SAS027 Analysis of Smaller Scale Contingencies Examples of Measures of Merit and their use in Analysis of Small Scale Contingency Operations Presentation by Alan Shoolbread MOD UK - SAS 027 Panel PERCENTAGES QUOTED ARE PURELY REPRESENTATIVE FOR ILLUSTRATION ONLY Some of the Views Expressed may be those of the Presenter not the UK MoD or NATO
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Quote Although most people however reluctantly, take some interest in war, precious few bother their heads about organising for war in peacetime. It is a subject like dental care, both dull and mildly repellent Prof Sir Michael Howard: Every Club in the Bag. London Review of Books 10 Sept 1992, in Whitehall and the State
Key points Small Scale Contingencies Scenario Based Planning Examples of Measures Conclusions
War-fighting SAS027 Analysis of Smaller Scale Contingencies Long Term Defence Planning SSC s: NATO Operational Types and Broad Scales of Effort Scales of Effort Warfighting Peace Enforcement Peace Keeping Environments: Non Permissive / Permissive Humanitarian Operations in a PSO Environment Humanitarian Operations in non PSO Search and Rescue S S C s SPECTRUM OF OPERATIONS Any Timeframe
Small Scale Contingency Operations In SSCs the POLITICAL, ECONOMIC and SOCIAL mission components often have at least an equal weighting to the MILITARY MISSION. The Military mission in isolation will not necessarily deliver success as it does not have the full spectrum of capabilities
Readiness of Forces Elements and Capabilities TOTAL TRI-SERVICE FORCE POOL Readiness Very High Readiness High Readiness Units Non Military Organisations and Capabilities Units Low Readiness Force Split: Combat to Support Units Force Pool Units Cycle Through Readiness Levels
Total Tri-Service Force Pool Policy Development: Concurrency Example TOTAL DEPLOYABLE FORCE POOL Small Scale Enduring Rouled Medium Scale OOTW Permanently Committed Forces Non Deployable Duration / Time
Measures of Effectiveness High level aggregated measures of performance describing progress of a Small Scale Contingency Operation to meeting its goals In context of: Geopolitical Scenario Based Planning
Measures of Effectiveness The performance of the MoE may be assessed directly from the aggregation of lower level task metrics / pairs Measuring the Military mission alone will not provide sufficient data with which to assess overall SSC performance; the full Key MoE set must also cover the Diplomatic, Political and Economic Humanitarian Social missions But, metrics at lower levels within Key MoE may be compared across scenarios
SSC Campaign Outcome Measure of Overall Effectiveness Key Mission Components DIP POL ECON SOC MIL OTH Overcapacity, Success Failure and Affluence Thresholds Success Failure Affluence Thresholds Measured from Metrics Tasks Activities (Scenario Independent) A1 A2 Task A Metric 1 Task A Metric 2 B3 C3 Task B Metric 3 Task C Metric 4 Links not complete. A complex judgement task
Metrics METRIC: A low level measure of performance directly attributable to at least one task. Each task may have more than one metric and the combination of these metrics describes the overall performance of that task. A metric should be directly measurable, verifiable and based on physical changes in a system. Relate only to the progress of the task with which associated. War criminals arrested, no fly zones violations and vessels searched per day. Some metrics straightforward to measure.
Metrics Metrics Categories: Aspects of task or environment: Number of displaced civilians x thousand End State: Number of Displaced Civilians returned to homes: x thousand of total y thousand or x percent of total Trends or progress to Date: Rate of return of displaced civilians: x hundred per day Metric Subdivision Resource Environment Metrics End state Metrics Trend and Progress Metrics
Use of Measures within Scenarios and Operations Phases Different Measures for varying phases of the campaign Different targets for varying phases of the campaign Low Level v High Level Number of Patrols without incident V Regional Security Measure Instances V Abstract Quantity Refugees repatriated v Desired and state Tangible v Intangible Murder rate v Fear of Violent Crime Input v Output supply of engineering expertise v freedom of manoeuvre
Scenario: A war torn country called Alpha Land representative of Beta Land Mountain Land Alpha Land Delta Land
Alpha Land: Setting the Scene Warring Factions in Alpha Land Western People Mountain People Southern People All factions are armed with personal weapons, light patrol vehicles. Some old heavy armour and light air support but not very mobile. Supplies from abroad All desire independence and local rule, despising other factions.conflict ongoing for 6 months before Coalition Deployment Surrounded by Sea, Beta Land, Mountain Land and Delta Land Rugged interior terrain with seasonal variation
Secure Key Points Ports/Communications/Storage Sites/LoC s Major concentrations of Displaced People /Refugees Requirement for Humanitarian camps Western People Mountain People Enclaves Military Sectors for Coalition Partners Southern People
Beta Land Mountain Land Western People Mountain People Alpha Land Southern People Delta Land
1 2 3 Scenario Phases and Chronology Humanitarian Requirement Warring Faction Control Broad SSC PE/PK Operational Phases UN/ NATO Military Operational Control and Enforcement Scenario Crisis Development in Regional Area International Discussions UN Support and Coalition Building for Intervenction Pre Deployment Assessment Main Force Generation Main Military Deployment Force Operational Capability Force Roulemont (Handover) Total Force Withdrawal Civil / Aid Agencies Deployment (?) Unstable brokered ceasefire: time for coalition entry UN Mandate Sustainability of Force International Oversight Political Strategic Protection of Force and Civil Agencies Stabilisation and Return to Civil Power Duration Prolonged 18 Months+=Stressing Measure of Overall Effectiveness MoOE
International UN Mandate for Coalition Force: Phase 1: Phase 2: Phase 3: to deploy, secure the region and enforce cease-fire/ peace between conflicting factions (Military Capability) to provide and enable provision of humanitarian aid food/water/basic shelter/medical care to civilian population displaced and in-situ to disarm warring factions To provide or ensure policing function to ensure stable civil environment and freedom of movement for return of displaced persons/refugees ensure stable geopolitical environment to allow transition to democratic civil government
International Coalition Force: Phase 1: Force Package Phase 2: Heavy Military Coalition Force Packages at medium / large scale (Armour/Fast Jets) Force Package Phase 3: Reduced Military force packages at Medium Small Scale (Risk acceptance) Force Package Small Scale - move towards supporting paramilitary police and reduction to civil advisors
Beta Land Mountain Land Western People Mountain People Alpha Land Southern People Delta Land
SAS027 Analysis of Smaller Scale Contingencies Examples of Measures of Effectiveness in line with mandate The Methodology To Secure the Regional area To Ensure Humanitarian Assistance Capability Assessment
SSC Campaign Success Measures of Operational Effectiveness Diplomatic Mission Political Mission Economic Mission Humanitarian Mission Military Mission Other, Social KMC KMC KMC KMC KMC Affluence KMC Yes UnKnown No Target Level Achievement Yes,No or % Tasks / Metric Pairs Tasks Metrics Lower Level Activities Support multiple Tasks at Higher Levels At the Key Mission Component level satisfactory performance must be achieved in every component for mission success Performance scores inserted at any level
Key Mission Components Phases 1-3 Task: To Secure the Regional Area Diplomatic Political Econ Human Military Other Phases 1-3 >115% 110-115% 90-110% <90% >115% 110-115% 90-110% <90% A1:1 A1:2 %Losses %Losses A1:3 A1:4 Minimise Minimise 96-100% 91-95% <90% 100% 96-99% <95% >110% 106-110% 95-105% <95% A2:1 A2:2 A2:3 Task A1: Control Key Points (Air Ports/ Ports, Border Crossings, Key Sites within target time: Metric 1: Time to secure main points (hrs)/days against target time. (100%) Metric 2:Time to secure all points phase 1. Metric 3:Personnel and Platform Losses Metric 4:Minimisation of collateral damage non-combatant losses Task A2: Concentrate Forces in Area of Operations Metric 1: % of total force concentration requests met Metric 2: % of total reactions that were appropriate Metric 3: Time (from target time) to effective response for required operation
To Ensure Humanitarian Assistance:Refugees/DPs Key Mission Components Main links Diplomatic Political Econ Human Military Other... >100% 96-100% 90-95% <90% Target Geo cov by Phase 1 >100% 100% 95-99% <95% Target Geo cov by Phase 2 Yes A:M1 A:M1 A:M2 No Task A: Identify scale of Displaced Persons and Refugee Situation Metric 1: Search Geographic area to identify scale of problem by phase 1 and 2. Metric 2: Implement Recording and monitoring >100% 90-100% 50-89% <50% Target by Phase 1 >100% 90-100% 50-89% <50% Target by Phase 2 Task B: Ensure Provision of Shelter Metric 1: Relocate Refugees / DPs by end phase 1 to shelter / safety. Metric 2: Percentage of Refugees/ DPs provided with shelter by end phase 2. Yes No B:M1 B:M2 C:1 C:2 >100% 98-100% 91-97% <90% Target by Phase 3 Phase 3 Task C: Ensure Permanent Relocation BY PHASE 3: Metric 1 Closure of camps /safe areas Metric 2: Percentage of Refugees/ Displaced People permanently resettled by phase 3 handover.
Key Mission Components Task: To Ensure Humanitarian Assistance Diplomatic Political Econ Humanitarian Military Other >120% <=120% <=100% <90% >120% <=100% <95% <90% >120% <=100% <95% <90% Military enabler, civil supplier or Military primary supplier Task D: Ensure Provision of Food and Water. Metric1: Maintain Stock Level to 120% of requirement at dispersed distribution centres. Metric 2: Ensure delivery to distribution points. Metric 3: Number of Meals distributed to civil population as a proportion of minimum (estimated) daily requirement.
Mission Orientated Analysis -Adverse links Achieving the military/civil mission of providing secure supply of food could have longer term adverse consequences Military Mission / Humanitarian mission to ensure supply of food Undermines Economic Development Military Mission: Ensure Security of Food distribution Yes Humanitarian Mission: Ensure Supply of Food Yes Economic Mission: Ensure trade and food production No Economic Development may be delayed as individuals become reliant on Aid. Once scenario stabilised, transition from aid to supporting development of self sufficiency in food - support reintroduction of farming by phase 3 other agencies required to support
Task: To Ensure Humanitarian Assistance (Medical) Key Mission Components Diplomatic Political Econ Social Military Other Phases 1-3 >100% =100% 90-100% <90% Yes No Number of Persons Requiring Medical Aid / Infectious Disease Rate C1: 1 C1: 2 P1 P1 P2 P3 Phase/ Time Task C: Ensure Provision of Medical Care directly or through agencies: Metric 1: Percentage of Persons requiring medical assistance treated. (Targets in phases 1,2,3.) Metric 2: Eradication of infectious diseases by phase 3. (Improvement in living conditions) Military System or Military acting as an enabler to allow others to provide assistance
Key Mission Components SAS027 Analysis of Smaller Scale Contingencies Task: To Reduce Crime Rate Diplomatic Adverse Effect on Political and Economic MoE Number of Reported Crimes Phase/ Time Political >110% 106-110% 100-105% <100% Econ >110% 106-110% 100-105% <100% Social Military Number of Violent Deaths Other Phase/ Time Task B1: Enforce Curfew Metric1: Reduction in Crime to pre-conflict levels Task B2: To Reduce Crime Rate Metric2: Reduction in Violent Death Rate to target pre-conflict levels. (% of Target Level) Validation Problems: real data required
Route by which Key Mission Component leads to failure may be different from the way in which success measure aggregates up SAS027 Analysis of Smaller Scale Contingencies Mission Orientated Analysis -Adverse links (2) Failing to Achieve the military mission can undermine one or more of the non military components of an SSC Military Mission / Task to ensure a curfew to ensure security of civilian population Undermines other KMC freedom of movement Military Mission Enforce Curfew Yes Social Development Allow Free Association No
Assessment of Competing Capability or Force Elements Gather Data on Options Assess within a Scenario context the utility of the Capability or Force Element in conducting the required range of tasks and effects. Scenario creates Demand - Metrics measure performance within tasks Use Aggregated Measures of Performance if possible to Assess Utility of Force Element or Capability Assess across other Scenario types
Capability / Force Element Assessment Capability Solution 1 / Force Element 1 (Current Equipment) Capability Solution 2/ Force Element 2 New Highly Versatile Air Platform Capability Solution 3 / Force Element 3 New Highly Versatile Ground Platform Using Technical Specifications Doctrine and the Fixed Scenario Demand Requirement Assess Measures of Performance using metrics and Subsequently Effectiveness within the Scenario. Test each Capability / Element against the same range of activities, tasks, demands and threats over time. Cross Scenario Mission Type Assessment to ensure Utility across War and Non Warfighting Cost Effectiveness Investment Appraisal
Demand /Effort Level Activity Demand Level To Evaluate Force Component / Capabilities Scenario Demand Level (Stochastic) for tasks but within defined boundaries Deploy Aid Evac Sustain Aid Evac Sustain Measures of Performance for Helicopter: Range Assumptions Load for Climatic Conditions Sensor suite: Day/Night Equipment Availability Rates Platform numbers available/ required Patrol/ Search / Patrol / Search / Military Attack Disarm Missions Calculate Sortie Rate Required to achieve acceptable operational demand and success levels in all tasked missions use metrics Patrol / Search Recover Force Structure or Equipment Capability should be assessed to evaluate whether it can Supply appropriate Demand Level >120% >120% <=100% >100% <95% <=100% <95% <=100% <95% <90% <90% <90% Mixed Supp Ops Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Time /Phase
Assessment of Competing Capability or Force Element Cannot add up Measures of Performance in tasks within Key Mission Components to a single Measure of Effectiveness for a Scenario Can use Measures of Performance at a lower level within certain KMC and compare results across scenarios Judgement in interpretation
Conclusions: Measures of Effectiveness For Scenarios: Measures of effectiveness for Military and Humanitarian objectives well defined For Diplomatic, Political, Economic, linkages, causes and effects are less well defined. Further work is required before integrated additive model solutions are accepted Use metrics at appropriate level for comparison of utility of capability or force element
The End Discussion and Questions