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CAREERBUILDER.COM AND USA TODAY S Q3 JOB FORECAST The latest job forecast from CareerBuilder.com and USA TODAY points to a continued, gradual downshift in job creation as businesses grapple with the effects of subpar economic growth, escalating oil prices, the collapse of the subprime mortgage market and timid consumer spending. It s a slower job market, but we re not seeing aggressive declines in employment levels reminiscent of 2001, said Matt Ferguson, CEO of CareerBuilder.com. Nearly one-in-four employers plan to add full-time, permanent employees in the third quarter, a marginal decrease from the second quarter. The U.S. hiring environment is keeping with the status quo: cautious, but still competitive in select, in-demand industries. Thirty-four percent of employers reported they have slowed their hiring pace this year compared to 2007 due to uncertainties around the economy. Nearly one-infive employers (19 percent) expect the economy will begin to improve in the second half of, helping to fuel new business initiatives and staff expansions. Thirty-two percent anticipate an improvement in the first half of 2009 while 16 percent said the economy is likelier to turn around in the second half of 2009. CareerBuilder.com and USA TODAY surveyed more than 2,900 hiring managers and human resource professionals and over 7,900 workers across industries. Are you retaining workers that you normally would not due to the shortage of qualified labor? 71.2% Though you are not actively looking for a new job, would you be open to one if you came across the right opportunity? 17.1% 28.8% Yes No Are you using this time, when employers are slowing their hiring pace, to replace lower-performing employees with new talent? 73.6% 26.4% Yes No THREE TRENDS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF 1) Employers are holding on to C employees Despite losing an average of 65,000 jobs per month in the U.S. from January through May, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, stiff competition for new talent ensues. Thirty-five percent of employers reported they currently have open positions for which they can t find qualified candidates. Twenty-nine percent admitted they are retaining workers that they normally would not due to the lack of available talent. 82.9% Yes No This quarter (2nd quarter, Apr. 1 - Jun. 30, ), is your company, at your location, increasing, decreasing or making no change in its number of full-time, permanent employees? 2) Employers are leveraging the softer job market to strengthen staffs On the other hand, some employers are taking advantage of a slower hiring pace in the U.S. to enhance their own talent pool. Twenty-six percent of hiring managers said they are using this time to replace lower-performing employees with new, better talent. 59.6% 1.3% 26.4% 12.7% Increasing Decreasing No Change Company Undecided 2
3) More workers are becoming passive job seekers Nearly one-in-four workers (24 percent) said they are fearful of layoffs at their firms. The desire to find greener pastures with another employer that can offer better compensation and career advancement, more flexibility and more stability is driving consideration of new opportunities. Nearly one-in-five workers reported they are actively looking for a new job. Among those workers not actively looking for a job, 83 percent said they would be open to a new one if they came across the right opportunity - a significant jump from 55 percent in 2006. If your company, at your location, employs hourly workers, how have their hours on average changed in Q2 compared to Q2 2007? 6 5 4 3 2 1 13.3% Hours were cut 10.8% Hours were increased 59.2% Hours stayed the same 12.4% Company doesn t employ hourly workers 4.3% Not sure HIRING IN Q2 Twenty-six percent of employers said they increased their number of full-time, permanent employees in the second quarter. Sixty percent reported no change in staff levels from April through June while 13 percent reported a reduction in headcount and 1 percent was undecided. When asked if hours had changed, on average, for hourly workers in Q2 year over year, 59 percent reported no change in the number of hours offered. Eleven percent reported that hours had increased while 13 percent said hours were cut and 4 percent were unsure. Twelve percent of respondents said their companies don t employ hourly workers. HIRING IN Q3 Looking forward, 24 percent of employers plan to add full-time, permanent employees in the third quarter, a marginal decline from the second quarter. At the same time, 9 percent expect to decrease headcount, an improvement over the second quarter, while 62 percent expect no change and 5 percent are undecided. Hiring By Region Recruitment plans remain strongest in the South and West. Twenty-eight percent of employers in the South and 27 percent in the West plan to add full-time, permanent staff in the next three months compared to 22 percent in the Northeast and 20 percent in the Midwest. In turn, plans to reduce staff levels are higher in the Northeast and Midwest at 11 percent and 9 percent respectively compared to 8 percent in the South and 7 percent in the West. Hiring By Industry Comparing industries, Information Technology continues to boast the greatest demand with 37 percent of IT employers planning to add full-time, permanent employees in the third quarter. Despite job losses in temporary staffing this year, In the 3rd quarter (Jul. 1 - Sep. 30, ), does your company, at your location, plan to increase, decrease or make no change in its number of full-time, permanent employees? 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 61.9% 5.2% Hiring By Region - In the 3rd quarter, does your company, at your location, plan to increase, decrease or make no change in its number of full-time, permanent employees? 61.4% 27.6% 21.9% 26.7% 20.1% 10.7% 9.4% 8.1% 6.6% 24.2% 8.7% 66.4% 58.9% 61.4% 5.9% 5.4% 4.1% 5.3% Increase Decrease No Change Company undecided Increase Decrease No Change Company Undecided Northeast Midwest South West Hiring By Industry - Amount of Employers Planning to Increase Their Number of Full-time, Permanent Employees at Their Location in Q3 IT Professional & Business Services Large Healthcare Sales Hospitality Transportation & Utilities Financial Services Retail 17.6% 20.4% 26.1% 31.1% 29.8% 26.5% 26.3% 37.0% 5.0% 1 15.0% 2 25.0% 3 35.0% 4 3
31 percent of hiring managers in the broader Professional & Business Services category are expecting to add jobs. Thirty percent of large Healthcare employers (50 or more employees) are expanding staffs in the upcoming quarter followed by 27 percent in Sales and 26 percent in Hospitality and Transportation/Utilities. The number of employers planning to increase headcount is lower for Financial Services and Retail at 20 percent and 18 percent respectively. Hiring By Company Size From small and medium-sized businesses to large enterprises, employers of all sizes plan to contribute to job creation in the second half of the year. Twentyseven percent of employers with more than 250 employees expect to add fulltime, permanent positions in the next three months compared to 28 percent of those with 51 to 250 employees and 18 percent of those with 1 to 50 employees. Layoffs 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Hiring By Company Size - In the 3rd quarter, does your company, at your location, plan to increase, decrease or make no change in its number of full-time, permanent employees? 17.7% 28.4% 27.1% 6.8% 10.7% 6.7% 69.7% 59.4% 58.1% 5.6% 5.4% 3.9% Increase Decrease No change Company undecided 1 to 50 employees 51 to 250 employees More than 250 employees Thirteen percent of hiring managers reported there were layoffs at their locations in the second quarter. Eighty-five percent said layoffs did not occur while 2 percent were unsure. Ten percent anticipate layoffs at their locations in the third quarter while 81 percent expect no change and 10 percent are unsure. Were there layoffs of full-time, permanent staff, at your location, in Q2? Do you anticipate layoffs of full-time, permanent staff, at your location, in Q3? 10 84.9% 80.7% COMPENSATION IN Q3 Job seekers, especially those applying for positions in high-skill, high-demand areas such as Healthcare, IT and Engineering, are likely to receive more generous offers from employers. Sixty-four percent of hiring managers expect to provide an increase in salaries for full-time, permanent employees in the third quarter, perpetuating an existing trend of competitive recruitment measures for top talent. Thirty-seven percent project the average raise will range between 1 and 3 percent, 25 percent expect an average raise of 4 to 10 percent and 2 percent expect salaries to increase by 11 percent or more. Twenty-nine percent reported that they don t plan to change compensation levels, 2 percent are planning a decrease and 5 percent are undecided. 8 6 4 2 12.8% 9.6% 2.3% 9.7% Yes No Not Sure What do you expect the average change in salaries will be for full-time, permanent employees, at your location, in the 3rd quarter of compared to the 3rd quarter of 2007? Undecided 4.8% Q2 Q3 JOB CHANGES Nineteen percent of workers reported they are actively looking for a new job. Retail workers are among the more likely to report plans to change jobs at 24 percent, followed by Sales at 22 percent, Hospitality at 21 percent and IT at 20 percent. Nineteen percent of workers in Professional and Business Services are actively seeking a new employer followed by 17 percent in Financial Services, 16 percent in large Healthcare organizations and 15 percent in Transportation/Utilities. Decrease 2.3% No change 28.6% 11% increase or more 1.8% 4-10% increase 25.3% 1-3% increase 37.1% 5.0% 1 15.0% 2 25.0% 3 35.0% 4 4
Thirty-six percent of workers reported they change jobs every three to five. More than half (55 percent) have worked for five or more employers; one-inten (11 percent) have worked for ten or more employers. Twenty-eight percent of workers reported it took them two months or longer to find their last job; one-in-ten (11 percent) said it took more than 6 months. Survey Methodology This survey was conducted online within the U.S. by Harris Interactive on behalf of CareerBuilder.com and USA TODAY among 2,922 hiring managers and human resource professionals (employed full-time; not self-employed; with at least significant involvement in hiring decisions); and 7,960 U.S. employees (employed full-time; not self-employed) ages 18 and over between May 22 and June 13, (percentages for some questions are based on a subset of U.S. employers or employees, based on their responses to certain questions). With a pure probability sample of 2,922 and 7,960, one could say with a 95 percent probability that the overall results have a sampling error of +/- 1.8 percentage points and +/- 1.1 percentage points, respectively. Sampling error for data from sub-samples is higher and varies. Retail Sales Hospitality IT Professional & Business Services Financial Services Large Healthcare Transportation & Utilities 35.0% 3 25.0% 2 15.0% 1 4.0% 5.0% Every year or more often Job Search By Industry - Amount of Workers Actively Looking for a New Job How often do you change jobs on average? 8.5% Every two 13.1% Every three 23.3% Every five 30.7% Every ten 15.2% 22.4% 20.5% 19.8% 18.6% 16.6% 16.2% 5.0% 1 15.0% 2 25.0% 20.6% I have never changed jobs 23.7% How many employers have you worked for in your career? 29.4% 3 35.0% 3 25.0% 18.5% 2 15.0% 1 5.0% 11.0% 11.1% 1 to 3 4 to 5 6 to 7 8 to 10 More than 10 5
About CareerBuilder.com CareerBuilder.com is the nation s largest online job site with more than 23 million unique visitors and over 1.6 million jobs. Owned by Gannett Co., Inc. (NYSE:GCI), Tribune Company, The McClatchy Company (NYSE:MNI) and Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT), the company offers a vast online and print network to help job seekers connect with employers. CareerBuilder.com powers the career centers for more than 1,600 partners, including 140 newspapers and leading portals such as America Online and MSN. More than 300,000 employers take advantage of CareerBuilder.com s easy job postings, 26 million-plus resumes, Diversity Channel and more. CareerBuilder.com and its subsidiaries operate in the U.S., Europe, Canada and Asia. For more information, visit http://www.careerbuilder.com. Media Contact Jennifer Grasz Senior Director, Corporate Communications 773-527-1164 Jennifer.Grasz@careerbuilder.com 6