Industry Market Research release date: November 2016 ALL US [238220] Plumbing, Heating, and Air-Conditioning Contractors Sector: Construction Contents P1: Industry Population, Time Series P2: Cessation Rates P3: Industry Market Volume, Average Annual Sales P4: Sales Trends by Employment Class P5: Employment Class Trends P6: Sales per Employee P7: Industry Startup Trends and Activity P8: Industry Concentration Trends P9: About the Data Time Series Coverage: Base Report 2013-2016q2 Monthly Update December 2016 December 2016 Update Establishments 161,067 Annual Market Volume $236,627,202,872 Avg. Annual Site Sales $1,469,123 Industry Population Analyzed 2013 2014 2015 2016q2 Firms 178,924 168,312 166,575 157,654 Establishments Small Businesses Branches 189,270 179,060 177,523 168,591 171,843 161,566 159,843 151,118 10,346 10,748 10,948 10,937 Establishments: Firms plus Branch operations. Firms: Independent companies. Small Businesses: In order to focus the analysis on the small businesses of greatest interest to our users, the analysis defines small businesses as single site firms with fewer than 25 employees. All small businesses are also "firms". Branches: Subsidiary facilities of firms; non-headquarters operations. Startups: Startup information is consolidated in the section Startup Activity and Trends on P5. The Time Series: The report analyzes trends in each calendar year the 12 months (real time) ending in December of that year. Our Fall-Winter posting captures mid-year content for most metrics, measuring the 12 months through the end of Q-2 for the final time point. Content is adjusted to account for time lags in raw data. We adjust the time series to compensate; the dates shown generally reflect the actual time series shown in the Time Series table. 1
Cessation Rates 2014 to 2015 Cessation Rates Establishments 8.00% Firms Small Businesses Branches 8.24% 8.48% 4.18% 9 8.00 8.24 8.48 8 7 6 5 4.18 4 3 2 1 0 Establishments Firms Small Businesses Branches Business Cessation Rates: Cessation rates track the actual experience of business establishments, firms, small businesses, branches and startups doing business at the start of the time series, and still in operation today. Startup cessation rates are displayed separately in the section Startup Activity and Trends on P6. "Survivors" are business operations within a given category which have maintained operations during the time series. Cessation rates for all industries are specific to the selected industry and market area. Firms which have experienced a transfer in ownership but continue as independent firms are considered "survivors". Firms which relocate but maintain independent operations are considered survivors if they do not move out of the jurisdiction being analyzed. Firms which are purchased or merge and become subsidiary locations, or whose location is terminated, are grouped with others which ceased operation. Any business entity which does not evidence ongoing operations (for example, by registering with government agencies, credit reporting services or business directories) is considered to have ceased viable operations and is classified in the "ceased operation" category. The Cessation rate analysis is developed for discrete business segments by segregating the original pool of tracked firms by industry classification, location, and population segment (all firms, small businesses, startups etc.) That beginning universe is segregated and tracked to develop the cessation rate for that group. As a result, cessation rates occasionally reflect performance above 100% or below 0% due to business migration among industries (changes in primary business line) or (in the case of location-specific cessation rates) due to business relocations during the analysis period. Migrants within a NAICS-2 industry sector are considered as survivors in the in-migrant classification. 2
Industry Market Volume, Average Sales and Sales Trends by Employment Class Annual Market Volume ($) 2013 249,305,814,144 2014 249,699,524,610 2015 265,809,176,464 2016q2 246,525,875,190 Annual Market Volume Reports sales volume of market area industry business operations, based on the number of industry employees and sales per employee data developed by BizMiner. This number includes headquarters operations and branches of any industry firms located within the selected market area. It excludes branch operations located outside the market area. Local subsidiaries of firms headquartered outside the market area are included. Statistics in our reports are always based on firms that identify a particular classification as their primary line of business. This is important for researchers assessing market volume, which in our reports is based on businesses primarily in a given classification, and does not include sales data for firms which may operate this type of business as a secondary or tertiary line. Average Annual Sales 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,462,272 1,563,715 1,000,000 965,862 500,000 0 Site Firms Small Businesses Site Sales Firms Small Business 2013 1,317,197 1,393,362 863,038 2014 1,394,502 1,483,552 908,862 2015 1,497,322 1,595,733 952,996 2016q2 1,462,272 1,563,715 965,862 Change: 11.0% 12.2% 11.9% Average Annual Sales: The Average Annual Sales table displays "snapshot" average dollar sales for all industry sites (including branches), firms, and small businesses in each of the three years in the time series. The Change rows express the growth or decline of these snapshots in percentage terms. Although the relationship of local branches and firms is unknown, the average firm data is calculated based on the assumption of local branch ownership. While there is significant overlap of firms in each category between years, results can be affected by business failures, mergers and the migration of companies between the three categories. Migration between business classifications has a much lesser impact in most cases. 3
Sales Trends by Employment Class Market Volume by Employment Class ($ Million) The Market Volume by Employment Class table displays the total market sales of industry operations which fall into each of three employment brackets (1-24 employees; 25-99 employees; 100-plus employees). This data reflects all establishments in the selected industry market area; the Small Business population and sales data on Pp1-3 refers to firms with fewer than 25 employees only (not establishments). Data is displayed in millions of dollars for each of the three years of the time series. Projected sales of operations for which sales cannot be ascertained are noted in the Unknown column and are based on average industry site sales in the market area. Small 1-24 Medium 25-99 Large 100+ Unknown Total 2013 148,307.0 55,351.1 45,647.7 0.0 249,305.8 2014 146,841.2 54,385.6 48,472.7 0.0 249,699.5 2015 152,329.8 57,949.6 55,529.8 0.0 265,809.2 2016q2 145,959.2 55,605.4 44,961.3 0.0 246,525.9 Percent Market Volume by Employment Class The Percent Market Volume by Employment Class table displays the market share within each employment class, making it easy to see whether the market is dominated by small or larger operations. Small 1-24 Medium 25-99 Large 100+ Unknown Total 2013 59.49% 22.20% 18.31% 0.00% 100.00% 2014 58.81% 21.78% 19.41% 0.00% 100.00% 2015 57.31% 21.80% 20.89% 0.00% 100.00% 2016q2 59.21% 22.56% 18.24% 0.00% 100.00% Average Sales by Employment Class x 1,000 The Average Sales by Employment Class table calculates the average sales within each operational employment bracket, suggesting benchmarks for operations within each. Small 1-24 Medium 25-99 Large 100+ Unknown ALL 2013 820 7,702 37,601 0 1,317 2014 859 7,843 41,536 0 1,395 2015 901 7,929 47,300 0 1,497 2016q2 915 7,915 39,754 0 1,462 4
Employment Class Trends Establishments by Employment Class Establishments by Employment Class: Using the same general format as the previous Market Volume by Employment Class table, the Establishments by Employment Class analysis displays the distribution of industry establishments (not just firms, and including branches) among three employment size categories. An Unknown column on the right reports the number of industry establishments which do not identify employment data, followed by total establishment figures. The Unknown column reflects non-reporting firms, based on average industry operational scale. This analysis method makes it possible to observe significant shifts in employment, toward larger or smaller operations. Small 1-24 Medium 25-99 Large 100+ Unknown Total 2013 180,869 7,187 1,214 0 189,270 2014 170,959 6,934 1,167 0 179,060 2015 169,040 7,309 1,174 0 177,523 2016q2 160,435 7,025 1,131 0 168,591 Total Employment by Class Total Employment by Class: This table presents the total employment reported in each employment class bracket. The Unknown column reflects a projection made for non-reporting firms, based on average industry operational scale. Small 1-24 Medium 25-99 Large 100+ Unknown Total 2013 801,460 299,121 246,683 0 1,347,264 2014 771,156 285,613 254,561 0 1,311,330 2015 808,450 307,552 294,710 0 1,410,712 2016q2 775,113 295,291 238,766 0 1,309,170 Average Employment by Class The Average Employment by Class table calculates the average number of employees within each employment bracket. Small 1-24 Medium 25-99 Large 100+ Unknown ALL 2013 4 42 203 0 7 2014 5 41 218 0 7 2015 5 42 251 0 8 2016q2 5 42 211 0 8 5
Sales Per Employee Annual Sales per Employee Industry 2013 185,046 2014 190,417 2015 188,422 2016q2 188,307 200,000 190,417 188,422 188,307 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2014 2015 2016q2 Sales per Employee: As a common indicator of productivity Sales per Employee data is presented for each of the three years in the time series. Local reports generally calculate industry-specific local sale per employee data. Where localized data is unavailable, industry-specific projections may be applied from larger market areas. 6
Industry Startup Trends and Activity Industry Entrepreneurship Performance 2016q2 Startup Firms 12,587 Average Startup Sales 857,876 Total Startup Firm Market Volume 10,798,088,301 Startup Firm Market Share 4.38% Year-end 2013 Startup Firms 12,855 Year-end 2016q2 Startup Survivors 11,373 Startup Firm Cessation Rate 11.53% Industry Entrepreneurship Performance: This analysis considers only startup firms, excluding new branch operations. Corresponding small business and industry-wide benchmarks for average annual sales, market volume and share, and cessation rates can be found beginning on P3 of the report. Industry Startup Activity Industry Startup Firms 12,587 Industry New Branches 793 Industry Startup Rate 7.94% US All-Industry Startup Rate 9.92% Industry Startup Index 0.80 Industry Startup Activity: The Industry Startup Rate considers both new firms and newly developed branch operations. It measures the percentage of industry startups which indicate one year or less of operation during the one year period reflected by the Time Series table -- and which maintained operation through the end of the time series. These startup operations are compared to the number of all operations in the industry for which ages can be identified to create the Startup Rate. This is then compared to the US All-Industry Startup Rate, the national economy-wide startup percentage. The Industry Startup Index benchmarks the industry rate against national all-industry patterns, expressed as a two-digit decimal where the all-industry rate equals 1.00. An Index of 1.10 indicates an industry rate 10% above the national all-industry average. 7
Industry Concentration Trends Industry Concentrations (% of total area) 2013 2014 2015 2016q2 Establishments 1.1804% 1.1560% 1.1278% 1.0760% Employment 0.8262% 0.7949% 0.8304% 0.7911% Sales 0.5605% 0.5758% 0.6277% 0.5375% Industry Concentrations: The Establishment Concentration compares the number of operating establishments in this industry and market area to those in the market area economy overall for each of three years. The Employment Concentration is comparably analyzed, displaying reported employment in the local industry to the economy. The Sales Concentration shows the industry percentage of total local economy-wide sales. In each case, the three year trend indicates the increasing or decreasing importance of the industry for the economic metric under review. Consolidation Trends Industry Branch Concentration 2013: 5.47% Industry Branch Concentration 2014: 6.00% Industry Branch Concentration 2015: 6.17% Industry Branch Concentration 2016q2: 6.49% All US Branch Concentration 2013: 12.13% All US Branch Concentration 2014: 12.87% All US Branch Concentration 2015: 12.68% All US Branch Concentration 2016q2: 12.71% Consolidation Trends: The Consolidation Trends table displays three years of national all industry-specific data reflecting the percentage of branch operations to all establishments (Industry Branch Concentration), and compares that to three years of economy-wide data reflecting national all-industry branch operation percentages (All US Branch Concentration). Taken together, the two measures indicate increasing or decreasing trends toward industry consolidation, either as a standalone metric or benchmarked against economy-wide patterns. 8
Market Area Demographic Highlights (based on zip codes co-joined with your market radius) (2015) Total population Total population 316,515,021 Male 155,734,280 49.20% Female 160,780,741 50.80% Age 5-9 Years 20,501,982 6.48% 10-14 Years 20,679,786 6.53% 15-19 Years 21,354,481 6.75% 20-24 Years 22,604,232 7.14% 25-34 Years 42,881,649 13.55% 35-44 Years 40,651,910 12.84% 45-54 Years 43,895,858 13.87% 55-59 Years 21,001,947 6.64% 60-64 Years 18,415,681 5.82% 65-74 Years 25,135,167 7.94% 75-84 Years 13,541,558 4.28% 85-plus Years 5,938,752 1.88% Median Age 38 Race/Ethnicity White 232,943,055 Hispanic (all races) 54,232,205 African American 39,908,095 Native American 2,569,170 Asian 16,235,305 Asian Indian 3,303,512 2-plus Races 9,447,883 9
Employment Population: 16-plus Years 251,221,309 100% Labor force 159,913,288 63.65% Mean Commute (minutes) 44.6 Civilian Labor Force 158,897,824 63.25% Civilian employment 145,747,779 58.02% Unemployed 13,150,045 5.23% Work at Home 6,352,737 2.53% Income Total households 159,913,288 100% Below $10k Income 8,421,482 7.20% $10k-14.9k Income 6,161,477 5.27% $15k-24.9k Income 12,367,168 10.58% $25k-34.9k Income 11,803,974 10.10% $35k-49.9k Income 15,672,431 13.40% $50k-74.9k Income 20,827,239 17.81% $75k-99.9k Income 14,166,538 12.12% $100k-149.9k Income 15,356,540 13.13% $150k-199.9k Income 6,010,418 5.14% >$200k Income 6,139,038 5.25% Median HH Income ($) 53,889 Mean HH Income ($) 75,558 Per Capita Income ($) 28,930 Education Population 25+ Years 211,462,522 100% High School Graduate 58,722,528 27.8% Some College (no degree) 44,529,161 21.1% Associate's Degree 17,029,467 8.1% Bachelor's degree 39,166,047 18.5% Graduate/Professional degree 23,786,225 11.2% % High School Graduate or Higher (total) 183,338,007 86.7% % Bachelor's Degree or Higher (total) 63,015,832 29.8% 10
Housing Total Housing Units 133,351,840 100% Occupied Housing Units 116,926,305 87.68% Type of Housing 1 Unit Detached Housing Structures 82,191,994 61.64% 1 Unit Attached Housing Structures 7,759,217 5.82% 2 Unit Housing Structures 4,971,562 3.73% 3-4 Unit Housing Structures 5,912,247 4.43% 5-9 Unit Housing Structures 6,376,769 4.78% 10-19 Unit Housing Structures 6,001,085 4.50% 20-plus Unit Housing Structures 11,549,570 8.66% Mobile Home Housing Units 8,478,334 6.36% Boat-RV-Van Housing Units 111,062 0.08% Age of Housing Occupants per Unit Housing Built 2010 or Later 2,088,507 1.57% Housing Built 2000-2009 19,861,107 14.89% Housing Built 1990-1999 18,636,635 13.98% Housing Built 1980-1989 18,331,828 13.75% Housing Built 1970-1979 20,932,720 15.70% Housing Built 1960-1969 14,589,774 10.94% Housing Built 1950-1959 14,315,811 10.74% Housing Built 1940-1949 7,034,375 5.28% Housing Built 1939 or Before 17,561,083 13.17% 133,351,840 133,351,840 Units with less than 1 Occupant Per Room 113,036,454 96.67% Units with 1.1-1.5 Occupants Per Room 2,714,269 2.32% Units with 1.51-plus Occupants Per Room 1,175,582 1.01% 11
Median Value of Owner Occupied Units ($) 1,670,499 Owner Occupied Units: Value < $50k 6,768,763 9.06% Owner Occupied Units: Value $50k-$99.9k 11,461,502 15.34% Owner Occupied Units: Value $100k-$149.9k 11,804,066 15.80% Owner Occupied Units: Value $150k-$199.9k 11,244,363 15.05% Owner Occupied Units: Value $200k-$299.9k 13,637,664 18.25% Owner Occupied Units: Value $300k-$499.9k 11,822,996 15.82% Owner Occupied Units: Value $500k-$999.9k 6,302,238 8.44% Owner Occupied Units: Value >$1 Million 1,670,499 2.24% Owner-Occupied Units with Mortgage 48,414,291 41.41% Owner-Occupied Units without Mortgage 26,297,800 22.49% Occupied Units Paying Rent 39,969,262 100% Median Rent Paid 928 Occupied Units Paying <$500 Rent 4,722,407 11.82% Occupied Units Paying $500-$999 Rent 17,866,504 44.70% Occupied Units Paying $1000-$1499 Rent 10,819,445 27.07% Occupied Units Paying $1500-$1999 Rent 4,016,398 10.05% Occupied Units Paying $2000-$2499 Rent 1,474,640 3.69% Occupied Units Paying $2500-$3000 Rent 560,051 1.40% Occupied Units Paying $3000 or More Rent 509,817 1.28% Rent Paid < 15% of Income (Households) 4,667,482 11.68% Rent Paid 15%-19.9% of Income (Households) 4,764,132 11.92% Rent Paid 20%-24.9% of Income (Households) 4,893,326 12.24% Rent Paid 25%-29.9% of Income (Households) 4,480,154 11.21% Rent Paid 30%-34.9% of Income (Households) 3,549,855 8.88% Rent Paid 35%-plus of Income (Households) 16,660,987 41.68% 12
About the Data Raw data analyzed for BizMiner reports is sourced from an array of the nation's government and private statistical sources. None of these raw data sources creates the final measures reflected in BizMiner industry profiles. In total, BizMiner accesses over a billion sourced data points from 15 million business operations for each of its twice annual updates covering a 3-5 year time series. Historical data and BizMiner algorithms are used to inform and test projections for non-reporting firms. Data elements are sourced specifically from: IRS SOI Corporation Tax Book IRS Statistics of Income US Economic Census US Census Quarterly Financial Reports US Census County Business Patterns Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Reports Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Unemployment Reports Bureau of Labor Statistics Annual Wage Survey Bureau of Labor Statistics Industry Productivity Reports Bureau of Labor Statistics Price Indices National Agricultural Statistical Service US Census Quarterly Financial Reports US Census Retail Trade Report InfoGroup, Inc. Credit Reporting Agencies Business Directories American Community Survey While 100% firm coverage is desirable for analysis purposes, the greatest value of BizMiner reports rests in discerning patterns of activity, which are reflected in the large samples used to develop our reports. The overall current coverage of the databases surpasses 13 million active business operations at any point in time. As is the case with any databases this large, some errors are inevitable. Some firms are missed and specific information on others is lacking from the database. Not all information received is uniform or complete, resulting in the need to develop projection algorithms for specific industry segments and metrics in some report series. No representation is made as to the accuracy of the databases utilized or the results of subsequent analyses. Neither the Brandow Company nor its resellers has undertaken independent primary research to confirm the accuracy of the data utilized in the Profile analyses. Neither the Brandow Company nor its resellers are responsible for conclusions drawn or decisions made based upon this data or analysis. In no event will the Brandow Company or its resellers be liable for any damages, direct, indirect, incidental or consequential resulting from the use of the information contained in BizMiner reports. 13