The Future of the Valley: Do we actually know what to expect?

From the SelectedWorks of Jacobus J. "Jaap" Vos July, 2014 The Future of the Valley: Do we actually know what to expect? Jaap Vos Available at: https://works.bepress.com/jaap_vos/28/

The Future of the Valley Do we actually know what to expect? Jaap Vos Department of Community and Regional Planning jaapvos@boisestate.edu July 16, 2014 2012 Boise State University 1

We know a tremendous amount about the ecosystem, the water, snowpack, the hydrology and how to model the system. We know hardly anything about the people and the human system. 2012 Boise State University 2

The problem with the human system is the increasing pace of change: How many people will live here? Who will these people be? What preferences/needs will they have? Homes, transportation, amenities, employment People have become increasingly mobile. People have more access to information and they have it quick. 2012 Boise State University 3

Everybody thinks they know planning. Nobody but experts claim to know anything about water, geology, hydrology or modeling. 2012 Boise State University 4

Boise is ranked among the best cities in the US. Livability data 2012 Boise State University 5

Idaho has a low educational attainment compared to other states. 2012 Boise State University 6

Idaho educational attainment: 2012 Boise State University 7

Idaho educational attainment: 8 % 12 % 24 % 24 % 30 % 2012 Boise State University 8

Boise has both a low educational attainment and low income levels. New York Times Map 2012 Boise State University 9

Manhattan Institute identified Idaho as main growth corridor. 2012 Boise State University 10

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Some Idaho facts: 2000 2010 Change Population 1,293,953 1,567,582 21% 273,629 Median age 33.2 34.6 White (%) 91.0 89.1 16% Black (%) 0.4 0.6 82% 4,230 Hispanic (%) 7.9 11.2 73% 96,638 Mexican (%) 6.1 9.5 Household size 2.7 2.7 Family size 3.2 3.2 Housing units 527,824 667,796 27% Seasonal housing 27,478 41,660 52% 2012 Boise State University 12

Meridian is one of the fastest growing cities in the US: 2012 Boise State University 13

Obviously Meridian is on its way to become the biggest city in Idaho. 2012 Boise State University 14

Certainly not in my life: 2010 2011 2012 2013 % Absolute Boise 206,345 209,258 212,237 214,237 4% 7892 Nampa 81,836 82,632 83,921 86,518 6% 4682 Meridian 75,602 77,867 80,409 83,596 11% 7994 2012 Boise State University 15

The Treasure Valley will have 1 million people by 2040. 2012 Boise State University 16

The projections for the region seem significantly off: 2010 2011 2012 2013 % Absolute 2015 % Boise 206,345 209,258 212,237 214,237 4% 7892 245,565 14.6 % Nampa 81,836 82,632 83,921 86,518 6% 4682 97,580 12.7 % Meridian 75,602 77,867 80,409 83,596 11% 7994 94,289 12.8 % 2012 Boise State University 17

The projections for the region seem significantly off: 2010 2011 2012 2013 % Absolute 2015 % Boise 206,345 209,258 212,237 214,237 4% 7892 245,565 14.6 % Nampa 81,836 82,632 83,921 86,518 6% 4682 97,580 12.7 % Meridian 75,602 77,867 80,409 83,596 11% 7994 94,289 12.8 % Total 384,351 53,083 437,434 That means we would have to have about 723 people move to the Treasure Valley every day. 2012 Boise State University 18

If it were only that easy. SO WHAT IS REALLY GOING ON WITH THE LOCAL POPULATION? 2012 Boise State University 19

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Educational Attainment 2000 Male Female 38.2 34.9 21 25.1 23.4 20.1 9.2 9.2 11.5 7.4 9.2 23.1 36.5 21.7 9.5 No Diploma High School Some College Bachelors Graduate 2012 Boise State University 22

Educational Attainment 2012 Male Female 38 34.5 20.8 22.6 24.1 23.2 13.7 6.9 6.5 9.7 6.7 21.7 36.2 23.7 11.7 No Diploma High School Some College Bachelors Graduate 2012 Boise State University 23

Changes between April 1, 2010 and July 1, 2013: Idaho's population grew by 44,495 people (growth of 2.8%) Ada County's population grew by 24,099 people (growth of 6.1%) Boise MSA grew by 5.5 percent to a population of 650,288. That growth rate means that it was one of the fastest growing MSAs in the country. 28 of the 44 Counties in Idaho lost population 36 of the 44 Counties in Idaho had a negative net migration Ada, Canyon, Kootenai, Latah, Lewis, Nez Perce, Shoshone and Twin Falls County had more people moving into the county than moving out 2012 Boise State University 24

Some local facts: Ada County Canyon County 2000 2010 2000 2010 Population 300,904 392,365 131,441 188,923 Median age 32.8 34.8 30.5 31.6 White 92.9 90.3 85.5 85.7 Black 1.0 1.1 0.5 0.6 Hispanic 4.5 7.1 18.6 23.9 Mexican 3.0 5.4 14.9 21.0 Household size 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.9 Family size 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.4 Housing units 113,408 159,471 47,965 69,409 Seasonal housing 483 1,018 251 280 2012 Boise State University 25

General Observations: Idaho is getting somewhat more diverse. In general, rural areas are losing population, urban centers are growing. This includes economic productive centers and resort centers. Idaho seems to be getting slightly older. 2012 Boise State University 26

The future: Treasure Valley population might grow to about 1 million in 2040 Growth will probably continue to expand to west but consumer preferences are changing and favor urban, smaller, bike-able, walkable and wild amenities The question is who is moving and why? 2012 Boise State University 27

Growth only tells part of the story Colorado, between 2009 and 2013, 478 people moved from Colorado to Idaho 600 400 200 0 <20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 >60-200 -400-600 2012 Boise State University 28

But 478 hides the dynamics: flow between Idaho and Colorado:11,456 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0-500 <20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 >60 IN OUT NET -1000-1500 -2000-2500 2012 Boise State University 29

Arizona Colorado Montana Nevada Oregon Utah Washington States with a big exchange: 2012 Boise State University 30

California is a different story: 10000 8000 6000 4000 IN OUT NET 2000 0 <20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 >60-2000 2012 Boise State University 31

Mobility and migration (2009-2013): 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 Mobility Net migration 20,000 - (20,000) <20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 >60 2012 Boise State University 32

Change and age: Idaho loses young people (<30) to Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Dakota, Oregon, Utah, Washington and Wyoming. With the exception of North Dakota, there is a positive influx of people 30 and older from every state. We know nothing about people that are leaving or entering. 2012 Boise State University 33

Imagine in a period of 4 years: In an area with 600,000 original residents, you move out about 100,000. Now you add about 130,000 new residents from other states. In the meanwhile, some of your original residents pass away. Fortunately, some new original residents are born. 2012 Boise State University 34

The big question is what do we really know about the future demand for water if there is so much change in the population? And the change is happening rapidly And we know close to nothing about the real changes 2012 Boise State University 35