Sally Gretton, Head of Area (Yorkshire and Humber/North East), at Skills for Care

Acknowledgements The authors Sarah Davison and Gary Polzin are grateful to many people who have contributed to this report. Particular thanks are due to: all the employers who have completed NMDS-SC data, as without their efforts estimates of this detail and accuracy would not be possible Will Fenton for leading on the production of the methodologies for creating the workforce projections colleagues from the Workforce Intelligence team who support and maintain the NMDS-SC Skills for Care colleagues, especially Elizabeth Edgar, Dave Griffiths and Roy Price, who have contributed to the content and the production of this report. Feedback on any aspect of the report will be very welcome and will help to improve future editions. Please contact Skills for Care s analysis team analysis@skillsforcare.org.uk. The adult social care sector and workforce in Yorkshire and Humber, 2016 Published by Skills for Care, West Gate, 6 Grace Street, Leeds, LS1 2RP www.skillsforcare.org.uk Skills for Care 2016 Copies of this work may be made for non-commercial distribution to aid social care workforce development. Any other copying requires the permission of Skills for Care. Skills for Care is the employer-led strategic body for workforce development in social care for adults in England. This work was researched and complied by Skills for Care s data analysis team. Bibliographical reference data for Harvard-style author/data referencing system: Short: Skills for Care [or SfC] 2016 Long: Skills for Care, The adult social care sector and workforce in Yorkshire and Humber, 2016 (Leeds, 2016). Available at www.skillsforcare.org.uk/regionalreports

Foreword The following report provides an overview of adult social care services and their workforce in the Yorkshire and Humber area in 2016, including the size and structure of this part of the sector and detailed workforce information. The information in the report is mostly derived from the National Minimum Data Set for Social Care (NMDS-SC). The need for care and support continues to grow, creating more demand to increase the size, knowledge and skills of the adult social care workforce. As the social care landscape changes to one where social care and health services integrate to fit closer to the needs of the person involved, we need to have a clear picture of the workforce s capacity and capability to deliver services in the future. Commissioners from both local authorities and Clinical Commissioning Groups use this information to help define and shape the adult social care market. And as Sustainable and Transformation plans (STP s) are produced, information about the sector must play an equal part to that of the Health Service and Skills for Care are producing information to support this planning process. We know that services will be required to ensure that people are able to stay at home for as long as possible. We also know that adult social care services support the NHS by allowing people to be discharged home when appropriate to them. Effective workforce planning is based on the ability to provide accurate information about the workforce, enabling managers to gauge when, and where, to recruit staff for the future. NMDS-SC reports, such as this one, provide this baseline intelligence. We see that in Yorkshire and Humber we have turnover rates of 28% and vacancy rates of 5.3%, and we understand that domiciliary care service providers are experiencing major problems in retaining staff with the right values and behaviours. And pressures on resourcing this delivery are compounding the problem. For information about how Skills for Care can support you in areas such as leadership, values and behaviours recruitment and retention, workforce planning and skills development at all levels, please see our website www.skillsforcare.org.uk. If you would like bespoke workforce information to answer any specific questions you have about the adult social care workforce please do get in touch with your locality manager who will be happy to help. Sally Gretton, Head of Area (Yorkshire and Humber/North East), at Skills for Care Sally.Gretton@skillsforcare.org.uk

Summary of key findings about the state of the adult social care sector and workforce in the Yorkshire and Humber region Size and structure of the workforce as at 2015/16 An estimated 1,600 organisations with 3,800 establishments/care providing locations were involved in providing or organising adult social care. The number of adult social care jobs in Yorkshire and Humber was estimated at 155,000. This has increased by an estimated 7% (10,000 jobs) since 2012/13. Approximately 145,000 people worked in adult social care in Yorkshire and Humber; around 6% of the economically active population. As at 2015/16 the adult social care sector was estimated to contribute 40.4 billion per annum to the English economy, and 3.9 billion in the Yorkshire and Humber region. If the adult social care workforce grows proportionally to the projected number of people aged 65 and over in the population then the number of adult social care jobs will increase by 16% (25,000 jobs) to 180,000 jobs by 2025. Adult social care workforce information as at 2015/16 The estimated starter rate was 34.1%, so just over a third of all workers were new to their roles in the previous 12 months. The adult social care sector has an experienced core of workers. Workers had, on average, eight years of experience in the sector and five years in their current role. The estimated turnover rate was 28%; this means around 34,000 leavers each year. Turnover rates have increased steadily, by 6.8%, between 2012/13 and 2015/16. The vacancy rate was estimated at 5.3%; an estimated 6,000 adult social care vacancies at any one time. Around a fifth (19%) of the workforce were on zero-hours contracts in 2015/16; this has remained relatively stable, increasing by 1% since 2012/13. The average worker was 43 years old and a fifth of workers were over 55 years old. The majority (92%) of the adult social care workforce were British, 3% had an EU nationality and 5% a non-eu nationality. The average annual pay 1 of a registered manager was 28,000, occupational therapist annual pay was 25,400, registered nurse annual pay was 24,200 and social worker annual pay was 31,400. The senior care worker average hourly rate 1 was 7.99 and the care worker average hourly rate was 7.26. 81% of senior care workers and 47% of care workers were qualified at level 2 or above. 1 The pay data used in this report predates the mandatory National Living Wage introduced in April 2016

Contents 1. Introduction 2. Size and structure 2.1 Population of the region 2.2 Number of adult social care organisations (enterprises) 2.3 Number of adult social care establishments (local units of employment) 2.4 Number of adult social care jobs 2.5 Direct payment recipients 2.6 Number of full-time equivalent jobs and people 2.7 Job trends 3. Employment overview 3.1 Employment status 3.2 Full/part-time status 3.3 Zero-hours contracts 3.4 Zero-hours contract trends 4. Recruitment and retention 4.1 Starters in the past 12 months 4.2 Source of recruitment 4.3 Experience of the adult social care workforce 4.4 Leavers and staff turnover rates 4.5 Sickness rates 4.6 Vacancy rates 5. Workforce demographics 5.1 Gender 5.2 Age 5.3 Ethnicity 5.4 Nationality 5.5 Country of birth 6. Pay, qualifications and training 6.1 Annual pay 6.2 Hourly pay 6.3 Care Certificate 6.4 Qualifications held 6.5 Training 6.6 Skills 7. Workforce forecasts 8. Further resources 3 7 8 9 9 10 13 13 14 15 16 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 27 27 29 30 31 33 33 35 37 38 40 42 43 44 45 47 51

Introduction Introduction 01

01 4 This report provides an overview of the adult social care sector and workforce in the Yorkshire and Humber region as at 2015/16 2 ; including the size and structure of this part of the sector and detailed workforce information. Most of the information in this report is derived from the National Minimum Data Set for Social Care (NMDS-SC). Due to the high quality and coverage of adult social care information held by the NMDS-SC the estimates within this report are the most detailed and reliable to date. Planners, commissioners and employers should be confident about using the information contained in this report. 1.1 About Skills for Care Skills for Care helps create a better-led, skilled and valued adult social care workforce. We provide practical tools and support to help adult social care organisations in England recruit, develop and lead their workforce. We work with employers and related services to ensure dignity and respect are at the heart of service delivery. Please see our website for more information about Skills for Care www.skillsforcare.org.uk 1.2 About the NMDS-SC The National Minimum Data Set for Social Care (NMDS-SC) is an online workforce data collection system for the social care sector. It is the leading source of robust workforce intelligence for adult social care. The NMDS-SC is managed by Skills for Care on behalf of the Department of Health and has been collecting information about social care providers and their staff since 2006. The NMDS-SC collects information on the size and structure of the whole adult social care sector including: types of care services that are provided how much care provision there is a detailed picture of the workforce, including retention, demographics, pay rates and qualifications. Social care employers/providers use the NMDS-SC to help ensure their information better supports business and workforce planning. They register, maintain and access their business information through their online accounts, which they can also use to track their workforce information with personalised reports and dashboards. For more information about the NMDS-SC please visit www.nmds-sc-online.org.uk. 2 Independent sector information is derived from the NMDS-SC as at March 2016, local authority information was correct as at September 2015.

01 5 Introduction 1.3 Economic contribution and wage bill As at 2015/16 the adult social care sector was estimated to contribute 40.4 billion per annum to the English economy, and 3.9 billion in Yorkshire and Humber. The total wage bill of the sector, calculated using NMDS-SC information, accounted for almost half of this amount, at 18.6 billion in England and 1.81 billion in the Yorkshire and Humber. Since 2012/2013 the wage bill had increased in the Yorkshire and Humber, up 11% from 1.63 billion. Please see Table 1 for wage bill trends between 2012/13 and 2015/16. Table 1: Adult social care wage bill trends, 2012/13-2015/16 England Yorkshire and Humber Wage bill Percentage increase from 2012/13 Wage bill Percentage increase from 2012/13 2012/13 16.9 billion 1.63 billion 2013/14 17.4 billion 3% 1.70 billion 4% 2014/15 17.9 billion 6% 1.76 billion 8% 2015/16 18.6 billion 10% 1.81 billion 11% The remaining proportion of the economic contribution included private sector profits, indirect effects (adult social care s supply chain) and induced effects (money spent by people working in adult social care). There was not enough information available to produce a trend for these elements. 1.4 NMDS-SC coverage of the adult social care sector In England there were an estimated 1.55 million jobs in the adult social care sector including 1.34 million jobs within statutory local authority and independent sector employers. Approximately half of the workforce were recorded in the NMDS-SC. In Yorkshire and Humber 59% of the 130,000 jobs within statutory local authority and independent sector employers were recorded in the NMDS-SC. This coverage varies by care service, job role and geographical area. The NMDS-SC has 100% coverage of statutory local authorities. Statutory local authorities For the past 4 years all 152 local authorities in England have been informed by NHS Digital (formally the Health and Social Care Information Centre) that they are expected to complete an NMDS-SC return. In 2015, for the 4th year in a row, all 152 local authorities in England met the criteria of a full NMDS-SC return. CQC regulated services Skills for Care estimates that there were 40,100 care establishments/employers providing or organising adult social care in England in 2015, around 25,400 of these services were CQC regulated (3,800 establishments and 2,400 regulated establishments within Yorkshire and Humber). At the end of March 2016 the NMDS-SC had 56% coverage of all CQC regulated social care establishments (14,100 out of 25,400). Coverage in Yorkshire and Humber was 59%, (1,425 out of 2,400). A sample of this size provides a solid basis for creating reliable and precise analyses about the regulated adult social care workforce at both a national and local level.

01 6 All data in the NMDS-SC has been updated or confirmed to be up to date within the last two years and 90% of employers updated their data in the previous 12 months. Every effort is made to ensure that information derived from the NMDS-SC is reliable. All NMDS- SC data has been through rigorous data quality checks. 1.5 Methodology used to estimate characteristics of the adult social care sector This report uses data collected by the NMDS-SC to create workforce models that, in turn, allow for estimates of the whole adult social care workforce to be produced. For a full methodology of how Skills for Care model this data please see Appendix 1 of the Size and Structure of the Adult Social Care Sector and Workforce in England 2016 report 3. A simplified explanation of how the information is produced is that Skills for Care uses NMDS-SC data to make estimates of workforce characteristics (e.g. demographics, pay rates, employment statuses) for each geographical area, service type, employer type and job role combination that we report by. These estimates are then weighted according to NMDS-SC s coverage/completeness of the sector in each of the above areas. For example, an area with 50% coverage would use more weighted data in the final analysis than an area with 90% coverage. Using this methodology allows for the analysis to be representative of all adult social care workers even if the NMDS-SC has uneven levels of data coverage. Independent sector information is derived from the NMDS-SC as at March 2016, local authority information is correct as at September 2015. Each chapter of this report concludes with a section that contains links to further information and related resources. Additional data, including two page summaries for each local authority area, and a statistical appendix can be found on the Skills for Care website www.skillsforcare.org.uk/regionalreports. 1.6 Terminology used in this report Adult social care and terminology used to describe it, continues to change. We have tried to maintain a degree of consistency and comparability with previous reports. So we have: Used the term domiciliary care to describe home care, to avoid any confusion or inadvertent word reversal with care home Used the term statutory local authority to refer to councils with social services responsibilities, and local authority area when talking about the geographical area and all adult social care within it The independent sector is the sum of the private and the voluntary (third) sectors. For a description of services and job roles within groups please see the regional statistical appendix in Excel 4 or The State of the Adult Social Care Sector and Workforce in England, 2016 report 4 section 1.6. 3 www.skillsforcare.org.uk/sizeandstructure 4 www.skillsforcare.org.uk/stateof

Size and structure Size and structure 02

02 8 Overview of the size and structure of the Yorkshire and Humber region as at 2015/16 Yorkshire and Humber had a total population of 5.3 million and an economically active population of 2.6 million people. The number of adult social care jobs in Yorkshire and Humber was estimated at 155,000. This had increased by an estimated 7% (10,000 jobs) since 2012/13. The 155,000 jobs as at 2015 included an estimated 15,000 jobs for direct payments recipients Approximately 145,000 people worked in adult social care in Yorkshire and Humber; around 6% of the economically active population. An estimated 1,600 organisations with 3,800 establishments were involved in providing or organising adult social care in Yorkshire and Humber. 2. Size and structure of the sector and workforce This chapter summarises regional level data of the information presented in the Size and structure of the adult social care sector and workforce in England report, published by Skills for Care in July 2016. For more detail please see the report, www.skillsforcare.org.uk/sizeandstructure. 2.1 The Yorkshire and Humber population The population of Yorkshire and Humber, according to the Census 2011 5 was 5.3 million; this was 10% of the population of England, at 53 million. According to NOMIS 2016 6, Yorkshire and Humber had an economically active population of 2.6 million people; this was 10% of the economically active population of England, at 27.1 million people. Chart 1 shows the estimated population projections of people aged 65 and over in the region and is taken from the Projecting Older People Population Information System (POPPI) 7. POPPI shows that the total number of people aged 65 and over is projected to increase by 20% between 2015 and 2025 from 976,800 to 1,167,900 (21% for England as a whole). The number of people aged 18-64 with a learning disability, mental health problem or physical disability is also predicted to increase by 2025 7. For more information about future projections of the adult social care workforce please see chapter 7. Chart 1: Estimated projections of people aged 65 & over in Yorkshire and Humber Source: Projecting Older People Information System (POPPI) 400,000 People aged: % change 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 2015 2016 2018 2020 2025 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90 & over 0% 25% 15% 38% 35% 56% 5 http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/census/2011 6 https://www.nomisweb.co.uk 7 www.poppi.org.uk and www.pansi.org.uk (Projecting Adult Needs and Service Information)

02 9 2.2 Number of adult social care organisations (enterprises) The definition of organisations ranges from large national employers, large charities and councils with social services responsibilities (statutory local authorities) to small independent care homes. A large company running multiple care homes would count once in these figures. This estimate does not include individuals employing their own care and support staff. Size and structure There were an estimated 19,300 organisations involved in providing/organising adult social care in England, 8% (1,600) of which were in the Yorkshire and Humber, as at 2015. Chart 2: Estimated number of adult social care organisations in England by region Source: The size and structure of the adult social care sector and workforce in England, 2016 Eastern (2,000) East Midlands (1,500) London (3,800) North East (700) North West (2,200) South East (3,300) South West (2,200) West Midlands (1,900) Yorkshire and Humber (1,600) Chart 3 shows that 58% of adult social care organisations in the Yorkshire and Humber were providing non-residential services and 42% were providing residential services. Chart 3: Estimated proportion of adult social care organisations by service type Source: Skills for Care estimates based on ONS IDBR data, 2015 England Yorkshire and Humber 4% 10% 8% 20% Just over a third (37%) of adult social care organisations employed less than five workers, with the majority (85%) employing fewer than 50 workers. Large organisations (250+ employees) made up just 2% of the total but employed 44% of the total adult social care workforce as at 2015. 2.3 Number of adult social care establishments (local units of employment) The definition of establishments used in this section includes all local units of employment as opposed to only whole organisations that were counted in section 2.2. Each individual 11% 11% 10% 8% 17% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Residential, 41% Residential, 42% Non-residential, 59% Non-residential, 58% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

02 10 care home within a large care providing organisation has been counted in this section as opposed to just the care providing organisation as a whole. There were an estimated 40,100 establishments involved in providing/organising adult social care in England, 9% (3,800) of which were in the Yorkshire and Humber, as at 2015. Chart 4: Estimated number of adult social care establishments in England by region Source: The size and structure of the adult social care sector and workforce in England, 2016 Eastern (4,200) East Midlands (3,500) London (5,900) North East (2,100) North West (5,100) South East (6,800) South West (4,600) West Midlands (4,100) Yorkshire and Humber (3,800) Chart 5 shows that 52% of adult social care establishments in Yorkshire and Humber were providing residential services and 48% were providing non-residential services. Chart 5: Estimated proportion of adult social care establishments by service type Source: Skills for Care estimates based on ONS IDBR data England Yorkshire and Humber 2.4 Number of adult social care jobs 5% 10% 9% 11% 10% 9% 13% 15% 17% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Residential, 51% Residential, 52% Non-residential, 49% Non-residential, 48% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% There were an estimated 1.55 million jobs in the adult social care sector, 10% (155,000) of which were in Yorkshire and Humber. Table 2: Estimated number of adult social care jobs by job role group, 2015 Job role group England Yorkshire and Humber Total jobs % of jobs Total jobs % of jobs Total 1,550,000 155,000 Managerial 115,000 7% 11,000 7% Regulated professional 90,000 6% 9,000 6% Direct care 1,170,000 75% 117,000 75% Other 180,000 12% 18,000 12%

02 11 Although regulated professional roles make-up a relatively small proportion of the total adult social care workforce they are vital in terms of the success of the social care system and also in terms of integrated health and social care planning and delivery. Registered nurses As at 2015 there were an estimated 4,300 registered nurse jobs in the adult social care sector in the Yorkshire and Humber region (47,000 in England). The vast majority of these jobs were in care homes with nursing in the independent sector. This figure does not include registered nurse jobs in the NHS. Size and structure Occupational therapists There were an estimated 2,000 occupational therapist jobs in the adult social care sector in Yorkshire and Humber as at 2015 (20,000 in England). These estimates include occupational therapist jobs in the NHS as these roles are considered to be adult social care related and have therefore been included as part of the adult social care workforce report (1,700 in Yorkshire and Humber). The majority (200) of the remaining occupational therapist jobs were employed by local authorities. Social workers As at 2015 there were an estimated 2,100 social workers in the Yorkshire and Humber region and 18,500 social workers in the whole adult social care sector. The majority of these jobs (83%) were within local authorities and around 4% were in the independent sector. Data from NHS Digital (formally the Health and Social Care Information Centre) shows that, in England, there were around 1,600 social worker jobs in the NHS. As with occupational therapists, these jobs have been included as they are considered to be social care related. Chart 6 overleaf shows a breakdown of the number of jobs in the sector by job role. The size of each rectangle is proportional to the number of jobs for each particular role and the rectangles are shaded according to the job role group each corresponds to ( direct care, managerial, regulated professionals or other). The chart shows that care worker was by far the most common job role in the adult social care sector with an estimated 76,000 roles (800,000 in England) as at 2015. Care workers accounted for almost half (49%) of all jobs in the adult social care sector in Yorkshire and Humber (52% in England). The second most common job role was jobs for direct payment recipients (15,000) followed by ancillary jobs (10,300). The Other category includes 14 job roles that were less common, including roles such as allied health professionals, occupational therapy assistants, activities workers and advice, guidance and advocacy roles. A full list of NMDS-SC job roles and descriptions can be found on the NMDS-SC website. 8 8 https://www.nmds-sc-online.org.uk/help/article.aspx?id=33

02 12 Chart 6: Estimated number of adult social care jobs in Yorkshire and Humber, 2015 15,000 * Others includes 14 job roles where less common

02 13 2.5 Direct payment recipients Please note that the figures in this section should be treated with some caution as, despite advances in this area, there is still a shortage of data about individual employers and their workforce. Size and structure The direct payment recipient market is still relatively new and has continued to evolve over recent years. Increasingly evidence suggests that people in receipt of direct payments are moving away from becoming employers themselves to buying in the services they require. Skills for Care estimate that, in England as at 2015, the proportion of direct payment recipients employing staff was likely to be between 23% and 33% (55,000 to 80,000 employing staff out of 235,000 recipients in total) In the Yorkshire and Humber, the total number of direct payment recipients was 24,200 as at 2015. Skills for Care estimates that 7,000 of these direct payment recipients were employing staff. For those employing staff there were an estimated 15,000 jobs. For more information about direct payment recipients, including trends and methodology details please see www.skillsforcare.org.uk/sizeandstructure. 2.6 Number of full-time equivalent jobs and people in the adult social care sector There were an estimated 1.11 million full-time equivalent jobs in adult social care in England and 110,000 in Yorkshire and Humber. These estimates were created by applying contracted and additional hours data collected by the NMDS-SC to estimates of the total number of jobs presented in section 2.4 ( full-time was classed as 37 hours per week). The estimated number of people working in adult social care does differ from the total number of jobs as people can hold more than one adult social care job. For a methodology of how this calculation is made please see www.skillsforcare.org.uk/sizeandstructure. In England it is estimated that there were 1.43 million people doing 1.55 million jobs, with an estimated 145,000 people doing 155,000 jobs in Yorkshire and Humber. Around 6% of the economically active population (see section 2.1) worked in the adult social care sector in Yorkshire and Humber; approximately 5% in England as a whole. Chart 7: Estimated number of adult social care jobs, full-time equivalent jobs and people in the Yorkshire and Humber Source: The size and structure of the adult social care sector and workforce in England, 2016 Jobs 155,000 Full-time equivalent jobs 110,000 People 145,000 0 40,000 80,000 120,000 160,000

02 14 2.7 Job trends The main changes in the adult social care sector since 2012/13 in the Yorkshire and Humber region were: (1) An increase in the size of the workforce (up 7% between 2012/13 and 2015/16). (2) An increase in independent sector jobs (up 11% or 11,500 jobs). (3) A decrease in local authority jobs (down 24% or 5,000 jobs). (4) Jobs for care homes with nursing remained the same. (5) An increase in the number of jobs in domiciliary care (up 24% or 12,000) Chart 8 shows the growth of adult social care jobs in Yorkshire and Humber since 2012/13. The overall increase in the number of jobs between 2012/13 and 2015/16 was estimated at around 10,000 (a 7% increase); an average growth of 2% per year. Chart 8: Estimated number of adult social care jobs and percentage change in the number of jobs in Yorkshire and Humber, 2012/13 2015/16 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% % change from previous year (left axis) Total ASC jobs (right axis) 146,000 155,000 160,000 151,000 155,000 120,000 80,000 +4% +3% +1% 40,000 0 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2.8 Further information For more detail about the size and structure of the adult social care sector and workforce in England, including a full methodology of how workforce estimates were created please see www.skillsforcare.org.uk/sizeandstructure. For more information and to perform your own analysis of workforce estimates from the NMDS-SC in your area please visit the Skills for Care Open Access NMDS-SC Dashboards at: www.nmds-sc-online.org.uk/reportengine/dashboard.aspx. To support the data that has been published in this report, Skills for Care has produced two statistical appendixes in Excel, one at England level and one at regional level. Each volume consists of tables of analysis contained in this report split by sector, service and job role. There is some additional detail and analysis included in the appendixes that are not included in this report. Please see www.skillsforcare.org.uk/regionalreports for the appendix. For a bespoke analysis of workforce estimates in the adult social care sector; in more detail, in your geographical area please contact analysis@skillsforcare.org.uk.

Employment overview Employment overview 03

03 16 From here on, this report refers to the adult social care sector as those 130,000 jobs working in the statutory local authority sector and the independent sectors only. Jobs for direct payment recipients and those working in the NHS are not included in the workforce estimates from here onwards 9. Overview of employment in the Yorkshire and Humber region, as at 2015/16 The majority (92%) of the workforce were employed on permanent contracts. Over half (51%) of the workforce were employed full-time basis and 40% part-time. Around a fifth (19%) of the workforce were on zero-hours contracts. This was higher for care workers (52%) and registered nurses (49%) in domiciliary care services. The percentage of workers on zero-hours contracts remained relatively stable between 2012/13 and 2015/16, going up by one percentage point over the period 3. Employment overview 3.1 Employment status The majority (92%) of the adult social care workforce in the Yorkshire and Humber were employed on permanent contracts. Managerial staff were most likely to be on permanent contracts and registered nurses had the highest reliance on bank/pool staff. The employment status in the Yorkshire and Humber was similar to that of England as a whole. Table 3: Estimated employment status by selected job roles, Yorkshire and Humber Permanent Temporary Bank or pool Agency Other All job roles 92% 2% 4% 1% 1% Senior management 98% 1% <1% <1% 1% Registered manager 99% 1% <1% <1% <1% Social worker 88% 7% 1% 3% 1% Occupational therapist 93% 3% 2% <1% 2% Registered nurse 85% 2% 12% 1% 1% Senior care worker 97% 1% 1% <1% <1% Care worker 92% 2% 5% 1% <1% Support and outreach 84% 6% 6% 2% 2% Although levels of non-permanent workers were generally low across all job roles, the level of use of zero-hours contracts was high, see section 3.3. 3.2 Full/part-time status Approximately half of the Yorkshire and Humber workforce were employed on a full-time basis (51%), this was the same as the England average. Two fifths (40%) worked parttime and the remaining 9% were neither full nor part-time (workers without set hours). Chart 9 shows that, as with employment status, the full/part-time status varied by job role. The majority of registered managers (92%) and senior managers (89%) worked full-time, as did social workers (71%) and senior care workers (69%). Care workers (making up 9 Detailed workforce information about jobs for direct payment recipients and those working in the NHS were not available and therefore could not be included in Skills for Care estimates by workforce characteristics.

03 17 around half of the workforce) and support and outreach workers had the lowest proportion of full time staff (46% and 45% respectively). Chart 9: Full/part-time status in the Yorkshire and Humber by selected job roles Full-time Part-time Neither 51% 40% 9% 89% 9% 92% 6% All job roles Senior management Registered manager Social worker Occupational therapist Registered nurse Senior care worker Care worker Support and outreach 71% 61% 56% 69% 46% 45% 27% 36% 28% 27% 43% 46% 3% 2% 2% 3% 16% 4% 11% 9% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Employment overview 3.3 Zero-hours contract A zero-hours contract is a contract type where the employer is not obliged to provide any minimum working hours. This contract type could be particularly useful to adult social care employers because it can provide a solution to temporary staff shortages caused by leavers, sickness absence or by changing demand for care and support and therefore staffing level requirements, and is often more cost-effective than agency staff. Care workers had the highest proportion of workers on zero-hours contracts (28%) in the Yorkshire and Humber region and in England (33%), followed by registered nurses (15% in Yorkshire and Humber and 18% in England). Chart 10: Proportion of workers on a zero-hours contract by selected job roles England Yorkshire and Humber All job roles 19% 24% Senior management 4% 2% Registered manager 3% 2% Social worker 3% 2% Occupational therapist 3% 2% Registered nurse 15% 18% Senior care worker 6% 10% Care worker 28% 33% Support and outreach 15% 13% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% As well as variation by job role there was also large variation by care service provided.

03 18 Domiciliary care services had the highest proportion of workers on zero-hours contracts, with 52% of care workers and 49% of registered nurses in Yorkshire and Humber and 58% and 57% respectively in England. Generally residential, day care and community care services made less use of zero hours contracts. A high proportion of workers with neither full/part-time status tended to be employed on zero-hours contract. 3.4 Zero-hours contract trends Table 4 shows that the percentage of staff that were on a zero-hours contracts in the Yorkshire and Humber remained relatively stable (an increase of one percentage point) between 2012/13 and 2015/16. The proportion of all workers on a zero-hours contract in England increased by 3 percentage points over the same period. Although no precise trend is available, evidence from the NMDS-SC suggests that the proportion of workers on zero-hours contracts was substantially lower before 2012. Also, despite the proportion of workers on zero-hours contracts reducing by 2 percentage points between 2014/15 and 2015/16, it is too early to confidently state that the rate is actually going down. When 2016/17 data becomes available it should become clearer whether or not this is a real trend. Table 4: Zero-hours contract trends by selected job roles, 2012/13 to 2015/16, Change between 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2012/13 and 2015/16 (percentage points) All job roles 18% 20% 21% 19% 1% Senior management 2% 3% 2% 2% 0% Registered manager 2% 2% 1% 2% 0% Social worker 2% 3% 2% 2% 0% Occupational therapist 2% 3% 2% 2% 0% Registered nurse 14% 16% 16% 15% 1% Senior care worker 7% 6% 5% 6% -1% Care worker 26% 30% 30% 28% 2% Support and outreach 14% 12% 13% 13% -1% 3.5 Further information For more information and to perform your own analysis of employment information from the NMDS-SC in your area please visit the Skills for Care Open Access NMDS-SC Dashboards at: www.nmds-sc-online.org.uk/reportengine/dashboard.aspx. To support the data that has been published in this report, Skills for Care has produced two statistical appendixes in Excel, one at England level and one at regional level. Please see http://www.skillsforcare.org.uk/stateof for the appendix. For a bespoke analysis of employment information from the NMDS-SC; in more detail, in your geographical area or to answer any specific questions you have about the adult social care workforce please contact analysis@skillsforcare.org.uk.

Recruitment and retention Recruitment and retention 04

04 20 Overview of recruitment and retention in Yorkshire and Humber, as at 2015/16 Skills for Care estimates that the starters rate in the past 12 months was 34.1%. Of new starters, two thirds were recruited from within the adult social care sector, therefore the sector retains their skills and experience. The adult social care sector has an experienced core of workers. Workers had, on average, eight years of experience in the sector and five years in their current role. Skills for Care estimates that the staff turnover rate of directly employed staff working in the adult social care sector was 28%. This was approximately 34,000 leavers a year. Turnover rates have increased steadily, by 6.8 percentage points, between 2012/13 and 2015/16. Skills for Care estimates that 5.3% of roles in sector were vacant. This means there were approximately 6,000 vacancies at any one time. An average of 6 sickness days means a total of approximately 785,000 days lost to sickness each year in the region. 4. Recruitment and retention It is vital that adult social care can attract and retain staff with the right skills, values and behaviours, to raise and deliver quality and standards for people using social care services. The high level of movement within the current workforce may have an impact on service delivery and continuity of care. 4.1 Starters in the past 12 months The information below refers to directly employed staff (permanent and temporary staff). Skills for Care estimates that the starters rate in the past 12 months was 34.1% (35% in England). This was approximately 42,000 new starters each year in the Yorkshire and Humber region and 434,000 in England. Chart 11: Starters rate of direct employer workers, by selected job role All job roles 34.1% Senior management 17.4% Social worker 18.0% Occupational therapist 20.8% Registered nurse 47.8% Senior care worker 21.1% Care worker 39.8% Support and outreach 28.2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% It should be noted that the starters rate shows people that are new to their role, this could be a mixture of those new to the adult social care sector and churn within the adult social care sector, i.e. people moving from different employers or within the same organisations.

04 21 4.1.1 Starters rate trends The starters rate is a mixture of replacing leavers and filling a growing demand for workers in the adult social care sector. Chart 8 in chapter 2.7 showed that the workforce has been increasing steadily since 2012/13 at an average of less than 1% per year in Yorkshire and Humber (2% in England). The overall increase in the number of jobs in Yorkshire and Humber between 2012/13 and 2015/16 was estimated at around 10,000 (a 7% increase); this was 80,000 (a 5% increase) for the total adult social care sector in England. Chart 12 shows the starters rate in the Yorkshire and Humber region of selected job roles between 2012/13 and 2015/16. Most notably the starters rate of registered nurses had increased by 10.6 percentage points over this period (11.9 percentage points in England), and the care workers starters rates increased by 3.9 percentage points (5.3 percentage points in England). Chart 12: Starters rate of directly employed workers by selected job roles All job roles Social worker Registered nurse Senior care worker Care worker Support and outreach 50% 47.8% 37.1% 40% 39.8% 35.9% 31.7% 34.1% 30% 28.7% 28.2% 27.2% 20% 21.1% 16.9% 18.0% 10% Recruitment and retention 0% 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 Starters trends are closely linked to staff turnover rate trends. Turnover rates and factors influencing turnover are discussed in section 4.4. 4.2 Source of recruitment The NMDS-SC collects information about the source of recruitment of each worker. These sources can then be grouped into from within the adult social care sector, including the independent or statutory local authority sectors, agency or internal promotion, and not from within the adult social care sector, including the health sector or other sources. Although the starters rate (34.1% in Yorkshire and Humber and 35% in England) and the turnover rate (28% in Yorkshire and Humber and 27% in England) seem relatively high, nearly two thirds (67%) of starters were recruited from within adult social care so the sector will have retained their skills and experience. However, those 33% of workers recruited from outside may need more training. It also means a large proportion of employers were going through the recruitment process due to the churn within the sector. In England, 66% of all job roles were recruited from within and 34% not from with the adult social care sector.

04 22 Chart 13: Source of recruitment in Yorkshire and Humber by selected job roles Recruited from within the adult social care sector Not recruited from within the adult social care sector 67% 33% 59% 41% 74% 26% All job roles Senior management Registered manager Social worker Occupational therapist Registered nurse Senior care worker Care worker Support and outreach A higher proportion of starters to statutory local authority providers were recruited from within the statutory local authority sector. Similarly, new starters within independent sector providers were more likely to have been recruited from other independent sector providers. 4.3 Experience of the adult social care workforce 4.3.1 Experience in sector 64% 72% 67% 67% 97% 85% 3% 15% 36% 28% 33% 33% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Adult social care has an experienced core of workers, with an average of eight years of experience per worker in the Yorkshire and Humber region (eight years in England) and around 71% had worked in the sector for at least three years (70% in England). Chart 14 shows that those in managerial roles had the most experience. Within regulated professional roles, registered nurses had the most experience (14.4 years) compared to 7 years for social workers and 9.1 for occupational therapists (13.6, 9.5 and 9.6 respectively in England). Care workers had the lowest average number of years of experience, (6.3 in the region and 6.3 in England), and senior care workers had an average of 10.4 years (10.5 in England). Chart 14: Year bands and average number of years of experience working in the adult social care by selected job role in Yorkshire and Humber 2 years of less 3 to 10 years More than 10 years Average years in sector All job roles 29% 44% 27% 8.0 Senior management 9% 31% 59% 16.0 Registered manager 5% 22% 74% 19.1 Social worker 36% 40% 24% 7.0 Occupational therapist 23% 43% 33% 9.1 Registered nurse 20% 30% 50% 14.4 Senior care worker 12% 49% 39% 10.4 Care worker 35% 46% 19% 6.3 Support and outreach 32% 42% 27% 7.6 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

04 23 4.3.2 Experience in role Chart 15 shows the year bands and average number of years of experience the workforce had in their current role. On average, workers had 3.3 more years of experience working in the sector than in their current role in Yorkshire and Humber (3.7 years in England). Registered managers had the most experience in the sector before starting their current role, around nine years on average, which is unsurprising given 74% were recruited from within the sector (Chart 13). Chart 15: Year bands and average number of years of experience in current role by selected job role in Yorkshire and Humber 2 years of less 3 to 10 years More than 10 years All job roles 49% 38% 13% Senior management Registered manager Social worker Occupational therapist 30% 28% 36% 30% 41% 38% 39% 49% 29% 34% 25% 21% Registered nurse 53% 34% 13% Senior care worker 35% 46% 19% Care worker Support and outreach 55% 44% 36% 38% 9% 18% Average years in role 4.7 8.0 9.0 7.4 6.9 4.4 6.0 3.7 5.7 Recruitment and retention 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% When comparing the number of years of experience in sector, workers in local authorities had more experience (10 years in sector and eight years in role in Yorkshire and Humber and 11 years in sector and eight years in role in England) compared to independent sector providers (10 years in sector and four years in role in Yorkshire and Humber and eight years in sector and four years in role in England). 4.4 Leavers and staff turnover rates Skills for Care estimates that the turnover rate of directly employed staff working in the adult social care sector in the Yorkshire and Humber region was 28% (27.3% in England). This is approximately 34,000 leavers per year (339,000 in England). The turnover rate amongst regulated professionals was 30.6% and was 31% amongst direct care roles. Similarly to England, in the Yorkshire and Humber region turnover rates varied between regulated professional roles. Social workers had a turnover rate of 12.1% and occupational therapists of 19.3%. The turnover rate of registered nurses was much higher, at 40.9%, which equates to approximately 1,600 nurses leaving their roles within the past 12 months. Care workers had the second highest turnover rate at 33.4%, this was approximately 23,700 leavers in the past 12 months.

04 24 Chart 16: Staff turnover rates in Yorkshire and Humber by selected job roles All job roles 28.0% Senior management 7.8% Registered manager 21.4% Social worker 12.1% Occupational therapist 19.3% Registered nurse 40.9% Senior care worker 20.4% Care worker 33.4% Support and outreach 21.9% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% As well as varying between job role, turnover rates also varied between sectors, with the statutory local authority sector having a lower turnover rate (14% for all job roles in Yorkshire and Humber and 12.6% in England) than the independent sector (29.9% for all job roles in Yorkshire and Humber and 28.8% in England). 4.4.1 Workforce factors affecting care worker turnover rates This section focuses on how workforce characteristics collected by the NMDS-SC relate to care workers propensity to leave their roles (independent sector data only). This was done by taking a longitudinal approach, looking at care worker data held in the NMDS-SC in September 2014 and again in September 2015, and splitting them by whether or not they were in both datasets (therefore if they had left or not). A large proportion of staff turnover is a result of people leaving the sector soon after joining. The average turnover rate of a care worker in the independent sector was 34.7%. Chart 17 shows that the longer a care worker has been in their role the less likely they are to leave. Chart 17: Care worker turnover rate by years of experience in role, independent sector only Source: NMDS-SC unweighted data between September 2014 and September 2015 60% 49.3% 33.7% 40% 24.5% 19.4% 17.9% 13.1% 16.2% 20% 0% Less than 1 year 1 to 2 years 3 to 4 years 5 to 6 years 7 to 10 years 11 to 20 years More than 20 years In reality, this relationship could be even more pronounced because some care workers that leave the sector soon after joining could have left before their employer had chance to record them in the NMDS-SC.

04 25 Those paid more were less likely to leave their role The chart below shows care worker turnover rate by average hourly pay bands, the turnover rate did decrease as workers were paid more, however only slightly for workers paid under 8.00 per hour. Turnover rates were noticeably lower for those paid more than 8.00 per hour, at 23.6%. Chart 18: Care worker turnover rate by average hourly pay bands, independent sector only Source: NMDS-SC unweighted data between September 2014 and September 2015 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 30.7% 33.6% 26.2% The sector also has difficulties in retaining younger workers 23.6% Under 7.20 7.20 to 7.59 7.60 to 7.99 8.00 and above The chart below shows care workers aged under 20 had the highest turnover rates, and turnover decreased as workers got older, up to the age of around 65 where, unsurprisingly, turnover rates started to increase as retirement age approaches. Recruitment and retention Chart 19: Care worker turnover rate by age bands, independent sector only Source: NMDS-SC unweighted data between September 2014 and September 2015 50% 47% 41% 40% 36% 33% 29% 28% 28% 30% 22% 23% 22% 24% 18% 19% 20% 10% 0% Under 18 18 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69 Over 70 There is likely to be a large increase in demand for labour in the sector (see chapter 7). This is driven by demographic change and will mean employers and policy makers need to look wider than the traditional demographics for recruitment in the future. Skills for Care is working in conjunction with the government and other social care employers on a number of initiatives to encourage employers to see potential in more underrepresented groups such as disabled people, males and younger workers. For more information please see

04 26 the recruit a more diverse workforce section of the Skills for Care finding and keeping workers; attract more people webpage 10. Skills for Care advocates adopting a holist approach to values and behaviours recruitment and retention, wherever possible, as a way for employers to target, attract and take on the right people that are more likely to stay and progress in the adult social care sector. Employers should now be looking at ways in which they develop new and innovative ways to target and attract people with potential (and not necessarily prior work experience/training and qualifications). Please see www.skillsforcare.org.uk/vbr. Skills for Care is working to promote careers in care. Adult social care offers a range of rewarding careers, with many different job roles, and lots of opportunities. A career in adult social care can offer progress, have job security, and get an enormous sense of personal achievement. For more information please visit the Think Care Careers 11 webpage or Thinking of going an Apprenticeship 12 webpage. 4.4.2 Turnover rate trends In the Yorkshire and Humber region turnover rates increased steadily, by 6.8 percentage points, between 2012/13 and 2015/16. Turnover rates also increased at a similar rate, by 4.7 percentage points, in England over the same period. Chart 20 shows turnover rates trends of selected job roles in the Yorkshire and Humber region. Chart 20: Turnover rate trend of selected job roles, between 2012/13 and 2015/16 All sectors Senior management Registered manager Social worker Occupational therapist Registered nurse Senior care worker Care worker Support and outreach 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 40.9% 33.4% 28.4% 28.0% 25.8% 21.9% 23.0% 21.2% 21.4% 19.4% 20.4% 19.3% 13.0% 11.8% 12.1% 9.5% 6.5% 7.8% 2012 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 10 www.skillsforcare.org.uk/attract 11 http://www.skillsforcare.org.uk/care-careers/think-care-careers/home-page.aspx 12 http://www.skillsforcare.org.uk/care-careers/think-care-careers/starting-a-career/thinking-of-doing-anapprenticeship.aspx

04 27 Although this section shows average turnover rates it is important to remember that the adult social care sector has an experienced core of workers and that many employers have lower turnover rates. Skills for Care is conducting a piece of research into employers with a turnover rate of less than 10% and investigating what lessons can be learnt and shared with the sector, please see section 8.6 about how to be kept up to date with our research. 4.5 Sickness rates With an estimated workforce of 130,000 within statutory local authority and independent sector providers and an average of 6 sickness days, this equates to a total of approximately 785,000 days lost to sickness each year in the Yorkshire and Humber region and approximately 7 million in England. Chart 21 shows sickness day bands and the average sickness rate by selected job roles in Yorkshire and Humber. Chart 21: Average number of sickness days taken by selected job roles All job roles Senior management Registered manager Social worker Occupational therapist Zero 6 or less More than 6 57% 76% 26% 17% 17% 7% 72% 49% 52% 25% 28% 17% 11% 26% 20% Mean Sickness 6.0 3.3 3.3 9.9 5.8 Recruitment and retention Registered nurse 68% 25% 8% 3.2 Senior care worker 54% 29% 17% 5.7 Care worker 58% 26% 17% 6.1 Support and outreach 54% 24% 22% 8.3 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% On average sickness rates were higher within statutory local authority providers (11.7 days for all job roles and 13.9 for care workers) than the independent sector providers (5.3 days for all job roles and 5.5 for care workers). 4.6 Vacancy rates Skills for Care estimates that 5.3% of roles in the Yorkshire and Humber region in the adult social care sector were vacant, this means approximately 6,000 vacancies at any one time (6.8% or 84,000 vacancies across England). Chart 22 shows vacancy rates by job roles in Yorkshire and Humber. Regulated professional roles had amongst the highest vacancy rates within the sector however these roles have high entry requirements compared to other roles in social care (e.g. direct care roles), and they tend to require specialised qualifications and experience. As a result, candidates for these roles may be in relatively low supply.

04 28 Chart 22: Proportion of vacant roles by selected job role All job roles Senior management Registered manager Social worker Occupational therapist Registered nurse Senior care worker Care worker Support and outreach 1.6% Vacancy rates were higher within the statutory local authority providers than the independent providers. And higher within domiciliary care providers, in the Yorkshire and Humber region the care worker vacancy rate were double within domiciliary care providers (at 8.3%) than residential care providers (at 4.1%). This was 11.4% compared to 4.9% respectively in the sector as a whole. 4.6.1 Vacancy rate trends 3.3% 4.3% 5.3% 5.7% 5.4% 6.2% Chart 23 shows vacancy rates between 2012/13 and 2015/16 in Yorkshire and Humber. The vacancy rate of all job roles had risen each year over this period, from 3.1% in 2012/13 to 5.3% in 2015/16, and from 4.5% to 6.8% over the same period in England. Chart 23: Vacancy rate trends for all job roles, 2013-2016 10.7% 10.2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% All job roles Senior management Registered manager Social worker Occupational therapist Registered nurse Senior care worker Care worker Support and outreach 10% 11.3% 10.7% 10.2% 6.2% 5.7% 5.4% 5% 3.7% 3.5% 5.3% 3.1% 4.3% 2.9% 3.3% 2.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.6% 0% 1.0% 2012 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 4.7 Further information For further information about recruitment and retention from the NMDS-SC; in more detail or in your geographical area please contact analysis@skillsforcare.org.uk, visit the NMDS- SC Dashboards at: www.nmds-sc-online.org.uk/reportengine/dashboard.aspx or see http://www.skillsforcare.org.uk/stateof for the statistical appendixes in Excel.

Workforce demographics Workforce demographics 05

05 30 Overview of workforce demographics in Yorkshire and Humber, as at 2015/16 In Yorkshire and Humber, females made up 83% of the adult social care workforce compared to 51% in the population and 47% of the economically active population. The average age of a worker was 43 years old and a fifth were aged over 55 years old. Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME) workers made up 10% of the workforce which was less diverse than the Yorkshire and Humber population (11% BAME). The majority (92%) of the adult social care workforce were British, 3% had an EU nationality and 5% a non-eu nationality. Registered nurses had a higher proportion of EU workers (9%) and non-eu workers (19%). 5. Workforce demographics This chapter looks at the demographic information of the adult social care workforce including gender, age, ethnicity, nationality, country of birth and year of entry if not from the UK. 5.1 Gender Chart 24 shows the gender breakdown of the overall population, the economically active population and the adult social care workforce in Yorkshire and Humber and England. Although the breakdown of the population of the region and England were the same, the proportion of males in adult social care was slightly lower in Yorkshire and Humber. Chart 24: Gender of the adult social care workforce, the population and the economically active population Source: NMDS-SC workforce estimates 2015/2016 and 2011 Census, Office for National Statistics Males Females England Population Economically active Adult social care 18% 49% 53% 82% 51% 47% Yorkshire and Humber Population Economically active Adult social care 17% 49% 53% 83% 51% 47% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Gender did not vary significantly between the job role groups, nor did it vary between Yorkshire and Humber and England as a whole. Chart 25 shows the gender split of the adult social care workforce in the Yorkshire and Humber region by selected job roles. There was some variation between individual job roles with senior managers having the highest proportion of male workers (33%) and occupational therapists the highest proportion of females (88%).

05 31 Chart 25: Gender breakdown in the Yorkshire and Humber by selected job roles Males Females All job roles 17% 83% Senior management 33% 67% Registered manager 13% 87% Social worker 20% 80% Occupational therapist 12% 88% Registered nurse 14% 86% Senior care worker 14% 86% Care worker 15% 85% Support and outreach 22% 78% 5.2 Age 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Chart 26 shows the age distribution in Yorkshire and Humber of the adult social care workforce, the population and the economically active. The adult social care workforce was skewed towards the older age bands and was similar to the age distribution of England. Chart 26: Age distribution of the adult social care workforce, the population of England and the economically active population Source: NMDS-SC workforce estimates 2015/2016 and 2011 Census Under 25 25 to 29 30 to 44 45 to 59 60 to 64 65 and over England Yorkshire and Humber Population Economically active Adult social care Population Economically active Adult social care 14% 10% 16% 11% 31% 11% 31% 11% 11% 11% 7% 30% 7% 29% 34% 33% 21% 20% 19% 38% 20% 39% 31% 32% 6% 6% 16% 6% 3% 7% 4% 17% 6% 3% 7% 3% Workforce demographics 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Chart 27 shows the age bands and average age of workers in Yorkshire and Humber by selected job roles. The average adult social care worker was 43 years old in Yorkshire and Humber which was the same as the England average. From a workforce planning point of view, workers aged 55 and over could retire within the next 10 years. This age category accounted for just over a fifth of the adult social care workforce, a quarter of workers in managerial and 30% of regulated professional job role groups. As one would expect, care workers had a slightly younger age profile than other job roles in the sector, with 16% being under 25 compared to 1% of managerial and 2% of regulated professional roles.

05 32 Chart 27: Age bands and average age in the Yorkshire and Humber by selected job roles Under 25 25 to 54 55 and over Mean Age All job roles Senior management Registered manager Social worker Occupational therapist Registered nurse Senior care worker Care worker Support and outreach 11% 1% <1% 3% 2% 2% 6% 16% 7% 67% 66% 69% 76% 77% 65% 74% 66% 69% 22% 33% 31% 21% 21% 34% 20% 18% 24% 42.5 49.6 49.0 44.0 44.3 48.3 43.2 40.4 44.4 Skills for Care is working in conjunction with the government and other social care employers on a number of initiatives to encourage younger people to join and stay in adult social care, for example I Care Ambassadors and Apprenticeships. For more information about recruitment and retention please see chapter 4. 5.2.1 Age trends 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% The adult social care sector has often been described as having an ageing workforce, however it is more accurate to say the sector has consistently had a workforce with an older than average age profile, particularly for job roles other than care workers. Chart 28 shows the average age of the adult social care workforce and the economically active population of the region. The average age of the workforce marginally increased over the four years, although there was little evidence of the workforce aging significantly. Chart 28: Average age trends of the economically active population, the adult social care workforce and job role groups Sources: NMDS-SC workforce estimates 2012/13-2015/16 & Labour Force Survey (LFS) LFS - Economically active 50 40 30 20 41.3 41.1 40.6 40.5 10 0 41.9 42.1 42.4 42.5 46.5 46.9 47.0 46.7 2013 46.3 2014 46.4 2015 46.5 2016 46.9 2013 40.4 2014 40.8 2015 41.1 41.1 2016 2013 2014 2015 2016 2013 2014 2015 2016 All job roles Managerial Regulated profession Direct care

05 33 5.3 Ethnicity Chart 29 shows that the ethnicity profile of the adult social care workforce in England (20% Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME)) was more diverse than the overall population (15% BAME). The ethnicity breakdown in Yorkshire and Humber was less diverse than that of England, with 10% BAME workers within adult social care compared to 11% BAME in the Yorkshire and Humber population. Chart 29: Ethnicity of the adult social care sector and the population Source: NMDS-SC workforce estimates 2015 and 2011 Census White BAME England Population 85% Adult social care 80% 15% 20% Yorkshire and Humber Population Adult social care 89% 90% 11% 10% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% The chart below shows the proportion of white and BAME workers by job role group. In Yorkshire and Humber regulated professionals had the highest proportion of BAME workers (24%) which were largely due to registered nurses, at 31%. Registered managers had the lowest proportion of BAME workers, at 3%. Chart 30: Ethnicity of the adult social care sector by job role group White BAME All job roles 80% Managerial 87% Regulated professional 68% Direct care 79% All job roles 90% Managerial 95% Regulated professional 76% Direct care 90% England Yorkshire and Humber 20% 13% 32% 21% 10% 5% 24% 10% Workforce demographics 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 5.4 Nationality British nationals made up the vast majority of the adult social care workforce, with Yorkshire and Humber (92%) having a higher proportion than England overall (83%). As with ethnicity, the higher proportion of non-british regulated professional workers in Yorkshire and Humber were largely due to registered nurses, where 27% were non-british.

05 34 It should be noted that NMDS-SC does not collect data on second nationalities or workers' immigration status. Some 'non-british' workers may have gained indefinite leave to remain. Table 5: Nationality of the adult social care sector by job role group British EU (non-british) Non-EU All job roles 119,000 4,200 6,500 Managerial 10,700 300 200 Regulated professions 5,300 400 900 Direct care 86,000 2,900 5,000 Numbers may not sum to total due to rounding Chart 31: Nationality of the adult social care sector by job role group All job roles British EU (non-british) Non-EU 83% 7% 11% England Managerial Regulated professional 72% 91% 11% 4% 5% 18% Direct care 82% 7% 11% Yorkshire and Humber All job roles Managerial Regulated professional Direct care 92% 96% 79% 92% 7% 3% 5% 2% 2% 14% 3% 5% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% The nationality profile of registered nurses working in the sector was different to the population as a whole, with a larger proportion of non-british nurses in the sector than the population average. In Yorkshire and Humber over two thirds (73%) of nurses had a British nationality, 9% had an EU nationality and 19% had a non-eu nationality. In England 64% had a British nationality, 13% had an EU nationality and 23% had a non-eu nationality. The nationality of the adult social care workforce also varied by region, with London having the most diverse breakdown with a particular high reliance on non-eu (29% of the workforce) and EU workers (12%) of the workforce. Chart 32 shows the top five nationalities of non-british workers as recorded in the NMDS-SC. In the Yorkshire and Humber region, 15% of non-british workers were from Poland and 11% were from the Philippines and 11% from Zimbabwe. Four of the top five nationalities were from non-eu countries.

05 35 Chart 32: Top five nationalities of non-british workers ( EU (non-british) Non-EU) Source: NMDS-SC unweighted data 2015/2016 England Yorkshire and Humber Poland Philippines India Nigeria Romania 5.4.1 Nationality trends 11% 9% 8% 8% 8% 0% 5% 10% 15% Poland Philippines Zimbabwe India Nigeria 6% 5% 11% 11% 15% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% The nationality breakdown of the adult social care workforce remained fairly consistent from 2012/13 to 2015/16. In the Yorkshire and Humber region, the proportion of non- British EU workers remained the same from 2012/13 to 2015/16 while non-eu workers fell by 1% in the same period. Chart 33: Nationality of adult social care, 2012/13 to 2015/16, Yorkshire and Humber 2015/16 2014/15 2013/14 2012/13 5.5 Country of birth British EU (non-british) Non-EU 92% 91% 90% 91% 3% 5% 3% 6% 4% 6% 3% 6% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Workforce demographics The country of birth of workers provides a slightly different perspective to that of nationality. Chart 34 shows that a greater proportion of the regional workforce were born outside the UK (9%) than the proportion of non-british workers (8%), suggesting that some workers have gained British nationality since arriving in the UK. Chart 34: Country of birth group of the adult social care workforce by job role group All job roles British EU (non-british) Non-EU 78% 6% 15% Managerial 86% 4% 10% Regulated professional 62% 10% 27% Direct care 77% 6% 17% All job roles 91% 3% 6% Managerial 96% 2% 3% Regulated professional 74% 7% 19% Direct care 92% 3% 6% England Yorkshire and Humber 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

05 36 5.5.1 Year of entry to the UK The NMDS-SC allows us to analyse workers born outside the UK by their year of entry into the UK. Chart 35 shows that in Yorkshire and Humber 44% of non-uk born workers had arrived in the UK since 2007 while 56% had been in the UK since pre-2007 and may now hold a British passport. It should be noted that employers did not always know the year of arrival for their workers and therefore these figures were based on fewer responses than other areas of this report. Chart 35: Year of entry to the UK of non-uk born adult social care workers Source: NMDS-SC unweighted data 2015/2016 Pre 1995 15% England 1995-1999 2000-2003 2004-2006 2007-2010 5% 13% 17% 22% 2011- present 28% Pre 1995 14% Yorkshire and Humber 1995-1999 2000-2003 2004-2006 2007-2010 2011- present 4% 17% 21% 20% 24% 5.6 Further information 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% For more information and to perform your own analysis of workforce demographic data held in the NMDS-SC please visit the Skills for Care Open Access NMDS-SC Dashboards at: www.nmds-sc-online.org.uk/reportengine/dashboard.aspx. For a bespoke analysis of workforce demographic information from the NMDS-SC; in more detail, in your geographical area or to answer any specific questions you have about the adult social care workforce please contact analysis@skillsforcare.org.uk. To support the data that has been published in this report, Skills for Care has produced two statistical appendixes in Excel, one at England level and one at regional level. Please see http://www.skillsforcare.org.uk/stateof for the appendix.

Pay, qualifications and training Pay, qualifications and training 06

06 38 Overview of average pay rates in the Yorkshire and Humber region, as at 2015/16 It is important to note that the pay data used in this analysis predates the mandatory National Living Wage (NLW) introduced in April 2016, so some hourly wages may fall below the 7.20 limit. Registered manager full-time equivalent (FTE) average annual pay was 28,000 Occupational therapist FTE average annual pay was 25,400 Registered nurse FTE average annual pay was 24,200 Social worker FTE average annual pay was 31,400 Senior care worker average hourly rate was 7.99 Care worker average hourly rate was 7.26 Qualification and training information can be found on page 44 to 48 6. Pay rates The NMDS-SC collects pay rates at annual or hourly intervals, or the user can state that a worker is unpaid. The NMDS-SC also collects information about workers contracted hours. The information in this section shows full-time equivalent (FTE) average salaries. Pay data was converted into FTE annual salaries using an average working week of 37 hours (the full-time equivalent). Converting pay in this way allows for pay of full-time and part-time workers to be better compared. It is important to note that the pay data used in this analysis predates the mandatory National Living Wage (NLW) introduced in April 2016, so some hourly wages may fall below the 7.20 limit. Statutory local authority pay data was as at September 2015 and independent sector pay data was as at March 2016. Skills for Care will be publishing analysis on the NLW later this year, however early evidence from NMDS-SC shows that rates have increased since April 2016. 6.1 Full-time equivalent annual pay Chart 36 shows that the mean full-time equivalent annual salaries in the region were less than the England average. Regulated professionals were the highest paid job role group ( 26,400) closely followed by managerial staff at 25,800. Direct care workers had an average annual salary of 14,500; this was 300 a year lower than England. Chart 36: Full-time equivalent mean annual pay rate by selected job role groups England Yorkshire and Humber Managerial 26,300 25,800 Regulated profession 27,400 26,400 Direct care 14,800 14,500 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 Chart 37 shows mean FTE annual pay rates by selected adult social care job roles. Senior managers were the highest paid role in Yorkshire and Humber with a mean annual wage of 32,000 followed by social workers on 31,400. The average annual pay rate for a

06 39 registered nurse in the Yorkshire and Humber region was 24,200 which was 800 less than the England average. Chart 37: Full-time equivalent mean annual pay rate by selected job roles England Yorkshire and Humber Senior management 32,200 32,000 Registered manager 28,600 28,000 Social worker 33,100 31,400 Occupational therapist 29,500 25,400 Registered nurse 25,000 24,200 6.1.1 Annual pay trends 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 Chart 38 shows that the average nominal and real term annual pay rates of selected professional job roles and registered managers from 2012/13 to 2015/16 (see section 6.7 for definitions of nominal and real term pay). The nominal pay for each job role in Chart 38 increased from 2012/13 to 2015/16. Registered managers reported the greatest real term pay increase of 5% since 2012/13 (a 3% increase across England as a whole). Over the four year period, social workers within statutory local authorities real term pay increased by 1,000 (3%), registered nurses increased by 1,000 (4%) and occupational therapists were 400 better off. Chart 38: Nominal and real term annual pay trends of selected professional roles in Yorkshire and Humber Social worker (LA) Occupational therapist (LA) Registered nurse Registered manager 35K 31.9K 29.7K 30.9K 31.9K 30K 29.6K 29.6K 28.K 29.2K 28.K 28.K 26.7K 25K 25.7K 24.2K 24.2K 22.3K 23.2K 20K Pay, qualifications and training 15K 10K 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 Nominal Real term

06 40 6.2 Hourly pay In April 2016 a new mandatory National Living Wage (NLW) for workers aged 25 and over was introduced at 7.20. It is important to note that the pay data used in this analysis predates the mandatory National Living Wage (NLW) introduced in April 2016, so some hourly wages may fall below the 7.20 limit. Statutory local authority pay data was as at September 2015 and independent sector pay data was as at March 2016. The UK Living Wage is an independently set hourly rate calculated according to the basic cost of living and as at November 2015 was 9.40 in London and 8.25 across the rest of the UK 13. Chart 39 below shows mean hourly pay for job role groups in the adult social care sector, and how these compare to the National Living Wage (NLW) and the UK Living Wage (UK LW). Chart 39: Mean hourly pay rate by job role group England NLW- 7.20 Managerial Regulated profession 7.69 Direct care 7.52 UK LW- 8.25 13.46 13.22 14.19 13.70 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Chart 40 shows mean hourly rates for selected direct care job roles. The senior care worker hourly rate was 7.99; this was 79p above the NLW and 26p below the UK Living Wage. The care worker hourly rate was 7.26; this was 6p above the NLW and 99p below the UK Living Wage. Chart 40: Mean hourly pay rate by selected direct care job roles England Yorkshire and Humber NLW- 7.20 7.69 All direct care roles 7.52 Senior care worker Care worker 7.46 7.26 8.28 7.99 UK LW- 8.25 0 2 4 6 8 10 13 For information about the Living Wage please visit www.livingwage.org.uk

06 41 6.2.1 Hourly pay trends This section focuses on nominal and real term trends in senior care worker and care worker pay in the independent sector since 2012/13. Real term hourly rates are discounted for inflation using CPI inflation and are expressed in 2016 prices (see section 6.7 for more information). Senior care worker Chart 41 shows that the average nominal senior care worker pay in Yorkshire and Humber increased steadily from 7.83 in 2012/13 to 7.99 in 2015/16 (2% increase). Real term senior care worker pay decreased by 16p between 2012/13 and 2015/16. Over the four year period, real term senior care worker pay decreased by 2% in Yorkshire and Humber and increased by 1% (10p) in England as a whole. Care worker Nominal care worker pay in Yorkshire and Humber also increased over the same period from 7.06 to 7.26 (3% increase). Real term care worker pay decreased by 9p (-1%) between 2012/13 and 2015/16. There was an increase of 1% over the four year period in England. Chart 41: Senior care worker and care worker nominal and real term hourly rates trends in the Yorkshire and Humber 10 8 Senior care worker Care worker 7.83 7.94 8.00 7.99 8.15 8.06 8.00 7.99 6 7.06 7.14 7.21 7.26 7.35 7.25 7.21 7.26 4 2 0 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 Nominal Real term Pay, qualifications and training Across adult social care there are employers who may base pay scales around levels of qualifications and skills. The rest of this chapter discusses qualifications and skills held by the adult social care workforce. Skills for Care will be publishing analysis on the National Living Wage later in 2016. To receive our workforce intelligence newsletter, visit www.skillsforcare.org.uk/register and select workforce intelligence publications. You can also follow us on Twitter @sfc_nmds_sc.

06 42 Overview of qualification and training information in Yorkshire and Humber, 2015/16 Skills for Care believe that everyone working in adult social care should be able to take part in learning and development so they can carry out their role effectively, this will help to develop the right skills and knowledge so they can provide high quality care and support. Over three fifths (61%) of direct care staff who were new to their role had either achieved the Care Certificate or were in the process of doing so. 81% of senior care workers and 47% of care workers held a qualification at level 2 or above. Of the workers with training recorded in the NMDS-SC, the most populated categories of training were moving and handling (75%) and safeguarding adults (73%). Around 99% of the adult social care workforce had achieved or were working towards a relevant social care qualification, the Care Certificate, an induction, training relevant to their role or had five or more years of experience working in the sector. These are the benefits of having qualifications. Quality service - completing qualifications leads to highly skilled and competent workers providing high quality care and support. Safety - training and qualifications in the key areas of health and safety provide reassurance about workers confidence and competence. Value for money - qualification achievements give considerable added value and assist workforce planning in the organisation. Retention - workers who receive structured learning and development feel valued and supported and are more likely to remain in their post. Marketability - customer confidence and satisfaction is increased and the reputation of the organisation is enhanced. 6.3 Care Certificate The Care Certificate launched in April 2015 and replaced the Common Induction Standards (CIS). The Care Certificate is an identified set of standards that health and social care workers adhere to in their daily working life. For more information about the Care Certificate please visit www.skillsforcare.org.uk/carecertificate. Designed with the non-regulated workforce in mind, the Care Certificate gives everyone the confidence that workers have the same introductory skills, knowledge and behaviours to provide compassionate, safe and high quality care and support. It: applies across health and social care links to National Occupational Standards and units in qualifications covers what is required to be caring, giving workers a good basis from which they can further develop their knowledge and skills. Although the Care Certificate is available to all, the main target is workers who are new to social care. Chart 42 shows the Care Certificate breakdown of NMDS-SC data for direct care staff who joined the adult social care sector from January 2015 and started their current role from April 2015. Over three fifths (61%) of these direct care staff in Yorkshire and Humber (62% in England) had achieved the Care Certificate or were in the process of doing so.

06 43 Chart 42: Care Certificate status of direct care workers in NMDS-SC Source: NMDS-SC unweighted data 2015/2016 Complete In progress Not applicable All direct care 17% 45% 38% Senior care worker 15% 40% 44% Care worker 18% 46% 36% Support and outreach 10% 38% 52% England Yorkshire and Humber All direct care Senior care worker Care worker Support and outreach 17% 28% 17% 14% 44% 32% 45% 40% Chart 43 shows Care Certificate breakdown of all adult social care workers, not just workers who were new to social care. Almost a fifth of workers had completed or were in process of completing the Care Certificate in Yorkshire and Humber. Chart 43 : Care Certificate status of the adult social care workforce 39% 39% 38% 46% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Complete In progress Not applicable England 4% 20% 77% Yorkshire and Humber 3% 14% 83% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 6.4 Qualifications held This section looks at the highest level of qualifications held by adult social care staff. Please note that professional roles are not included in the analysis below because they must be qualified to perform their roles, e.g. social worker, registered nurse or occupational therapist. Pay, qualifications and training In terms of the highest level of qualification held, just over half (55%) of the workforce held a relevant social care qualification, while 45% had no relevant qualifications recorded in the NMDS-SC. Chart 44 shows highest qualification level held by job role group in Yorkshire and Humber and England as might be expected, direct care staff were most likely to be qualified at levels 2 and 3 (46%) while those in managerial roles were most likely to be qualified at levels 3 and 4 (68%); this breakdown was very similar to England as a whole.

06 44 Chart 44: Highest qualification level by selected job role groups Entry or level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 and above Other relevant social care qualifications No relevant social care qualifications England Managerial Direct care 7% 1% 1% 26% 24% 18% 43% 3% 4% 3% 49% 22% Yorkshire and Humber Managerial Direct care 7% 0% 1% 24% 28% 18% 45% 4% 4% 4% 45% 20% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Chart 45 shows that in Yorkshire and Humber 30% of care workers had a highest qualification at level two and 14% at level three. Almost half (49%) of senior care workers had a highest qualification at level three and 9% at level four. Chart 45: Highest qualification level of senior care workers and care workers Entry or level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 and above Other relevant social care qualifications No relevant social care qualifications England Senior care worker Care worker 0% 1% 21% 27% 14% 50% 3% 3% 2% 10% 53% 17% Yorkshire and Humber Senior care worker Care worker 0% 1% 22% 30% 14% 49% 3% 3% 3% 9% 49% 17% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 6.5 Training The NMDS-SC has 23 training categories and provides employers with the option of recording training data in addition to accredited qualifications. Chart 46 is based on all workers in Yorkshire and Humber who had some training data recorded. The most populated areas of training were moving and handling (75%) and safeguarding adults (73%).

06 45 Chart 46: Top 10 categories of training recorded in NMDS-SC in the region Source: NMDS-SC unweighted data 2015/2016 Moving & Handling Safeguarding Adults Health & Safety Fire safety Food safety & catering Infection Control First Aid Mental capacity & Deprivation of liberty Medication safe handling & awareness Dementia 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% * Mental Capacity Act and Deprivation of Liberty safeguards 6.6 Skills 63% 60% 57% 55% 50% 47% 47% 39% 75% 73% In this section, a skilled worker will refer to any worker who has achieved or was working towards a relevant social care qualification, the Care Certificate, an induction, training relevant to their role or if the worker has had five or more years of experience within the adult social care sector. Section 6.4 reported that just over half of the workforce (55%) in Yorkshire and Humber held a relevant social care qualification (52% in England). Chart 47 below shows the skills acquired by the remaining 45% of the workforce who did not hold a relevant social care qualification (for an overall workforce breakdown of each skill please see section 6.3 for the Care Certificate, 6.5 for training or 4.3.1 for experience in the sector). Of workers in Yorkshire and Humber without a relevant social care qualification, 82% had completed an induction, 18% had completed or were in the process of completing the recently launched Care Certificate, 83% had completed training relevant to their role and 45% had more than five years of experience in the adult social care sector. Chart 47: Skills recorded in NMDS-SC for workers without a relevant social care qualification Source: NMDS-SC unweighted data 2015/2016 England Yorkshire and Humber Induction completed/in progress 83% 82% Care Certificate completed/in progress 21% 18% Training completed 81% 83% 5 years or more in the sector 42% 45% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Pay, qualifications and training

06 46 Almost all, around 99%, of the adult social care workforce had achieved or were working towards a relevant social care qualification, the Care Certificate, an induction, training relevant to their role or had more than five years of experience in the sector. Chart 48: Skills recorded by the adult social care workforce Source: NMDS-SC unweighted data 2015/2016 Skills recorded No skills recorded England 99.0% 1.0% Yorkshire and Humber 98.8% 1.2% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 6.7 Nominal and real term pay definition Real term means that the pay rate had been adjusted to take inflation into account and has been calculated using the Consumers Price Index (CPI) (the official measure of inflation of consumer prices in the UK). Nominal pay is not adjusted for inflation and shows the pay rates as they were at the time. As an example, a worker s wage may have increased by two percent in a year. However, if inflation also rises by two percent then the worker will be no better off from the pay rise; the nominal pay rise was two percent but in real terms it was zero. 6.8 Further information Skills for Care has a leading role in determining the structure and content of vocational qualifications in adult social care to ensure that they are fit for purpose. There is lots of information on the Skills for Care website about qualifications, apprenticeships, skills and standards, including tools such as the Skills Selector, information about training materials. Please see the Skills for Care website for more details. www.skillsforcare.org.uk. For more information and to perform your own analysis of pay, qualification or training data held in the NMDS-SC please visit the Skills for Care Open Access NMDS-SC Dashboards at: www.nmds-sc-online.org.uk/reportengine/dashboard.aspx. For a bespoke analysis of workforce pay rates, qualification levels, training, skills or care certificate information from the NMDS-SC; in more detail, in your geographical area or to answer any specific questions you have about the adult social care workforce please contact analysis@skillsforcare.org.uk.

Workforce forecasts 07 Workforce forecasts

07 48 Overview of future projections of the adult social care workforce in the Yorkshire and Humber region. The total number of people aged 65 and over is projected to increase by 20% between 2015 and 2025. If the adult social care workforce grows proportionally to the projected number of people aged 65 and over in the population then the number of adult social care jobs will increase by 16% (25,000 jobs) to 180,000 jobs by 2025. 7. Projections of the future adult social care workforce As shown in Chart 1 in section 2.1 the Projecting Older People Population Information System (POPPI) 14 shows that the total number of people aged 65 and over is projected to increase by 20% between 2015 and 2025 from 976,800 to 1,167,900 in the Yorkshire and Humber region, and increased by 21% (from 9,737,600 to 11,806,600) between 2015 and 2025 in England. 7.1 Workforce forecasts This section presents a demand based projection for the size of the adult social care workforce between 2015 and 2025. This projection should be treated as a base case projection as it only accounts for demographic and population change over the period. It does not account for any political, economic, technological or social factors that could have an impact on the future size of the workforce. The projection uses a model that compares the number of adult social care jobs in each local authority area with the corresponding number of people aged 65 and over in the population. These two factors were found to be highly correlated (on average the more people aged 65 and over in an area, the larger the adult social care workforce was). This relationship is demonstrated in the chart below where each dot represents a local authority area and the dotted line represents the relationship between the two factors. On average in the Yorkshire and Humber region in 2015, the model predicts that one adult social care job was required for every six people aged 65 or over in the population. This was the same as England as a whole, at one adult social care job to every six people. Chart 49: Relationship between adult social care workforce size and population aged 65 and over in each local authority area in Yorkshire and Humber, 2015 25,000 Adult social care workforce size 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000120,000140,000160,000 65+ population size 14 www.poppi.org.uk

07 49 This model was then applied to POPPI estimates of the number of people aged 65 or over in 2018, 2020 and 2025 to create a forecast for the number of adult social care jobs over the period. Table 6 and Chart 50 show the results of the model and also an extrapolation based on the current rate of the growth of the workforce (which has been included for comparative purposes). Table 6: Adult social care jobs forecasts between 2015 and 2025 based on the number of people in the population aged 65 and over England Yorkshire and Humber Total Percentage Total Jobs increase increase Jobs increase Year from 2015 from 2015 from 2015 Percentage increase from 2015 2015 1,550,000 155,000 2018 1,630,000 75,000 5% 165,000 5,000 4% 2020 1,680,000 125,000 8% 165,000 10,000 7% 2025 1,830,000 275,000 18% 180,000 25,000 16% Chart 50: Adult social care jobs forecasts between 2015 and 2025, Yorkshire and Humber 210,000 190,000 65+ model Current rate of growth (2012 to 2015) 190,000 170,000 150,000 130,000 180,000 165,000 165,000 155,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 The model projects that if the adult social care workforce grows proportionally to the projected number of people aged 65 and over in the Yorkshire and Humber population, then a 16% increase (25,000 new jobs) will be required by 2025. The projected increase for the adult social care sector as a whole was 18%, this would be 275,000 new jobs in England. Chart 51 shows this as a percentage increase of workers that may be needed to keep up with demand in the future. Chart 51: Additional adult social care workforce jobs forecasts 2015 to 2025, by region Current workforce Additional workforce by 2025 Workforce forecasts England 1,550,000 275,000 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000

07 50 Chart 51 continued: Additional workforce jobs forecasts 2015 to 2025, by region Current workforce Additional workforce by 2025 Eastern East Midlands London North East North West South East South West West Midlands Yorkshire and Humber 165,000 140,000 35,000 30,000 205,000 35,000 95,000 15,000 210,000 250,000 30,000 50,000 165,000 165,000 155,000 30,000 25,000 25,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 Chart 52: Percentage increase of adult social care jobs forecasts from 2015 to 2025 25% 20% 20% 20% 20% 15% 18% 17% 16% 15% 10% 16% 16% 5% 0% Eastern East London North North South South West Yorkshire Midlands East West East West Midlands and Humber 7.2 Further information Skills for Care is working to promote careers in care. Adult social care is a growing sector which offers a range of rewarding careers, with many different job roles, and lots of opportunities for progression. A career in adult social care can offer progress, have job security, and get an enormous sense of personal achievement. For more information please visit the Think Care Careers 15 site or Thinking of going an Apprenticeship 16 site. For a bespoke analysis of NMDS-SC in your geographical area or to answer any specific questions you have about the adult social care workforce please contact analysis@skillsforcare.org.uk. To support the data that has been published in this report, Skills for Care has produced two statistical appendixes in Excel, one at England level and one at regional level. Please see http://www.skillsforcare.org.uk/stateof for the appendix. 15 http://www.skillsforcare.org.uk/care-careers/think-care-careers/home-page.aspx 16 http://www.skillsforcare.org.uk/care-careers/think-care-careers/starting-a-career/thinking-of-doing-anapprenticeship.aspx

Further resources 08 Further resources

08 52 Skills for Care provides outstanding workforce intelligence relied upon by government, strategic bodies, employers and individuals to make decisions that will improve outcomes for people who use services. NMDS-SC is recognised as the leading source of workforce intelligence for adult social care. This chapter provides an overview of some of the reports and resources published by Skills for Care that use NMDS-SC information. 8. Uses of NMDS-SC data and further resources 8.1 Other workforce intelligence publications The size and structure of the adult social care sector and workforce in England The annual size and structure of the adult social care sector and workforce in England includes estimates of the number of care providing organisations, establishments/care providing locations, people and job estimates, trend data and future projections. To access this report please visit www.skillsforcare.org.uk/sizeandstructure. Latest version, July 2016 The state of the adult social care sector and workforce in England This report uses data from the NMDS-SC to explore characteristics of the adult social care sector, including demographic information, recruitment and retention issues, pay rates and qualification and training information. This report also includes information about workforce trends between 2012/13 and 2015/2016, including turnover rates, vacancy rates, zero-hours contracts and pay rates. To access this report please visit www.skillsforcare.org.uk/stateof. Latest version, September 2016 Local authority area reports There are a series of two page summary reports for each of the 152 local authority areas in England, these reports are published twice a year, the latest reports focus on job role estimates by local authority area. To access any of these reports please visit www.skillsforcare.org.uk/regionalreports. Published in March and October each year NMDS-SC briefings and trend briefings Skills for Care publishes four to five short reports each year which highlight specific issues in the adult social care sector. Examples of briefing topics that have been covered in 2015 to 2016 include: the use of NMDS-SC data across the social care sector experience of the adult social care workforce care work pay trends recruitment and retention trends diversity of the adult social care workforce. To access these briefings please visit www.skillsforcare.org.uk/briefings.

08 53 8.2 Workforce planning A good workforce plan will help your organisation be more successful and make sure that you have the right people in place to meet the changing needs and future opportunities for your business. The right people are those who are keen, skilled, have the right values and behaviours and know what they are doing. These people will provide high quality care and support and help your business to grow. Our resources are especially developed for small and medium sized organisations and explain: what workforce planning is and why it s important what are the principles for it and who should be involved in it how it fits with how services are commissioned how workforce information should be used including data from the NMDS-SC how to do workforce planning using a step by step method. To access a copy of this guide and for more information about workforce planning, please visit www.skillsforcare.org.uk/workforceplanning. 8.3 NMDS-SC Dashboards Dashboards act as a diagnostic tool to shine light on issues affecting the adult social care sector and workforce. NMDS-SC data is graphically presented in an easy to understand format with tailored interpretation, simple guidance and links to related resources. Dashboards allow you to explore the following areas: There are two sets of Dashboard available: My NMDS-SC Dashboards- available to social care providers registered with the NMDS-SC Open Access NMDS-SC Dashboards- These are available to anyone with an interest in the social care sector, workforce planning, service commissioning or labour market intelligence. To access the NMDS-SC Dashboards and supporting materials please visit www.nmds-sconline.org.uk/reportengine/dashboard.aspx. Our guide for NMDS-SC account holders Using data to benefit your business gives clear examples of how NMDS-SC screens called dashboards can be used in practice for workforce planning. To download a copy visit www.skillsforcare.org.uk/gettingthemost. Further resources