RESEARCH 2Q 2018 CLEVELAND INDUSTRIAL MARKET INDUSTRIAL MARKET REMAINS STEADY AS CONSTRUCTION HITS AN ALL-TIME HIGH Despite an overall negative tenancy return, the Greater Cleveland industrial market continued to show signs of activity and stability in the second quarter of 2018. The market gave back 245,778 square feet, yet the overall vacancy rate remained under 6. for the third consecutive quarter, coming in at 5.9%, 10 basis points higher than last quarter. Four out of the six industrial submarkets posted vacancy gains and negative absorption. However, the market s vacancy has increasingly become tighter over the past five years, having dropped by 2.7% from 8. in second-quarter 2013. In fact, the graph to the right illustrates how, after peaking at 12. in the first quarter of 2011, industrial vacancy has declined slowly yet steadily in subsequent quarters. As vacancy increased ever so slightly, the overall market s average asking rental rate decreased in second-quarter 2018 to $4.29/SF, down $0.05/SF from the previous quarter. The rental rate has stayed above $4.00/SF since first-quarter 2016, after having spent the better part of eight years below that mark. The suburban submarkets continued to command the highest rental rates, and the Southwest submarket s $5.35/SF, down $0.19/SF from last quarter, was again the highest. The Southeast had the second-highest rental rate at $5.32/SF, up $0.10/SF from the first quarter. The Northwest submarket followed the Southeast with an average rental rate of $5.04/SF, up $0.44/SF to move past the South Central submarket, which came in at $4.87/SF, up $0.05/SF. The Northeast submarket was the second lowest of all the submarkets and had the lowest average asking rental rate of the suburban submarkets at $4.44/SF, down $0.33/SF from last quarter. A central storyline of the second quarter was industrial construction, which ballooned to 3,554,749 square feet. In fact, every submarket has at least one building that is currently being built. In the Northeast, the long-vacant Euclid Square Mall property finally has activity, as the construction of a new, 650,000-square-foot Amazon facility began there. Also announced in the Northeast was a 130,000-square foot manufacturing building that Weston is building on Jet Center Drive. In the Southeast submarket, owner/developer Westminster Capital announced a 434,000-square-foot speculative building at 43000 Victory Parkway (Victory Commerce Center), which is due to deliver in the first quarter of 2019. Also announced was the expansion of the neighboring property at 42500 Victory Parkway by 60,580 square feet. Another newly announced project was a 103,527-square-foot warehouse (Cedar Tree Center I) at 3620 Mallard Run in the Northwest submarket. $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 CURRENT CONDITIONS Vacancy stayed below 6. for the third consecutive quarter, while the overall average asking rent dipped slightly Industrial construction is booming, with over 3.5 million square feet currently being built throughout the area The Northeast, Southeast and Southwest submarkets remain active despite a slight setbacks in vacancy; Northwest submarket s vacancy now below 2. MARKET ANALYSIS and Vacancy $0 2Q08 2Q09 2Q10 2Q11 2Q12 2Q13 2Q14 2Q15 2Q16 2Q17 2Q18 3 2 1 0-1 Average Vacancy (%) Net Absorption (SF, Millions) MARKET SUMMARY Current Quarter Prior Quarter Year Ago Period 12 Month Forecast Inventory 284 MSF 284 MSF 291 MSF é Vacancy Rate 5.9% 5.8% 6.3% ê Quarterly Net Absorption (245,778) (96,545) (209,870) é Average $4.29 $4.34 $4.30 é Under Construction 3.55 M 1.99 M 538,188 é Deliveries 327,600 135,000 60,000 é 1 1 1-2 2Q08 2Q09 2Q10 2Q11 2Q12 2Q13 2Q14 2Q15 2Q16 2Q17 2Q18 8% NEWMARK KNIGHT FRANK 2018 RESEARCH 1
The Northwest once again had the lowest vacancy of any submarket at 1.8%, down 40 basis points from last quarter. It also posted 32,810 square feet of positive absorption. In this submarket, Amware purchased the former Riddell building at 669 Sugar Lane for $3.95 million, or $29/SF. The company has announced plans to use the 136,920-square-foot Elyria property as a distribution facility. ACTIVITY A-PLENTY IN NORTHEAST, SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST SUBMARKETS The Northeast submarket s vacancy rate increased by 10 basis points to 5. after posting 38,923 square feet of negative absorption. The submarket was active, however. Orbis signed a 276,000-square-foot lease in Mentor at the former Caterpillar plant at 7206 Justin Way, with plans to consolidate its operations from 8100 and 9050 Tyler Boulevard, also in Mentor. Accurate Metal Sawing also announced plans to relocate to the former Caterpillar plant, to approximately 55,000 square feet at 7272 Justin Way. Accurate Metal Sawing will vacate 8989 Tyler Boulevard, where MUM Industries will expand into 89,364 square feet from approximately 47,000 square feet at 7570 Tyler Boulevard. Another newsworthy development in the Northeast during the second quarter of 2018 was the delivery of Heilind Electronics new, 181,000- square-foot warehouse and office at 6240 Tin Man Road. The estimated $16.5 million project will eventually bring approximately 130 jobs to Mentor. The city of Painesville s industrial sector also received two potential jolts in the Northeast, as AeroControlex won an Ohio state tax credit that will enable the control valve and pump assembly manufacturer to expand its existing 63,900-square-foot facility at 313 Gillet Street by another 30,000 square feet. Less than two miles away at 787 Renaissance Parkway, thermoset plastics company Mar-Bal announced its intent to purchase a 5.0-acre parcel of land adjacent to its recently occupied building, so that the firm can expand its operations. The Southwest submarket posted the second-lowest vacancy of any submarket at 3.9%, despite increasing 30 basis points from last quarter because of 36,169 square feet of negative absorption. A couple of significant leases took place in this submarket in the second quarter, including plastics manufacturer Cell-O-Core signing and occupying a 75,000-square-foot lease at the state-of-the-art, STAG Industrialowned, single-tenant warehouse at 5160 Greenwich Road in Seville. Action Industries signed a 73,000-square-foot lease at 13325 Darice Parkway in an AIC Ventures-owned warehouse facility in Strongsville. Also in the Southwest, grocery chain Aldi was awarded an Ohio state tax credit that will allow the company to proceed with an expansion project at its 200,000-square-foot distribution center located at 1319 West 130th Street in Hinckley Township. In the quarter s largest sale, Scannell Properties sold the 185,840-square-foot speculative warehouse it had built in fourth-quarter 2016 at 14720 Foltz Industrial Parkway in Strongsville to Founders Properties, LLC for $14.7 million, or $79/SF. There is currently 23,448 square feet available for lease at this building. Scannell is currently constructing a second 179,296- square-foot speculative warehouse on the site. The South Central submarket s vacancy rate decreased 90 basis points from the first quarter to 8.5%, after recording 300,783 square feet in absorption in the second quarter, which led all submarkets. Nevertheless, the South Central submarket s vacancy remained the highest in the Cleveland market. A notable delivery took place here in the second quarter, with the newly constructed, 13,750-square-foot flex facility coming online at 1319 Schaaf Road in Brooklyn Heights. The Downtown submarket once again had the lowest asking rental rate of all the submarkets at $3.16/SF, though it increased by $0.09/SF from last quarter. The increase came despite 224,473 square feet in negative absorption that precipitated a vacancy increase of 30 basis points to 8.1%. Although vacancy has stood in the single digits for a while, the Downtown industrial submarket, despite having the most inventory, continued to underwhelm. The always-relevant Southeast submarket made news on several fronts, starting with the announcement of Swagelok Company launching a search for a new global headquarters and innovation center. The company currently occupies 320,000 square feet of industrial and office space at 29500 Solon Road. The announcement did not indicate any geographic parameters for the project. Also in the Southeast, a prospective 404,000-square-foot O Reilly Auto Parts distribution center was announced for construction at Twinsburg s CornerStone Business Park. Prominent commercial real estate developer Scannell Properties is also constructing another speculative 299,000-square-foot facility at CornerStone. Mantua Manufacturing and Rite Operations also began the process of consolidating into an allnew, 126,350-square-foot, state-of-the-art facility at 31050 Diamond Parkway in Glenwillow that delivered in the second quarter. Vacancy in the Southeast increased by 30 basis points to 4.8%. VACANCY BY SUBMARKET Vacancy Rate (%) Downtown Northeast Northwest South Central Southeast Southwest 5% 1 NEWMARK KNIGHT FRANK 2018 RESEARCH 2
SELECT LEASE TRANSACTIONS Tenant Building Submarket Type Square Feet Orbis Corporation 7190 Justin Way Northeast New 276,000 Cell-O-Core 5160 Greenwich Road Southwest New 75,000 Action Industries 13325 Darice Parkway Southwest New 73,000 Liberty Glove 26801 Fargo Avenue Southeast Renewal 68,506 Ta Chen 10160 Philipp Parkway Southeast New 57,440 SELECT SALES TRANSACTIONS Building Submarket Sale Price Price/SF Square Feet 14720 Foltz Industrial Parkway - Building I Southwest $14,650,000 $79.10 185,210 603 Alpha Drive Northeast $13,500,000 $71.43 189,000 4548 Industrial Parkway Downtown $610,000 $66.49 9,174 10160 Philipp Parkway Southeast $2,600,000 $45.26 57,440 5331 Commerce Parkway West Northeast $650,000 $38.69 16,800 SUBMARKET STATISTICS Inventory Under Construction Vacancy Rate Qtr Absorption YTD Absorption WH/Dist R&D/Flex Average Downtown 74,433,525 17,100 8.1% (224,473) (301,201) $2.49 $5.11 $3.16 Northeast 54,994,276 1,710,576 5. (38,923) (42,131) $3.83 $8.04 $4.44 Northwest 23,047,622 103,527 1.8% 32,810 24,474 $5.83 $8.08 $5.04 South Central 36,133,325 34,000 8.5% 239,941 300,783 $4.03 $7.22 $4.87 Southeast 67,263,327 1,298,250 4.8% (218,964) (230,184) $5.09 $6.70 $5.32 Southwest 28,661,635 391,296 3.9% (36,169) (110,184) $4.51 $7.98 $5.35 Market 284,533,710 3,554,749 5.9% (245,778) (358,443) $3.59 $7.22 $4.29 NEWMARK KNIGHT FRANK 2018 RESEARCH 3
ECONOMIC CONDITIONS The Greater Cleveland economy continued to add more jobs throughout the first half of 2018, as total payroll employment grew in May by 1.3% year-over-year. Overall payroll employment for the United States also grew in May, by 1. year-over-year. Most industry sectors saw growth from May 2017 to May 2018, including: mining, logging and construction (4.8% growth); manufacturing (4.1% growth); trade/transportation/utilities (2.8% growth); financial activities (0.5% growth); professional and business services (1. growth); education and health services (0. growth); and government (0.1% growth). nonfarm employment also saw an overall increase year-over-year of 1.3%. The information sector remained flat. Conversely, the other services industry contracted the most, by 1.. The only other industry to report a negative change over the past year was leisure and hospitality (negative 0.7%). UNEMPLOYMENT RATE EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor 9.9% 3.7% 19. 12.9% 3. 14. 11.5% 17.3% 1.3% 6.3% PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government Seasonally Adjusted 1 8% Nonfarm, Not Seasonally Adjusted, 12-Month % Change 3% 1% -1% - United States United States Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) All Items, 12-Month % Change, Not Seasonally Adjusted EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY INDUSTRY Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, May 2018, 12-Month % Change, Seasonally Adjusted - - United States Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor Nonfarm Mining/Logging/Construction Manufacturing Trade/Transportation/Utilities Information Financial Activities Prof & Bus Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government -5.0-3.0-1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 (*preliminary) NEWMARK KNIGHT FRANK 2018 RESEARCH 4
CLEVELAND INDUSTRIAL SUBMARKETS MATTHEW ORGOVAN Research and Marketing Manager 216.453.3027 morgovan@ngkf.com NATHANIEL HOOVER Research Coordinator 216.453.3052 Nathaniel.Hoover@ngkf.com Newmark Knight Frank has implemented a proprietary database and our tracking methodology has been revised. With this expansion and refinement in our data, there may be adjustments in historical statistics including availability, asking rents, absorption and effective rents. Newmark Knight Frank Research Reports are available at www.ngkf.com/research All information contained in this publication is derived from sources that are deemed to be reliable. However, Newmark Knight Frank (NKF) has not verified any such information, and the same constitutes the statements and representations only of the source thereof, and not of NKF. Any recipient of this publication should independently verify such information and all other information that may be material to any decision that recipient may make in response to this publication, and should consult with professionals of the recipient s choice with regard to all aspects of that decision, including its legal, financial, and tax aspects and implications. Any recipient of this publication may not, without the prior written approval of NGKF, distribute, disseminate, publish, transmit, copy, broadcast, upload, download, or in any other way reproduce this publication or any of the information it contains. NEWMARK KNIGHT FRANK 2018 RESEARCH 5