The Iraqi Public on the US Presence and the Future of Iraq A WorldPublicOpinion.org Poll Questionnaire and Methodology Dates of Survey: September 4, 26 Margin of Error: +/ 3 % Sample Size: + 5 oversample * Indicates less than one percent Q. Do you think that Iraq today is generally headed in the right direction or the wrong direction? 9/6 /6 Right direction...47% 64%...64 76...59 84...6 6 Wrong direction...52 36...36 23...4 6...93 93 Don t know/refused (vol.)... * Q2. Thinking about the Iraqi government led by Prime Minister Nouri Maliki, would you say that in its effort to deal with Iraq s problems, the government is doing a very good job, a somewhat good job, somewhat bad or very bad job? Very good job...7%...8...23... Somewhat good job...46....54...54...7 Somewhat bad job...22...2...7
The Iraqi Public on the US Presence and the Future of Iraq Sep 4, 26...35 Very bad job...5...7...6...47 Don t know/refused (vol.)...* Q3. Please tell me if you think the following are having a mostly positive or mostly negative influence on the situation in Iraq? Mostly Mostly (No effect/ (Ref./ Positive Negative Neither) DK) Q3a. Iran....27% 52 2 January 26...26 52 2...8 7 2 January 26...9 63 23 5...45 28 27 January 26...43 3 26 *... 94 4 January 26...* 93 6 Q3b. Syria...5% 55 3 January 26...8 6 3...9 63 27 January 26... 55 4 3...6 68 25 January 26...5 8 6 *...4 7 43 * January 26...2 25 54 * Q3c. The United States....4% 79 6...48 34 7...8 87 4 *... 96 2 2 2
The Iraqi Public on the US Presence and the Future of Iraq Sep 4, 26 Q4ac. Do you strongly approve, approve somewhat, disapprove somewhat, or strongly disapprove of the following: Strongly Approve Disapprove Strongly (Refused/ Approve Somewhat Somewhat Disapprove DK) a. Attacks on USled forces in Iraq...27% 34 23 6 * January 26...23 24 29 23...6 9 27 59 January 26...8 8 8 63 3...2 4 29 9 January 26...9 32 4 8 *...55 37 7 * * January 26...77 9 3 b. Attacks on Iraqi government security forces...* 4 28 68 * January 26... 6 27 66 *... 3 8 89 January 26...* * 3 86 *... 23 76 * January 26...2 2 9 78... 3 57 29 January 26...* 24 52 24 c. Attacks on Iraqi civilians....* * 3 97 * January 26...* 4 95... 3 97 January 26...* * 98... * 2 97 * January 26... 5 94... 4 95 January 26... 5 95 [If APPROVE in Q4a] Q4d: If the US made a commitment to withdraw from Iraq according to a timeline would you feel less supportive of attacks against USled forces or would it make no difference? Would feel less supportive...36% *......43...42 * Percent of total. 3
The Iraqi Public on the US Presence and the Future of Iraq Sep 4, 26 It would make no difference....23...3...9...49 Don t know/refused (vol.)... Q5ag: Please tell me if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very favorable opinion of: a. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad b. Osama bin Laden c. Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki d. Grand Ayatollah Ali al Sistani e. Muqtada alsadr f. al Qaeda g. Hezbollah. Very Favorable 7% 5 28 3 29 3 45 46 8 77 2 3 52 2 5 3 5 6 Somewhat Favorable 25 9 36 7 26 35 45 4 3 4 5 8 3 9 6 29 8 5 8 32 5 4 35 Somewhat Unfavorable 2 34 2 7 6 4 48 9 22 37 9 39 2 45 4 9 2 2 7 3 39 2 29 7 49 Very Unfavorable 36 43 5 8 77 87 94 23 8 2 4 48 22 39 3 5 38 75 8 8 82 93 95 38 6 64 2 Ref/DK (vol.) * * * 3 * 4
The Iraqi Public on the US Presence and the Future of Iraq Sep 4, 26 Q4: Please tell me how much confidence you have in those forces to protect your security. Please say whether you have no confidence, a little confidence, some confidence, or a lot of confidence. a. The Iraqi army No confidence 3% 3 2 7 A little confidence 34 8 34 47 Some confidence 4 43 42 35 A lot of confidence 24 36 23 Ref./DK (vol.) b. Iraqi Interior Ministry forces 25 9 76 3 6 5 34 44 4 8 28 3 38 * c. Police 4 5 28 2 3 49 34 36 39 4 37 5 44 9 d. US military forces 62 7 66 85 22 28 25 3 37 7 2 5 8 2 Q7: Do you think that the new Iraqi system of government grants the central government too much power, too little power, or about the right amount of power? Too much power...37%...34...36...46 Too little power...35...42...35...24 About the right amount of power...26...24...27...29 Don t know/refused (vol.)...2 5
The Iraqi Public on the US Presence and the Future of Iraq Sep 4, 26 Q8. Do you think the US government plans to have permanent military bases in Iraq or to remove all its military forces once Iraq is stabilized? 9/6 /6 US plans to have permanent military bases in Iraq... 77% 8...58 67...73 79...97 92 US plans to remove its military forces once Iraq is stabilized....22 8...42 28...25 2...2 7 Don t know/refused (vol.)... Q9. Do you think the US military presence in Iraq is currently a stabilizing force or that it is provoking more conflict than it is preventing? Iraqis Americans 9/6 3/6 * A stabilizing force...2% 43%...56...7...2 Provoking more conflict than it is preventing...78 55...4...82...97 Don t know/refused (vol.)... 2 Q. Thinking about any hardships you might have suffered since the US Britain invasion, do you personally think that ousting Saddam Hussein was worth it or not? 9/6 /6 Worth it...6% 77...8 9...75 98... 3 * Taken from 3/6 WPO study Americans on Iraq: Three Years On. 6
The Iraqi Public on the US Presence and the Future of Iraq Sep 4, 26 Not worth it...38 22...8 8...23 2...89 83 Don t know/refused (vol.)... Q. Which of the following would you like the Iraqi government to ask the USled forces to do? 9/6 /6 Withdraw all USled forces within six months...37% 35... 3...36 22...57 83 Gradually withdraw USled forces according to a oneyear timeline...34%...24...38...34 N/A N/A N/A N/A Gradually withdraw USled forces according to a twoyear timeline....2 35...34 28...2 49...7 Only reduce USled forces as the security situation improves in Iraq....9 29...3 57...5 29...2 4 Don t know/refused (vol.)...* Q2: If the US made a commitment to withdraw from Iraq according to a timeline do you think this would strengthen the Iraqi government, weaken it, or have no effect either way? Strengthen the Iraqi government...53%...39...6...46 Weaken it...24 7
The Iraqi Public on the US Presence and the Future of Iraq Sep 4, 26...37...8...24 Have no effect either way...23...24...2...3 Don t know/refused (vol.)... Q3. Do you think that six months from now Iraqi security forces will be strong enough to deal with the security challenges Iraq will face or do you think Iraq will still need the help of military forces from other countries? 9/6 /6 Strong enough to deal with security challenges on its own...53% 39%...4 22...68 45...24 38 Will still need help of military forces from other countries...46 59...57 73...3 55...75 58 Don t know/refused (vol.)...2 2 [If still needs help Q3 2 ask Q3a] Q3a. How much longer do you think Iraqi security forces will still need the help of military forces from other countries? 9/6 * /6 year...9% 2...7 5...34 25...5 2 2 years...2 26...23 3...3 2 * Percent of total Percent of total 8
The Iraqi Public on the US Presence and the Future of Iraq Sep 4, 26...4 3 3 years or more...6 2...23 33...7 8...3 5 Don t know/refused (vol.)...* Q4ab. If USled forces withdraw from Iraq in the next six months, do you think ( ) will increase a lot, increase a little, decrease a little, decrease a lot, or have no effect either way? Increase Increase Decrease Decrease No effect Ref./DK a lot a little a lot a little either way (vol) a. amount of interethnic violence...6% 22 35 23 4 * January 26...9 4 26 35 5 *...26 22 29 8 6 January 26...49 9 7 3...7 22 34 23 5 * January 26...3 5 24 4 8 *...4 22 47 25 2 January 26...9 9 4 4 * b. day to day security for ordinary Iraqis...23% 38 22 2 5 * January 26...32% 35 4 6 2...6 33 22 9 9 January 26...29 28 2 2...23 34 26 2 5 January 26...28 33 5 2 3...29 49 5 6 January 26...36 47 9 7 * Q5. If the Iraqi government were to tell the US to withdraw all of its forces within six months do you think the US would or would not do so? 9/6 /6 * Would withdraw...2% 23...34 7...23 32...3 5 * The text of the question asked in January 26 included the word new before Iraqi government. 9
The Iraqi Public on the US Presence and the Future of Iraq Sep 4, 26 Would not withdraw...78 76...64 77...76 67...96 94 Don t know/refused (vol.)...2 2 Q6: Do you think that six months from now the level of violence in Iraq will be higher than it is today, lower, or about the same? Higher than it is today...3%...22...27...43 Lower...38...44...4...23 About the same...3...33...3...34 Don t know/refused (vol.)... Q7: Do you think that the current Iraqi government is or is not the legitimate representative of the Iraqi people? Is...65%...76...82...3 Is not...35...23...8...86 Don t know/refused (vol.)...
The Iraqi Public on the US Presence and the Future of Iraq Sep 4, 26 Q8ac. (Ask All) I am going to read a list of how the US has been involved in Iraq in nonmilitary ways. For each one that I read, please tell me if you approve of the US being involved and think the US is doing a good job, approve but think the US is doing a poor job, or disapprove of the US being involved in Iraq in this way. Approve and US is Approve, but US Doing a good job is doing a poor job Disapprove (Ref./DK) a. training Iraqi security forces...22 4 36 * January 26...33 44 23 *...5 43 7 January 26...54 42 4...9 45 36 * January 26...37 52 *...6 29 64 January 26...6 2 74 b. helping to mediate between ethnic groups...8% 39 52 January 26...7 48 34...26 57 8 January 26...34 54...5 38 57 * January 26...9 57 24 *...3 26 7 January 26...3 6 8 * c. helping Iraqis organize their communities to address local needs (such as building schools and health clinics)...27% 4 32 January 26...25 45 3 *...4 46 3 January 26...39 48...28 43 29 * January 26...29 54 7...2 29 59 2 January 26...6 4 8 *
The Iraqi Public on the US Presence and the Future of Iraq Sep 4, 26 [If Disapprove to any Q8ac, ask Q8d, otherwise skip to Q9] Q8d. If the US were to agree to a timetable for withdrawing its forces would that make you more likely to approve of the US being involved in Iraq in these nonmilitary ways or would it make no difference? 9/6 * /6 More likely to approve of US nonmilitary involvement...37% 5%...6...45 9...33 37 Would not make a difference in my opinion....27 23...3 6...22 7...5 47 Don t know/refused (vol.)... 8 Q9: Over the next year would you most favor: Withdrawing all foreign military forces from Iraq...65%...24...75...73 Maintaining USled forces in Iraq...4...48...7...2 Replacing USled forces with an international peacekeeping force mostly from Islamic countries...2...27...7...26 Don t know/refused (vol.)...* * Percent of total Percent of total 2
The Iraqi Public on the US Presence and the Future of Iraq Sep 4, 26 Q2: Do you feel that if all militias were to disarm now, that you could or could not rely on the government alone to ensure security in your area? Could...68%...72...54...93 Could not...3...28...44...6 Don t know/refused (vol.)... Q2: Would you prefer to have a strong government that would get rid of all militias or do you think it would be better to continue to have militias to protect your security? Strong government to get rid of militias...77%...82...65... Continue to have militias...2...5...33...* Don t know/refused (vol.)... Q22: Do you think that the attacks on Sunni civilians mainly come from foreign fighters or from other Iraqis? Foreign fighters...54%...52...63...3 Other Iraqis...45...47...36...69 Don t know/refused (vol.)... 3
The Iraqi Public on the US Presence and the Future of Iraq Sep 4, 26 Q23: Do you think that the attacks on Shia civilians mainly come from foreign fighters or from other Iraqis? Foreign fighters...58%...63...57...53 Other Iraqis...42...36...42...47 Don t know/refused (vol.)... Q24: How much of the violence directed against ethnic groups has the purpose of driving them from their neighborhoods so that an armed group can solidify its power there? None...%...6...9...7 Just a little...24...4...5...27 Some...39...35...42...33 Most...28...7...34...23 Don t know/refused (vol.)... 4
The Iraqi Public on the US Presence and the Future of Iraq Sep 4, 26 Q25: How likely do you think it is that 5 years from now Iraq will still be a single state? Very likely...3%...25...4... Somewhat likely...42...4...4...46 Not very likely...24...26...6...43 Not at all likely...4...9...3...2 Don t know/refused (vol.)...* DEMOGRAPHICS D. ETHNICITY D2. SEX... 8%...55...22 Other...5 Male...52% Female...49 D3. EDUCATION Primary or less...3% Secondary...42 Higher...28 5
The Iraqi Public on the US Presence and the Future of Iraq Sep 4, 26 D4. AGE 824...2% 2534...27 3544...22 4554...9 55+...2 METHODOLOGY The survey was designed and analyzed by the Program on International Policy Attitudes for WorldPublicOpinion.org. Field work was conducted through D3 Systems and its partner KA Research in Iraq. Facetoface interviews were conducted among a national random sample of, Iraqi adults 8 years and older. An over sample of 5 Iraqi s from predominantly provinces (Anbar, Diyalah and Salah AlDin) was carried out to provide additional precision with this group. The total sample thus was,5 Iraqi adults. The data were weighted to the following targets (, 55%, 22%, 8%, other 5%) in order to properly represent the Iraqi ethnic/religious communities. The sample design was a multistage area probability sample conducted in all 8 Iraqi provinces including Baghdad. Urban and rural areas were proportionally represented. Only one rural sampling point of the 5 employed were replaced for security reasons with substitutes in the same province and urban/rural classification. Among all the cases drawn into the sample, a 93% contact rate and 72% completion rate were achieved. 6