ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey United States 3 18
United States Employment Outlook More than 11,500 interviews were conducted with employers within the United States, including all 50 states, the top 100 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico, to measure hiring intentions between July and September 18. The mix of industries within the survey follows the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) supersectors and is structured to be representative of the U.S. economy. All participants were asked, How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of September 18 compared to the current quarter? Contents United States Employment Outlook 1 Industry Sector Comparisons Regional Comparisons Metropolitan Statistical Areas Global Employment Outlook 8 About the Survey 9
United States Employment Outlook Quarter 3 18 Quarter 2 18 Quarter 1 18 Quarter 4 17 Quarter 3 17 Increase Decrease No Change Don t Know Outlook Seasonally Adjusted % % % % % % 24 3 71 2 21 18 23 3 73 1 18 21 5 71 3 16 19 21 6 71 2 24 4 70 2 17 17 35 30 25 10 5 0-5 Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 No bar indicates Outlook of zero In the third quarter of 18, 24 percent of U.S. employers expect to increase payrolls, while 3 percent anticipate a decrease and 71 percent expect no change in staffing levels. Once the data is adjusted to account for seasonal variation, the Outlook for the U.S as a whole is +18%. Hiring intentions are unchanged when compared with the previous quarter, and U.S. employers report an increase of 1 percentage point in comparison with this time one year ago. Employers in the South report an improvement of 1 percentage point when compared with the second quarter of 18, resulting in the strongest Outlook reported for the region in more than 10 years. Hiring prospects weaken in the remaining three U.S. regions. In the West, employers report a decline of 2 percentage points, and Outlooks are 1 percentage point weaker in the Midwest and the Northeast. Steady payroll gains for the coming quarter are anticipated in the South and the Midwest, with Outlooks standing at +19%. Employers in the West expect a favorable hiring climate, reporting an Outlook of +17%. The Outlook for the Northeast stands at +16%. In comparison with the previous quarter, hiring plans are slightly weaker in the West, and remain relatively stable in the Midwest, the Northeast and the South. When compared with this time one year ago, hiring prospects are slightly stronger in three regions the Midwest, the Northeast and the South and remain relatively stable in the West. From this point forward, all data discussed in the commentary is seasonally adjusted, unless stated otherwise. Please note that throughout this report, the figure used in all graphs is the Outlook. This figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage of employers that expect to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter. In addition, percentage totals may not equal 100% due to rounding. ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey 1
Industry Sector Comparisons Employers in all 13 nationwide industry sectors expect to add to payrolls during Quarter 3 18: Leisure & Hospitality (+27%), Professional & Business Services (+22%), Transportation & Utilities (+22%), Wholesale & Retail Trade (+22%), Mining (+%), Construction (+19%), Durable Goods Manufacturing (+19%), Financial Activities (+16%), Nondurable Goods Manufacturing (+16%), Education & Health Services (+14%), Government (+14%), Information (+13%), Other Services (+11%). Nationally, employers in the Mining sector report the strongest hiring pace in more than three years the Outlook for the sector improves moderately when compared with the second quarter of 18. Slightly stronger hiring intentions are reported in the Nondurable Goods Manufacturing and Transportation & Utilities sectors. In the Construction sector, employers report a slight quarter-over-quarter improvement, and hiring plans are the strongest reported in more than 11 years. Hiring intentions remain relatively stable in eight of the 13 national industry sectors, when compared with Quarter 2 18: Financial Activities, Government, Information, Leisure & Hospitality, Durable Goods Manufacturing, Other Services, Professional & Business Services and Wholesale & Retail Trade. The Outlook reported for the Education & Health Services sector nationwide is slightly weaker in comparison with the previous quarter. The results for the Mining sector are reported only in the national survey data to ensure statistical accuracy. Industry Increase Decrease No Change Don t Know Outlook Q3 18 Seasonally Adjusted % % % % % % Construction Education & Health Services Financial Activities Government Information Leisure & Hospitality Manufacturing Durable Goods Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Mining Other Services Professional & Business Services Transportation & Utilities Wholesale & Retail Trade 28 2 68 2 26 19 18 4 76 2 14 14 19 2 78 1 17 16 18 2 77 3 16 14 18 5 76 1 13 13 38 6 55 1 32 27 24 2 73 1 22 19 2 76 2 18 16 25 2 70 3 23 2 82 1 13 11 26 2 70 2 24 22 28 3 67 2 25 22 27 3 68 2 24 22 2 ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey
Regional Comparisons +23 (+19)% Midwest Employers in 25 percent of the Midwest businesses surveyed expect payrolls to grow in the third quarter of 18, while 2 percent anticipate a decline in employment levels. The resulting Outlook for the region stands at +23%. Once the data is adjusted to allow for seasonal variation, regional hiring prospects remain relatively stable in comparison with the previous quarter, and are slightly stronger when compared with this time one year ago. Hiring intentions reported by Midwest employers in the Leisure & Hospitality and Financial Activities sectors improve considerably when compared with the second quarter of 18. In addition, the Outlook for the Information sector is moderately stronger. Hiring plans in three Midwest industry sectors remain relatively stable when compared with Quarter 2 18: Education & Health Services, Durable Goods Manufacturing and Nondurable Goods Manufacturing. Moderately weaker labor markets are anticipated by Midwest employers in the Wholesale & Retail Trade and Government sectors when compared with the previous quarter, while employers in four industry sectors report slight Outlook declines: Construction, Other Services, Professional & Business Services and Transportation & Utilities. 35 30 25 10 5 0-5 Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 No bar indicates Outlook of zero. Revised methodology effective Quarter 1 09. Industry Increase Decrease No Change Don t Know Outlook Q3 18 Seasonally Adjusted % % % % % % All Industries Midwest Construction Education & Health Services Financial Activities Government Information Leisure & Hospitality Manufacturing Durable Goods Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Other Services Professional & Business Services Transportation & Utilities Wholesale & Retail Trade 25 2 72 1 23 19 26 2 71 1 24 12 3 81 1 12 12 25 4 71 0 21 19 12 2 86 0 10 7 19 4 76 1 16 49 1 49 1 48 43 26 1 72 1 25 21 25 3 68 4 22 19 10 1 88 1 9 8 27 2 71 0 25 21 29 3 68 0 26 21 25 3 69 3 22 18 The Midwest Region comprises the following states: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin. ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey 3
+ (+16)% Northeast Payroll gains are anticipated by 23 percent of Northeast businesses surveyed for the upcoming quarter, while 3 percent of employers expect a decline in staffing levels. With 72 percent of employers in the region expecting no change, the Outlook for the next three months is +%. Once the data is adjusted to allow for seasonal variation, hiring prospects remain relatively stable in comparison with Quarter 2 18, and are slightly stronger when compared with the third quarter of 17. Transportation & Utilities sector employers in the Northeast report moderately stronger hiring plans for the next three months, when compared with the previous quarter. Government sector employers in the region report improved hiring prospects, with a slight quarter-over-quarter increase. Hiring intentions remain relatively stable in five of the Northeast s 12 industry sectors in comparison with Quarter 2 18: Financial Activities, Information, Leisure & Hospitality, Nondurable Goods Manufacturing and Wholesale & Retail. The Outlook for the Other Services sector in the Northeast is moderately weaker in comparison with the previous quarter. Slightly weaker hiring plans are reported for four of the regional industry sectors: Construction, Education & Health Services, Durable Goods Manufacturing and Professional & Business Services. 35 30 25 10 5 0-5 Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 No bar indicates Outlook of zero. Revised methodology effective Quarter 1 09. Industry Increase Decrease No Change Don t Know Outlook Q3 18 Seasonally Adjusted % % % % % % All Industries Northeast Construction Education & Health Services Financial Activities Government Information Leisure & Hospitality Manufacturing Durable Goods Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Other Services Professional & Business Services Transportation & Utilities Wholesale & Retail Trade 23 3 72 2 16 28 1 70 1 27 14 5 77 3 10 13 22 2 75 1 18 17 2 78 3 13 6 78 1 9 9 39 5 56 0 34 23 22 1 74 3 21 14 1 82 3 13 11 13 3 83 1 10 8 27 3 69 1 24 26 4 67 3 22 19 27 4 67 2 23 21 The Northeast Region comprises the following states: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont. 4 ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey
+21 (+19)% South Staffing levels are expected to grow during the next three months by 24 percent of businesses surveyed in the South. With 3 percent of regional employers anticipating a decline in payrolls and 72% expecting no change, the Outlook is +21%. Once seasonal adjustment is applied to the data, employers in the South report the strongest Outlook in more than 10 years. Hiring intentions remain relatively stable when compared with the previous quarter, and are slightly stronger in comparison with this time one year ago. Nondurable Goods Manufacturing sector employers in the South report a moderately stronger hiring climate in comparison with Quarter 2 18, and hiring prospects are slightly stronger in four sectors: Construction, Other Services, Transportation & Utilities and Wholesale & Retail Trade. Employers in three of the South s 12 industry sectors report relatively stable hiring plans when compared with the previous quarter: Education & Health Services, Information and Durable Goods Manufacturing. Labor markets weaken in four industry sectors across the region quarter-over-quarter, according to employers in the South. A slight decline in hiring prospects is reported for Financial Activities, Government, Leisure & Hospitality and Professional & Business Services. 35 30 25 10 5 0-5 Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 No bar indicates Outlook of zero. Revised methodology effective Quarter 1 09. Industry Increase Decrease No Change Don t Know Outlook Q3 18 Seasonally Adjusted % % % % % % All Industries South Construction Education & Health Services Financial Activities Government Information Leisure & Hospitality Manufacturing Durable Goods Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Other Services Professional & Business Services Transportation & Utilities Wholesale & Retail Trade 24 3 72 1 21 19 25 3 70 2 22 21 3 75 1 18 16 3 81 1 12 12 19 2 77 2 17 16 22 6 72 0 16 14 38 7 54 1 31 28 22 1 76 1 21 19 3 76 1 17 16 17 2 80 1 14 25 1 73 1 24 22 26 3 69 2 23 27 3 68 2 24 23 The South Region comprises the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico along with the following states: Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia. ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey 5
+ (+17)% West In the West, 24 percent of businesses surveyed anticipate an increase in payrolls during Quarter 3 18, while 4 percent expect staffing levels to decrease and 70% of employers expect no change, the resulting Net Employment Outlook for the region is +%. Once the data is adjusted to allow for seasonal variation, hiring prospects are slightly weaker in comparison with the second quarter of 18, but remain relatively stable year-over-year. When compared with Quarter 2 18, hiring plans are moderately stronger in the West s Transportation & Utilities sector. Outlooks improve slightly for employers in four industry sectors: Durable Goods Manufacturing, Nondurable Goods Manufacturing, Other Services and Professional & Business Services. Hiring intentions remain relatively stable in the region s Construction, Financial Activities and Government sectors when compared with the previous quarter. Information sector employers in the West report a considerable quarter-over-quarter decline in hiring prospects, and Outlooks are moderately weaker in the Education & Health Services and Leisure & Hospitality sectors. Slightly weaker hiring plans are reported by Wholesale & Retail Trade sector employers when compared to the second quarter of 18. 35 30 25 10 5 0-5 Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 No bar indicates Outlook of zero. Revised methodology effective Quarter 1 09. Industry Increase Decrease No Change Don t Know Outlook Q3 18 Seasonally Adjusted % % % % % % All Industries West Construction Education & Health Services Financial Activities Government Information Leisure & Hospitality Manufacturing Durable Goods Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Other Services Professional & Business Services Transportation & Utilities Wholesale & Retail Trade 24 4 70 2 17 33 2 63 2 31 22 17 6 74 3 11 12 18 1 79 2 17 18 23 3 70 4 18 4 79 2 11 12 29 7 63 1 22 17 26 3 69 2 23 19 1 77 2 19 18 18 2 79 1 16 12 29 2 66 3 27 24 33 3 63 1 30 28 27 4 67 2 23 22 The West Region comprises the following states: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming. 6 ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey
Metropolitan Statistical Areas For Quarter 3 18, 100 of the largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) in the United States report positive Outlooks. Additional survey results for each MSA are available at meos-press.manpowergroup.us. Outlook Q3 18 Metropolitan Statistical Areas 35% Indianapolis 34% Raleigh 33% Milwaukee 31% Grand Rapids 30% Colorado Springs, Greenville, Houston, Madison 28% Birmingham 27% Baltimore, Dallas, Greensboro, Rochester 26% Buffalo, Jacksonville, Omaha, Portland, Syracuse 25% Boston, Chattanooga, Columbia, Deltona, Denver, Harrisburg 24% Albuquerque, Charleston, Detroit, Memphis, Minneapolis, Sacramento 23% Baton Rouge, Columbus, Des Moines, Virginia Beach 22% Bridgeport, Charlotte, Jackson, North Port, Phoenix, Pittsburgh, Provo 21% Boise City, Chicago, Cincinnati, Honolulu, McAllen, Ogden, Richmond, Salt Lake City, San Diego, Spokane, Tulsa % Augusta, Nashville, San Francisco, Washington, Worcester 19% Albany, Atlanta, El Paso, Miami, Palm Bay, Providence, San Jose, Stockton, Wichita, Winston-Salem 18% Dayton, Orlando, San Antonio, Toledo, Tucson 17% Kansas City, Oklahoma City, St Louis, Youngstown 16% Akron, Los Angeles, Louisville, Oxnard, Riverside, Seattle, Springfield % Fresno, Lakeland, Las Vegas 14% Cleveland, Hartford, Knoxville, New York, Philadelphia, Tampa 13% Allentown, Bakersfield, New Orleans, Scranton 12% Cape Coral, New Haven 11% Little Rock 10% Austin Survey results are available for the 100 largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas based on business establishment count. ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey 7
Global Employment Outlook ManpowerGroup interviewed nearly 60,000 employers across 44 countries and territories to forecast labor market activity* in Quarter 3 18. All participants were asked, How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of September 18 as compared to the current quarter? Croatian employers report the region s strongest third-quarter hiring plans, and also share with Japan the strongest hiring intentions worldwide. Italian employers report the region s weakest Outlook and, as noted above, the only negative hiring intentions among the 44 countries and territories surveyed. Third-quarter results indicate that, despite an uncertain geopolitical outlook, employer confidence remains mostly resilient across the globe. Payrolls are expected to grow by varying degrees in all countries and territories with the exception of Italy where the Outlook is negative for the second consecutive quarter. A clear majority of employers polled indicate they will maintain or add to their workforces, and only a fraction plan to reduce payrolls. Examples of notable optimism include Finland where the Outlook is the strongest reported since the country started the survey nearly six years ago, and in China where employers report their most optimistic hiring plans in three years. Conversely, the forecast in Panama is the weakest reported since the survey was launched in 10. And New Zealand s forecast is the least optimistic reported since 09. When compared to the prior quarter s results, forecasts improve in 19 countries and territories, decline in 18 and remain unchanged in seven. A more favorable pattern emerges when forecasts are compared with last year at this time as hiring intentions improve in 24 countries, decline in only 12 and remain unchanged in seven.** Globally, the strongest third-quarter hiring plans are reported in Japan, Croatia, Taiwan, Hungary and the United States. The weakest forecasts are reported in Italy, Panama and Spain. In the Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA) region workforce gains are forecast in 25 of 26 countries. Hiring plans improve in 12 countries quarter-overquarter, weaken in 10 and are unchanged in four. In a year-over-year comparison, Outlooks improve in 13 countries, decline in six and are unchanged in six. Payrolls are expected to grow in all eight Asia Pacific countries and territories. Outlooks improve in five countries and territories when compared to the prior quarter, decline in two and are unchanged in one. In a year-over-year comparison the hiring pace is expected to improve in six countries and territories, decline in one and remain unchanged in one. Employers in Japan and Taiwan report the region s most optimistic forecasts, with the region s weakest forecasts in New Zealand and Australia. Positive Outlooks are also reported in the 10 countries surveyed in the Americas. However, when compared to the April-June quarter, hiring confidence strengthens in only two countries, dips in six and is unchanged in two. In the year-over-year comparison, hiring prospects improve in five countries and weaken in the remaining five. For the third consecutive quarter employers in the United States report the strongest hiring plans in the Americas, while opportunities for job seekers are expected to be weakest in Panama and Brazil. Full survey results for each of the 44 countries and territories included in this quarter s survey, plus regional and global comparisons, can be found at www.manpowergroup.com/meos The next ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey will be released on 11 September and will forecast labor market activity for the fourth quarter of 18. * Commentary is based on seasonally adjusted data where available. Data is not seasonally adjusted for Croatia or Portugal. ** Croatia joined the survey in the prior quarter and has no year-over-year comparison data. 8 ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey
About the Survey The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey is conducted quarterly to measure employers intentions to increase or decrease the number of employees in their workforces during the next quarter. ManpowerGroup s comprehensive forecast of employer hiring plans has been running for more than 55 years and is one of the most trusted surveys of employment activity in the world. Various factors underpin the success of the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey: Unique: It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and area of focus. Projective: The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey is the most extensive, forward-looking employment survey in the world, asking employers to forecast employment over the next quarter. In contrast, other surveys and studies focus on retrospective data to report on what occurred in the past. Independent: The survey is conducted with a representative sample of employers from throughout the countries and territories in which it is conducted. The survey participants are not derived from ManpowerGroup s customer base. Robust: The survey is based on interviews with nearly 60,000 public and private employers across 44 countries and territories to measure anticipated employment trends each quarter. This sample allows for analysis to be performed across specific sectors and regions to provide more detailed information. Focused: For more than 55 years the survey has derived all of its information from a single question: For the Quarter 3 18 research, all employers participating in the survey worldwide are asked the same question, How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of September 18 as compared to the current quarter? Methodology The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey is conducted using a validated methodology, in accordance with the highest standards in market research. The survey has been structured to be representative of each national economy. The margin of error for all national, regional and global data is not greater than +/- 3.9%. Outlook Throughout this report, we use the term Net Employment Outlook. This figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage of employers expecting to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter. The result of this calculation is the Outlook. Outlooks for countries and territories that have accumulated at least 17 quarters of data are reported in a seasonally adjusted format unless otherwise stated. Seasonal adjustments have been applied to the data for all participating countries except Croatia and Portugal. ManpowerGroup intends to add seasonal adjustments to the data for other countries in the future, as more historical data is compiled. Note that in Quarter 2 08, ManpowerGroup adopted the TRAMO-SEATS method of seasonal adjustment for data. Additional Information Available Find complete survey results, including reports for the top 100 Metropolitan Statistical Areas, 50 states, District of Columbia and Puerto Rico on our website at press.manpower.com. About ManpowerGroup ManpowerGroup (NYSE: MAN), the leading global workforce solutions company, helps organizations transform in a fast-changing world of work by sourcing, assessing, developing and managing the talent that enables them to win. We develop innovative solutions for hundreds of thousands of organizations every year, providing them with skilled talent while finding meaningful, sustainable employment for millions of people across a wide range of industries and skills. Our expert family of brands Manpower, Experis, Right Management and ManpowerGroup Solutions creates substantially more value for candidates and clients across 80 countries and territories and has done so for 70 years. In 18, ManpowerGroup was named one of the World s Most Ethical Companies for the ninth year and one of Fortune s Most Admired Companies for the sixteenth year, confirming our position as the most trusted and admired brand in the industry. See how ManpowerGroup is powering the future of work: www.manpowergroup.com. ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey 9
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