Carbon in Myths and and Realities Jan Kappen, Programme Manager & Carbon Unit, UNEP-DTIE jkappen@unep.fr Carbon in Presentation ATF Workshop, Lagos May 21-22 2008 1
Carbon in Myths and and Realities Myth #1 Nobody is developing Carbon Projects in Carbon in Presentation ATF Workshop, Lagos May 21-22 2008 2
Global Distribution of CDM Projects Global distribution of CDM Project in 2007 (yellow = projects in pipeline, red = registered projects) Source: UNFCCC (2008) Anybody out out there? Carbon in Presentation ATF Workshop, Lagos May 21-22 2008 3
n CDM Projects to date - Overview 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Registered projects Egypt Morocco Nigeria South Tanzania Tunisia Uganda n projects at validation Tunisia 10% Tanzania 3% South 34% Annual CERs Uganda 1% Egypt 25% Nigeria 23% Morocco 4% DR of Congo Egypt Kenya Mali Mauritius Morocco Mozambique Nigeria Senegal South Tanzania Uganda Carbon in Presentation ATF Workshop, Lagos May 21-22 2008 4
Development of CDM Transactions in 3% 5% 2% <1% Source: Ambrosi/Capoor (2009) emerges in in the the Carbon Market! Carbon in Presentation ATF Workshop, Lagos May 21-22 2008 5
WRONG! Myth#1 vs. Reality - The CDM in Project pipeline is building up Higher project risks play a role, but not a decisive one Slow validation and approval processes are increasingly becoming a bottleneck Project-per-capita ratio not that bad is just a late starter CDM pipeline reflects reality better than registered projects or CERs issued Carbon in Presentation ATF Workshop, Lagos May 21-22 2008 6
Carbon in Myths and and Realities Myth #2: n Potential for Carbon is insignificant Carbon in Presentation ATF Workshop, Lagos May 21-22 2008 7
Carbon n Potential Estimate of GHG Emission Reduction Potential in 2010, 11% Middle East 11% Latin America & Caribbean 6% Asia, 72% Source: Jotzo/Michaelowa (2005) disposes of of a significant share of of the the global potential for for GHG mitigation and and sequestration. Carbon in Presentation ATF Workshop, Lagos May 21-22 2008 8
n GHG Emission Profile Sector Distribution of GHG Emissions in 49.1% 36.6% 7.5% 6.8% -25.5% Industrial Agriculture Waste Land use change and forests Source: UNFCCC (2008) Small industrial potential + predominance of of bioenergy, agricultural, land land use use change and and forests sectors. Carbon in Presentation ATF Workshop, Lagos May 21-22 2008 9
CDM in the Forestry and Agriculture Sectors? Growth of worldwide CDM transactions by sector 1400 Million CERs 1200 1000 800 600 Afforestation & Reforestation Fuel switch Efficiency Renewables 400 200 0 CH4 reduction & Cement & Coal mine/bed HFC & N2O reduction Dec-03 Feb-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04 Dec-04 Feb-05 Apr-05 Jun-05 Aug-05 Oct-05 Dec-05 Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-06 Source: UNEP Risoe Centre (2006) Global transaction t volume in in the the forest sector very very low, low, agricultural projects non-existent. Carbon in Presentation ATF Workshop, Lagos May 21-22 2008 10
Forest Carbon in A Closer Look Carbon emissions Carbon uptake Forest emissions Non-Forest Land Use n Forests Slash&burn Reforestation Forest Ecosystems Shrinking forests, growing emissions. Carbon in Presentation ATF Workshop, Lagos May 21-22 2008 11
Forest Carbon in GHG Mitigation and Sequestration Potential Technical potential for GHG emission reductions in the forest sector (Mt CO2eq/yr in 2030). Not (yet) eligible under the CDM! Forest Management 5% Reforestation 35% Reduction of Deforestation 60% Source: IPCC (2008) Total = 1,920 Mt CO2/yr Total forest-based GHG reduction potential is is equal to to 20 20 times the the potential under the the CDM*! (*) Estimate grand total, all sectors, based on Ambrosi/Capoor (2006) Carbon in Presentation ATF Workshop, Lagos May 21-22 2008 12
Agricultural Carbon Emissions in A Global Comparison Technical potential for GHG emission reductions in the agriculture sector until 2030 (Mt CO2eq/yr). Source: Smith/Martino (2007) n potential for for GHG emission reductions in in agricultural sector as as big big as as China+India combined. Carbon in Presentation ATF Workshop, Lagos May 21-22 2008 13
WRONG! Myth#2 vs. Reality - n Potential for Carbon Lack of potential is not the problem neither is lack of demand demand for forest carbon rapidly growing, Voluntary/institutional buyers love n potential is just very different from the CDM mainstream Different sectors Different scale Different methodologies CDM pipeline does not reflect true potential - existing methodologies poorly suited Terms of next commitment period (post 2012) will be crucial Carbon in Presentation ATF Workshop, Lagos May 21-22 2008 14
Thank you! For more info : www.cd4cdm.org Carbon in Presentation ATF Workshop, Lagos May 21-22 2008 15
Carbon Beware of Myths, Hot Air and Pipedreams Carbon in Presentation ATF Workshop, Lagos May 21-22 2008 16