G-2 Title Global Chokepoints Date December 2011 US Army TRADOC G2 TRADOC Intelligence Support Activity (TRISA) Threats Publication Date: 15 December 11 Information Cut-Off Date: 21 November 11 US Army TRADOC G2 TRADOC Intelligence Support Activity (TRISA) Threats 1
Purpose To inform deploying units, trainers, and scenario writers of potential maritime chokepoints. To identify the maritime chokepoints that could represent potential areas of operation of Army ground forces. To analyze the strategic, operational, and tactical significance of nine major chokepoints. Product Caveat: This presentation has been developed from multiple unclassified sources and is primarily intended for use as a training product for the Department of Army. This briefing should not be considered a finished intelligence product, nor used in such a manner. 2
A ship s a fool to fight a fort. -Lord Horatio Nelson 3
Potential Global Chokepoints Bosporus/ Dardanelles Gibraltar Suez Canal Strait of Hormuz Panama Canal Bab-el-Mandeb Strait of Malacca Cape Horn Cape of Good Hope The security of the land approaches around global chokepoints is a key US security and economic interest and is vital to the overseas deployment of ground combat forces. 4
Strait of Hormuz Strategically, the Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important oil chokepoints on the planet. 1 Operationally, the Iranian military maintains the ability to close the Strait for a period of time. 1 Tactically, the Strait is narrow and provides perfect terrain for the employment of various asymmetrical Naval capabilities. 2 Strait of Hormuz, NASA, 2001 Forced closure of the Strait of Hormuz is Iran s most likely course of action in the event of any major hostilities. The resumption of oil export following such a closure would probably be a key US goal. 5
Suez Canal Strategically, the Suez Canal remains a prime oil pathway and chokepoint for the movement and sustainment of forces into the Indian Ocean and Southwest Asia. 1 Operationally, the Suez Canal is controlled along its length by the Egyptian military. Tactically, the Canal is narrow for practically its entire length. This allows for potential groundbased interdiction along nearly its entire route. 2 Suez Canal, NASA, 2001 The Suez is Egypt s economic crown jewel and will be robustly defended. The combination of its vital nature to the global economy, status as a major transit site, and Egypt s current political volatility make it a prime consideration for future regional planning. 6
Bab-el-Mandeb Strategically, while the US maintains forces in Djibouti, Yemen is currently highly unstable and an operational home to terrorist elements. Bab-el- Mandeb is a highly important shipping chokepoint. 1 Operationally, in addition to a history of direct attacks by terrorists, piracy remains a prime concern in this area. 2 Tactically, Bab-el-Mandeb is 18 miles wide at its narrowest point. 2 Bab-el-Mandeb, NASA, 2006 While advanced anti-access weapons are unlikely to be introduced into the area, Bab-el-Mandeb is a focus for a Shia uprising in Yemen, and general instability throughout the Horn of Africa. Combined with its importance as a shipping point, this area is a prime candidate for operations by US ground forces. 7
Strait of Malacca Strategically, the Strait of Malacca is one of the most globally vital in the world. Chinese interest 1 30% of the world s manufactured goods transit this point in a given year 1 Operationally, this area is a focal point for increased defense spending and attention by the Chinese and local nations. 1 Tactically, the Strait of Malacca is 2.5 km at its narrowest point. 2 Strait of Malacca, NASA, 2008 While piracy is less of a problem, Southeast Asia s general arms race will likely have security ramifications here, as this area is the most likely candidate for the introduction of advanced anti-access weapons. 8
Bosporus/Dardanelles Strategically, the Bosporus and Dardanelles is a prime oil export route. 1,2 Also a highly important point for the Northern Distribution Network into Afghanistan 3 Operationally, this area is controlled by the Turkish military; limitations on civilian shipping are minimal, though Turkey has the right to restrict military passage under the Montreux Convention. 4 Tactically, Turkish control over the straits is functionally absolute. 5 Bosporus, NASA, 2004 The straits have been globally important terrain for ground troops since the Greek/Persian wars of ~480 BCE, and that importance is likely to grow considering the projected impact of Caspian basin oil to address global growth in petroleum consumption. 9
Panama Canal Strategically, the Panama Canal remains a vital global shipping link and prime means of east-west transit for Naval vessels. 1 Over 13-15% of US cargo transits the Canal. 1 Operationally, while it is under Panamanian control, the US retains unique unilateral defense rights to secure the Canal. 2 Tactically, there is close cooperation between Panama and the US. Topographic graphic of Panama Canal looking west, NASA, 2002 The Canal retains its importance to US defense and economic interests despite its aging infrastructure. Panamanian relations with the US remain strong. 10
Straits of Gibraltar Strategically, Gibraltar is a British Overseas Territory controlling the north part of the chokepoint, with Moroccan and Spanish territory on the southern side. Operationally, transit through the area is assured by British, Moroccan, and Spanish military forces. Tactically, the most likely threat to US forces in the area remains al-qaeda linked terrorism based from North Africa. 1 Gibraltar, looking east, NASA, 1994 The western Mediterranean is home to three US counter-terrorism allies, but serves as an area of operations for Islamist insurgents. The potential for more robust ground operations in the area remains a possibility. 11
Cape of Good Hope/Southern Africa Strategically, while the area s current trade importance is relatively low, the potential economic value and military importance would increase should other chokepoints be threatened. 1 Operationally, South Africa remains the strongest military power in the region. Tactically, Arctic areas represent one of the more difficult operational areas for ground forces in the world. Cape of Good Hope/ Southern Africa, NASA, 2004 While currently less valuable than more direct routes, the route around southern Africa will increase in importance if current preferred shipping routes are interdicted. 12
Cape Horn/Southern South America Strategically, while the current trade importance of the area is low, Antarctica s potential economic value and sovereignty issues arising from multiple claims provide the rationale for engagement and conflict. 1 Operationally, employed forces are likely to be small. Tactically, Arctic areas represent one of the more difficult operational areas for ground forces in the world. Southern South America, NASA, 2005 While near-term ground combat operations in the Antarctic regions are unlikely, two local nations are pursuing a nuclear attack submarine program, and the status of the Falklands remains a sore point in Argentine/United Kingdom relations. Preparation for operations in Arctic environment should remain a planning and training consideration. 13
Training Implications Potential action on securing global chokepoints includes operations along the spectrum of Army Decisive Action (DA) operations. The growth in the development and deployment of anti-access/area denial (A2AD) weapons to chokepoints could limit the overseas deployment of US ground forces, requiring ground control of these areas to ensure access. The requirement for continued passage along many of these chokepoints is a prerequisite for current and potential Army operations in many likely potential Areas of Operation. The passages represent a variety of climatic and tactical conditions and considerations. At the home station, units can prepare for operations throughout a variety of climatic conditions. 14
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