Higher Education Employment Report First Quarter 2017 / Published September 2017 Executive Summary The number of jobs in higher education increased 0.6 percent, or 22,100 jobs, during the first quarter of 2017. This was the largest first quarter increase in higher education jobs since 2012. The growth was driven by job increases at both private institutions and public colleges and universities. However, the growth rate in jobs at public institutions was four times greater despite containing roughly two-thirds more jobs than the increase at private institutions. Meanwhile, the number of postings for open positions in higher education declined 2.3 percent in 2017. The decrease was an acceleration from the previous Q4 2016 decline of 0.3 percent, which was the first decline in the number of job postings since at least 2014. The 2017 decline in higher education job postings can be attributed to a decline in job postings for full-time openings for both faculty and non-faculty positions. As of the first quarter of 2017, analyses of U.S. Department of Labor / Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on higher education employment as well as job posting trends with HigherEdJobs found: The number of jobs in higher education increased in 2017 by the largest first quarter increase in five years. Higher education job postings declined in 2017 for the second quarter in a row after several years of consecutive quarterly increases. Although the number of faculty and non-faculty job postings both declined in 2017, the mix of these types of postings appears to have recently stabilized. The decline in all job postings in 2017 was entirely driven by a decline in full-time job postings for the second consecutive quarter. Job postings for full-time faculty and full-time administrators both declined in 2017. Meanwhile, postings for part-time faculty and part-time administrative positions increased but, relative to past increases, by only moderate amounts. Job postings for open positions and employment at community colleges both decreased during 2017. The Midwest was the only region that experienced an increase in higher education job postings in 2017, while the West experienced the largest percentage decline. Page 1
About HigherEdJobs HigherEdJobs is the leading source for jobs and career information in academia. The company s website, www.higheredjobs.com, receives more than 1.5 million unique visitors a month. During 2016, roughly 5,400 colleges and universities posted 215,000 faculty, administrative, and executive job postings to HigherEdJobs. Founded in 1996, HigherEdJobs mission is to help higher education candidates and employers connect with one another to find their dream job, or employee, as quickly as possible with the least amount of effort. HigherEdJobs is published by Internet Employment Linkage, Inc. (IEL). IEL is headquartered in State College, Pa., and has an accounting and operations office in Oak Park, Ill. About this Report The HigherEdJobs Higher Education Employment Report, published quarterly, provides summary information about employment within the higher education community. The goal of the report is to help academic leaders and policymakers better appreciate the trends we are experiencing with employment. Those seeking jobs should also appreciate these same data. As background to some of the statistics we are reporting here, we define higher education employment to include all types of employment at four-year colleges and universities, two-year community colleges, and other types of higher educational training as well as trade schools, both public and private. Findings on jobs in higher education are based on data from the U.S. Department of Labor / Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), specifically the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. Except where indicated otherwise, findings on advertised job postings in higher education are based on posting data from non-profit U.S. colleges and universities that have been continually subscribed to the HigherEdJobs Unlimited Posting Plan since January 2013, a cohort of roughly 880 institutions. Each of the institutions included in this report has paid a flat fee for unlimited advertising and, consequently, has no financial deterrent to discourage it from posting any job opening on HigherEdJobs. The Higher Education Employment Report is produced by HigherEdJobs with critical analysis and expertise provided by Bruce Steinberg (www.steinbergemploymentresearch.com), an independent employment researcher. SPECIAL TECHNICAL NOTICE: For higher education employment reports published prior to Q4 2016, data from BLS s monthly Current Employment Statistics program (CES) was utilized as the source for higher education employment counts. Starting with the Q4 2016 report, BLS s Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages is used since it is more comprehensive, including all public and private institutions as well as two additional educational sectors. From Q4 2016 forward, information about higher education jobs encompasses: colleges and universities; community colleges; business, computer, and management training institutions; as well as technical and trade schools. Page 2
Finding: The number of jobs in higher education increased in 2017 by the largest first quarter increase in five years. Higher Education Jobs Compared to All U.S. Jobs (Monthly) Source: HigherEdJobs, based on U.S. Department of Labor / Bureau of Labor Statistics data, which are subject to revisions. (Note: Yellow markers are March data and presented for ease of year-over-year comparison.) Higher education employment which comprises all jobs at public and private colleges and universities, community colleges, technical and trade schools, as well as business, computer, and management training schools for this analysis expanded by 0.6 percent in 2017, or about 22,100 jobs. This was the largest first quarter increase since 2012 when it increased by essentially the same amount. Incidentally, the immediate preceding quarter of Q4 2016 was the first time the total number of higher education jobs declined in ten years, regardless of quarter. Higher education jobs represented 2.67 percent of all jobs during 2017, a metric that has been trending down primarily because overall employment has been trending up. Year-Over-Year Percent Change in: Higher Education Jobs Total Overall Non-Farm Jobs Higher Education Jobs as Percent of All Jobs Year 2017 0.6 1.58 2.67 2016 0.2 0.2 1.88 2.67 2.70 2015 0.6 0.5 2.21 2.71 2.74 2014 0.3 0.4 1.65 2.75 2.79 2013 0.2 0.2 1.49 2.79 2.82 2012 0.7 0.6 1.86 2.83 2.86 2011 1.0 1.6 0.98 2.86 2.90 Source: HigherEdJobs analysis of U.S. Department of Labor / Public institutions experienced much greater Bureau of Labor Statistics data. percentage job growth than their private counterparts despite being two-thirds larger in terms of jobs. Employment at private institutions increased 0.2 percent in 2017 from 2016, or by about 2,400 jobs, which was essentially the same as the job growth they experienced in 2016 from 2015. However, employment at public institutions increased 0.8 percent in 2017, or about 19,600 jobs, which was greater than the 0.3 percent growth or about 6,400 jobs, in 2016. Overall, the distribution of roughly 4 million higher education jobs at both public and private institutions was essentially the same in 2017 as in the immediately preceding quarter of Q4 2016. During 2017, higher education jobs were distributed as follows: 76.4 percent, or 3.05 million at colleges and universities; 18.5 percent, or about 738,300 at community colleges; 3.4 percent, or about 135,400 at technical and trade schools; and 1.8 percent, or about 70,200 at business, computer, and management training schools. Page 3
Finding: Higher education job postings declined in 2017 for the second quarter in a row after several years of consecutive quarterly increases. HigherEdJobs' Compared to All Higher Education Jobs Sources: HigherEdJobs posting data from continuing unlimited posting subscribers, higher education jobs based upon HigherEdJobs analysis of U.S. department of Labor / Bureau of Labor Statistics data. After several consecutive years of double-digit first quarter increases, the number of advertised job openings in academia declined 2.3 percent in 2017. Further analysis presented in this report shows that the decline was driven by declines in postings for full-time faculty and administrative positions and was geographically broad-based with some exceptions. Since Q2 2016, job posting growth in higher education has been weakening sequentially and crossed into negative territory during Q4 2016. They increased 28.9 percent in 2016, grew by 11.8 percent in Q2 2016, and were then only up 1.8 percent in Q3 2016. Then, in Q4 2016, the immediate previous quarter, they declined, albeit only incrementally, by 0.3 percent and as previously discussed, were down by a greater amount of 2.3 percent in 2017. Year HigherEdJobs Year-Over-Year Change (in Percent) HigherEdJobs Total Higher Education Jobs Total Higher Education Jobs 2017-2.3 0.6 2016 9.2 28.9 0.2 0.2 2015 17.7 11.6 0.6 0.5 In addition, on an annual basis, 2016 represented the smallest percentage growth in at least three years. In fact, higher education job postings were up just 9.2 percent in 2016 after increasing 17.7 percent the prior year. 2014 12.7 10.9 0.3 0.4 Sources: HigherEdJobs posting data from continuing unlimited posting subscribers; Higher education jobs based on HigherEdJobs analysis of U.S. Department of Labor / Bureau of Labor Statistics data. With the recent slowing and now declining number of overall job postings in higher education, combined with the decline in postings for full-time positions, this trend may suggest college and university employers could be attempting to adjust fixed costs, reducing their full-time personnel and relying more on part-time personnel both academically and administratively. Page 4
Finding: Although the number of faculty and non-faculty job postings both declined in 2017, the mix of these types of postings appears to have recently stabilized. Faculty Job Compared to Administrative and Executive Job Source: HigherEdJobs posting data from continuing unlimited posting subscribers. Although the number of faculty job postings as well as administrative and executive job postings both declined in 2017 from Q4 2016, the ratio between the two genres appears to have stabilized. Growth in the number of administrative and executive job postings, which had been increasing fairly consistently since at least 2014, peaked in 2016 and then sharply decelerated and crossed over to declines for the past two quarters. Meanwhile, faculty job postings also started a fairly consistent deceleration immediately after 2016, including negative growth rates in both Q3 2016 and 2017. Administrative and executive job postings declined 1.6 percent in Q4 2016 and then fell again by 2.6 percent in 2017. Meanwhile, faculty job postings declined 4.3 percent in Q3 2016, rebounded with a 2.5 percent increase in Q4 2016, but then fell by 1.6 percent in 2017. Percent of Job That Were: First Quarter The first quarter ratio of faculty to administrative and executive job postings had been consistently diminishing from 2013 to 2016, inclusive, and by some relatively large percentages. For example, from 2015 to 2016, this ratio went from 28.0 to 24.4, a drop of 3.6 percentage points. However, from 2016 to 2017, the ratio actually increased by 0.2 percentage points. This could indicate that institutions have attained some stability regarding the mix of faulty to administrative and executive positions. Year Faculty Positions Administrative and Executive Positions 2017 24.6 75.4 Faculty Positions Administrative and Executive Positions 2016 24.4 75.6 25.5 74.5 2015 28.0 72.0 27.1 72.9 2014 28.6 71.4 29.1 70.9 2013 29.9 70.1 30.5 69.5 Source: HigherEdJobs posting data from continuing unlimited posting subscribers. Note: No distinction is made between tenure track and non-tenure track faculty positions. Administrative and executive positions cover a wide variety of jobs including academic VPs, IT managers, student affairs, fundraisers, administrative assistants, etc. Page 5
Finding: The decline in all job postings in 2017 was entirely driven by a decline in full-time job postings for the second consecutive quarter. Average Percentage of Part-Time Source: HigherEdJobs posting data from continuing unlimited posting subscribers. The decrease in higher education job postings during 2017 was driven by a decline in job postings for full-time positions, only the second time this measurement has decreased since 2014, regardless of quarter. The first time was the immediately preceding quarter of Q4 2016. Job postings for part-time positions in 2017 increased but by the smallest first quarter growth rate since at least 2014. The number of job postings for full-time positions declined 4.2 percent during 2017. Regardless of quarter, this is only the second time this measurement has decreased since 2014 with the first being Q4 2016 when these postings declined 2.2 percent. In contrast, job postings for part-time positions in higher education increased 9.8 percent in 2017. However, while up, this was the second smallest rate of growth since at least 2014 regardless of quarter. The decline in postings for full-time positions in 2017 could be a result of the abnormally large amount of activity one year earlier in 2016 when these postings increased 30.2 percent, the highest growth rate regardless of quarter since at least 2014. It is conceivable that because of the large number of openings for full-time positions in 2016 and subsequent filling of those positions that one year later in 2017, institutions did not have as many openings for full-time positions as they had a year earlier. Average Percentage of Part-Time 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 16.4 18.1 18.3 18.5 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 13.6 14.5 16.4 15.3 17.6 Change in Number of Part-Time Job (in Percent) 2014 2015 2016 2017 17.7 24.4 21.4 9.8 Change in Number of Full-Time Job (in Percent) 2014 2015 2016 2017 9.9 9.8 30.2-4.2 Source: HigherEdJobs posting data from continuing unlimited posting subscribers. Page 6
Finding: Job postings for full-time faculty and full-time administrators both declined in 2017. Meanwhile, postings for part-time faculty and parttime administrative positions increased but, relative to past increases, by only moderate amounts. Portion of Job That Are Part-Time Source: HigherEdJobs posting data from continuing unlimited posting subscribers. Job postings for full-time faculty positions declined 5.5 percent in 2017 year-over-year, following declines of 2.8 percent and 1.5 percent in the preceding periods of Q3 2016 and Q4 2016, respectively. It is possible postings for full-time faculty positions reached a first quarter high watermark, at least temporarily, in 2016. During that quarter, postings for full-time faculty positions increased 15.3 percent, the biggest increase for this type of posting since 2014, regardless of quarter. Since then, however, these postings have declined relatively consistently. for full-time administrative positions were also down during 2017, declining 3.6 percent compared to the same period the year before. And, similar to the trend observed with full-time faculty postings, job postings for full-time administrative positions increased 35.7 percent the year before, the biggest increase since 2014 for this type of posting, regardless of quarter. Similarly, these postings also declined in the immediately preceding quarter of Q4 2016 when they declined 2.4 percent. Year Detail of Full-Time Compared to Part-Time Job (in Percent) Change Change in Change in Change in in Full-Time Full-Time Part-Time Part-Time Faculty Faculty Faculty Faculty 2017-5.5 10.1 2016 2.4 3.6 15.3 4.3 2015 4.9 21.1 1.8 35.4 2014 2.7 22.6 4.4 13.3 Year Change in Full-Time Admin. Change in Part-Time Admin. Change in Full-Time Admin. Source: HigherEdJobs posting data from continuing unlimited posting subscribers. Change in Part-Time Admin. 2017-3.6 9.5 2016 11.1 18.5 35.7 41.5 2015 22.4 15.9 13.4 13.8 2014 14.4 22.6 12.3 22.1 One possible explanation for the declining trend of advertisements for full-time positions could be that in 2016 institutions anticipated the need for greater numbers of faculty and administrators for future multiple academic years and subsequently filled those positions. And, after completing a mini hiring-binge, institutions may now need to create fewer new positions. Page 7
Finding: Job postings for open positions and employment at community colleges both decreased during 2017. Job and Employment at Community Colleges Sources: HigherEdJobs posting data from continuing unlimited posting subscribers; higher education jobs based on HigherEdJobs analysis of U.S. Department of Labor / Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The number of job postings at community colleges increased in 2017 but at almost half the increase of 2016. In contrast, employment at community colleges was down 1.4 percent in 2017, the 13 th consecutive quarterly decrease for this metric. The 3.9 percent decline in job postings for community college positions in 2017 was a reverse of direction from the 13.9 percent increase observed in 2016. And as observed in all institutions of higher education, the decline in 2017 was completely driven by a decrease in full-time job postings. In 2017, community college job postings for full-time positions declined 12.2 percent while postings for part-time postings increased 19.3 percent. However, Year Community College Job (HigherEdJobs) Year-Over-Year Change (in Percent) Community College Job (HigherEdJobs) Community College Jobs (BLS) Community College Jobs (BLS) 2017-3.9-1.4 2016 8.7 13.9-1.0-1.1 2015 11.8 20.6-1.4-1.0 2014 16.2 12.7-0.6-0.2 Sources: HigherEdJobs posting data from continuing unlimited posting subscribers; Higher education jobs based on analysis of U.S. Department of Labor / BLS data. it should be noted that the number of postings for full-time positions even though they declined, was slightly more than twice the number of job postings for part-time positions in 2017. Meanwhile, employment at community colleges decreased 1.4 percent, or about 9,500 jobs, during Q4 2016. Community college jobs have declined in every quarter since 2014. The 2017 decline was greater than the 1.1 percent decrease, or about 7,700 jobs seen in 2016. Note: Though most two-year institutions now designate themselves as Community Colleges, the BLS still categorizes these institutions as Junior Colleges. To avoid confusion, Junior Colleges are referred to as Community Colleges in this finding. Page 8
Finding: The Midwest was the only region that experienced an increase in higher education job postings in 2017, while the West experienced the largest percentage decline. Change in Higher Education Job by Census Region and Division 2016 to 2017 Pacific WEST CA OR WA NV ID UT Mountain MT WY CO West North Central ND SD NE KS MN IA MIDWEST MO WI MI IL East North Central IN MI KY OH WV NORTHEAST Middle Atlantic PA VA NY New England VT DE CT NJ DC NH MA MD ME RI AZ NM OK AR TN SC NC AK MS AL GA South Atlantic TX LA LEGEND HI East South Central FL > 5% > 0% to 5% West South Central SOUTH > -5% to 0% < -5% Source: HigherEdJobs job postings from unlimited posting subscribers in 2016 and 2017. During the first quarter of 2017, the Midwest region was the only region with an increase of job postings, but with only a gain of 1.8 percent from the same period last year. Incidentally, the Midwest also experienced the largest increase in job posting in the immediately preceding period of Q4 2016. Conversely, the West region experienced the largest decline in job postings during 2017, decreasing by 4.0 percent from the year before. Nationally, this 2017 cohort, which includes subscribers to HigherEdJobs Unlimited Posting Plan for the past 12 months, experienced a 2.2 percent decrease for all types of higher education job postings compared to last year. Region Percent Change in 2017 Division Percent Change in 2017 WEST -4.0 Pacific -9.7 Mountain 7.2 MIDWEST 1.8 West North Central -2.7 East North Central 3.4 SOUTH -3.0 West South Central -5.9 East South Central -13.2 South Atlantic 3.6 NORTHEAST -1.5 Middle Atlantic -1.2 New England -2.0 Source: HigherEdJobs job postings from unlimited posting subscribers in 2016 and 2017. Although the cohort examined for this regional analysis of higher education job postings differs from the cohort analyzed in the rest of this report (continuous subscribers for four years), it confirms that the overall decline in job postings for higher education jobs was broad-based and not just concentrated or driven by a single area of the country. Note: The regions and divisions used for this analysis are consistent with the official U.S. Census regions and divisions. (http://www2.census.gov/geo/pdfs/maps-data/maps/reference/us_regdiv.pdf) Page 9
Higher Education Employment Report First Quarter 2017 / Published September 2017 328 Innovation Blvd., Suite 235 State College, PA 16803 814.861.3080 higheredjobs.com media@higheredjobs.com