Jane's Defence Weekly The Cold Thaw [Content preview Subscribe to IHS Jane s Defence Weekly for full article] As Arctic sea ice retreats in the face of global warming, political and military activity among the key stakeholders of the circumpolar north is heating up as each country vies for access to new commercial shipping lands and vast energy reserves while grappling with emerging security issues. Dylan Lee Lehrke reports on recent developments A platoon from the 4th Canadian Division's Domestic Response Company hone their skills in winter warfare during Exercise 'Trillium Response 2014' in Rankin Inlet, Nunavut, Canada, on 18 February. (Canadian DND) 1526273 While scientists disagree on whether climate change can be reversed, the countries of the circumpolar north are not taking any chances. With Arctic sea ice in retreat and tundra thawing, the Page 1 of 11
governments are jockeying for position and the armed forces are beginning to adapt for operations in a warmed world. The final months of 2013 saw a period of particularly intense political and military activity on the Arctic front. In November, the US Department of Defence (DoD) released its first ever Arctic Strategy, which calls for the evolution of the country's military infrastructure and capabilities in the region. The ensuing month, Canada announced that its extended continental shelf claim may reach all the way to the North Pole. Only days later Russia moved forward its plan to create an Arctic Group of Forces from 2020 to 2014. Opening sea lanes According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, perennial (multi-year) sea ice in the Arctic has diminished at an average rate of between 9.4 and 13.6% per decade. As a result the ice extent at the summer minimum in 2012 stood at a record low. It is now projected that between 2030 and 2040 enough of the Arctic will be open water during late summer so as to allow for reliable transpolar crossings. Already the current routes above the Arctic Circle are seeing longer average navigable seasons, and along with this, an increase in commercial shipping. Most of this activity has been along the Northern Sea Route (NSR), which runs along Russia's north coast. In 2013, 71 vessels transited the full length of the NSR, up from 46 in 2012. The US Office of Naval Intelligence projects that this could increase to 450 vessels by 2025. The Northwest Passage (NWP) through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago is also seeing some activity. Most significantly, in September 2013 Nordic Orion became the first bulk carrier to traverse the NWP. Potential energy wealth The second ancillary benefit of a warmed Arctic is the possibility of increased access to natural resources. The US Geological Survey (USGS) estimates that the Arctic contains about 22% of the world's undiscovered, and technically recoverable oil and natural gas resources. The bulk of these resources - an estimated 84% according to the USGS - are located offshore. As the Arctic ice retreats, the extraction, and transportation of these resources becomes much more feasible. Russia in particular is pushing forward the development of its Arctic resources, and in April 2014 introduced Russian Arctic oil to the global market. The oil was drawn from Gazprom's Prirazlomnoye field in the Pechora Sea, which began pumping in December 2013. The entire oil production process at the field is centred on the world's first ice-resistant oil platform. This was designed with a concrete deflector to protect the rig from ice: an important feature given that the platform is situated in an area that is ice free for only about 110 days a year. Page 2 of 11
Extended continental shelves The potential wealth in the Arctic is motivating a political competition over sovereignty of the seabed. Canada, Denmark, and Russia are seeking to extend their continental shelves under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. These claims are producing considerable tension since all three states assert that the Lomonosov Ridge is an extension of their national shelf. If the UN's Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS) rules in favour of any of them, that state would have the rights to natural resources as far out as 350 n miles from its coast. In 2007 Russia went so far as to have a submarine plant the country's flag on the ocean floor at the North Pole. Russia was also the first to submit a claim to the CLCS, although the commission said it required more research. In late 2013 Canada and Denmark made partial submissions to the CLCS. While the Arctic claims are still pending for both countries, their respective governments have indicated that extensive claims can be expected. Obstacles to growth Despite the promise of new shipping lanes and hydrocarbon deposits, a number of factors are likely to reign in Arctic activity. This is because the costs and risks remain high. Notwithstanding the effects of climate change, ice formations will still be present in the Arctic, and the region will remain prone to extreme weather. This harsh environment can take a heavy toll on equipment and personnel, and increase logistical requirements. To mitigate this, equipment needs to be winterised, employees need to be paid more, additional infrastructure must be built, and a large inventory of spare parts and equipment has to be maintained, all of which cuts into profits. Given these and other factors, a 2013 study on the NSR by IHS Maritime concluded that "the Arctic route is still very much at the experimental stage, and not yet suitable for mass shipping". Arctic operational challenges When USS Periwinkle was selected in 1870 to support one of the first attempts to reach the North Pole, the US Navy (USN) overhauled the ship to ready it for Arctic operations. Rechristened USS Polaris, the vessel was fitted with oak planking across its ribs, an iron plate over the bow, a powerful new engine, and a propeller that could be raised from the water to avoid ice. However, despite these modifications, the ship had a fatal flaw: its hull was too narrow for ice operations. As a result, what one author calls "the world's first icebreaker" was eventually abandoned on the Greenland coast. The harsh conditions that doomed the Polaris expedition are equally dangerous to military ships today despite modern engineering and technology. Ships in the Arctic are assaulted by a legion of Page 3 of 11
problems that can have serious consequences: lubricants freeze, pipes burst, batteries drain, gaskets deteriorate, and condensation seeps into electronics. Meanwhile, the ice poses a constant risk to propellers, rudders, and sonar domes. This Clausewitzian friction, of course, also affects aviation and land systems. Canada Joint Task Force North (JTFN) is the only permanent Canadian military presence in the Arctic at this time. The task force includes the 1st Canadian Ranger Patrol Group with 1,750 rangers in 60 patrols spread across the Arctic. This force has primarily a patrol and reconnaissance role, with very little combat capability. JTFN also includes one reserve infantry company of The Loyal Edmonton Regiment and the 440 Transport Squadron, which has four De Haviland Twin Otters capable of landing on snow and tundra. Soldiers from the 4th Canadian Division's Domestic Response Company provide firebase support during a practised raid on an enemy position close to Rankin Inlet, Nunavut, Canada, during Exercise 'Trillium Response 2014' on 21 February. The manoeuvres focus on proving the soldiers' ability to fight, move, and communicate in the harsh conditions of the northern winter. (Canadian DND) 1526274 Page 4 of 11
To supplement this small permanent presence, additional land, air, and naval forces are often deployed from the southern latitudes for Arctic sovereignty operations. For example, the Lockheed CP-140 Aurora maritime patrol aircraft of the Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) have the range to reach the Arctic. Other RCAF aircraft, including its F/A-18s, can deploy to the region as well, although they require refuelling to do so. To facilitate deployments the RCAF has four forward operating locations in the Arctic. Meanwhile, Canada's capabilities at sea are somewhat limited. The Royal Canadian Navy (RCN) has no ice-breakers, its surface combatants are not ice-strengthened, and the Victoria-class submarines do not have an under-ice capability. RCN vessels do deploy to the region to assert Canadian sovereignty, but such deployments are limited by weather, seasonal conditions, and restricted to ice-free areas. The RCN's presence in the arctic is also limited by infrastructure. There are no refuelling facilities north of St John's in Newfoundland, and thus RCN vessels cannot easily undertake contingency operations while in the Arctic or stay long on station. Looking ahead, the Canadian Forces are expanding their ability to project and sustain presence north of 60. Four Arctic Response Company Groups, drawn from reserve forces, are being trained, while other units are also seeing more regular training in the north. To support these efforts, an Arctic training centre opened at Resolute Bay in August 2013. The AOPS is a new capability that will provide the RCN with the ability to patrol in the Arctic during navigable seasons in order to assert Canadian sovereignty in the region. (Canadian DND) Page 5 of 11
1526062 United States The US DoD's Arctic Strategy calls for the evolution of infrastructure and capabilities consistent with changing conditions in that part of the world. However, the strategy is based on an assessment that there is a low level of military threat in the Arctic, and it openly acknowledges that the level of ambitions will be contingent on global priorities and fiscal constraints. Currently no USN surface combatants are ice-strengthened and operations in the Arctic are thus limited by both pack and marginal zone ice. The strategy explicitly relies on subsurface and aerial assets to make up for this deficiency in surface capabilities, and provide assured access in the ice zones. The US Navy's Los Angeles-class attack submarine USS Hampton surfaces at Ice Camp Nautilus, Alaska, during Ice Exercise 2014 (ICEX 2014). (USN) 1526270 The USN's submarine fleet is well poised to fulfil this role since it has a long history of operations in the Arctic and its Los Angeles-class boats include Arctic-specific design features. However, according to the Director, Operational Test and Evaluation, Fiscal Year 2013 Annual Report, the new "Virginiaclass submarines provide less Arctic capability than the Seawolf and improved Los Angeles-class submarines". This is in part because they lack a hardened sail, but the boats also suffer from other deficiencies such as excessive condensation. That said, these faults are not debilitating and Virginiaclass submarines routinely deploy to the Arctic in order to build up their capabilities in that domain. Page 6 of 11
Looking ahead, the DoD and the USN in particular are looking to identify and close capability gaps that could adversely affect their ability to operate in the Arctic. Some gaps that have already been pinpointed include limited communications at high latitudes, degraded GPS performance, incomplete domain awareness, and inadequate ice and weather reporting and forecasting. The lack of shore-based infrastructure and ice-capable ships are also recognised as potential issues, given that an episodic surface presence in the Arctic Ocean may be required in the future. Russia Russia has more Arctic land, coastline, and waters than any other nation, and thus is positioned to reap significant benefits from the opening of the region. With this in mind, Moscow is looking to solidify its position as a leading Arctic power - and this includes the enhancement of its north-facing military portfolio. Russian military forces already have a numerical advantage in the Arctic when compared to other national forces. The Northern Fleet, based along the coasts of the Barents and White Seas, is the largest of Russia's five naval fleets. While suffering from under-investment, the fleet remains the backbone of the Russian Navy. On the surface the fleet maintains Russia's only aircraft carrier, Admiral Kuznetsov, a nuclear-powered cruiser, five destroyers, two frigates, and more than two dozen patrol ships. That said, while this fleet has significant experience in Arctic waters, the vessels are not necessarily optimised for ice operations and rely on icebreakers for support. Responding to this capability gap, Russia is planning to procure a new class of Arctic patrol vessels. However, whether funds will be available for this remains to be seen. For now, the bulk of the persistent ice capability is subsurface. The Northern Fleet includes the majority of Russia's ballistic missile submarines, including its new Borey-class boats and 22 attack submarines, although it is likely that not all of these are operational. Meanwhile, the Northern Fleet also projects naval aviation assets into the high Arctic. In February 2013 Russia resumed regular patrol missions over the Arctic, conducting 30 patrols over the course of that year. The patrols are conducted by Tupolev Tu-142 long-range anti-submarine warfare (ASW) and Il-38 medium-range ASW aircraft operating from airbases in the Murmansk and Vologda regions. Denmark Although Denmark proper sits more than 1,000 km (621 miles) south of the Arctic Circle, the kingdom projects significant force above 66 North in order to provide security for its constituent country Greenland. The Royal Danish Navy (RDN) in particular has built a force that is specially designed for operations in the Arctic. The navy's four Thetis-class frigates are ice-strengthened, but the most capable vessels are the two Arctic Patrol Vessels, HDMSKnud Rasmussen, and HDMS Ejnar Mikkelsen, which were Page 7 of 11
commissioned in 2008 and 2009 respectively. In December 2013, the Danish Ministry of Defence announced it had signed a contract with shipbuilder Karstensens Skibsvaerft for a third Knud Rasmussen-class ship, which is expected to be completed in 2017. The Knud Rasmussen class is replacing Denmark's Agdlek-class cutters on a one-for-one basis, and thus only one of the old cutters remains in service. Although this means there is no numerical increase in the RDN fleet, the new vessels are significantly larger and more capable than their predecessors. The 1,720-ton, 72 m ships have a range of 7,050 n miles at 12 kt, and a maximum speed of 17 kt. They have over twice the endurance of the old cutters, allowing the RDN to increase its presence in the Arctic. Denmark's Knud Rasmussen-class patrol boat Ejnar Mikkelsen is one of two 1,720-tonne Arctic vessels used for maritime security tasks in and around Greenland's littoral waters. A contract for a third ship was signed in December 2013. (Royal Danish Navy) 1516299 Page 8 of 11
Norway Norway has long emphasised the geostrategic importance of the Arctic. Historically this was because defence of the region was a cornerstone of NATO's strategy against the Soviet Union in the event of war. Today the area's significance is based on its wealth of natural resources. The government of Jens Stoltenberg considered the Arctic as "Norway's most important strategic target area", and the new government, which took power in October 2013, has maintained this priority. Norwegian Leopard 2A4 MBTs battle extreme weather conditions in northern Norway during Exercise 'Cold Response 2014'. (Norwegian Armed Forces) 1526272 The Royal Norwegian Air Force (RNoAF) currently fields two F-16 fighter squadrons at Bodø Air Base, which sits at 67 North. These squadrons maintain a quick-reaction alert (QRA) capability able to respond to Russian military aircraft that approach Norwegian airspace. However, Bodø Air Base is slated to be closed once the F-16 goes out of service and is replaced by the Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. At that time, the majority of the RNoAF's combat aircraft will be based at Ørland Air Base in central Norway, although a new QRA base for the F-35s will be established at Evenes at 68 North. On land, Norway announced in 2012 that it would establish an Arctic Battalion. However, this will not be a new unit. Instead, the Norwegian Army is restructuring and re-equipping an existing motorised infantry unit, the 2nd Battalion at Skjold, so it can better operate in the Arctic. Meanwhile, the only other army unit in the Arctic is an armoured battalion stationed at Setermoen. Page 9 of 11
Although it trains for cold-weather operations, as a heavy unit it is not technically optimised for the Arctic. Threat of conflict The potential wealth of resources and apparent increase in militarisation in the Arctic has led to heavy speculation of an impending circumpolar conflict. For at least a decade, a number of often pun-laded arguments have been made about the Arctic 'heating up' or descending into a 'cold war'. In 2008, a highly cited article by Scott Borgerson in Foreign Affairs warned that the competition to control resources made it possible that "the Arctic could descend into armed conflict". In 2010 the same message was delivered, but this time by then NATO supreme allied commander Europe Admiral James Stavridis. However, while there is significant evidence that competition over high-value natural resources can give rise to tensions and conflict, the prospects of violence over hydrocarbon deposits in the Arctic is minimal. According to Alisa Lockwood, Head of Europe/CIS Analysis at IHS Country Risk: "Territorial disputes in the Arctic are likely to be resolved peacefully, as most of the recoverable hydrocarbon resources are located within uncontested exclusive economic zones." Norwegian Leopard 2 main battle tanks negotiate extreme weather conditions at the Setermoen Page 10 of 11
firing range in northern Norway during Exercise 'Cold Response 2014'. (Norwegian Armed Forces) 1526271 Copyright IHS Global Limited, 2014 For the full version and more content: IHS Jane's Defence Industry and Markets Intelligence Centre This analysis is taken from IHS Jane s Defence Industry & Markets Intelligence Centre, which provides world-leading analysis of commercial, industrial and technological defence developments, budget and programme forecasts, and insight into new and emerging defence markets around the world. IHS defence industry and markets news and analysis is also available within IHS Jane s Defence Weekly. To learn more and to subscribe to IHS Jane s Defence Weekly online, offline or print visit http://magazines.ihs.com/. For advertising solutions contact the IHS Jane s Advertising team Page 11 of 11