuclear research activities began in 1959, during the apartheid regime 18
The South African program began with a natural uranium reactor, but moved to uranium enrichment in 1967 That same year, research into peaceful nuclear explosives was launched. Eventually, the program produced six gun-type weapons 19
In the late 1980s, President F.W. de Klerk decided to terminate the program, and in 1991 South Africa signed the Nuclear Non- Proliferation Treaty was he concerned about a post-apartheid government with nukes? 20
Can we infer any insights from these three cases? Politics trumps technology A focus on technical details can obstruct political progress The absence of nearby opponents reduces incentives to remain or go nuclear Nuclear weapons breed insecurity and more weapons Norms matter, especially in politics 21
The United States and Russia have deconstructed both warheads, missiles & delivery platforms The United States has provided over 26,000 storage containers such as this one, to hold plutonium and HEU from dismantled nuclear weapons at the Mayak storage facility. Source: DOD 22
The Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) offers an interesting model for disarmament There are 188 signatories to the CWC; non-members include: Israel, Myanmar, Angola, North Korea, Egypt, Somalia, Syria The CWC aims to eliminate an entire category of weapons of mass destruction by prohibiting the development, production, acquisition, stockpiling, retention, transfer or use of chemical weapons by States Parties. States Parties, in turn, must take the steps necessary to enforce that prohibition in respect of persons (natural or legal) within their jurisdiction. All States Parties have agreed to chemically disarm by destroying any stockpiles of chemical weapons they may hold and any facilities which produced them, as well as any chemical weapons they abandoned on the territory of other States Parties in the past. States Parties have also agreed to create a verification regime for certain toxic chemicals and their precursors in order to ensure that such chemicals are only used for purposes not prohibited. The CWC includes a 'challenge inspection provision, whereby any State Party in doubt about another State Party's compliance can request the Director-General to send an inspection team. Under the CWC's 'challenge inspection' procedure, States Parties have committed themselves to the principle of 'any time, anywhere' inspections with no right of refusal. (from the OPCW website, at: http://www.opcw.org/chemical-weaponsconvention/ 23
CWC Results to date 31,446, or 44.09%, of the world's declared stockpile of 71,316 metric tonnes of chemical agent have been verifiably destroyed. (As at 30/04/2009) 3.84, or 44.29%, of the 8.67 million chemical munitions and containers covered by the CWC have been verifiably destroyed. (As at 30/04/2009) From Entry into Force of the CWC (April 1997) until 30/04/2009, the OPCW has conducted 3,689 inspections on the territory of 81 States Parties, including 2,088 inspections of chemical weapon-related sites. 195 chemical weapon-related sites have been inspected out of a total of 227 declared. 100% of the declared chemical weapons stockpiles have been inventoried and verified. 174 initial declarations have been received. 100% of the declared chemical weapons production facilities (CWPFs) have been inactivated. All are subject to a verification regime of unprecedented stringency. 62 of the 70 CWPFs declared to the OPCW have been either destroyed (43) or converted for peaceful purposes (19). 12 States Parties have declared CWPFs: Bosnia and Herzegovina, China, France, India, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Japan, the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, the Russian Federation, Serbia, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, the United States of America, and another State Party. (http://www.opcw.org/our-work/demilitarisation/) 24
Wednesday, 06 May 2009 U.S. Achieves 60 Percent Destruction of Chemical Weapons Stockpile The United States Army Chemical Materials Agency (CMA), which is responsible for destroying U.S. chemical weapons, has announced the destruction of 60 percent of the country s declared stockpile under the Chemical Weapons Convention, which has been verified by the OPCW. The OPCW has verified the complete destruction of U.S. chemical weapons at three national sites: Newport, Indiana; Aberdeen, Maryland; and Johnston Island. Operations continue at the remaining destruction sites in Tooele, Utah; Umatilla, Oregon; Anniston, Alabama; and Pine Bluff, Arkansas, all of which are destroying or preparing to destroy blister agent. An on-site container containing VX agent-filled M55 Rockets will be sealed before being pulled by a truck a short distance to the Tooele Chemical Agent Disposal Facility. In reaching the 60 percent destruction mark, CMA calculates that it has reduced the overall continued storage risk from the nation s stockpiled chemical weapons by 94 percent. CMA reached the 50 percent destruction milestone in December 2007 and says it is poised to destroy the agency s two-millionth chemical weapons munition in the coming months. OPCW NEWS 18/2009, http://www.opcw.org/news/news/article/usachieves-60-percent-destruction-of-chemical-weapons-stockpile/ 25
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