ICTs and Developmental Change in Africa

ICTs and Developmental Change in Africa African Societies in Development: Critical Challenges and Successes Michael L. Best Georgia Institute of Technology mikeb@cc.gatech.edu www.cc.gatech.edu/~mikeb

ICT4D - Africa "While And we ICT are cannot seeing address ICT impacts all of [Africa's] in reduced problems, prices for they inputs, can do improved much to prices place for Africa farm on outputs, a firmer the industrial growth of footing... non-farm and incomes, strengthen the the expansion continent's of human small and medium resources, enterprises, with training that enhanced leads to sustainable educational opportunity, livelihoods." and Kofiimproved Annan delivery of health and public services

ICT4D Africa - Innovation Technological and engineering challenges Supportive public policies and regulatory environments Smart businesses, especially SMEs Collaborative and socially aware interventions Rigorous monitoring, evaluation, assessment

The State of ICTs in Africa Internet Users

The State of ICTs in Africa Mobile Phone Subscribers

And Mobile Phone Use is Growing!!!!! Mobile cellular subscribers Annual Average Growth 1998-2003 65 33 35 38 24 24 Oceania Americas World Europe Asia Africa

And Mobile Phone Use is Growing!!!!! Mobile passed fixed in 2001 Subscribers per 100 inhabitants 7 6.2 6 43 African countries (78%) have more mobile than fixed telephone subscribers Almost 70% of African telephone subscribers use mobile 5 4 3 2 1 0 Mobile 3.0 Fixed 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

ICT4D Africa and Tech! We have projects across Africa Liberia, Rwanda, Nigeria, Ghana, and more

Physical Infrastructure and Coffee Cooperatives (Kelly Caine, Walter Hargrove, Mike Sun) Three Georgia Tech students spent last break in Rwanda conducting field research. Preliminary results through network modeling and design on how to connect rural coffee co-ops. Working with USAID, PERL, Terracom, MTN, and other local stakeholders.

Physical Infrastructure and Coffee Cooperatives Net Present Value Technology Minimal Coop Rich Coop Telecenter Coop Sub-POP Coop Canopy 2.4 GHz VSAT GSM/GPRS CDMA2000 EVDO CDMA2000 1x -$8,072 -$12,105 -$15,814 -$39,377 - -$29,400 - - -$2,352 - - -$8,309 -$10,999 -$16,729 -$30,024 -$4,814 -$8,847 -$17,804 -$28,952

Physical Infrastructure and Coffee Cooperatives 100% 90% Largest expense bandwidth. 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% CAPEX OPEX Other OPEX (Bandw idth) 30% 20% 10% 0% Minimal Rich Telecenter Sub-POP

Human Capacity and Grassroots Opportunities at the Co-ops Preliminary results, through stakeholder consultations on why to connect rural coffee coops.

Human Capacity and Grassroots Opportunities at the Co-ops 7.00 6.00 5.00 Mean Rank 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 Mean rank of communication method in terms of desired future use 0.00 Cell Laptop Computer Desktop Computer Phone Fax Face to Face Communication Method Letter Mean Rank 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 Mean rank of communication method in terms of usefulness in business 1.00 0.00 Cell Desktop Computer Face to Face Phone Letter Laptop Computer Fax Communication Method

New Methods to Visualize Communication Needs Present communication network.

New Methods to Visualize Communication Needs Desired communication network. High frequency domestic interaction and high cost international contact could benefit from the application of information and communication technologies (ICTs).

Georgia Tech s ICT Work in Rwanda Some preliminary successes in developing understanding of physical networking requirements, usability, user acceptance, and value chain re-engineering. Highly motivated Tech students. Close interactions with PERL staff. On-going work in many of these areas.

E-Liberia Studying the ICT landscape within postconflict Liberia. We are also analyzing the process towards developing a national ICT policy for Liberia. Emerging project to develop Liberian CTLC s with law-and-order and reconciliation components. (Kipp Jones, Illenin O. Kondo, Dhanaraj Thakur, Edem Wornyo, Calvin Yu )

E-Liberia Metric Value Remarks Population ~3.3 Million, based on latest estimates Population density 30 Per km 2, 2006 GDP 2.643 US $ billions, 2005 GDP per capita 800 US $, 2005 Fixedline Telephones 0 No fixed line phone system is operational in Liberia Cellular subscribers 400-450 Thousands, 2006 Cellular density 12-14 Per 100 inhabitants, 2006 Literacy rate 57.5 Per 100 inhabitants older than 15 years, 2003 Infant mortality 156 Per 1000 live births, 2006

E-Liberia - Mosaic We see very weak internet use but robust mobile phone penetration.

ICT4R Researching the role of ICT's in post-conflict reconciliation and reconstruction. We are currently exploring activities in Rwanda working with their genocide memorial project. We may expand to places such as Mozambique, Liberia, and Afghanistan. (Sy Goodman, Bill Long, Juan Andres Muñoz)

Spectrum Exemptions WiFi hotspots, and other terrestrial wireless technologies, broadcast on 2.4 and 5 GHz under spectrum license exemptions in many countries.

2005 Survey of 75 Countries: 2/3rds require some licensing for 2.4 and 5 35 30 25 20 Total 15 2% 10 5 0 Private 2.4 GHz Public 2.4 GHz Private 5 GHz Public 5 GHz 34% 37% Unlicensed Registration Licensed Forbidden Unlicensed 29 16 27 13 27% Registration 16 20 11 14 Licensed 16 23 17 22 Forbidden 1 4 Public and 5 GHz more regulated than Private and 2.4 GHz.

2.4 GHz Variation by Region and Economic Level of Development 100% 90% 80% 70% 100% 60% 50% Licensed Registration 80% 40% 30% 20% 10% Unlicensed 60% 40% Licensed Registration Unlicensed 0% Lower Lower Middle Upper Middle Upper 20% (χ 2 = 12.6, p<0.05) 0% Africa Americas Asia Pacific Arab Region Europe (χ 2 = 20.78, p < 0.0078 )

Regulations and Internet Penetration Multivariate Analysis Term Expanded Beta Standardized Beta t p Intercept 34.03 0.00 1.58 0.12 Forbidden -3.67-0.10-0.49 0.63 Licensed -4.17-0.18-1.27 0.21 Registration -2.10-0.10-0.59 0.56 Unlicensed 9.94 2.50 0.02 Log(Population) -6.28-0.57-4.07 <.0001 Log (GDP) 3.46 0.51 4.27 <.0001 Africa -8.52-0.31-1.74 0.09 Americas 1.42 0.05 0.30 0.76 Asia/Pacific 5.80 0.25 1.29 0.20 Arab Region -2.69-0.10-0.65 0.52 Europe 3.99 1.26 0.21 WHOLE MODEL Observations 67 R 2 0.55 Adjusted R 2 0.48 F-Statistic 7.89 p <.0001 Internet users per 100 Actual 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Internet users per 100 Predicted P<.0001 RSq=0.55 RMSE=12.449

Regulations and Internet Penetration Multivariate Analysis Term Expanded Beta Standardized Beta t p Intercept 34.03 0.00 1.58 0.12 Countries that allow unlicensed use of 2.4 or 5 GHz bands have higher levels of Internet use even when we control for a country s size, region, and level of economic development. Forbidden -3.67-0.10-0.49 0.63 Licensed -4.17-0.18-1.27 0.21 Registration -2.10-0.10-0.59 0.56 Unlicensed 9.94 2.50 0.02 Log(Population) -6.28-0.57-4.07 <.0001 Log (GDP) 3.46 0.51 4.27 <.0001 Africa -8.52-0.31-1.74 0.09 Americas 1.42 0.05 0.30 0.76 Asia/Pacific 5.80 0.25 1.29 0.20 Arab Region -2.69-0.10-0.65 0.52 Europe 3.99 1.26 0.21 WHOLE MODEL Observations 67 R 2 0.55 Adjusted R 2 0.48 Internet users per 100 Actual 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 F-Statistic 7.89 p <.0001 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Internet users per 100 Predicted P<.0001 RSq=0.55 RMSE=12.449

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