Elwood 28 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD MULTIFAMILY RESEARCH MARKET INSIGHT MULTIFAMILY REPORT FOURTH QUARTER 2017 1 213 128 3 47 1 6 3 The Cushmn & Wkefield Multifmily Reserch Tem provides in-depth coverge of the Indinpolis Metropolitn Sttisticl Are. In ddition to nlyzing multifmily rent nd sle trends, these reports exmine employment Lebnon dt, key economic nnouncements, nd development pipeline news. 3 3 Dnville 3 42 2 2 2 Plinfield 2 Brownsburg Avon 1 ZIONSVILLE 8 Indinpolis Interntionl Airport Mooresville 4 NORTHWEST 4 Speedwy IMS WEST SOUTHWEST CARMEL 4 135 Meridin Hills NORTH Indinpolis CENTER DOWNTOWN Crmel Beech Grove 4 SOUTH GREENWOOD 4 Southport 1 Noblesville 4 EAST 6 NORTHEAST Lwrence SOUTHEAST FISHERS 13 234 Firlnd 6 Pendleton Greenfield Anderson IN THIS EDITION 234 6 10 Center North Northest Est Southest 10 South Southwest West Northwest Crmel RESEARCH TEAM MATT NIEHOFF RESEARCH ANALYST mtt.niehoff@cushwke.com MITCH OSTROWSKI RESEARCH ANALYST mitch.ostrowski@cushwke.com 42 144 142 3 144 Whitelnd Shelbyville 44 Frnklin 44
Fourth Qurter 2017 2 ECONOMIC EXPANSION The following re select nnouncements from fourth qurter 2017: EMPLOYMENT & UNEMPLOYMENT TRENDS The Indinpolis mrket dded 20,0 net jobs yer-over-yer for fourth qurter 2017. The 20,0 new jobs represent job growth rte of 1.%, which is bsis points higher thn the growth rte from the prior qurter. The top sectors leding the wy were Eduction nd Helth Services (+6,000 net jobs), Finncil Activities (+4,100 net jobs), nd Construction (+3,0 net jobs). JOB GROWTH TRENDS EMPLOYMENT IN MILLIONS & JOB GROWTH (%) Direct Connect Logistics hs committed to hire 0 highwge employees by the end of 2020. Blue Mrble Cocktils nd Spirits nnounced plns to relocte from Oregon to Indin. They intend to crete 51 jobs by 201. Lessonly, leder in online trining softwre, is expnding nd plns to crete 102 jobs by 2020. Flexwre Innovtion expects n expnsion in Hmilton County to crete 68 jobs by 2021. 1.08 2.5% Liberty Mutul Insurnce will dd 0 new jobs when it completes its expnsion to opertions in Hmilton County. 1.07 1.06 2.0% Clinicl Architecture, softwre development compny focusing on helth cre terminology mngement solutions, is expnding its HQ creting new jobs. 1.05 1.5% Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 FORECAST 1.04 1.0% NATIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT 5.0% 4.7% 4.1% 1.03 0.5% EMPLOYMENT (% Chnge) 2.6% 2.5% 1.% 1.02 1.01 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 0.0% UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%) 4.2% 3.7% 3.5% 2015-2016 2016-2017 YOY % Job Growth Forecst is 12-month outlook Source: Moody s Anlytics JOB GROWTH & UNEMPLOYMENT RATE +1. % YOY Averge Q4 employment incresed by 20,0. -20 BPS YOY Averge Q4 unemployment decresed to 3.5%. OUTLOOK The industril mrket set new record with regrds to construction deliveries. 2017 sw 8.1 million squre feet (msf) dded to the mrket. Construction (+6.7% YOY), Finncil Activities (+6.2% YOY) nd Trde (+1.3% YOY) jobs ll grew t bove-verge rtes. Job growth in Indinpolis will slow going into 2018 s its current expnsion cycle mtures, with Mnufcturing employment holding stble nd Technology jobs leding growth.
Fourth Qurter 2017 3 MULTIFAMILY TRENDS Effective rents re being pushed up due to new product dded to the mrket. Over 300 new units were delivered during the fourth qurter with over 2,500 units under construction nering delivery. Expect the stedy pipeline of new product to continue throughout 2018. 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% +2.7 % YOY Averge effective rent incresed to $857. Source: Yrdi Mtrix HISTORICAL & FORECASTED METRO RENT GROWTH RATES Indinpolis s one-yer historicl rent growth (per fourth qurter 2017 YOY dt) slightly lgged the ntionl verge. Yer-over-yer rent growth ws 2.7% to end 2017. Yrdi Mtrix forecsts tht Indinpolis s multifmily mrket will continully grow from rentl perspective over the next five yers. The three-yer forecst specifies tht verge rents will be estimted to be 11.5% costlier thn verge rents currently. 0.% 1.1% Source: Yrdi Mtrix RENT GROWTH RATES 0.3% 0.4% H I S T O R I C A L 2.7% Q1 '17 Q2 '17 Q3 '17 Q4 '17 1 Yer (YOY) Indinpolis United Sttes 11.5% +100 BPS YOY Vcncy incresed to 6.4%. 15.8% F O R E C A S T 17.1% 3 Yer 5 Yer 5 Yer Forecst DEVELOPMENT / INVENTORY 2017 ended with 2,712 multifmily units delivered while 2,645 units re under construction in the Indinpolis metro re. remins the most ctive submrket in terms of development, with over 1,450 units under construction, nd more proposed projects could be strting construction erly in 2018. Center Township,, nd Crmel ll hve over 300 units under construction, putting them right behind in development. DEMOGRAPHIC FUNDAMENTALS The MSA is projected to increse by 4,300 households from 2016 to 2021 with n estimted 3.% increse in renter occupncy. Totl popultion nd households re expected to keep pce s well, with growth of 5.3% nd 5.6%, respectively. POPULATION PERCENT RENTER HOUSEHOLDS MEDIAN FAMILY INCOME MULTIFAMILY FORECAST The following re Cushmn & Wkefield s projections over the ner term: RENTS VACANCY PIPELINE % GROWTH Forecst is 12-month outlook 2000 1,8,455 2010 1,887,873 2016 2,002,83 2021 2,10,514 2000 28.60% 2010 33.20% 2016 34.30% 2021 33.% 2000 $45,2 2010 $51,847 2016 $53,681 2021 $62,8
Fourth Qurter 2017 4 INVESTMENT ACTIVITY 2017 ended with close to $625 million in investment ctivity which is up nerly $25 million from 2016. The fourth qurter posted just shy of $100 million of investment. Investment ctivity ended t the second highest mrk since 2006. As we progress into 2018, dditionl technology nd wrehouse jobs will drive the mrket. Investor dollrs should continue to stedily pour into the mrket due to demnd of spce by the millennil workforce. MOST ACTIVE MARKET PLAYERS TOP FIVE BUYERS - YTD 2017 RANK BUYER TOTAL VOLUME NO. TRANSACTIONS 1 Sterling Group/Virtus RE Cpitl $8,11,2 1 2 Pedcor Mngement $88,050,000 2 3 Birge & Held $60,63,750 2 4 GIC/Scion Group/CPP Investment Bord $54,760,4 2 HISTORICAL SALES VOLUME 5 Lighthouse Group $,500,000 3 $00 TOP FIVE SELLERS - YTD 2017 (in millions) $800 $0 $600 $500 $0 RANK SELLER TOTAL VOLUME NO. TRANSACTIONS 1 Milhus Development $12,0,000 4 2 Bluestone Holdings / QVT Mount Auburn Cp $8,11,2 1 3 Meridin Relty $,300,000 2 $300 $200 4 Sinclir Brodcst Group / Hrdbor Group Int l $72,250,000 1 $100 5 Sheehn Development $56,00,000 2 $0 2005 2006 2007 2008 200 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Trnsction Volume Historicl Averge Source: Rel Cpitl Anlytics NOTABLE SALES Source: Rel Cpitl Anlytics PRICING & CAP RATES In 2017, the verge cp rte for Clss A product is up from 5.6% in 2016 to 6.2% in 2017. Conversely, the verge Clss B cp rte declined to 5.% proving fvorble for sellers. The following grph reflects price per unit trends by sset clss. $200,000 Milhus Development sold Circ Aprtments (built in 2015, 260 units,$181,1 per unit) to JVM Relty Corportion for totl of $48 million. The sset is locted in the submrket. Embssy Group sold Avery Point Aprtments (built in 187, 512 units) for $87,110 per unit to Stedfst Aprtment REIT III. The sset is locted in the Northest submrket. Rize Commercil Properties sold Courtyrd t Roselwn (built in 1, 1 units) for $10,145 per unit in November to UBS Rel Estte Solutions for totl of $1.4 million. The property ws lst renovted in 2005. $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Clss A Clss B Clss C Source: Rel Cpitl Anlytics, Cushmn & Wkefield Reserch
Fourth Qurter 2017 5 SUBMARKET OVERVIEW SELECT SUBMARKET NEWS RENTS & VACANCY BY SUBMARKET Crmel Center Est $6 $1,113 $45 $1,1 Crmel Center Est 5.8% 5.8% 7.5% 8.8% Flherty & Collins 28-story, 22-unit, luxury mixed-use development, 0 Mrket Squre Aprtments, is nering completion. It will dd new towering presence to the Indinpolis skyline. North Northest $1,046 $845 $854 $750 North Northest 4.3% 5.2% 8.6% 8.1% Direct Connect Logistics relocted its downtown hedqurters to the Cosmopolitn on Cnl. Built in 2010, the lrge mixed-use development offers 218 residentil units nd vrious commercil suites. Northwest South Southest Southwest West $758 $723 $82 $8 $727 Northwest South Southest Southwest West 6.5% 5.6% 6.5% 5.7% 8.3% The City of Indinpolis nd hospitlity officils re lying the groundwork for new hotel development. To ccommodte Indy s mny conventions nd lrge event demnd, plns include 800-1,000 rooms with significnt meeting spce nd n enormous bllroom. $1,05 5.8% UNDER CONSTRUCTION BY SUBMARKET 1,600 1,0 1,450 1,200 1,000 800 600 The Yrd, mssive culinry centric development, is moving forwrd with three tennt nnouncements: Rwkin Juice, n orgnic-vegn juice br, nd two existing concepts from St. Elmo Stekhouse Burger Study nd 133 Lounge. The Nickel Plte District mphitheter is in its finl project stges. The city of is hoping the $6-million project helps ttrct office/mixed use development north of the mphitheter. City officils re seeking proposls to build office spce on two vcnt prcels immeditely north of the mphitheter. 0 200 0 343 354 302 86 110 Crmel Center North Southest Wolf Run Golf Club, ntionlly-esteemed golf course, could be redeveloped s high-end residentil project. Initil plns include 0 homes, 200 multifmily units, 50,000 squre feet of retil nd 50,000 squre feet of office spce. Source: Yrdi Mtrix, Cushmn & Wkefield Reserch Note: Submrkets re defined by Cushmn & Wkefield Reserch
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD MULTIFAMILY Mtt Niehoff Reserch Anlyst Direct +1 7 63 0460 mtt.niehoff@cushwke.com Mitch Ostrowski Reserch Anlyst Direct +1 7 63 0487 mitch.ostrowski@cushwke.com One Americn Squre, Suite 1800, Indinpolis, IN 46282 / Min +1 7 634 63 / Fx +1 7 63 0504 / cushmnwkefield.com Cushmn & Wkefield is leding globl rel estte services firm with 45,000 employees in more thn countries helping occupiers nd investors optimize the vlue of their rel estte. Cushmn & Wkefield is mong the lrgest commercil rel estte services firms with revenue of $6 billion cross core services of gency lesing, sset services, cpitl mrkets, fcility services (C&W Services), globl occupier services, investment & sset mngement (DTZ Investors), project & development services, tennt representtion, nd vlution & dvisory. To lern more, visit www.cushmnwkefield.com or follow @CushWke on Twitter. Copyright 2018 Cushmn & Wkefield. All rights reserved. The informtion contined within this report is gthered from multiple sources considered to be relible. The informtion my contin errors or omissions nd is presented without ny wrrnty or representtions s to its ccurcy.