Inter-relation between Information Society and egovernment developments in the New Member States By: C. Centeno, M. Bogdanowicz, C. Pascu, J-C. Burgelman, AF. Bianchi IPTS, DG JRC, European Commission Presented by AF. Bianchi egov days 05 Budapest, 17-18 March 2005 egov days 05 17/3/2005 P 1
Structure of the presentation 1. Introduction 2. Most relevant factors in IS developments in NMS and CCs 3. Current status of IS development in NMS and CC 4. Future challenges for the Enlarged EU 5. IS and egovernment development egov days 05 17/3/2005 P 2
The Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, IPTS Part of the DG JRC of the EC: 7 Institutes across Europe IPTS mission: to provide scientific grounded, prospective technoeconomic analysis in support of European policies and decisionmaking egov days 05 17/3/2005 P 3
Key Research Questions in the ENL / ICT research area What IS policies are needed for the NMS and CCs, at European and national level, to meet the Lisbon objectives of a knowledge-based society of growth, cohesion, sustainability, by 2010? What is the current status of the IS developments in NMS and CCs? Which have been the most relevant factors that have influenced IS trajectories in NMS and CCs during the past decade? Which are the emerging challenges? Which role can be plaid by egovernment in the future IS development scenarios? egov days 05 17/3/2005 P 4
Previous research results 2002: IST development potentials in the CC13: Issues are political and financial, not technological Multiple but dispersed set of IS initiatives A highly qualified ICT workforce is available, but lack of managerial skills On average, gap on all access indicators as compared to EU15 Risk of a complex Digital Divide (with EU15 and among ACCs): urban/rural, inter-regional, demographic, ICT illiteracy, etc. Policy dilemma: business as usual vs. Marshall plan 2003: Contextual factors having strongly impacted IS developments in EU15 egov days 05 17/3/2005 P 5
The New Entrants study, the approach Contextual factors EU15 Clusters Researched topics Technological change in economic sectors ICT industry Public and private finances & Financial tools Economic factors 1. National and regional economy 2. Structural economical changes 3. Place & role of IST applications in the economy Holistic and committed IS policy Co-opetition frameworks EU policies ICT skills, info-culture, IS awareness Creative use of specific contexts Political factors Societal & Cultural Factors 4. National & Regional IS policies 5. Institutional capabilities and Regulatory background 6. Educational trends 7. Demographic trends 8. Cultural and societal trends egov days 05 17/3/2005 P 6
Lessons from the past: ICT production Does not pre-determine ICT use (i.e. DK, IRL) Specific clusters of ICT production can be developed, which can have a relevant impact on economic growth (IRL, FIN, HU, CZ) Competitive challenges are increasing (globalisation, cost competition, first movers, big domestic markets) And continued geographical relocation expected in and out of the EU (Russia, Asia) Thus, niche markets seem to be where opportunities are laying Different models exist (national actors, multinational R&D centres, etc) Expected developments: Even more differentiation between countries is expected, and will continue to be context-dependent At EU level, geographical re-location expected Globalization effects have started and are expected to continue egov days 05 17/3/2005 P 7
Lessons from the past: ICT use ICT use is changing our everyday life: effective use? The use of ICT by the economic sectors has a relevant impact on productivity and thus, on economic growth ICT is adding complexity to the growing social divides between countries, regions and categories of citizens There are significant differences between countries and regions, however not necessarily linked to GDP/capita Countries and regions lagging behind are expected to converge, but probably not fast enough to reach Lisbon objectives by 2010 Expected developments: ICT usage is expected to converge towards EU average, but also some lags expected egov days 05 17/3/2005 P 8
Lessons from the past: Policy orientations A well focused and long term policy effort is needed General policies are key for an Information Society project Policies for ICT production development are of sectorial type Specific policies for ICT use should be linked to General policies Public services and egovernment applications can be a driver for development and diffusion, and stimulus to demand Thus, holistic and sectorial egov days 05 17/3/2005 P 9
Major factors influencing IS developments in the NMS and CCs of the EU Economic Political Socio- Cultural Growth, Macro Economic Stability & Public Finances Economic structural changes and the role of ICT The role of FDI & other financing tools Corporate Sector and ICT industry Committed and co-opetitive IS policies Privatisation, Regulation and their related institutional settings EU coordination, benchmarking and policies The Changing Consumption patterns Literacy, Capabilities, Skills, Education Essential intangible assets egov days 05 17/3/2005 P 10
Structural indicators (extract): ICT usage indicators: ICT production indicators: Current status of IS developments Selection of indicators 1. GDP per capita 2. Labour productivity 3. Employment rate 4. Spending on Human Resources 5. R&D Expenditures 6. Access path 7. Number of PCs per 100 of population 8. Number of Internet users 9. Relative share of households online 10. Share of broadband access 11. Number of Internet hosts per 100 of population 12. Internet access prices 13. Index of Digital Divide 14. ICT spending (% GDP, per capita) 15. ICT sector share in % GDP 16. ICT exports share in total exports 17. Trade balance in ICT 18. ICT s share in employment egov days 05 17/3/2005 P 11
IS development still has a long way to go 80.00% 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% EL LT PL HU SK CY CZ MT IE ES PT BE LU SI LV FR EE AT IT FI DE UK DK NL SE European Union Internet World Stats, Sep 2004 http://www.internetworldstats.com Sources: Nielsen//NetRatings, ITU, local NICs egov days 05 17/3/2005 P 12
Divide between Countries: Internet users as % of total adult population > 60 > 50 > 40 > 30 > 20 > 10 Data: SIBIS egov days 05 17/3/2005 P 13 Source: T. Huesing, SIBIS 2003 - Presented at the Krynica Economic Forum, 2004
Divide BETWEEN Countries: Mobile phone users as % of total adult population > 75 > 60 > 50 > 40 > 30 > 20 Data: SIBIS egov days 05 17/3/2005 P 14 Source: T. Huesing, SIBIS 2003 - Presented at the Krynica Economic Forum, 2004
18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 egov days 05 17/3/2005 P 15 PIAP use and disadvantaged groups Total Unemployed Low income Low education Total Unemployed Low income Low education Total Unemployed Low income Low education Total Unemployed Low income Low education Total Unemployed Low income Low education Total Unemployed Low income Low education Total Unemployed Low income Low education Total Unemployed Low income Low education Total Unemployed Low income Low education Total Unemployed Low income Low education Public Internet Access Places BG CZ EE HU LV LT PL RO SK SI Use of Public Internet access places Source: T. Huesing, SIBIS 2003 - Presented at the Krynica Economic Forum, 2004
Emerging trends Growth, Macro Economic Stability & Public Finances Economic structural changes and the role of ICT The role of FDI & other financing tools Corporate Sector and ICT industry Committed and co-opetitive IS policies Privatisation, Regulation and their related institutional settings EU coordination, benchmarking and policies The Changing Consumption patterns Literacy, Capabilities, Skills, Education Essential intangible assets Globalisation Demography Social disparities egov days 05 17/3/2005 P 16
Three future challenges for IS developments in the Enlarged European Union 1. Continuously increasing global competition > ICT as a tool for increased competitiveness and growth 2. Growth / Demographic squeeze > transitions in Education 3. Increasing regional social divides/disparities > disconnecting digital and social divides Slide egov 17 days 05 17/3/2005 P 17
Globalisation Beyond the Solow Paradox: the productive ICT use Some aspects of the issues ahead: The Information Society is made a fact in Europe: growing ICT use in industry and services but How do we manage and boost innovation systems for processes and products? How do we identify the national and european most promising sectors? egov days 05 17/3/2005 P 18
Demography Beyond the Demography/Education squeeze issue: Transition times Some aspects of the issues ahead:: Dramatic High economic changes growth in working is the hope age demography Changing labour demand is expectable Too Negative slow trends progression in working educational age demography levels Insufficient Educational outputs How do we manage Educational transitions, demographic decline and immigration? egov days 05 17/3/2005 P 19
Social disparities Beyond the Innovation paradox Some aspects of the issues ahead: Economic growth vs social divides Digital divide: More than an access issue Matches and mismatches of social and digital divides How do we address the vicious circle for groups at risk? egov days 05 17/3/2005 P 20
Which model for a sustainable society: demography Map EU 10 Index of age group 15-24 in 2020 (Index 100 = 2000) TR NO CH RO BG EU25 LU DK NL UK CY FR SE DE BE AT FI IE PT IT MT GR ES LT HU SK SI PL CZ LV EE EU15 a IS Source: For EU15 Member States, at national level: Eurostat 2000 Demographic Projections (Baseline scenario). For all regional projections, Geolabour Projection. For all non-eu15 countries at national level, UN World Population prospects, 2002 Revision (Medium Variant). Computing by GeoLabour Projection. RU 90,0 AT 89,7 BE 91,7 CY 97,5 CZ 57,5 DE 93,6 DK 113,0 EE 47,5 ES 68,9 FI 89,6 FR 96,0 GR 76,2 HU 61,4 67,1-80 IE 85,2 80,1-90 IT 80,6 LT 66,3 LU 127,1 LV 50,4 < 50 50,1-67 83,7 EU15 90,1-97,5 NO 97,6-102,5 102,6-110 110,1-120 > 120 (RU) BY UA MT 79,7 NL 111,6 PL 58,0 PT 83,6 SE 94,6 SI 59,4 SK 61,0 UK 101,0 EU25 83,7 RO 51,1 BG 61,8 CH 82,8 NO 107,8 GeoLabour Projection MD All at NUTS2 level except DE3, DEB, DED, DEE, UKI, UKM. UKK3 and UKK4" are given the average value of UKK. CY, DK, EE, IE, LV, LT, LU, MT, SI at national level. CH HR BA YU FYROM AL 47.5 egov days 05 21 4017/3/2005 60 P80 90,0 100 120 140 Cyprus Malta 100 Km 25 500 Km Km TR
Which model for Cohesion? Income level and distribution across NMS/EU15 + better EU15 CY SI worse EE LV LT MT PL EU9 CZ HU Income level uneven Income distribution even - egov days 05 17/3/2005 P 22 Source: T.Huesing, EMPIRICA, Sept 2004
Matches and mismatches of social and digital divides 100 Internet Access at Home (% tot.pop.) egov days 05 17/3/2005 P 23 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 BG RO EE SI CZ PT EL LT PL HU LV SK FI ES DE IT BE FR NL SE DK UK 0 50 100 150 200 250 AT GDP/head (PPS, 2002, EU25=100) Source: T. Huesing, SIBIS 2003 - Presented at the Krynica Economic Forum, 2004 IE LU
Potential policy actions General policy Providing balanced and sustainable economic growth Public finance reform and restructuring of fiscal expenditures Improving general business condition Increasing and shifting the composition of public R&D Providing better regulation to stimulate competition in the telco Promoting competition to foster competitiveness through innovation Continue reforms in the education system at basic and tertiary level etc. Information Society policy Prioritising spending in IS Shifting the focus to users, the regional and the local Raising awareness, in particular business managers Developing e-public services Improving ICT literacy Reducing the digital divide: PIAPs etc. egov days 05 17/3/2005 P 24 Industrial policy related to the ICT sector Improving specific business conditions Supporting private ICT R&D Supporting further inflow of FDI Increasing ICT human capital etc.
IS and egovernment developments: IS influence on egov Access and use capabilities are prerequisite for egov services: Public Access Points Low Internet but high mobile penetration to be used as additional channel for egov Gaps and digital divides within the countries (people s age and capabilities, organisations, regions) add complexity and have to be faced IS increases the pressure for higher govern efficiency and effective governance egov days 05 17/3/2005 P 25
IS and egovernment developments: egov influence on IS On the supply side: with its demand, stimulates ICT development with its choices, guides the technol development with its services, improves the business context On the demand side: stimulates the use of citizen, public, private sector aggregates and qualifies demand On the social/governance side provides even access improves participation egov days 05 17/3/2005 P 26
Why focusing on Public Services? Governments spend = 45% of EU s GDP Public services concern all citizens Modern public services contribute to define the business sphere Post 11/9 security thinking recognizes key role for government how innovative Public Services can reconcile security with privacy concerns Governments have a strong potential role on stimulating demand and can pull innovation (to overcome slowdown in the e-paradigm?) Consensus on e-government as a key application contributing to achieve Lisbon objectives (1)(2) (1) FISTERA project, http://fistera.jrc.es (2) High Level Group Report, chaired by Wim Kok, Nov 2004 egov days 05 17/3/2005 P 27
Action areas of consensus in the EU There is consensus in Europe about the most important application areas to reach Lisbon competitiveness, wealth and job creation, and social cohesion objectives FISTERA Project http://fistera.jrc.es egov days 05 17/3/2005 P 28
Action areas of consensus in the EU Individuals Security CZ Learning AT DE HU SE UK Entertainment CZ DE FR HU SE UK Health AT,CZ,FR,DE, HU,SE,UK Work AT HU SE UK ecommerce ES SE UK Business Domotics AT Government SE Transport AT,CZ,HU, SE,UK Agriculture CZ HU Public egov days 05 17/3/2005 P 29
Action areas of consensus in Europe FISTERA Delphi (>500 experts) How can IST serve EU-Lisbon goals? Top 5 application areas for improving job creation: Education and learning, Security, Leisure and recreation, Health, Transport Top 5 application areas for improving wealth creation: Work organisation, Management, Education and learning, Government, Transport Top 5 application areas for improving competitiveness: Work organisation, Education and learning, Management, Government, Cultural diversity egov days 05 17/3/2005 P 30
First 20-30 years INSTALLATION PERIOD ESTABLISHMENT OF NEW PARADIGM: creative destruction of the old one IS development still has a long way to go (C. Perez, Sep 2004) DECLINE of the old economy EMERGENCE of the new followed by BIG FINANCIAL BUBBLE 1 TURNING POINT 2 3 INSTABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY Post bubble recession (sometimes depression) Instability Second 20-30 years DEPLOYMENT PERIOD FLOURISHING OF FULL POTENTIAL of the triumphant paradigm Golden Age of Growth Flourishing of the whole economy 1971 egov days 05 17/3/2005 P 31 2000 We are here, A TIME TO ACT Time
And looking for the European model: a common research agenda for the decade 1. Lisbon revisited agenda? 2. Quality of Life agenda? 3. Individual satisfaction agenda?.the role of ICT, egov, public services? egov days 05 17/3/2005 P 32
Opportunities for collaboration in socio-economic research: IPTS workplan in 2005 ICT Unit FISTE action: 1. The global hotspots 2. Assessing Factors and Impacts of IS developments in NMS 3. Impacts of egovernment initiatives in Europe. 4. New eservices: EGovernmenet and EHealth in NMS 5. Internationalisation of ICT activities: R&D, outsourcing and competitiveness egov days 05 17/3/2005 P 33
Thank you Contact: Anna-Flavia.Bianchi@cec.eu.int Clara.Centeno@cec.eu.int Website: http://fiste.jrc.es/ egov days 05 17/3/2005 P 34