Projecting power... and politics? Carriers in the Indian Ocean

Jane's Navy International [Content preview Subscribe to Jane s Navy International for full article] Projecting power... and politics? Carriers in the Indian Ocean Strike-capable aircraft carriers are growing in strategic significance in the force structures of a number of navies, some of which have a strong presence in the Indian Ocean region. The region itself also is growing in geostrategic importance. Shishir Upadhyaya discusses the combined impact of these two developments From front: The Italian Navy aircraft carrier ITS Cavour, the USN's Nimitz-class nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman, and the French Navy's nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, conducting operations in the Gulf of Oman in January 2014. (US Navy) 1630572 The contemporary geostrategic environment in the Indian Ocean is shaped by a complex interplay of several factors. Firstly, the region is endowed with an abundance of strategic raw materials, notably oil and gas but also critical minerals. This has been a primary driver of the region's growing maritime trade. In addition, while trade between Indian Ocean littoral states constitutes only 20% of the total volume of trade moving across the region, the remaining 80% is destined for extra-regional markets - hence the long-term interest of extra-regional states in the Indian Ocean. Article 1 Page 1 of 13

Secondly, the region has unique geostrategic features such as key maritime chokepoints. This, coupled with enduring social, economic, and political instability as well as a range of resulting maritime security risks, has created an environment in which the security of the region's shipping has been challenged once again by pirates, with acts of piracy and armed robbery at sea re-emerging (after a gap of more than 100 years) in the chokepoints of first the Malacca Strait and then the Gulf of Aden region. Thirdly, the vulnerability of the Indian Ocean littoral states to natural disasters has been exposed in recent years. The security implications of these disasters, such as the 2004 tsunami, have been compounded by the lack of infrastructure and capacity for crisis management across these states. These challenges are common across the region and can potentially throw up complex crises far beyond the capacity of any single littoral state to manage. From a naval perspective, these non-traditional threats are in addition to the realities of state-on-state security risks, thus increasing the demand for naval forces to possess versatility in capabilities and operations. [Continued in full version ] Aircraft carriers in the 21st century A strike-capable aircraft carrier - seen by some as perhaps the ultimate symbol of naval and, indeed, national power - also has the operational flexibility to support a range of other tasks. For example, the USN's Nimitz-class nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln has conducted combat air operations in the Indian Ocean and Gulf region over Afghanistan, Iraq, and Somalia; it also led the relief operation following the 2004 tsunami when access from land to many remote areas of the region was impossible. The complex strategic challenges in the Indian Ocean region suggest that competition and co-operation will develop as parallel strategic tracks in the region's maritime security balance. Furthermore, China's attempts to forge stronger strategic bonds with a number of Indian Ocean region littoral states may result in geopolitical jockeying amongst other maritime powers with interests in the region, such as India and United States and its NATO allies. These strategic questions may see the aircraft carrier gain increasing salience in the Indian Ocean in the 21st century. Reflecting the blend of military and diplomatic factors that shape the Indian Ocean security balance, today's aircraft carrier is a formidable platform providing navies and their parent nations with the capability to exercise a vast array of military and diplomatic options at sea and ashore. Article 1 Page 2 of 13

Aircraft carriers in service and in build. (IHS) 1400826 Article 1 Page 3 of 13

At the end of the Second World War, only four navies - Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States - were carrier-operating navies, although the total number operated between them was more than 150. Today, a larger number of carrier navies - Brazil, China, France, India, Italy, Russia, Spain, and the United States - have strike-capable carriers in service (as well as in build), but there are now only 33 vessels between them. The United Kingdom will re-join this elite club from 2017 with the commissioning of two Queen Elizabeth-class vessels. [Continued in full version ] A US Navy F-35C aircraft performs a first Electro-Magnetic Aircraft Launch System (EMALS) launch using the land-based prototype at Joint Base McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst, New Jersey, on 18 November 2011. Offering improved performance, fitting EMALS to US carriers could deliver a step-change in capability. (US Navy) 1448246 Indian Ocean carrier operations The Indian Ocean is the only ocean where many of the major carrier-operating navies have been present in recent years. This list includes France, India, Italy, the United States, and the United Kingdom. It is expected that China will be the next name added. It is therefore likely that the employment of carriers in the Indian Ocean, against the backdrop of the region's emerging state and non-state security challenges, will help to shape doctrinal frameworks for wider carrier operations in the 21st century. While strike operations remain the primary focus, the broadening requirements and the flexibility of large deck carriers raises the question of to what extent wider attributes, including supporting maritime security missions such as HADR, will gain increased focus. Article 1 Page 4 of 13

The People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) aircraft carrier Liaoning, seen here at Dalian shipyard on 25 September 2012 during its commissioning process. (Press Association Images) 1430922 Liaoning, the former Ukrainian carrier Varyag, was commissioned into the PLAN in September 2012, and is a platform that will help the service transition into a carrier-capable navy. This is part of plans to introduce a force of several carriers by the 2020s, to enable one to be maintained at sea at all times. Some reports have suggested China is already building a second carrier and may have as many as four by 2020. Indeed, February 2015 saw UK newspaper The Guardian report that Chinese web discussions and images of a second carrier in build had been deleted. The continued deployment since 2008 of a PLAN naval escort fleet off Somalia to support counter-piracy operations is indicative of China's determination to maintain a presence in the Indian Ocean. While port visits or counter-piracy patrols could be considered routine operations for the PLAN, recent reports that the Type 039 Song-class diesel-electric submarine Great Wall, accompanied by a support vessel, called at Sri Lanka's Colombo International Container Terminal in September 2014 appear less so. Regular submarine deployments to the Indian Ocean may mark the next step in the PLAN's regional deployment strategy. This could also potentially presage the deployment of a carrier task force. In January 2015, IHS Jane's reported that a Chinese Ministry of National Defense (MND) spokesman had alluded to Beijing sending a broader range of ships to the Indian Ocean: "In the future, the Chinese military will send different kinds of naval ships to take part in the naval escort mission in accordance with the situation and the requirement to fulfil the task," said Senior Colonel Yang Yujun. Article 1 Page 5 of 13

From top: China's People's Liberation Army Navy ships the Type 052C Luyang II-class guided-missile destroyer Haikou, the Type 903 Fuchi-class auxiliary vessel Weishan Hu, and the Type 052B Luyang I-class guided-missile destroyer Guangzhou, sailing together. Deploying in December 2008, these vessels made up the PLAN's first naval escort fleet contributing to the international counter-piracy campaign off Somalia. (Ships of the World) 1305275 When viewed in the context of Chinese maritime engagement with Indian Ocean littoral states (including Bangladesh, Mauritius, Pakistan, the Seychelles, and Sri Lanka) and with the 2013 unveiling of the New Maritime Silk Road (NMSR) concept seeking to establish a secure network of global SLOCs, the above developments also give rise to speculation that Chinese naval basing presence in the Indian Ocean is almost inevitable. The Seychelles is considered by some to be a more likely location than others, notably given China's keen interest in forging long-term strategic ties with the island nation. At the peak of the Cold War the Soviet Navy was operating out of an anchorage - indeed, a very austere facility - off Socotra Island in the Indian Ocean. Today, the West's three major naval powers - France, the United Kingdom, and the United States - are all in the process of increasing their basing presence in the Gulf. As the PLAN achieves greater success and confidence in carrier operations, it is perhaps more likely that Liaoning will appear in the region. A PLAN carrier task force in the Indian Ocean could support a number of tasks, including functioning as a command platform for HADR missions, supporting maritime security tasks, or providing trade protection along the NMSR. Thailand's carrier Chakri Naruebet rarely puts to sea, and it is understood that its aircraft have been decommissioned. Yet, should the carrier be readied at any point for operations (it has been reported that the carrier recently received a new combat management system and 3-D radar), a platform of such size and inherent flexibility could be used to support HADR and wider maritime security missions in the Andaman Sea and the Gulf of Thailand. India is the largest resident maritime power in the Indian Ocean, and has been operating carriers since 1961. During the 1971 war with Pakistan, the first Indian Navy carrier named INS Vikrant was employed to conduct limited sea control operations in the Bay of Bengal. Article 1 Page 6 of 13

India's modified Kiev-class aircraft carrier INS Vikramaditya and Centaur-class aircraft carrier INS Viraat, flanked by other Indian Navy ships, transit the Arabian Sea in January 2014 en route to Vikramaditya's home port of INS Kadamba, southwestern India. (Indian Navy) 1525793 In terms of India's current carrier capability, a number of key developments are under way. The Indian Navy's retrofitted Kiev-class carrier INS Vikramaditya reached its home base of INS Kadamba on India's southwestern coast on 7 January 2014. Vikramaditya has recently commenced operational deployment with its MiG 29 (Fulcrum D) fighter group embarked. Vikramaditya joins the recently refitted INS Viraat (ex- Hermes Centaur class). The world's oldest operational carrier at 54 years, Viraat entered Indian Navy service in 1987 (having first been commissioned in 1959 with the UK Royal Navy [RN]). The vessel will be replaced around 2018 by the Project 71 future INS Vikrant, a 40,000-tonne indigenous carrier that is under construction at Cochin Shipyard in Kochi, Kerala State. [Continued in full version ] Article 1 Page 7 of 13

The French Navy's nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, pictured sailing from its home base of Toulon in January 2015 for deployment to the Mediterranean, Indian Ocean, and Gulf regions. (French Navy) 1628645 NATO carriers The withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan marks the culmination of a 12-year mission: the longest in the alliance's 64-year history. During the campaign, alliance forces arguably reached a peak in combined operational efficiency. Post-Afghanistan, one of the key challenges for NATO is maintaining this level of interoperability and to cater for future contingencies including high-intensity, complex operations. In this context, the Indian Ocean region is one likely area of continued alliance focus, despite growing naval activity in regions closer to NATO's home, such as the Baltic and Mediterranean seas. Within NATO's Allied Maritime Command (AMC), there is recognition that future threat scenarios will demand a greater focus on the maritime dimension, one that arguably had been overshadowed by land campaigns in the Balkans, Afghanistan, and Iraq. To support alliance requirements for meeting a wider range of contingencies post-afghanistan, including a renewed focus on high-intensity operations, AMC is focusing on three broad strategies: - Develop the alliance's standing naval forces to augment their support for NATO Response Force (NRF) and Immediate Reaction Force (IRF) responsibilities. - Affiliate national task groups such as the UK Response Force Task Group (RFTG) and the USN Carrier Strike Groups (CSGs) with the planned Combined Joint Expeditionary Force (CJEF), to support maritime contingency requirements. - Enhance collective training, focusing particularly on affiliations of national task groups, across NATO's regions of interest. Despite the increasing instability around European waters, NATO maintains a strong focus on the Indian Ocean. In recent years, the alliance's maritime operations in the region have been centred around the Operation 'Ocean Shield' counter-piracy campaign. However, NATO is committed to graduating to more Article 1 Page 8 of 13

complex levels of engagement including with the US Fifth Fleet, and its naval forces continue to engage at sea with those of the Fifth Fleet-led Combined Maritime Force. Talking to IHS Jane's in 2014, NATO AMC Commander Vice Admiral Peter Hudson said that the Indian Ocean remains one of the areas of strategic interest for the alliance, and an area for which it needs an appropriate posture, configuration, and command-and-control approach so that it is agile and responsive enough to react as required. He added that the nature of NATO's focus in the Indian Ocean reflects the requirements of the Alliance Maritime Strategy in terms of supporting maritime security operations, providing contingency planning, and ensuring Freedom of Navigation. Currently, all the NATO carrier-operating navies, including France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and the United States, are participating in the UK-conceived Carrier Group Interoperability Initiative. The primary aim is to enhance interoperability in multinational carrier task group operations. Under a bilateral defence accord signed in November 2010, France and the United Kingdom aim to have, by the early 2020s, the ability to deploy an integrated carrier task group incorporating assets owned by both countries. The two countries are also in the process of creating a CJEF by 2016. Article 1 Page 9 of 13

The United Kingdom's first-of-class carrier Queen Elizabeth, leaving dock at the Rosyth Shipyard, Scotland, in July 2014. Given the UK's regular deployments of carriers to the Indian Ocean in recent times, it remains to be seen if a similar deployment pattern is followed with the new carriers. (BAE Systems) 1400814 It is possible that a future NATO contingency force could be comprised of a multinational carrier task force, and French Navy and RN assets likely would be integral to this. Both navies have maintained an almost permanent presence in the Indian Ocean, and prior to the Afghanistan campaign the UK's intention had been to deploy its Invincible-class CVS carriers East of Suez on a regular, perhaps annual, basis. Whether this deployment pattern can be read as any kind of future guide, it will be interesting to see when the UK's lead carrier Queen Elizabeth heads through Suez for the first time. [Continued in full version ] Conclusion Advances in defence technology have seen the aircraft carrier evolve into a more potent and versatile asset than ever before. The rising popularity of the aircraft carrier among the leading naval powers as a 'platform of choice' is testimony to this. While the carrier has been traditionally used in a power projection and/or sea control role, emerging threats and challenges demand renewed focus and thinking on conventional doctrines. Meanwhile, new strategic risks in the Indian Ocean and elsewhere are emerging at the same time as new carrier-based technological developments, such as the evolution of unmanned flight technology and EMALS - which could be potential 'game changers' in carrier employment. With the increasing focus in the 21st century on using navies to support diplomatic and constabulary roles, the employment of carriers to support forward presence, power projection, and maritime security requirements may well increase in the Indian Ocean region. With the majority of the world's carrier navies present there, it may be that the Indian Ocean region will emerge as a prominent 'test bed' for carrier operations in the 21st century, allowing navies to try out new technologies, concepts of operations, and constructs for co-operation. Shishir Upadhyaya is a retired Indian Navy officer, and is Director for Aerospace, Defence, and Security in the IHS South Asia team Copyright IHS Global Limited, 2015 For the full version and more content: IHS Jane's Defence Industry and Markets Intelligence Centre This analysis is taken from IHS Jane s Defence Industry & Markets Intelligence Centre, which provides world-leading analysis of commercial, industrial and technological defence developments, budget and programme forecasts, and insight into new and emerging defence markets around the world. IHS defence industry and markets news and analysis is also available within IHS Jane s Navy International. To learn more and to subscribe to IHS Jane s Navy International online, offline or print visit http://magazines.ihs.com/. For advertising solutions contact the IHS Jane s Advertising team Article 1 Page 10 of 13

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