CHINA S FUTURE NUCLEAR FORCE INFRASTRUCTURE NOTIONAL BREAKOUT SCENARIO Mark A. Stokes East Asian Alternative Nuclear Weapons Futures Workshop Stanford University November 20-21, 2013
Overview Scenario Assumptions Baseline Force Structure Strategic Drivers and Operational Requirements Acquisition Management Warhead Engineering R&D and Production Infrastructure Notional Operational Infrastructure in Breakout Scenario Conclusions www.project2049.net
Scenario Assumptions Current inventory of 250 nuclear warheads CMC entrusts Second Artillery Force as sole PLA warhead custodian Centralized storage and handling under Second Artillery central warhead storage and handling complex in central China (Base 22) Domestic political considerations are primary factors determining size of arsenal security more important than operational effectiveness Concealment of actual warhead inventory size allows for minimal number Small number of warheads available under each of six corps-level missile base At least one warhead is programmed, produced, and supplied for each nuclear-capable missile Breakout scenario of 1500 warheads by 2025 Parallel surge in production of missile systems and other delivery vehicles Expansion of CAEP industrial capacity No fissile material constraints Adjustments within a static PLA organizational structure
Pathway toward a PLA Nuclear Expansion Policy Approval/Validation CMC/Politburo Acquisition Management GAD and Second Artillery Equipment Department Force Planning and Operational/Technical Requirements Development Second Artillery Headquarters Department Second Artillery Equipment Department Engineering R&D and Manufacturing CASC/CASIC CAEP Operational Infrastructure Second Artillery Headquarters Department Warhead/Missile Base
Commander Wei Fenghe Second Artillery General Headquarters Organizational Structure Political Commissar Zhang Haiyang Direct Reporting Regiments Geodesy Strategic Communications Logistics Depot Missile Component Readiness Solid Motor Readiness Electronic Warfare Special Vehicle Training Intelligence Engineering Divisions 308 Engineering Command Engineering Technology Group Headquarters Department Chief of Staff Deputy Chiefs of Staff Operations Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance Communications Engineering Political Department Propaganda Organization and Discipline Cadre Logistics Department Transportation Supplies and Fuel Infrastructure/Barracks Budget Equipment Department S&T Research Special Equipment Management Procurement Equipment Research Academy At least five subordinate research institutes
Second Artillery General Headquarters Organizational Structure SECOND ARTILLERY COMMAND Headquarters Department Political Department Logistics Department Equipment Department Headquarters Department Headquarters Department Headquarters Department Headquarters Department Political Department Political Department Political Department Political Department Operations Department Intelligence Department Propaganda Department Organization Department Transportation Department Materials Department General Planning Department S&T Research Department Military Affairs Department Training Department Engineering Department Discipline and Inspection Department Cadre Department Supplies and Fuel Infrastructure Department Infrastructure and Barracks Department Health Department Special Equipment Management Department Procurement Department Communications Department
Baseline Nuclear Force Structure
SECOND ARTILLERY BASE-LEVEL ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE Commander Three Deputy Commanders Political Commissar Three Deputy Political Commissars Base-Level Support Units Training Regiment Transportation Regiment Warhead Regiment Ground Equipment Repair Regiment Communications Regiment Missile Depot Regiment (selected) Launch Brigades Six launch battalions, two companies each Communications Battalion Technical Battalion Site Management Battalion Base Headquarters Staff Headquarters Department Political Department Logistics Department Equipment Department Taibai Central Warhead Storage Complex* (22 Base) Warhead Inspection Brigade Munitions Inspection Regiment Warhead Storage Regiment Transportation Regiment Training Regiment Repair Regiment Communications Regiment * Possible function as alternate national command center
Central Nuclear Warhead Storage and Handling Complex Base 22 Baoji (96401 Unit) Equipment Inspection Institute (96411 Unit) Unknown Institute (96412 Unit) Technical Service Regiment (96421 Unit) Transportation Regiment (96422 Unit) Training Regiment (96423 Unit) Vehicle Maintenance Regiment (96424 Unit) Communications Regiment (96425 Unit) Contingency Response Regiment (96425 Unit)
Baseline Nuclear Force Structure Base 51 806 Brigade (Hancheng; prob DF-31) 810 Brigade (Jinzhou; poss mixed) 816 Brigade (Tonghua; prob DF-21) 822 Brigade (Laiwu; DF-21C) Base 52 807 Brigade (Chizhou; prob DF-21) 811 Brigade (Qimen; prob DF-21) Base 53 802 Brigade (Jianshui; prob DF-21) 808 Brigade (Yuxi; poss DF-31) 8XX Brigade (Qingyuan; poss DF-21) Base 55 803 Brigade (Jingzhou; prob DF-5) 805 Brigade (Shaoyang; prob DF-31) 814 Brigade (Huitong; prob DF-4) North Sea Fleet First Submarine Base Two Type 094 (12 tubes each) Base 22 Central Warhead Depot Complex?? Base 54 801 Brigade (Lingbao; prob DF-5B) 804 Brigade (Luanchuan; prob mixed) 813 Brigade (Nanyang; prob DF-31) 8XX Brigade (Xinyang; OT&E unit for new system Base 56 809 Brigade (Datong; poss DF-31) 812 Brigade (Tianshui; DF-31A) 823 Brigade (Kurle; prob DF-21) South Sea Fleet Second Submarine Base Two Type 094 (12 tubes each)
SECOND ARTILLERY INFRASTRUCTURE www.project2049.net
Missile Base Organization and Baseline Force Structure 52 Base 96151 Unit Huangshan, Anhui Province Headquarters Department Political Department Logistics Department Equipment Department 96171 Unit Training Quzhou, Zhejiang 96172 Unit Transportation Xiuning County 96173 Unit Warhead Jingdezhen 96174 Unit Repair Factory Xiuning County 96175 Unit Communications Huangshan 96176 Unit Missile Component Depot Shangrao 807 Brigade 96161 Unit Chizhou City DF-21 811 Brigade 96163 Yong an Unit Qimen City DF-21 815 Brigade 96165 Unit Shangrao DF-15B 817 Brigade 96167 Unit Yong an DF-11A 818 Brigade 96169 Unit Meizhou DF-11 819 Brigade 96162 Unit Ganzhou DF-15 820 Brigade 96164 Unit Jinhua DF-15 827 Brigade 96166 Unit Shaoguan Poss DF-16 8XX Brigade 96170 Unit Putian Poss DF-11A Nuclear Six launch battalions per brigade Two launch companies per battalion (12 companies per brigade) One launcher assigned to each launch company At least one missile/nuclear warhead programmed and available for each launcher At least 12 missiles and 12 nuclear warheads notionally programmed and available for each nuclear-capable brigade Conventional Six launch battalions under brigade Two launch companies per battalion (12 companies per brigade) Three launchers per launch company At least one missile/conventional warhead programmed and available for each launcher At least 36 missiles/conventional warheads notionally available per brigade Reporting of 1000+ conventional SRBMs available for six brigades
Strategic Drivers and Operational Requirements Why Would the Politburo/CMC Want an Expanded Nuclear Force? Political Rush to Parity? Bureaucratic politics/military parochialism? Defense industry push? Threat perception, calculated deterrence/counter-coercion, and/or or doctrinal shift? Technology push?
Acquisition Management Who Would Be Responsible for Planning, Programming, and Equipping an Expanded Force Structure? Second Artillery Equipment Department manages missile system acquisition programs based on broad CMC and General Armaments Department (GAD) policy guidance Five-seven research institutes under Second Artillery Equipment Research Academy responsible for conceptual design, program validation, proof of concept, etc Second Research Institute appears to be responsible for warhead-related electronic components and safety issues New strategic planning office Defense industry military representative system Role of operational test and evaluation (OT&E) units CASC First Academy Design Department Large solid motors: Nuclear Warhead: Re-entry vehicle structures: Guidance, nav, control system: Final Assembly: Defense Industrial Engineering R&D System CASC Fourth Academy CAEP CASC First Academy14th RI CASC First Academy 12 th RI CASC First Academy 211 Factory CASIC Fourth Academy Design Department Medium-diameter solid motors: Nuclear Warhead: Re-entry vehicle structures: Guidance, nav, control system: Final Assembly: CASIC Sixth Academy or 066 Base CAEP CASC First Academy14th RI CASIC Fourth Academy 17 th RI CASIC Fourth Academy 307 Factory
Acquisition Management Who Would Be Responsible for Planning, Programming, and Equipping an Expanded Force Structure? GAD oversees technology development and manages acquisition of nuclear warheads as a major missile sub-system GAD S&T Committee as senior CMC advisory group on defense technology S&T Committee director carries grade equal to a military region leader GAD S&T Committee Expert Working Groups: Nuclear weapons technology Testing technology Nuclear safety 863 Program Expert Working Groups 863-804: Inertial Confinement Fusion GAD Services Department Second Artillery Bureau (Nuclear Technology Bureau) GAD 21 Base (63650 Unit; Malan Special Weapons Test Base) Northwest Institute of Nuclear Technology
China s Space And Missile Industrial Structure Academies Roughly analogous to a US corporate business division Design departments Systems integration responsibilities Research institutes Sub-systems, sub-assemblies, components, and materials Factories Manufacturing and assembly
NOTIONAL MRBM ACQUISITION AND DESIGN SYSTEM CMC Central Special Committee Design Finalization Committee State Council GENERAL ARMAMENTS DEPARTMENT 863 Program Expert Working Groups 863-7 and 863-8 领域 S&T Committee Expert Working Groups Key National/Defense Labs SASTIND/SASAC China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation Second Artillery Equipment Department CASIC Fourth Academy General Staff Department Strategic Planning Department Second Artillery Headquarters Department Equipment Research Academy Costing Center 1 st Research Institute 2 nd Research Institute 3 rd Research Institute 4 th Research Institute Industrial Representative Bureau Preliminary Research Feasibility Studies PA&E Concept Validation Tactical and Technical Outline [ 战术技术指标 ] Full Life Cycle Support Plan R&D Conceptual Design Program Management Office Design Finalization Operational Test and Evaluation Unit 96219 Unit (Qingyuan, Guangdong Province) Seed Unit formed with initiation of R&D Engineering Phase Linkage between warfighters, acquisition, and industry First unit equipped (eg., 96219 Unit, Qingyuan) Program Manager Structure Propulsion Post Boost Vehicle/ Warhead Guidance/Control Launcher Manufacturing Testing Chief Designer 4 th Design Dept CASIC Sixth Academy or Ninth Academy Solid Motor CASC First Academy 14 th RI CAEP CASIC Fourth Academy 17 th RI or CASC First Academy 12 th RI CASC First Academy 15 th RI 307 Factory 4 th Design Dept R&D and Operational Testing 25 Base (Taiyuan) Preliminary Research R&D Program Validation System R&D Design Finalization
Warhead Engineering R&D and Production Infrastructure CMC State Council CHINA ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING PHYSICS Party Committee General Office Integrated Planning Department S&T Department Personnel Training Department People s Armed Department Propaganda Department Technical Supervision Department Party Committee S&T Committee Engineering Department Beijing Graduate Student Department Material Department Defense Conversion Department Public Affairs Management Department S&T Information Center Institute of Fluid Physics First Institute Institute of Nuclear Physics and Chemistry Second Institute Institute of Chemical Materials Third Institute Institute of Integrated Engineering Fourth Institute Institute of Electronic Engineering Fifth Institute Institute of Machining Technology Sixth Institute Sichuan Institute of Materials Processing Seventh Institute Laser Fusion Research Center Eighth Institute Institute of Applied Physics and Computational Mathematics Ninth Institute Institute of Applied Electronics 10th Institute Shanghai Institute of Laser Plasma 11 th Institute CAEP Computing Center Southwest Computing Center 12 th Institute Military Representative Offices
Notional Operational Infrastructure in Breakout Scenario Expansion of operational infrastructure Current conventional force structure as model: three launchers per company Limited number of new brigades equipped with mobile MIRV d ICBM Expansion and delegation of warhead storage and handling responsibilities to base level Base 22 as reserve depot Expansion of missile (CASC/CASIC) and warhead (CAEP) final assembly plants (and supply chain) CASC 211 Factory/CASIC 307 Factory CAEP Sichuan Institute of Materials Processing (Seventh Institute/903 Factory) Larger arsenal = greater transparency?
Conclusions/Other Considerations Extended range dual capable ballistic and land attack cruise missiles Expanded range variants of DF-21C and/or new model Navy and Air Force Nuclear Capabilities Air- and possible sub-launched launched land attack cruise missiles Type 094 sub and JL-2 SLBM: who controls the warheads? Future PLA Strategic Command? Increasingly complex missile defense countermeasures On-board jammers Hypersonic cruise vehicles Reduced radar cross section Maneuvering re-entry vehicles Greater lethality Fourth generation nuclear weapons Tailored warheads for hard and/or deeply buried targets High powered microwave or other radiofrequency warhead Multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs) Probable MIRV variant of silo-based DF-5 (DF-5B) Possible new solid fueled, road mobile intercontinental ballistic missile