Real Time Economic Indicators from the Online Labor Market Tara M. Sinclair Chief Economist, Indeed Indeed Hiring Lab @TaraSinc blog.indeed.com
Economic Forecasts Fail Miserably at Key Times Real GDP Growth (%) 10 Real GDP Growth Data 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8-10 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Philadelphia Fed Survey, and Fed Greenbooks
Economic Forecasts Fail Miserably at Key Times Real GDP Growth (%) 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8 Real GDP Growth Data SPF One Year Ahead Forecasts -10 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Philadelphia Fed Survey, and Fed Greenbooks
Economic Forecasts Fail Miserably at Key Times Real GDP Growth (%) 10 Real GDP Growth Data SPF One Year Ahead Forecasts Fed Staff One Year Ahead Forecasts 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8-10 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Philadelphia Fed Survey, and Fed Greenbooks
PCE Inflation Forecasts PCE Inflation (%) 6 PCE Inflation Data 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Philadelphia Fed Survey, and Fed Greenbooks
PCE Inflation Forecasts PCE Inflation (%) 6 PCE Inflation Data SPF One Year Ahead Forecasts 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Philadelphia Fed Survey, and Fed Greenbooks
PCE Inflation Forecasts PCE Inflation (%) 6 PCE Inflation Data SPF One Year Ahead Forecasts Fed Staff One Year Ahead Forecasts 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Philadelphia Fed Survey, and Fed Greenbooks
Example: US Employment Forecasts Employment (in Thousands) Employment Data 140,000 138,000 136,000 134,000 132,000 130,000 128,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: U.S. Bureau of Statistics, Philadelphia Fed Survey
Example: US Employment Forecasts Employment (in Thousands) 140,000 Employment Data 1-Year Ahead Employment Forecast from the Survey of Professional Forecasters 138,000 136,000 134,000 132,000 130,000 128,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: U.S. Bureau of Statistics, Philadelphia Fed Survey
Example: US Employment Forecasts Employment (in Thousands) 140,000 138,000 Employment Data 1-Year Ahead Employment Forecast from the Survey of Professional Forecasters Mid 2009: Overestimated by over 7M jobs! 136,000 134,000 132,000 130,000 128,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: U.S. Bureau of Statistics, Philadelphia Fed Survey
U.S. Real GDP Growth Estimates 1st Quarter 2015
U.S. Real GDP Growth Estimates 1st Quarter 2015 Advance Estimate 4/29/15 0.2
U.S. Real GDP Growth Estimates 1st Quarter 2015 Advance Estimate 4/29/15 0.2-0.7 Second Estimate 5/29/15
U.S. Real GDP Growth Estimates 1st Quarter 2015 Advance Estimate 4/29/15 0.2-0.7 Second Estimate 5/29/15-0.2 Third Estimate 6/24/15
U.S. Real GDP Growth Estimates 1st Quarter 2015 Advance Estimate 4/29/15 0.2 Annual Revision 7/30/15 0.6-0.7 Second Estimate 5/29/15-0.2 Third Estimate 6/24/15
Economists put decimal points in their forecasts to show they have a sense of humor. - William Gilmore Simms
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Hospitality and Manufacturing Postings 400,000 Hospitality Manufacturing 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 January 10 January 11 January 12 January 13 January 14 January 15 Source: Indeed Data
Internet of Things Percentage of matching job postings 3 2 1 0 June 2012 June 2013 June 2014 June 2015 Source: Indeed Data
Deep Learning Percentage of matching job postings 3 2 1 0 June 2012 June 2013 June 2014 June 2015 Source: Indeed Data
Virtual Reality Percentage of matching job postings 3 2 1 0 June 2012 June 2013 June 2014 June 2015 Source: Indeed Data
Hospitality Job postings Job seeker interest +51% +33% Transportation Job postings Job seeker interest +101% +29% Job postings Job seeker interest Education +28% +29% Source: Indeed Data
Per 10K Total Jobs Price of Crude Oil Oil Jobs 7.5 90 5 60 2.5 30 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 0 Oil price as depicted by the WTI (NYMEX), Indeed job search and listings represent a ratio of postings for oil-related jobs to 10,000 total jobs in the U.S.
Per 10K Total Jobs Price of Crude Oil Searches for Oil Jobs 3 90 2 60 1 30 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 0 Oil price as depicted by the WTI (NYMEX), Indeed job search and listings represent a ratio of postings for oil-related jobs to 10,000 total jobs in the U.S.
Share of searches related to flexibility Index 2013Q1=100 300 Australia United States Japan 225 150 75 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Indeed Data
40% Share of GR searches going outside of GR May 1 July 5 35% 30% 25% 20% After Greece announced a referendum vote on the EU s latest bailout offer. 15% 10% 5/1/2015 5/15/2015 5/29/2015 6/12/2015 6/26/2015 Source: Indeed Data
Tara M. Sinclair Chief Economist, Indeed Indeed Hiring Lab @TaraSinc blog.indeed.com