Decision-Making in an Uncertain World: Regulatory Challenges. nuclearsafety.gc.ca

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Decision-Making in an Uncertain World: Regulatory Challenges IAEA International Experts Meeting May 21 st to 24 th 2013 Vienna, Austria nuclearsafety.gc.ca Dr. Jean-Yves Fiset Human Factors Specialist Directorate of Safety Management e-docs # 4133836

Outline Objectives Plant States, Accidents and Decision-Making Challenges and Promising Developments Conclusions Questions 2

Objectives Identify challenges for decision-making when dealing with nuclear accidents ranging from design basis accidents to severe accidents, from the perspective of a regulator Contribute to safety improvement initiatives Identify areas for research 3

Plant States, Accidents and DecisionMaking Some terminology first Procedural barriers Level of defence in-depth 1 SAMGs EOPs Physical barriers: - Fuel matrix - Fuel sheath/cladding - Reactor coolant pressure boundary - Containment - Exclusion zone 2 3 4, 5 AOO DBA BDBA Normal operation SA Negligibly small radiological releases Potential large radiological releases Accident management program -306 Emergency preparedness program Dependence on emergency preparedness and response Severity of an accident 4

Plant States, Accidents and Decision- Making Decision-making Several available classifications, but simple (and sensible) often works best Rasmussen s S-R-K Skill, rule and knowledge-based behaviour (SBB) On any given day, a mixture of these behaviours is used incorrect to assume that normal operations are purely SBB and RBB, and that abnormal, unexpected situations are solely KBB SBB and (mostly) RBB are normally supported by operating manuals or emergency operating procedures (EOPs), training and proper supervision 5

Plant States, Accidents and Decision- Making Individual decision-making is important but is not the whole story Individual and crew Event-handling strategies are specified and practiced to ensure robust handling of abnormal operating occurrences (AOOs) and design basis accidents (DBAs) Judicious combination and coordination of event-based and symptom-based EOPs, proper allocation of roles to the operating crew) Locus of control for decision-making Up to and including DBAs: essentially the crew, with alerting of emergency response team as warranted Staffing Licensees for power plants are normally required to maintain a predetermined number of qualified personnel, known as the minimum shift complement (MSC) 6

Plant States, Accidents and Decision- Making Putting it together and looking forward Plant States Probability of rad. release Response to be performed Locus of control Type of response Type of decision-making Staffing Normal Operating manuals AOO Within design basis accidents DBAs Local (or mostly) EOPs (event based) Minimum Shift Complement (MSC) Not DBA but emcompassed by them Beyond design basis accidents BDBA without significant core degradation Severe accidents Accident Management Program Emerg. Preparadness EOPs (event based) EOPs (event or symptom based) Possibly more global EOPs (event or symptom based) SAMGs Mostly S, a fair bit of R, at times a bit of K Some S, some R, at times some K Sufficient number of qualified staff (includes MSC and some) 7

Challenges and Promising Developments Change in the locus of control, on-site From MSC to another group (at the facility) Change in the locus of control, on and off-site From the local level to a more global level Understanding what KBB is and how to best support it How to enable individuals, and the team, to deal as well as possible with the unexpected Integration with accident response (i.e., accident handling) Some scientific knowledge is available, but far more is needed How to specify requirements for sufficient number of qualified staff Roles, qualifications vs knowledge, mission time, availability, etc. 8

Conclusion Reviewed existing knowledge on decision-making and accident management Identified issues and challenges in the decision-making behaviours for the management of nuclear accidents and associated emergencies changes in the locus of control, on-site and off-site, lack of knowledge about how to best support decision-making at the KBB level, and definition of what is meant by sufficient number of qualified staff. Opportunity for the regulator and industry to deepen knowledge and improve accident response planning 9

Questions? nuclearsafety.gc.ca 10

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