Prof. Charles Scawthorn Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan Presentation at DRH-Asia Meeting, EDM NEID Kobe, 14 March 2007 3 Open Source software movement Natural hazards mitigation Earthquake Wind Flood Cost justification loss estimation 4 1
AGORA Greek: In this case, means a open place of congregation (marketplace) an international forum contributing to reducing natural hazards death and destruction through open risk modeling. 5 www.risk-agora.org 1 st International Workshop on Open-Source Risk Sofware California Institute of Technology 27-28 February 2007 California Institute of Technology Cambridge University (UK) Extreme Situations Research Center (Moscow) Imperial College (London) Kandili Observatory (Bogazici University, Istanbul) Kyoto University (Japan) Lloyd s of London Mid-America Earthquake Center MAE NEES - Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation Old Dominion University (USA) Russian Academy of Sciences Southern California Earthquake Center SPA Risk LLC University of California, Berkeley University of Pavia (Italy) US Geological Survey Virginia Tech (USA) 7 2
AGORA Workshop 1st International Workshop on Open-source Risk Software, Caltech, 2007 Jennings: Welcome Scawthorn: Why What How Field: OpenSHA Kishi: Insurance Industry Perspective Wald: PAGER McLaren: MAEVIZ Fenves: OpenSEES Erdik: NERIES Luco: ResRisk Porter: OpenRisk Larionov: Unified Methodology Comartin: World Housing Encyclopedia Durukal: SAFER Ono: Virtual Clearinghouse Krishnan: Collapse McLane: NEHRP Applications Frolova: Extremum Scawthorn: OSRE Pinho: Seismosoft Roblee: NEESInc Gupta: Licensing and Support Jones: SoCal Multihazards Project www.risk-agora.org 9 Risk-related Open Software HAZARD p(h E) VULNERABILITY p(d H) Risk Engine E p(d H) p(h E) 10 3
11 OpenRisk structure? 12 4
13 OSRE Open Source Risk Engine 14 5
Mitigation Information and Risk Identification System Global hazard database Exposure attributes Vulnerability Approximate B/C ratio Æ optimum design 15 Report and Website JAEE Investigation Committee website: 1,200 photographs of Pakistan earthquake soon: Sumatra, Niigata (>5,000 photos) future events anyone can add photos, data http://quake.kuciv.kyoto-u.ac.jp/vch/ 16 6
17 Key Workshop Points Loss estimation (risk software) is a key step in loss reduction Current software: slow adoption, low impact Open Source movement shows the way Current Open Riskware projects here and there AGORA: channel for communications, sharing, tech exchange synergy, mutual support (proposal letters of support ) OpenRisk development underway 18 7
AGORA Framework Whereas, Risk Analysis is the foundation of Risk Reduction, and Whereas, we all share Natural and Technological Hazards Risk, and Whereas, Risk Analysis is most broadly accepted and used when Risk Methodologies are Open Risk Tools are Open, and Fundamental Risk Data (such as Hazard and Vulnerability) are Open, Therefore, we support Open Risk Analysis Open Risk Methodologies Open Risk Tools, including Open-source Software Open Risk Data (such as Hazard and Vulnerability) Shared and Collaborative Development of Methods, Tools and Data, and Open Communication of Risk Results While respecting individual initiative and the individual s right to the fruits of that initiative 19 Steering Steering Committee Committee Steering Committee AGORA Website Software Participating organizations Committees License Security QA QA Membership: 1: 1: executable for for anyone 2: 2: source source code code quid quid pro pro quo quo (by (by participation, or or for for a fee) fee) 20 8
AGORA Activities Google Summer of Code 2007 Ideas for OpenRisk/ResRisk: open-source software to estimate the uncertain future disaster performance of houses or groups of buildings at selected locations, using state-of-the-art hazard and vulnerability models. Ideas for OpenRisk/IndustryRisk: open-source software for visual inspection and fragility modeling of facilities that rely on complex equipment systems. Development of Lifeline Reliability: open-source software for probabilistic GISbased analysis of lifeline networks Other Submissions: Kyoto University, U. Pavia, Bogazici University 22 AGORA Activities - 2 Planned Meeting or Sessions July Session on Open Risk Analysis, Boulder Natural Hazards Workshop (USA) September Session on Open Risk Analysis, IIASA-DPRI Meeting (Italy) December Conference on Asian Catastrophe Insurance (Japan) 23 9
Thank You www.risk-agora.org 25 10