Greece Short Presentation March 2017
Contents Executive Summary 3 Macroeconomic Environment 5 Passenger Car Market 9 2017 Deloitte Business Solutions S.A. Passenger Car Market - Greece 2
Executive Summary 2017 Deloitte Business Solutions S.A. Passenger Car Market - Greece 3
The automotive sector is currently under the process of consolidation and debt restructuring. Exclusive importers and dealers are facing significant financing constraints and are seeking other ways to develop their business like spare parts trading which shows significant higher margins than auto imports and car dealing. The passenger car market was in a bubble state during the period 2004 2008 when registrations reached in average to 275k per year. In 2016, registrations had decreased by 73% from 2004 (significantly more than other countries in Europe).This indicates that potential upside can be higher than the macroeconomics improvement. However, a return to the previous bubble market should be considered as unlikely. Deloitte s view is that the market could reach to c. 120k registrations in 2021 (an increase of 52% when compared to 2016 registrations). Overall, the market remains underdeveloped and the car ownership levels are lower than in most of the EU countries, while constant taxation changes create an unstable market environment. In spite of the above, the car remains on top of customer s priorities and this is a key factor driving the market upwards. 2017 Deloitte Business Solutions S.A. Passenger Car Market - Greece 4
Macroeconomic Environment 2017 Deloitte Business Solutions S.A. Passenger Car Market - Greece 5
Macroeconomic Environment Key Indicators GDP real change (% p.a. ) 4.0% 2.0% - 0.4% (0.3%) 0.4% 1.2% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 2.0% (0.2%) (2.0%) (4.0%) (3.2%) (6.0%) (4.3%) (5.5%) (8.0%) (7.3%) (9.2%) (10.0%) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source: Economist Intelligence Unit Unemployment rate (%) 30.0% 27.5% 26.6% 25.0% 25.0% 24.6% 23.4% 22.7% 21.8% 21.0% 20.0% 15.0% 12.7% 17.9% 19.9% 18.9% 10.0% 5.0% 7.8% 9.6% 0.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source: Economist Intelligence Unit 2017 Deloitte Business Solutions S.A. Passenger Car Market - Greece 6
Macroeconomic Environment Key Indicators Personal Disposable Income (% change p.a.) 20.0% 15.0% 14.1% 10.0% 5.0% 1.1% 1.9% 2.2% 3.5% 7.3% 5.1% 5.4% - (5.0%) (10.0%) (15.0%) (4.6%) (2.0%) (10.1%) (1.2%) (14.0%) (1.2%) (20.0%) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source: Economist Intelligence Unit Private Consumption (% change p.a.) 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.4% 0.6% 0.5% 1.0% 1.4% 1.5% 1.6% 1.8% - (2.0%) (4.0%) (1.6%) (2.7%) (0.3%) (6.0%) (6.4%) (8.0%) (7.9%) (10.0%) (9.9%) (12.0%) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source: Economist Intelligence Unit 2017 Deloitte Business Solutions S.A. Passenger Car Market - Greece 7
Macroeconomic Environment Key Indicators Ranking based on passenger cars per 1,000 people - 2016 Rank Country Passenger cars (stock per 1,000 people) Personal disposable income (per person, $) 1 Italy 606 19,210 2 Finland 587 23,640 3 Germany 556 24,220 4 Austria 549 25,390 5 Sw itzerland 541 48,530 6 United Kingdom 532 26,680 7 Norw ay 531 34,160 8 Poland 526 7,020 9 Sw eden 490 25,180 10 Belgium 489 22,140 11 France 485 24,290 12 Netherlands 483 20,350 13 Czech Republic 479 9,270 14 Spain 476 16,060 15 Greece 471 16,490 16 Bulgaria 447 4,640 17 Denmark 442 24,780 18 Ireland 442 22,350 19 Portugal 437 13,350 20 Slovakia 353 9,390 21 Hungary 307 6,570 22 Russia 280 4,620 23 Romania 260 7,370 24 Kazakhstan 249 3,890 25 Ukraine 179 1,440 26 Azerbaijan 151 2,350 27 Turkey 137 6,530 Source: EIU Drop from peak - PC registrations Rank Country Peak year Peak registrations (000s) 2016 Registrations (000s) % change 1 Greece 2004 290 79 (73%) 2 Hungary 2004 207 97 (53%) 3 Netherlands 2011 556 385 (31%) 4 Spain 2005 1,649 1,147 (30%) 5 Italy 2007 2,493 1,817 (27%) 6 Ireland 2007 186 147 (21%) 7 Finland 2005 148 119 (20%) 8 France 2009 2,302 2,015 (12%) 9 Germany 2009 3,807 3,352 (12%) 10 Austria 2011 356 330 (7%) 11 Portugal 2010 223 207 (7%) 12 Belgium 2011 572 540 (6%) 13 Sw itzerland 2012 326 317 (3%) 14 Czech Republic 2016 260 260-15 Denmark 2016 223 223-16 Poland 2016 416 416-17 Sw eden 2016 372 372-18 United Kingdom 2016 2,693 2,693-19 Norw ay 2016 155 155 - Note: data ranges f rom 2004 to 2016 Source: EIU 2017 Deloitte Business Solutions S.A. Passenger Car Market - Greece 8
2017 Deloitte Business Solutions S.A. Passenger Car Market - Greece 9
Key Market Participants Company Brands # of Registrations (2016) Market Share (2016) # of Registrations (2015) Market Share (2015) Revenues (2015) (in 000) FIAT GROUP AUTOMOBILES HELLAS FIAT ALFA ROMEO 4,886 517 6.2% 0.7% 3,654 477 4.8% 0.6% 57,598 AIGLON ΤΕΟRΕΝ ΜΟΤΟRS S.A. CITROEN PEUGEOT RENAULT DACIA 3,781 5,582 3,021 621 4.8% 7.1% 3.8% 0.8% 3,866 4,855 2,790 318 5.1% 6.4% 3.7% 0.4% 84,013* 46,210 FORD MOTOR HELLAS FORD 3,736 4.7% 3,553 4.7% 52,483* HYUNDAI HELLAS DAVARIS HYUNDAI 1,088 1.4% 3,069 4.0% 32,273 AUTODEAL DAVARIS KIA MOTORS 816 1.0% 1,402 1.8% 17,235 LANCIA JEEP HELLAS S.A. JEEP 900 1.1% 627 0.8% 33,150* THEOCHARAKIS NISSAN 7,289 9.2% 6,510 8.6% 98,470* GENERAL MOTORS HELLAS S.A. OPEL 7,054 8.9% 6,036 8.0% 83,584 TECHNOCAR SEAT 1,780 2.3% 1,623 2.1% 25,824* VIAMAR** SKODA 1,428 1.8% 2,238 3.0% 52,905* TOYOTA HELLAS TOYOTA 9,496 12.0% 8,866 11.7% 148,694 KOSMOCAR S.A. AUDI VW 2,618 6,430 3.3% 8.2% 2,668 6,780 3.5% 8.9% 172,156 BMW HELLAS S.A. BMW MINI 3,843 1,584 4.9% 2.0% 2,999 1,294 4.0% 1.7% 110,415* MERCEDES BENZ HELLAS MERCEDES SMART 4,432 815 5.6% 1.0% 3,584 739 4.7% 1.0% 135,934 SUZUKI - SFAKIANAKIS SUZUKI 4,137 5.2% 4,044 5.3% 207,623 Sum 75,854 96.2% 71,992 95.0% n/a Source: AMVIR and ICAP Note: * FY14 Revenues, ** Kosmocar S.A. is the exclusive importer for Skoda since June 2016 2017 Deloitte Business Solutions S.A. Passenger Car Market - Greece 10
2016 Top 10 Registrations (1 out of 2) Total registrations reached to 79k. The Top 10 models registered in 2016 accounted for 35.6% of total registrations. 1 2 3 TOYOTA YARIS (5.3k) OPEL CORSA (3.8k) NISSAN MICRA (2.9k) 4 5 Source: AMVIR FIAT PANDA (2.7k) VW POLO (2.4k) 2017 Deloitte Business Solutions S.A. Passenger Car Market - Greece 11
2016 Top 10 Registrations (2 out of 2) 6 7 8 PEUGEOT 208 (2.4k) NISSAN QASHQAI (2.4k) RENAULT CLIO (2.2k) 9 10 Source: AMVIR OPEL ASTRA (2.2k) TOYOTA AURIS (1.7k) 2017 Deloitte Business Solutions S.A. Passenger Car Market - Greece 12
Registrations: Historical Data Private Car registrations have decreased by 73% from 289.7k registrations in 2004 to 78.9k registrations in 2016. Source: AMVIR 2017 Deloitte Business Solutions S.A. Passenger Car Market - Greece 13
Registrations: Historical Data The chart below reflects the seasonality of registrations during the period 2004-2016. Peaks are observed in January and June while troughs occurred in December and September. Source: AMVIR 2017 Deloitte Business Solutions S.A. Passenger Car Market - Greece 14
Registrations: Historical Data The chart presents the Top 10 brands in terms of registrations for the period 2004 2009. Toyota is number one in 5 out of 6 years. Source: AMVIR 2017 Deloitte Business Solutions S.A. Passenger Car Market - Greece 15
Registrations: Historical Data The chart presents the Top 10 brands in terms of registrations for the period 2010 2016. Toyota is number one in 6 out of 7 years. Source: AMVIR 2017 Deloitte Business Solutions S.A. Passenger Car Market - Greece 16
Registrations: Historical Data Top 5 Brands (2004 2016)* Source: AMVIR Note *: Top 5 based on 2016 ranking 2017 Deloitte Business Solutions S.A. Passenger Car Market - Greece 17
Market Projections (2017 2021) Market Projections (2017-2021) 120 120 '000 registrations 110 100 90 80 90 82 96 85 83 102 90 88 107 105 92 111 70 77 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Deloitte's view ACEA EIU ACEA: European Automobile Manufacturers' Association EIU: Economist Intelligence Unit 2017 Deloitte Business Solutions S.A. Passenger Car Market - Greece 18
Contacts Automotive Sector Stathis Andrianakis Partner FAS Greece Office tel: +30 210 6781 110 Email: sandrianakis@deloitte.gr Sergios Takos Manager FAS Greece Office tel: +30 210 6781 330 Email: stakos@deloitte.gr 2017 Deloitte Business Solutions S.A. Passenger Car Market - Greece 19
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