NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL: THE END OF HISTORY?

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Transcription:

NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL: THE END OF HISTORY? Dr. Alexei Arbatov Chairman of the Carnegie Moscow Center s Nonproliferation Program Head of the Center for International Security at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences 1

ARMS CONTROL SYSTEM IN A STATE OF DISINTEGRATION Worst crisis in 50 years 2

THE SYMPTOMS New START (BMD, CPGS) INF CTBT NPT Review Conference 2015 Iranian deal precedent? North Korea. FMCT Non-weaponization of Space Nunn-Lugar (CTR) terminated in 2013 Nuclear safety terminated in 2014 Nuclear Summit 2016 P5 nuclear discussions 4 Nuclear arms outsiders 3

THE REASONS New world order New technologies New economics 4

COLD WAR WORLD ORDER Centers of power: 1. The United States (NATO, Pacific allies) 2. The Soviet Union (Warsaw Pact, Asian allies) The threats: Global nuclear war The roots of war: 1. Surprise attack 2. Escalation of local or regional crisis (1950, 1957, 1961, 1962, 1967, 1973, 1983) 3. Nuclear proliferation 5

TOOLS OF SECURITY Hot-line Nuclear arms limitation and reduction (PTBT, ABM Treaty/SALT-I, SALT-II) Peaceful crisis settlement (Korea, Vietnam, India- Pakistan, Middle East) Nuclear arms non-proliferation (NPT Treaty) 6

POST-COLD WAR WORLD ORDER 7

POST-COLD WAR WORLD ORDER Power centers: USA, China, Russia, European Union, India, Japan, Brazil, Iran, Turkey Nuclear arms control for them Threats: international terrorism, local/trans-border conflicts, migration, religious/ethnic extremism, transborder crime Nuclear proliferation 8

TOOLS OF SECURITY Joint fight against terrorism Peace-keeping, peace-enforcement, humanitarian interventions Non-proliferation, counter-proliferation (Iraq, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Belorussia, South Africa, Brazil, Argentina, Iran, North Korea, Syria), NPT 1995, NPT AP 1997 Nuclear arms reduction and limitation (INF, START-I, START-II, START-III, SORT, New START) Moving to the periphery 9

RUSSIA AND NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL 1991-2010: Liberal leadership, integrating with the West, sorting out the Soviet nuclear legacy Yeltsin: START I (1991-1994), Nunn-Lugar program, HEU-LEU, START II (1993), START III (1997), BMD delineation (1997) Putin: Ratification of START II (2000), CTBT (2000), and Adaptation CFE (2004); SORT (2002), 9/11, Afghanistan Medvedev: New START (2010) The US/West: Yugoslavia/Kosovo (1999), Two steps of NATO extension (10 states), Iraq (2003), Libya (2011) Withdrawal from the ABM Treaty (2002) Failure to ratify CTBT BMD deployment, CPGS development 2012-2016: Conservatives leadership, confronting the West, challenging US domination. Nuclear modernization, conventional build-up, arms control linkage

TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS 12000 10000 USA 8000 Russia 6000 START-I 4000 START-II 2000 START-III SORT 0 1990 1991 1993 1997 BMD PGM/CPGS Sub-strategic nuclear arms Other nuclear arms states 2000 2002 2005 2009 2010 2012 2017 2020 2030 New START 11

BALLISTIC MISSILE DEVELOPMENT AND PROLIFERATION BMD programs: USA Russia NATO Israel China India Japan South Korea Taiwan Australia 12

A Standard Missile 3 (SM-3) Block 1B interceptor is launched from the USS LAKE ERIE (CG 70), May 16, 2013 13

RUSSIAN AIR-SPACE DEFENSE Moscow BMD (A-135) Air-defense (S-400, S-500) ASAT 14

LONG-RANGE PRECISION-GUIDED CONVENTIONAL SYSTEMS USA: Tomahawk SLCM Boost-glide AHW Russia: Kalibr Boost-diving Yu-71 ( Project 4202 ) China: DF-21, Wu-14 boost-glide 15

BOOST-GLIDE ADVANCED HYPERSONIC WEAPON 16

STRATEGIC BALANCE IN FLUX nuclear-conventional offensive-defensive bilateral-multilateral global-regional traditional-cyber arms reduction / non-proliferation (Iran/BMD/INF) 17

THIRD NUCLEAR ARMS STATES 7500 7260 Number of nuclear warheads, 2015 г. 1000 300 215 120 110 80 8? 18

GROWTH OF WORLD NUCLEAR ENERGY Prospects for nuclear energy development, 2015-20135 580 570 560 540 Number of commercial reactors 520 500 480 460 440 480 440 420 400 2015 2025 2035 year 19

Nuclear arsenals and proliferation Source: Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris, Global nuclear weapons inventories, 1945 2013, Bulletin of 20the Atomic Scientists, 2013, No. 69(5), p. 76, http://bos.sagepub.com/content/69/5/75.full.pdf+html.

Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on Iran s nuclear program, July 14, 2015 North Korea s nuclear program 21

End the new US-Russian Cold War Untangle strategic knot: START follow on BMD Strategic conventional systems Sub-strategic nuclear arms Third nuclear arms states 22

THANK YOU 23

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