JANUARY 2017 DFP Mining and Resources Job Index Introduction Welcome to the latest edition of the DFP Mining and Resources Job Index which provides month end data for January 2017. Job vacancies in the Mining and Resources sector increased 6.8% in January, as 2017 commenced on a positive note. The level of job opportunities are now 29.7% higher than in January 2016. Both Permanent and Temporary/Contract roles performed well with the former rising 7.4% and the latter increasing 6.1%. Both the Western Australian and Queensland markets expanded, WA leading the way with a 9.9% rise in January. Metal Ore Mining contributed to the bulk of new opportunities with a rise of 21.2% in January and after spectacular growth in the second half of 2016, Coal and Mineral Mining plateaued with a fall of 6.1%. All occupational categories grew in January with the most exciting development being the marked improvement in job prospects for Engineering Professionals, which grew 10.4% in January. We welcome all comments and observations. Our aim is to deliver research that is timely and informative to employers, job seekers and those with an interest in the Australian Mining and Resources job market. National Job Index DFP Mining and Resources Job Index 1 Permanent Temporary and Contract National Chart 1: National Index and Job Type Analysis Employment prospects in the Mining and Resources sector started the year on a very positive note with the DFP Mining and Resources Job Index rising 6.8% from 59.44 to 63.51. December saw a slight fall after 5 months of positive growth, however most results seem to be back on track. Although coming from a low base, the level of job opportunities are now 29.7% higher than January 2016. As January can often be slow due to seasonal factors, this month s rise is all the more impressive. It is the strongest market we have seen since February 2015. DFP Mining and Resources Job Index January 2017 1
National Job Index (continued) Both Permanent vacancies and Temporary and Contract job opportunities performed well. The Permanent market bounced back a bullish 7.4% after retreating 0.8% in December. This gives strength to last months contraction being considered a one off seasonal aberration, as it has enjoyed consistent growth since April 2016. Demand for Permanent vacancies is up 21.0% over 12 months. The Temporary and Contract market grew a healthy 6.1% after dropping 2.7% in December with the longer term trend being even stronger. Job opportunities are up an impressive 43.3% over the last 12 months. Whilst the low base has to be taken into account, it is nonetheless a really encouraging sign for job seekers that the mining and resources job market is clearly improving after so much contraction since the investment boom. DFP Mining and Resources Job Index v RBA Bulk Commodity Price Index (A$) 1 RBA Bulk Commodity Price Index DFP Mining and Resources Job Index Chart 2: Comparison between the National Index and the RBA Commodity Price Index January saw a significant fall in the aggregated RBA commodity price index. The 13.3% fall needs further analysis. The Australian dollar has appreciated around 3 cents over this time. While coking coal and iron ore prices have increased, it is the large fall in oil and gas prices that has brought the composite index down so dramatically. As we have been reporting for a number of months, the rises in commodity prices has not been met with a comparable rise in job vacancies in the sector. Therefore what we are seeing now is employers lagged response to the overall pick up in prices during 2016. Assuming there isn t a comparable fall in coal and base metal prices, there is no reason to believe that resource companies won t continue to grow their workforces once again. DFP Mining and Resources Job Index January 2017 2
State Analysis State Analysis 1 QLD WA Other Chart 3: Comparison of State Job Indices against the National Norm Most of January s jobs growth was driven out of Western Australia. Demand has now risen 10.9% in the last quarter and 17.3% over 12 months. As the index for WA is only now up to 69.03 (set at a base of 100 in November 2013) these are hardly boom conditions, but they do indicate a steadily improving jobs market in the resources sector. The index is at its highest point since March 2015. As WA is very broadly based in the commodities produced, it is still able to maintain momentum even where one sector (currently oil and gas) may be struggling. Queensland also expanded in January, but only by 2.9%. Its job market surged earlier in 2016 off the back of substantial coal price rises, however things have softened more recently. Demand is down 0.3% in the last quarter but up 45.7% compared to this time last year. With several large projects ramping up, we see room for further growth in job opportunities in Queensland this year. State Proportions 49.7% 0.3% 12.3% 5% 3.6% 2.3% 26.5% ACT NSW NT QLD SA TAS VIC The graph shown left provides a breakdown of the proportions of each state and territory. Western Australia s share of the national market is up to 49.7%. The last time it exceeded 50% was in February 2016. The current momentum suggests it will represent over half the opportunities in the market in the not to distant future. WA 0.3% Chart 4: Analysis of Job Advertisements by State and Territory DFP Mining and Resources Job Index January 2017 3
Sub Sector Analysis Sub Sector Analysis 1 Coal and Mineral Mining Oil and Gas Extraction Metal Ore Mining Exploration Mining Services Chart 5: Analysis of Job Vacancies by Sub Sector The bulk of new opportunities in the industry this month came from the Metal Ore Mining sector. As iron ore prices lifted through much of 2016, this resulted in a steady rather than spectacular improvement in the jobs market. The new year seems to have heralded a new wave of surging demand, and from the job seekers perspective, one that hopefully can be sustained. The index is now on 76.75, its highest point since November 2014. It s been quite the opposite in Coal and Mineral Mining, where after some spectacular growth in the second half of 2016, the market plateaued in December and fell 6.1% in January. Again job seekers will be hoping this is a temporary aberration. As coking and thermal prices remain high and production levels are rising, the jobs market should hold up strongly this year. Sub Sector Proportions 6.2% 22.8% 4.9% 44.2% 21.9% Metal Ore Mining Oil and Gas Extraction Mining Services Exploration Coal and Mineral Mining The Oil and Gas sector also retreated 7.6% in December and now a further 9.1% in January. OPEC production targets have seen prices fall substantially, so it comes as no surprise that oil and gas employers in Australia have taken a cautious approach. Metal Ore Mining saw its share of the market soar in January. It rose 5.3% to 44.2% from 38.9%. That s an enormous rise for 1 month, coming from a combination of its own growth and due to shrinkage in other sectors. Chart 6: The Proportion of Job Vacancies by Sub Sector DFP Mining and Resources Job Index January 2017 4
High Level Occupational Analysis High Level Occupational Analysis 1 1 Operational Management Engineering Professionals Trades and Operators Business Support 0.00 Chart 7: Analysis of Job Advertisements by Occupational Group All occupational categories grew in January. Arguably the most exciting development has been the marked improvement in job prospects for Engineering Professionals, which grew 10.4% in January. This has continued its run of good form that has seen 5 successive months of growth. Engineering roles have been in very short supply, however the market picked up in the second half of 2016 and looks set to expand further this year. It is still the weakest sector on 56.05, but it is gaining ground on Operational Management which now sits at 56.22. Operational Management also had a very good month, increasing 8.6%. Although after healthy rises in early 2016, growth has slowed. Job seekers looking for management opportunities will be hoping that January s rise may be a sign of further growth to come. Trades and Operators remains the strongest occupational group with an index at 78.35, however it fell in December and again produced the weakest growth, 1.8%, in January. The gap between this category and the other major occupational groups is certainly narrowing. DFP Mining and Resources Job Index January 2017 5
Operational Management Operational Management Analysis 1 Production and Project Management Technical Services and Maintenance Management Geologists, and other Sciences Occupational Health and Welfare Chart 8: Analysis of Job Vacancies across Operational Management Occupations January saw strong double digit growth for both Geologists (and related sciences) and Technical Services and Maintenance professionals. Technical Services and Maintenance Management job opportunities have risen by 58.8% in the last 12 months and the index, now sitting at 72.10, is the highest demand has been since January 2015. Demand for Geologists, Geophysicists & Other Sciences has increased by a very impressive 49.2%. All of this growth has been in the last 6 months. As the Exploration sector sees commodity and share prices rising, the opportunity to revisit potential mines and development opportunities previously on hold as the market retreated, should help this market expand in 2017. Occupational Health and Welfare remains the weakest group. Demand actually fell 11.4% in January contributing to an 18.8% fall over 3 months. The index still sits at 47.48, and to date the price and production rises have not been sufficient to produce fresh job opportunities. DFP Mining and Resources Job Index January 2017 6
Engineering Professionals Engineering Professionals Analysis 1 1 Mechanical and Production Engineers Mining and Petroleum Engineers Other Engineers Engineering Trades and Technicians 0.00 Chart 9: Analysis of Job Vacancies across Engineering Occupations All Engineering professional categories enjoyed healthy growth in January. While Mechanical and Production Engineers experienced the strongest growth, it was Mining and Petroleum Engineers who achieved the standout result with demand increasing 21.6%. Their index is now up to 36.46, still very low, although a massive improvement on just where the market was at 6 months ago. Demand is now the strongest since March 2015 and subject to commodity price movements, these engineers have a more optimistic year ahead. Trades and Operators Trades and Operator Analysis 1 1 Construction, Electrical and Mechanical Trades Drillers, Miners and Moving Plant Operators Riggers and Labourers Chart 10: Analysis of Job Vacancies across Mining and Resources Trades and Operators It has been very noticeable that there has been little job growth for Trade and Operators despite the rise in prices and production levels. Although there has been a lack of recent growth, when the markets collapsed after the investment boom, demand for these trades and professions held up best. All 3 occupations fell in December and while all grew in January, all growth was modest. The highest increase was Drillers and Miners at 2.6% and the weakest Construction, Electrical and Mechanical Trades with just 0.9% growth. Riggers and Labourers achieved 1.6% growth. The longer term outlook is still promising, with demand well above the levels seen at this time last year. Data supplied under Copyright by HRO2 Research Pty Ltd DFP Mining and Resources Job Index January 2017 7 1300 337 000 dfp.com.au