Priorities Committee Meeting_Sep29_2015 STRATEGIC INITIATIVE AND UPDATE Colchester Growth Management Strategy Update Report Purpose To provide the Priorities Committee with an update on the Colchester Growth Management Strategy, specifically to present the results of the fiscal impact analysis of the three initial design concepts, as well as the draft community design concept. Council History March 6, 2007 Council approved amendments to the Municipal Development Plan Bylaw 1-2007. May 22, 2007 Council passed Bylaw 1-2007, the Municipal Development Plan. March 11, 2010 Capital Region Growth Plan was adopted by Province. July 17, 2012 Council directed Administration to bring back a Terms of Reference, a revised Growth Management Strategy and timeline. October 23, 2012 Council directed Administration to initiate a Growth Management Strategy and timeline for the Urban Reserve Area (Bremner). November 20, 2012 Council directed Administration to commence preparation of the Growth Management Strategy for the Colchester Urban/Rural Transition Policy Area following completion of the Bremner Urban Reserve Growth Management Strategy. September 23, 2014 Council accepted the Bremner Growth Management Strategy as information. March 31, 2015 Council received an update on the Colchester Growth Management Strategy process. July 07, 2015 - Council received an update on the Colchester Growth Management Strategy. Council directed Administration to proceed with Part 2 Optional Work, being the Recommended Concept and Policy Direction, and complete the Colchester Growth Management Strategy. Strategic Plan Priority Areas Economy: The Growth Management Strategy process will include an assessment of growth options using the Fiscal Impact Model. Governance: The public engagement and communications plan for the Growth Management Strategy are aimed to create an inclusive process that engages residents, businesses, and affected landowners. Social: The Growth Management Strategy process assesses the social impacts of various growth options and reflects the objectives of the Social Sustainability Framework. Growth management decisions have implications for future community affordability and provision of housing. Culture: The Growth Management Strategy will include principles and goals to guide the creation of a vibrant and creative community in the development area. Author: Danika Dudzik, Planning and Development Services Page 1 of 2 Director: Stacy Fedechko, Planning and Development Services Associate Commissioner: Kevin Glebe, Infrastructure and Planning Services Lead Department: Planning and Development Services
Environment: The Growth Management Strategy process will assess the environmental impacts of various growth options and reflects the objectives of the Environmental Sustainability Framework. Other Impacts Policy: Municipal Development Plan (MDP) 1-2007, Policy 17.41 requires a Growth Management Strategy and associated servicing studies to be completed and endorsed by Council prior to the acceptance of new applications for Area Concept Plans, Area Structure Plans, rezoning or subdivisions within the boundaries of the Rural/ Urban Transition Policy Area (Colchester Growth Area). Legislative/Legal: n/a Interdepartmental: Multiple Strathcona County departments will be involved in the development of the Growth Management Strategy through an inter-departmental Technical Advisory Committee. Summary This presentation will provide the Priorities Committee with information from the Colchester Transportation Analysis as well as from the Fiscal Impact Analysis (FIA) of the three initial design concepts. It will also include the draft community design concept which was informed by the vision and principles, the three initial design concepts and the FIA. The three initial design concepts proposed densities of 30 du/nrha, 35 du/nrha and 40 du/nrha, which combined with the transportation capacities, generated population estimates of 28,700 people, 39,600 people, and 51,000 people, respectively. The FIA, transportation analysis, and elements from each of the three community design concepts have informed the draft community design concept. The draft community design concept yields a population of 38,600 people with a density of 31 du/nrha. The information from the transportation analysis, the three initial design concepts, and draft community design concept will be shared with the public at an open house on October 1, 2015 and further feedback will be received from the public at that time. This presentation and the open house mark the end of Phase 2 The Assessment Phase of the Colchester Growth Management Strategy process. Phase 3 will consist of the final recommended concept and set of key policy directions. The final phase, Phase 4, will consist of the drafting and internal review of the Colchester Growth Management Strategy. The final Colchester Growth Management Strategy will be presented to Council for consideration in January 2016. Communication Plan A range of stakeholders such as landowners, developers, community groups, school boards, Alberta Transportation, EPCOR, as well as the general public, will be consulted in the development of the strategy. Similar to Bremner, the County will utilize workbooks, open houses, landowner meetings, stakeholder interviews, background and technical papers, Citizen Bulletins and the County website to engage these groups. Newspaper advertisements and individual mail outs will be used to invite landowners and the public to planned open houses and landowner meetings. Enclosure 1 Colchester Growth Management Strategy PowerPoint Author: Danika Dudzik, Planning and Development Services Page 2 of 2 Director: Stacy Fedechko, Planning and Development Services Associate Commissioner: Kevin Glebe, Infrastructure and Planning Services Lead Department: Planning and Development Services
ENCLOSURE 1 Colchester Growth Management Strategy Priorities Committee September 29, 2015
Agenda 1. Transportation Analysis 2. Three Initial Concepts 3. FIA on Three Concepts 4. Draft Community Design Concept 5. Next Steps 9/22/2015 2
Colchester Process 9/22/2015 3
Transportation Scenario 1: 3 intersections Max Population: 28,000 4
Transportation Scenario 2: 5 intersections Max Population: 38,000 5
Transportation Scenario 3: 3 interchanges Max Population: 53,500 6
Transportation Scenario 4: 2 intersections & 1 interchange Max Population: 38,000 7
Transportation Analysis - Conclusion The Colchester concepts will explore transportation scenarios 1-3 Scenario 4 accommodates the same population as Scenario 2 but at greater cost and disruption to surrounding areas and so does not merit further study Concept Transportation Scenario Population A 1 Approx. 28,000 B 2 Approx. 38,000 C 3 Approx. 53,000 8
The technical analysis of the site identified some challenges 9
The concepts explore a number of common elements Retain the Provincial land, Sherwood Park Natural Area, and Deermound Dog Park Maintain existing country residential subdivisions Adopt a 250m setback on either side of pipelines where adjacent to residential uses to be used as green corridors The primary entry/exit to Colchester will be from Township Road 522 Locate multiple mixed-use centres with a primary centre near Gray s Lake Provide for employment lands on Highway 14 10
The concepts also contain unique/differing elements Population and density (which impacts number of schools and community centre sizes and programming) Transportation configuration on Township Road 522 Primary street network and types of streets Amount of undeveloped land Size and location of mixed-use centres Amount of employment land Presence and extent of new country residential 11
Comparing the Concepts A: Small Town Centre 30 du/nrha Population 28,700 2,700 jobs 35,660 sq.m. of Retail GFA 3 intersections Buffering of existing subdivisions with CR Large portion of undeveloped land B: Intermediate Town Centre 35 du/nrha Population 39,600 7,200 jobs 98,830 sq.m. of Retail GFA 5 intersections Buffering of existing subdivisions with CR Small portion of undeveloped land C: Large Town Centre 40 du/nrha Population 51,000 4,900 jobs 97,320 sq.m. of Retail GFA 3 interchanges No new CR No undeveloped land
Elements for incorporation in the Community Design Concept A: Small Town Centre B: Intermediate Town Centre C: Large Town Centre
Elements for incorporation in the Community Design Concept A: Small Town Centre Buffering of existing subdivisions with CR Major retail at Twp. Rd. 522 and Range Road 232 B: Intermediate Town Centre 5 intersections Location of mixed-use centres Large business park C: Large Town Centre No undeveloped land
Fiscal Impact Assessment Document: 5730321 15
Fiscal Impact Model Residential Assessment Commercial Assessment User Fees REVENUE Growth Soft Capital Costs Dept. Operating Costs Capital Rehab EXPENSE If the revenue is greater, the Fiscal Impact is positive. If the expenses are greater, the Fiscal Impact is negative. Document: 5730321 16
FIM Basic Inputs Current operating costs by department Soft capital costs and associated operating expenses (tax supported) - Indoor and outdoor recreation facilities - Civic/centres and cultural building - Fire and police stations - County administration building and works facilities - Transit facilities Hard capital costs (developer supported): roads, water, sewers, etc. Annual capital programs: upgrades, maintenance, equipment etc. (tax supported) 17
Population Growth 170,000 Population 160,000 150,000 140,000 130,000 120,000 110,000 Colchester starts (2020) With Colchester A With Colchester B With Colchester C 100,000 90,000 80,000 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 2053 Year Dev't Scenario: Colchester 18 Document: 5730321
Total Assessment Value 65,000,000 Assessment ($000) 60,000,000 55,000,000 50,000,000 45,000,000 40,000,000 With Colchester A With Colchester B With Colchester C 35,000,000 30,000,000 25,000,000 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 2053 Year Dev't Scenario: Colchester 19 Document: 5730321
Operating Expenses 525,000,000 Operating Expenditures 475,000,000 425,000,000 375,000,000 325,000,000 With Colchester A With Colchester B With Colchester C 275,000,000 225,000,000 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 2053 Year Dev't Scenario: Colchester 20 Document: 5730321
Municipal Tax Rates - Residential Municipal Tax Rates Residential 4.900 4.700 Concept A: 2042 build out Average tax rate = 4.240 4.500 4.300 4.100 3.900 3.700 Concept B: 2048 build out Average tax rate = 4.230 Concept C: 2053 build out Average tax rate = 4.326 3.500 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 2053 Year With Colchester A With Colchester B With Colchester C Document: 5730321 21
Overall Fiscal Impact Findings Overall, the fiscal impacts of each concept are similar, with Concept B having the best long-term impact. Municipal tax rates are projected to vary by only 1.1% across the options. County assessment should keep pace with the added costs from Colchester, assuming continued industrial growth. Colchester s fiscal impact will be very similar to the fiscal impacts experienced now in the County for urban growth. Document: 5730321 22
Draft Community Design Concept Existing Protected Areas and Country Residential
Draft Community Design Concept Municipal/ Environmental Reserves and Pipeline Corridors
Draft Community Design Concept Primary Road Network
Draft Community Design Concept Mixed-Use Centres, Major Retail Area
Draft Community Design Concept Medium Density, Low Density and Country Residential Neighbourhoods, Schools, Community Centres
Draft Community Design Concept Business Park
Draft Community Design Concept Yields - Population 38,600-14,800 units - 31 du/nrha - 4,600 jobs - 56,700 sq.m. of Retail/Office GFA
Next Steps Landowners Meeting/Open House September 30 October 1 Finalize Recommended concept October Prepare draft GMS policy directions October/November Landowners Meeting/Open House November 25-26 Circulation of draft GMS early December Finalize GMS January 2016