ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey United States 2 18
United States Employment Outlook More than 11,500 interviews were conducted with employers within the United States, including all 50 states, the top 100 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico, to measure hiring intentions between April and June 18. The mix of industries within the survey follows the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) supersectors and is structured to be representative of the U.S. economy. All participants were asked, How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of June 18 compared to the current quarter? Contents United States Employment Outlook 1 Industry Sector Comparisons Regional Comparisons Metropolitan Statistical Areas Global Employment Outlook 8 About the Survey 9
United States Employment Outlook Quarter 2 18 Quarter 1 18 Quarter 4 17 Quarter 3 17 Quarter 2 17 Increase Decrease No Change Don t Know Outlook Seasonally Adjusted % % % % % % 23 3 73 1 18 21 5 71 3 16 19 21 6 71 2 24 4 70 2 22 3 73 2 19 17 17 17 35 30 25 10 5 0-5 Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 No bar indicates Outlook of zero More than one in five (23 percent) of U.S. employers expect to increase payrolls during the second quarter of 18, while 3 percent anticipate a decline in staffing levels. In addition, 73 percent expect no change in their workforce. Once the data is adjusted to allow for seasonal variation, the nationwide Outlook stands at +18%. U.S. employers report a decline of 1 percentage point when compared with the first quarter of 18, and an increase of 1 percentage point in comparison with this time one year ago. Employers in all four U.S. regions the Midwest, the Northeast, the South and the West report no change in hiring prospects when compared with the previous quarter. Midwest employers continue to expect the strongest labor market since 01, reporting an Outlook of +% for the second consecutive quarter. Employers in the West continue to anticipate an upbeat hiring pace, with an Outlook of +19%, while Outlooks stand at +18% in the South and +17% in the Northeast. Compared with the first quarter of 18 hiring plans are unchanged in all four U.S. regions. When compared with this time one year ago, hiring prospects are slightly stronger in the Midwest and the Northeast. Employers in the South and the West report relatively stable hiring intentions when compared with the second quarter of 17. From this point forward, all data discussed in the commentary is seasonally adjusted, unless stated otherwise. Please note that throughout this report, the figure used in all graphs is the Outlook. This figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage of employers that expect to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter. In addition, percentage totals may not equal 100% due to rounding. ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey 1
Industry Sector Comparisons Employers in all 13 industry sectors anticipate an increase in staffing levels for the April-June 18 period: Leisure & Hospitality (+28%), Professional & Business Services (+23%), Wholesale & Retail Trade (+23%), Durable Goods Manufacturing (+19%), Transportation & Utilities (+19%), Construction (+17%), Education & Health Services (+16%), Financial Activities (+%), Mining (+%), Government (+14%), Information (+14%), Nondurable Goods Manufacturing (+12%), Other Services (+11%). Employers in the Education & Health Services industry sector report the strongest nationwide Outlook since the sector was first analyzed separately, more than nine years ago. Compared with the first quarter of 18, hiring prospects in the sector are slightly stronger. Employers in 10 of the 13 national industry sectors report relatively stable hiring intentions when compared with the previous quarter: Construction, Financial Activities, Government, Information, Leisure & Hospitality, Durable Goods Manufacturing, Nondurable Goods Manufacturing, Mining, Professional & Business Services and Wholesale & Retail Trade. Compared with the first quarter of 18 hiring plans are moderately weaker in the Transportation & Utilities national industry sector. In the Other Services sector for the U.S. as a whole, employers report slightly weaker hiring plans when compared with the previous quarter. The results for the Mining sector are reported only in the national survey data to ensure statistical accuracy. Industry Increase Decrease No Change Don t Know Outlook Q2 18 Seasonally Adjusted % % % % % % Construction Education & Health Services Financial Activities Government Information Leisure & Hospitality Manufacturing Durable Goods Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Mining Other Services Professional & Business Services Transportation & Utilities Wholesale & Retail Trade 24 2 71 3 22 17 18 2 78 2 16 16 18 2 78 2 16 19 2 77 2 17 14 17 3 80 0 14 14 35 4 59 2 31 28 24 3 72 1 21 19 18 4 76 2 14 12 23 3 72 2 3 82 0 12 11 29 3 67 1 26 23 24 4 71 1 19 24 3 72 1 21 23 2 ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey
Regional Comparisons +22 (+)% Midwest Payrolls are expected to increase in the next three months by 24 percent of businesses surveyed in the Midwest. With 2 percent of employers in the region expecting a decline in staffing levels, and 73 percent anticipating no change, the resulting Outlook is +22%. Once the data is adjusted to allow for seasonal variation, the Outlook for the Midwest region is unchanged quarter-over-quarter remaining at its strongest level in 17 years. Compared with the second quarter of 17, the Outlook is slightly stronger. Compared with the previous quarter, Government employers in the Midwest report moderately stronger hiring intentions. Slightly stronger Outlooks are reported in two sectors in the region Nondurable Goods Manufacturing and Professional & Business Services. Employers in four of the 12 Midwest industry sectors report relatively stable hiring plans when compared with Quarter 1 18: Education & Health Services, Durable Goods Manufacturing, Transportation & Utilities and Wholesale & Retail Trade. Hiring prospects are moderately weaker in two Midwest industry sectors when compared with the previous quarter: Construction and Other Services. In addition, employers in three of the region s 12 sectors report slightly weaker hiring plans: Financial Activities, Information and Leisure & Hospitality. 35 30 25 10 5 0-5 Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 No bar indicates Outlook of zero. Revised methodology effective Quarter 1 09. Industry Increase Decrease No Change Don t Know Outlook Q2 18 Seasonally Adjusted % % % % % % All Industries Midwest Construction Education & Health Services Financial Activities Government Information Leisure & Hospitality Manufacturing Durable Goods Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Other Services Professional & Business Services Transportation & Utilities Wholesale & Retail Trade 24 2 73 1 22 24 2 74 0 22 14 16 3 81 0 13 13 10 2 86 2 8 7 19 2 78 1 17 13 17 4 78 1 13 11 38 4 58 0 34 29 28 1 69 2 27 22 26 5 69 0 21 11 1 87 1 10 10 33 3 63 1 30 25 27 3 70 0 24 25 25 1 73 1 24 25 The Midwest Region comprises the following states: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin. ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey 3
+19 (+17)% Northeast In the Northeast, 22 percent of businesses surveyed expect to grow staffing levels during the second quarter of 18, while 3 percent anticipate a decline in payrolls. As a result, the Outlook for the Northeast stands at +19%. Once the data is adjusted to allow for seasonal variation, hiring prospects in the Northeast are unchanged when compared with the previous quarter, and are slightly stronger compared with this time one year ago. Employers in six of the 12 Northeast regional industry sectors report stronger hiring prospects when compared with Quarter 1 18. The Outlook for the Other Services sector is moderately stronger, while slight improvements are reported in the following sectors: Construction, Education & Health Services, Financial Activities, Information and Professional & Business Services. Compared with the first quarter of 18 hiring intentions remain relatively stable in three Northeast industry sectors: Government, Durable Goods Manufacturing and Nondurable Goods Manufacturing. Job seekers in three regional industry sectors can expect slightly weaker hiring prospects during the next three months when compared with the previous quarter: Leisure & Hospitality, Transportation & Utilities and Wholesale & Retail Trade. 35 30 25 10 5 0-5 Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 No bar indicates Outlook of zero. Revised methodology effective Quarter 1 09. Industry Increase Decrease No Change Don t Know Outlook Q2 18 Seasonally Adjusted % % % % % % All Industries Northeast Construction Education & Health Services Financial Activities Government Information Leisure & Hospitality Manufacturing Durable Goods Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Other Services Professional & Business Services Transportation & Utilities Wholesale & Retail Trade 22 3 73 2 19 17 27 3 69 1 24 16 19 1 78 2 18 17 0 77 3 18 12 1 84 3 11 10 11 3 85 1 8 8 35 5 58 2 30 24 23 3 71 3 19 14 3 78 5 11 10 19 3 77 1 16 14 29 3 67 1 26 23 17 3 78 2 14 12 23 5 71 1 18 21 The Northeast Region comprises the following states: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont. 4 ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey
+19 (+18)% South In the April-June period, workforce gains are expected in 22 percent of the businesses surveyed in the South. With 3 percent of employers in the region anticipating a decline in payroll numbers and 73 percent expecting no change, the Outlook for the region stands at +19%. Once the data is adjusted to allow for seasonal variation, hiring plans are unchanged when compared with the previous quarter, and remain relatively stable compared with this time one year ago. Compared with the first quarter of 18 slightly stronger hiring intentions are reported in two of the 12 industry sectors in the South: Government and Professional & Business Services. Employers in seven regional industry sectors report relatively stable hiring prospects when compared with Quarter 1 18: Construction, Education & Health Services, Financial Activities, Leisure & Hospitality, Durable Goods Manufacturing, Nondurable Goods Manufacturing and Wholesale & Retail Trade. Hiring plans are slightly weaker in three of the South s industry sectors, when compared with the previous quarter: Information, Other Services and Transportation & Utilities. 35 30 25 10 5 0-5 Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 No bar indicates Outlook of zero. Revised methodology effective Quarter 1 09. Industry Increase Decrease No Change Don t Know Outlook Q2 18 Seasonally Adjusted % % % % % % All Industries South Construction Education & Health Services Financial Activities Government Information Leisure & Hospitality Manufacturing Durable Goods Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Other Services Professional & Business Services Transportation & Utilities Wholesale & Retail Trade 22 3 73 2 19 18 21 2 74 3 19 17 18 2 79 1 16 21 4 74 1 17 16 2 76 2 18 18 17 3 80 0 14 14 36 4 59 1 32 30 25 3 72 0 22 19 16 5 78 1 11 8 14 2 83 1 12 11 30 2 67 1 28 26 21 6 72 1 17 21 4 74 1 17 The South Region comprises the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico along with the following states: Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia. ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey 5
+21 (+19)% West For 24 percent of businesses surveyed in the West, staffing levels are expected to increase during the next three months, while 3 percent expect payrolls to decline. With 71 percent of regional employers anticipating no change in employment levels, the Outlook for Quarter 2 18 stands at +21%. Once the data is adjusted to allow for seasonal variation, employers report no quarter-over-quarter change in hiring prospects, which also remain relatively stable when compared with this time one year ago. Job seekers in four of the 12 industry sectors in the West can expect stronger hiring activity when compared with the first quarter of 18. Information sector employers report a moderately stronger Outlook, while slight improvements are reported in the following sectors: Education & Health Services, Government and Leisure & Hospitality. Compared with the previous quarter relatively stable hiring prospects are reported in four of the West s industry sectors: Construction, Other Services, Professional & Business Services and Wholesale & Retail Trade. Transportation & Utilities employers in the region report considerably weaker hiring plans when compared with Quarter 1 18, while slight declines are reported in three sectors: Financial Activities, Durable Goods Manufacturing and Nondurable Goods Manufacturing. 35 30 25 10 5 0-5 Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 No bar indicates Outlook of zero. Revised methodology effective Quarter 1 09. Industry Increase Decrease No Change Don t Know Outlook Q2 18 Seasonally Adjusted % % % % % % All Industries West Construction Education & Health Services Financial Activities Government Information Leisure & Hospitality Manufacturing Durable Goods Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Other Services Professional & Business Services Transportation & Utilities Wholesale & Retail Trade 24 3 71 2 21 19 29 2 67 2 27 22 2 76 2 18 18 18 1 78 3 17 17 24 2 71 3 22 18 22 1 76 1 21 22 32 5 61 2 27 25 5 74 1 16 3 76 1 17 14 5 79 1 10 10 27 2 69 2 25 21 31 2 66 1 29 23 27 3 67 3 24 24 The West Region comprises the following states: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming. 6 ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey
Metropolitan Statistical Areas For Quarter 2 18, 100 of the largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) in the United States report positive Outlooks. Additional survey results for each MSA are available at meos-press.manpowergroup.us. Outlook Q2 18 Metropolitan Statistical Areas 32% Provo, San Antonio 30% Madison 29% Columbia, Seattle, Syracuse 28% Atlanta, Denver, Fresno, Milwaukee 27% Harrisburg, Lakeland, Minneapolis 26% Chicago, Colorado Springs, Greensboro, Omaha, Phoenix, Riverside 25% Dallas, Des Moines, Greenville 24% Albuquerque, Boise City, Charleston, Cincinnati, Honolulu, Kansas City, Memphis, Raleigh, Stockton 23% Grand Rapids, Houston, Indianapolis, Miami, Spokane 22% Austin, Birmingham, Charlotte, Chattanooga, Detroit, Louisville, Sacramento 21% Bridgeport, Buffalo, Deltona, Pittsburgh % Cape Coral, Columbus, Philadelphia, Richmond, Salt Lake City, Virginia Beach 19% Nashville, New Orleans, Palm Bay, Rochester, Wichita 18% Albany, Boston, Los Angeles, McAllen, New York, Ogden, Springfield, Worcester 17% Akron, Dayton, Jacksonville, Las Vegas, North Port, Portland, San Diego, St Louis, Toledo, Winston-Salem 16% Cleveland, Jackson, San Jose, Scranton % Bakersfield, El Paso, Knoxville, Oklahoma City, Oxnard, Washington 14% Baltimore, Baton Rouge, Tampa, Tulsa 13% Augusta, Little Rock, Orlando, Providence 12% New Haven, San Francisco, Tucson 11% Allentown 9% Youngstown 8% Hartford Survey results are available for the 100 largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas based on business establishment count. ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey 7
Global Employment Outlook ManpowerGroup interviewed over 59,000 employers across 44 countries and territories to forecast labor market activity* in Quarter 2 18. All participants were asked, How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of June 18 as compared to the current quarter? Employers forecast varying levels of job gains in 43 of 44 countries and territories during the April-June time frame, including Croatia where employers, surveyed for the first time, report healthy hiring intentions based on unadjusted survey data. When forecasts are compared with those reported in the first-quarter, hiring intentions improve in 17 countries and territories, decline in 17 and are unchanged in nine.** Some upward momentum is detected in the year-over-year comparison with forecasts improving in 25 of 43 countries and territories, declining in 13, and remaining unchanged in five. in Hungary report the most optimistic hiring plans in the EMEA region. Conversely, Italian employers report the second-quarter s weakest hiring plans, as well as the only negative forecast among all countries and territories participating in the survey. Staffing levels are expected to grow in all eight Asia Pacific countries and territories during the April-June time frame. However, second-quarter forecasts improve in only two countries and territories when compared with the first three months of the year, decline in three and are unchanged in three. Hiring plans improve in five countries and territories year-over-year, decline in two and are unchanged in one. Employers in Taiwan and Japan report the most optimistic regional hiring plans, while for the third consecutive quarter the region s weakest hiring intentions are reported by mainland Chinese employers. Among the countries and territories featuring seasonally adjusted data, confidence is strongest in Taiwan, Japan, Hungary and the United States, while the weakest hiring prospects are reported in Italy, the Czech Republic and Switzerland. Some noteworthy developments are observed in the second-quarter forecast. Employer confidence in Brazil has improved steadily for five consecutive quarters, and Brazil s cautiously optimistic second-quarter forecast indicates progress toward recovery following the negative Outlooks that prevailed through much of and all of 16. Elsewhere, Finnish employers report their most optimistic forecast since launching the survey in 12. And German employers report their strongest hiring plans in six years, as well as the strongest Manufacturing sector forecast since Quarter 4 08. Across the Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA) region, workforce gains are planned in 25 of 26 countries. Hiring plans improve in 13 countries quarter-over-quarter, weaken in eight and are unchanged in four. In a year-over-year comparison, job gains are expected to improve in 16 of the 25 countries where comparison data is available, decline in six and are unchanged in three. Based on seasonally adjusted data, employers Employers in each of the 10 countries surveyed in the Americas region expect varying levels of workforce gains in the upcoming quarter. Outlooks improve in two countries, decline in six and are unchanged in two in a quarter-over-quarter comparison. Year-over-year, hiring prospects are stronger in four countries, decline in five and are unchanged in one. Employers in the United States, Canada and Mexico report the region s most optimistic second-quarter hiring plans, while employers in Panama, Argentina and Colombia anticipate the weakest second-quarter payroll growth. Full survey results for each of the 44 countries and territories included in this quarter s survey, plus regional and global comparisons, can be found at www.manpowergroup.com/meos The next ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey will be released on 12 June 18 and will detail expected labor market activity for the third quarter of 18. * Commentary is based on seasonally adjusted data where available. Data is not seasonally adjusted for Croatia or Portugal. ** Croatia participates in the survey for the first time this quarter and has no quarter-over-quarter or year-over-year trend data at this point. 8 ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey
About the Survey The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey is conducted quarterly to measure employers intentions to increase or decrease the number of employees in their workforces during the next quarter. ManpowerGroup s comprehensive forecast of employer hiring plans has been running for more than 55 years and is one of the most trusted surveys of employment activity in the world. Various factors underpin the success of the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey: Unique: It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and area of focus. Projective: The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey is the most extensive, forward-looking employment survey in the world, asking employers to forecast employment over the next quarter. In contrast, other surveys and studies focus on retrospective data to report on what occurred in the past. Independent: The survey is conducted with a representative sample of employers from throughout the countries and territories in which it is conducted. The survey participants are not derived from ManpowerGroup s customer base. Robust: The survey is based on interviews with over 59,000 public and private employers across 44 countries and territories to measure anticipated employment trends each quarter. This sample allows for analysis to be performed across specific sectors and regions to provide more detailed information. Focused: For more than 55 years the survey has derived all of its information from a single question: For the Quarter 2 18 research, all employers participating in the survey worldwide are asked the same question, How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of June 18 as compared to the current quarter? Methodology The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey is conducted using a validated methodology, in accordance with the highest standards in market research. The survey has been structured to be representative of each national economy. The margin of error for all national, regional and global data is not greater than +/- 3.9%. Outlook Throughout this report, we use the term Net Employment Outlook. This figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage of employers expecting to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter. The result of this calculation is the Outlook. Outlooks for countries and territories that have accumulated at least 17 quarters of data are reported in a seasonally adjusted format unless otherwise stated. Seasonal adjustments have been applied to the data for all participating countries except Croatia and Portugal. ManpowerGroup intends to add seasonal adjustments to the data for other countries in the future, as more historical data is compiled. Note that in Quarter 2 08, ManpowerGroup adopted the TRAMO-SEATS method of seasonal adjustment for data. Additional Information Available Find complete survey results, including reports for the top 100 Metropolitan Statistical Areas, 50 states, District of Columbia and Puerto Rico on our website at press.manpower.com. About ManpowerGroup ManpowerGroup (NYSE: MAN), the leading global workforce solutions company, helps organizations transform in a fast-changing world of work by sourcing, assessing, developing and managing the talent that enables them to win. We develop innovative solutions for over 400,000 clients and connect 3+ million people to meaningful, sustainable work across a wide range of industries and skills. Our expert family of brands Manpower, Experis, Right Management and ManpowerGroup Solutions creates substantially more value for candidates and clients across 80 countries and territories and has done so for 70 years. In 18, ManpowerGroup was named one of the World s Most Ethical Companies for the eighth consecutive year and one of Fortune s Most Admired Companies, confirming our position as the most trusted and admired brand in the industry. See how ManpowerGroup is powering the future of work: www.manpowergroup.com. ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey 9
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