Larry DeBoer Purdue University September 2011 Real GDP Growth Real Consumption Spending Growth 1
Index of Consumer Sentiment 57.8 Sept 11 Savings Rate (percent of disposable income) Real Investment Spending Growth 2
Residential Building Permits Real House Price Index Auto and Light Truck Sales (annual basis) 3
Unemployment Rate Payroll Employment CPI Inflation, All Items and Core All Items Core (less food and energy) 4
Crude Oil Price, Nominal and Real Nominal Real Michigan Ohio Indiana Wisconsin Pennsylvania Illinois State Personal Income Growth, 1999-2007 Washington New Hampshire Montana North Dakota Minnesota Vermont Maine Oregon Massachusetts Idaho South Dakota Wisconsin New York Wyoming Michigan Rhode Island California Nevada Utah Colorado Nebraska Kansas Iowa Missouri Illinois Pennsylvania Ohio Indiana West Virginia Virginia Kentucky New Jersey Delaware Connecticut Tennessee North Carolina Maryland Arizona New Mexico Oklahoma Arkansas South Carolina Alaska Texas Louisiana Mississippi Alabama Georgia Florida Percent Income Growth 0 to 45 45 to 60 60 to 100 Hawaii 5
Manufacturing Employment 6
State Income Growth, Great Recession, 2007IV - 2009II New Hampshire Washington Montana North Dakota Maine Vermont Minnesota Oregon Massachusetts Idaho New York Wisconsin South Dakota Wyoming Michigan Nebraska Rhode Island Pennsylvania Iowa Connecticut Ohio Nevada Utah California Illinois New Jersey Indiana Colorado West Virginia Kansas Missouri Kentucky Maryland North Carolina Tennessee Arizona Delaware Virginia Oklahoma New Mexico Arkansas South Carolina Percent Income Growth -6 to 0 Georgia Mississippi Texas Alabama 0 to 2 Louisiana 2 to 8 Alaska Florida Hawaii State Income Growth, Recovery, 2009II - 2011 I New Hampshire Washington Montana North Dakota Maine Vermont Minnesota Oregon Massachusetts Idaho New York Wisconsin South Dakota Wyoming Michigan Nebraska Rhode Island Pennsylvania Iowa Ohio Nevada Utah California Illinois Indiana Colorado West Virginia Kansas Missouri Delaware Virginia Kentucky North Carolina Tennessee Arizona Connecticut New Jersey Maryland Oklahoma New Mexico Arkansas South Carolina Percent Income Growth 0 to 5 Georgia Mississippi Texas Alabama 5 to 7 Louisiana 7 to 20 Alaska Florida Hawaii Real Government Purchases Growth 7
Federal Budget Balance as Percent of GDP Federal Government Debt as Percent of GDP Federal Budget, 2010 Deficit, $1,294 38% 8
Federal Funds Interest Rates 9
The Committee also decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013. FOMC, September 21, 2011 Ben Bernanke, Fed Chair Voting against the action were: Richard W. Fisher, Narayana Kocherlakota, and Charles I. Plosser.... The Committee intends to purchase, by the end of June 2012, $400 billion of Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 6 years to 30 years and to sell an equal amount of Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 3 years or less. This program should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates and help make broader financial conditions more accommodative. FOMC, September 21, 2011 Operation Twist Ben Bernanke, Fed Chair Treasury 10-Year Bond Interest Rate, daily, 1/2/07 to 9/23/11 10
Corporate Bond Yields, AAA and BAA, daily 1/3/07 to 9/23/11 BAA AAA Monetary Base and Money Stock Monetary Base Money Stock Real Export and Import Spending Growth Imports Exports Trade Balance 11
Exchange Rates, Euro and Yuan per Dollar China Yuan Euro Euro per Dollar Exchange Rate, daily, 1/4/07 to 9/23/11 12
Yuan per Dollar Exchange Rate, daily, 1/4/07 to 9/23/11 Inflation in China Some Macroeconomic Forecasts for 2012 GDP Inflation Unemp- Int. Rate Int. Rate Forecast & Date Growth (CPI) loyment 3-mo. T 10-yr. T Congressional 3.1% 1.0% 8.4% 1.1% 3.8% Budget Office January 2011 http://www.cbo.gov RSQE 3.1% 1.9% 8.7% 0.2% 3.3% Univ. of Michigan 6/16/2011 http://www.umich.edu/~rsqe/pages/forecasts.html Survey of Professional 2.6% 2.0% 8.6% 0.4% 3.5% Forecasters Philadelphia Federal Reserve 8/12/2011 http://www.phil.frb.org/econ/spf/ DeBoer, August 2011 2.5% 1.5% 9.0% 0.2% 3.0% Current, August 2011 1.6% 3.4% 9.1% 0.04% 3.0% KEY: 3-mo. T: Three month Treasury note 13
Larry DeBoer Purdue University September 2011 14