N A T I O N A L N U C L E A R S E C U R I T Y A D M I N I S T R A T I O N O F F I C E O F D E F E N S E P R O G R A M S Nuclear Weapon Stockpile Management Information Presentation to: American Association for the Advancement of Science Dr. Donald Cook Deputy Administrator for Defense Programs National Nuclear Security Administration 10 November 2011
Overview Stockpile Management Requirements National Policy Production & Planning Directive Nuclear Security Enterprise Directed Work products Limited Life Component Exchange Tritium supply and Component Production Life Extension Program (LEP) refurbishments Dismantlement work Challenges and Opportunities Predictive Capability Framework Component Maturation Framework LEP phase approach 2
National Strategic Policy for Nuclear Weapons has been Clearly Formulated The United States will take concrete steps towards a world without nuclear weapons... Make no mistake: As long as these weapons exist, the United States will maintain a safe, secure and effective arsenal to deter any adversary, and guarantee that defense to our allies... President Obama, April 5, 2009 Prague, Czech Republic Conduct research and development on a broad range of safety, security, reliability, and control methods and devices for nuclear warheads and weapon systems, including use control, and delay and denial capabilities. As a longterm goal, pursue technologies that render the unauthorized use of U.S. nuclear weapons impossible without their remanufacture. National Security Presidential Directive/NSPD-28 3
National Strategic Policy for Nuclear Weapons has been Clearly Formulated The NPR stated the following as priorities, among others: providing annual stockpile assessments through weapons surveillance. funding fully the ongoing LEP for the W76 submarine-based warhead and the LEP study and follow-on activities for the B61 bomb initiating a study of LEP options for the W78 ICBM warhead, including the possibility of using the resulting warhead also on SLBMs to reduce the number of warhead types the science, technology and engineering base, vital for stockpile stewardship as well as providing insights for non-proliferation, must be strengthened Department of Defense, Nuclear Posture Review, April 2010 T 4
Nuclear Security Enterprise Sites National Laboratories and Test Site Production Complex Sandia Nat l Laboratories NM and CA Sites Systems engineering, neutron generators, and non-nuclear component design Nevada National Security Site Nevada Experimental site and subcritical nuclear material tests Pantex Plant Amarillo, Texas Weapons assembly/disassembly Kansas City Plant Kansas City, Missouri Nonnuclear manufacturing/ Procurement Los Alamos Nat l Laboratory Los Alamos, New Mexico Nuclear design lab and Pu Sustainment (B61, W76, W78, W88) Lawrence Livermore Nat l Laboratory Livermore, California Nuclear design lab (W80, W87, B83) Y-12 National Security Complex Oak Ridge, Tennessee Uranium operations Savannah River Site Aiken, South Carolina Tritium operations 5
Shared Nuclear Deterrence Responsibilities with DoD Establish military requirements Design, develop, test, and produce delivery system Operate complete nuclear weapons system Secure and maintain nuclear weapons Train personnel and plan for employment Maintain safety, security and reliability of the stockpile Research and develop nuclear weapon science, technology and engineering Support stockpile levels Validate warhead safety and assess reliability Produce and manage nuclear materials 6
Today s Nuclear Stockpile and Delivery Systems B61-11, W80-1, B83-1 W80-1 B61-7/11, B83-1 B-2A B-52 W76-0/1, W88 B61-3/4/10 W78, W87 F-15E D5 F-16 MM III Both must be transformed to meet tomorrow s priorities 7
Bombs and Cruise Missiles Description B61-3/-4/-10 B61-7/-11 B83 W80-1 Non-strategic bomb Strategic bomb Strategic bomb Air launched cruise missile Primary Use Air to surface Air to surface Air to surface Air to surface Delivery System F-15E, F-16, PA200, F-35 B-2 B-2, B-52 B-52 Service Air Force Air Force Air Force Air Force Date Entered Service 10/79 (-3), 8/79 (-4) 8/90 (-10) 9/85 (-7), 11/97(-11) 9/83 2/82 Laboratory LANL & Sandia LANL & Sandia LLNL & Sandia LLNL & Sandia 8
Ballistic Missiles W76 W78 W87 W88 Description SLBM ICBM ICBM SLBM Primary Use Underwater to surface Surface to surface Surface to surface Underwater to surface Delivery System Trident II (D-5) Minuteman III Minuteman III Trident II (D-5) Service Navy Air Force Air Force Navy Date Entered Service 11/78 9/79 7/86 6/89 Laboratory LANL & Sandia LANL & Sandia LLNL & Sandia LANL & Sandia 9
The Stockpile Stewardship and Management Plan Charts the Development of Advanced Science and Technology Required for Weapons Sustainment Key elements of Stockpile Stewardship and Management Plan (SSMP): Assessments and Analysis Advanced computational models of all aspects of weapons operation In-depth evaluation of components and materials Analysis of new production methods Surveillance Sustainment (LLCEs, LEPs) Proactive Planning (SSMP/PCF/CMF) High resolution CT radiographs of pits Advanced spectroscopic analysis of gases Replacement of limited life components (LLCE) Modern technology employed as indicated by analysis Advanced science and technology employed in complete Life Extension Program (LEP) for each system. Predictive Capability and Component Maturation (PCF &CMF) planning methodologies define science and technology requirements SSMP charts new infrastructure and capability requirements 10
Limited Life Components A Limited Life Component (LLC) is a component, used in a nuclear weapon, that decays with age and must be replaced on a periodic basis Tritium Reservoirs (LANL/SNL/KCP/SRS) Gas Generators Neutron Generators (SNL) Radio-isotopic Thermoelectric 11
LLC Production Rates Production Run W76-0,1 W78 W87 B83 W80-1 W88 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 B61 Large Ferro Electric NG In production Electronic NG In development Quantities TPBARS Neutron Generators Gas Transfer Systems Small Ferro Electric NG In development - First production unit (FPU) FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 544 544 544 1104 1504 1696 696 724 540 540 540 640 640 640 640 640 1024 427 594 658 788 675 907 1004 1027 865 TPBARS produced in 18 month cycles at Watts Bar, TVA 12
Limited Life Component Exchange Field Refurbishments (Beyond Tritium Requirements) Minor Refurbishments at Pantex Phase 6.X Process Major Activities Major Life Extension Programs at Pantex & Y-12 Stockpile Life Extension Program (SLEP) Plans Fiscal Year 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile Warhead (W76) Stockpile Life Extension Programs Nuclear Explosive Package (NEP) / Arming, Fuzing, and Firing (AF&F) Assembly Tactical/ Strategic Bomb LEP (B61-3/4/7/10) 6.2-6.2A 6.3-6.5 NEP, AF&F, & Surety (Pending Approval) Intercontinental Ballistic Missile Warhead (W78) 6.1 6.2-6.2A 6.3-6.5 NEP, AF&F, & Surety (Pending Approval) (continue production of additional hedge warheads)* Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile Warhead (W88) 6.2-6.5 (Pending W78-LEP Warhead Analyses) NEP & Surety (Pending Approval) Cruise Missile Warhead (W80-1) Intercontinental Ballistic Missile Warhead (W87) 6.1 6.2-6.2A 6.3-6.5 **Evaluation underway on impacts of replacement cruise missile NEP, AF&F, & Surety (Pending Approval) 6.1 6.2-6.2A 6.3-6.5 Air Delivered Bomb (B61-11/B83-1) B83-1 NG & GTS Authorized Studies & Engineering Field Refurbishments at DoD Facilities W80-1 NG LEGEND W87 NG ( ) W88 NG & AF&F B61-3/4/10 B61-11 (SRM) (NG) Full-Scale Production (LEPs) Full-Scale Production (Minor) W87 (GTS) Drivers are inside boxes As of January 24, 2011 Notes * Some hedge warheads are built during the FY 2021-2024 timeframe **The Air Force is leading an Analysis of Alternatives Modernizing (AoA) for the future of long the range stand-off Stockpile vehicles (Ref. Section 1251 Report to Congress, November 2010) Dates shown burgundy represent deliveries of given components and/or refurbishments to the Department of Defense (DoD) 13
W76 Life Extension Program FY 2012 FY 2018 Objectives Continue ongoing assessment and certification activities Conduct REST and Stockpile surveillance activities Accomplish safety studies necessary to maintain production and surveillance activities Monitor number of SFIs and aging effects First system to implement Phase 6.X process Implement improved project management and controls Improve weapon safety and reliability Eliminate quality and reliability watch list items Improve physics margin Eliminate safety soft spots Reduce future maintenance and future weapon exposure Continue W76 LEP production and deliver completed W76-1s to the Department of the Navy D-5 Missile SLBM Flight Test 14
B61 Life Extension Program FY 2012 FY 2017 Objectives Qualify and certify the refurbished B61 for an additional lifetime with the FPU in FY 2017 Ensure modern and legacy aircraft compatibility Integrate new Air Force delivery capability Consolidate (4) B61 modifications into a single bomb variant Improve weapon safety, use control and reliability Implement improved project management & controls Reduce special nuclear material Reduce maintenance and weapon exposure Improve physics margin Eliminate safety soft spots B61 Full Scope LEP 15
LEP Planning Framework Requirements and Drivers Prioritizing and Planning Investment Decision Technology Development, Certification, and Component Maturation Technology Down- Select and Stockpile Insertion Science, ASC, ICF, Advanced Certification, Engineering PCF Programmatic and Technical Source Requirements Life Extension Options Engineering, Readiness, Stockpile Services (Development/Production) Production Readiness/ RTBF CMF Stockpile Modernization Stockpile Services and Systems (Advanced Architecture) 16
The Predictive Capability Framework (PCF) Provides a Roadmap for Science Advances Predictive Capability Framework 2015 2020 2006 Surveillance DARHT MESA 2009 Energy Balance B61 Safety Design Options Petaflop Computing 2012 Initial Cond. (early phase) Non-Nuclear Design and Qualification with QMU NIF CEF Neutron Generator Validated Model LANSCE Initial Cond. (late phase) Normal Environment Multi-point Safety Burn-init 3D Abnormal Assessment Flight Performance Adv. Circuit Prediction and Integrated Response 100-200 Petaflop MPS Realistic Environment Burn Boost Secondary Perform. 1 Margin and Uncertainties for Advanced Systems 300-500 Petaflop Secondary Perform. 2 Full Re-Entry Performance End-End Outputs and Total Response Exascale Computing Safety and Security Nuclear Explosive Package Assessment Engineering Assessment Hostile Environments, Output and Effects Experimental and Computation Capabilities 17
The Component Maturation Framework (CMF) Provides a Roadmap for Stockpile Technology Development and Insertion Component Maturation Framework FY 2010 B61-11 NG W87 NG W80-1 NG Legend W87 NG B61 LEP Sub-System W88 Alt Sub-System W78 LEP Sub-System W80-1 GTS W88 NEP Sub-System* LLC Exchange Sub-System Environmental Testing Environmental Testing Environmental Testing B83-1 W80-1 FY 2013 Firing Arming Fuzing Hardware Power Sources Firing Power Sources Hardware NG W88 GTS Secondary/Interstage Case Use Control Power Sources JTA JTA Testers Trainers Testers Trainers JTA FY 2016 B61 LEP Fuzing Arming Fuzing Micro Micro Micro Handling and Rework UPF Technologies Handling and Rework Dates shown are the required dates for achieving TRL7/MRL6 status. *The W88 NEP LEP FPU Date is FY 2025. B61-11 GTS NG W88 NG Handling Gear Handling Gear W88 Alt Primary NDE Equipment FY 2019 Arming Hardware Fuzing Firing Power Sources NG GTS Case W87 GTS Power Sources Use Control Primary Secondary/Interstage Supports/Mounts Shipping Containers W78 LEP Secondary/Interstage Primary Arming, Fuzing, and Firing Limited-Life Components Nuclear Explosives Package Safety, Security and Use Control Diagnostics Facilities Systems Structural September 6, 2011 Working Document 18
Phase 6.x Flow of Science and Technology Deliverables to the LEP process Phase 6.1Study Phase 6.2/2A Feasibility and Cost Study Phase 6.3 Development Engineering Phase 6.4 Production Engineering Phase 6.5 FPU Phase 6.6 Full Rate Production SSMP-PCF, CMF Refurbishment options analyzed (PCF) Determination of component lifetimes (CMF) Acronyms DA=Design Agency FPM=Federal Program Manager PA=Production Agency CMF Component technology and manufacturing development Integration between DAs, PAs, and FPMs PCF Certification and qualification activities Models and simulations of all aspects of weapon performance Supplies computational tools and data to the CMF 19
Paradigm Shift - New Approach Development 15 year touches Leveraging development for one system into the following system Both Deployed Hedge Deployed Hedge Deployed Hedge Production Refurbishing the deployed for the stockpile first (Build A) Use of pre-builds and concurrent builds to better utilize production capacities Both Deployed Hedge Deployed Hedge Deployed Hedge Goal: Shorten Phase 6.2-6.5 by continuously studying systems and components 20
Needs Notional Architecture, Technology and Component Maturation Process Fiscal Year 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 T / S Bomb (B61-3/4/7/10) 6.2-6.2A 6.3-6.5 Build A Continuous Phase 6.1 Activity + Annual Assessment 6.3-6.5 Build B Cruise Missile (W80/LRSO) 6.2A 6.3-6.5 Build A Continuous Phase 6.1 Activity + Annual Assessment SLBM (W76) NEP & AF&F ICBM (W78) 6.2A 6.3-6.5 Build A Continuous Phase 6.1 Activity + Annual Assessment 6.3-6.5 Build B SLBM (W88) 6.3-6.5 AF&F 6.2A 6.3-6.5 Build A Continuous Phase 6.1 Activity + Annual Assessment ICBM (W87) Continuous Phase 6.1 Activity + Annual Assessment 6.2A 6.3-6.5 Architecture, Technology, and Component Maturation Program (Provide Future Architectures, Technologies and Components to Systems at TRL5/MRL6) 21
Dismantlement Program Planned NNSA quantities completed Pantex Dismantlements FY08: 110% (648)* FY09: 117% (356)* FY10: 126% FY11: 120% CSA Dismantlements FY08: 141% FY09: 110% FY10: 110% FY11: 100% *Fact Sheet: Increasing Transparency in the US Nuclear Weapons Stockpile Complete by 2022 the dismantlement of all weapons systems retired prior to 2009. - DOE Strategic Plan, May 2011 NNSA evaluating the feasibility of accelerating dismantlements 22
Major Physical Infrastructure Projects Plutonium Facility-4 (PF-4): Recapitalization will enable pit manufacturing capacity up to 80 pits per year by 2022 Chemistry Metallurgy Research Replacement-Nuclear Facility (CMRR-NF): Construction completed by 2020 PF-4 CMRR-NF - UPF Uranium Processing Facility (UPF): Up to 80 secondaries per year by 2022, construction completed by 2020 Kansas City Responsive Infrastructure, Manufacturing and Sourcing (KCRIMS): New facility supports non-nuclear production, active weapons programs, dismantlement programs and all life extension programs, construction completed by 2012 KCRIMS HE Pressing Facility High Explosive (HE) Pressing Facility: New facility ensures sustained responsiveness for all HE mission-related work with a production capacity from 300 up to 500 hemispheres per year and construction completed by 2017 23
Significant Progress has been Made in Modernizing the NSE infrastructure The new Kansas City Complex ( KCRIMS) is 1/3 complete Ground breaking for the High Explosives Pressing Facility (HEPF) at Pantex was on August 30 For the Uranium Processing Facility (UPF) at Y-12: All NEPA activity is complete All public hearings are complete Record of decision is complete At Pantex: SS-21 (Seamless Safety) is fully in place All weapon types can be maintained At Sandia: MESA is fully operational Neutron generator facility is in place Acronyms MESA=Microsystems and Engineering Sciences Applications NEPA=National Environmental Policy Act NSE=Nuclear Security Enterprise SEIS=Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement SS21=Seamless Safety in the 21 st Century Z Refurbishment is complete, high-quality data are being obtained 24
Significant Progress has been Made in Modernizing the NSE infrastructure At Savannah River: Tritium extraction is underway At Los Alamos: DARHT is fully complete and generating high-quality data CMRR final SEIS has been issued, Record of Decision (ROD) issued PF-4: All major fixes for seismological issues are being implemented; completion in late Calendar 11 and early 12 At Livermore: NIF is fully in place and generating high-quality data for ICF and weapon science At Nevada: Criticality Experiments Facility (CEF) is complete and generating data U1a subcritical experiments are generating high-quality data JASPER gas gun experiments are underway again 25
Conclusions The Stockpile Stewardship and Management Plan provides a roadmap for the advanced science and technology development required to maintain the safety, security and reliability of the stockpile In pursuit of the stockpile mission, NNSA has driven world leading developments in materials science, high energy density physics, computational science, special nuclear material processing, and advanced manufacturing 26