Intelligence and Insight You Can Trust. Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 1

F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter Development and the Prospect of Cuts to the Programme Caitlin Harrington Lee Aviation Correspondent, IHS Jane s Mark Bobbi Senior Analyst- Military Aircraft, Jane s DS Forecast Marina Malenic Americas Bureau Aviation Reporter, IHS Jane s Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 2

Major Themes Why the F-35? Cost Problems and Schedule Delays Technical Issues What is causing these problems?: Double edged Swords of Commonality and Concurrency US Efforts to Mitigate Cost and Schedule Programs What is at stake in terms of US and international orders? Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 3

Why the F-35? 1. Interoperability- tri-service, international -comms/logistics/production 2. Affordability -Commonality -Concurrency -Economies of scale ramp rate is the key affordability -Learning Curve 3. Need to Recapitalise Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 4

Aircraft Procurement Quantity Average Age US Need to Recapitalize 500 25 450 400 C 350 300 250 LEGACY PROCUREMENT F/A-18 From 1963 to 1993 Average Fighter Age < 10 Years A-7 F-14 USAF Avg = 22 Years A-6 Dependant on Future Funding 20 15 200 AV-8B DON Avg = 14 Years 10 150 100 F-16 EA-18G F-35C 5 F-35B 50 A-10 F/A-18E/F F-35A 0 F-15 F-15E F-22 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Chart provided by Lockheed Martin Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 5

US Need to Recap: Flight Hours, Age Aircraft Inventory Avg Age Avg Hours A-10 357 24.2 7,770 F-15C/D 394 22.3 5,976 F-15E 222 13.1 3,714 F-16 Block 40/42 404 14.5 3,932 F-16 Block 50/52 253 10.3 2,904 Chart provided by Lockheed Martin Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 6

F-35 Fits With Obama Defense Strategy: Fewer, Smarter Weapons Smaller, leaner force, but more agile, more flexible, ready to deploy quickly, innovative, and technologically advanced Panetta Rebalancing toward Pacific and the Middle East, with emphasis on enhanced presence, power projection, and deterrence in Asia- Pacific. Specifically technological edge and freedom of action * Reversability could prove worrisome for defence industry Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8

International Need for Recapitalization Nearly all nations looking at far smaller fleets of supremely capable, true multirole aircraft to help in times of fiscal constraint Proven Fifth Gen capabilities are what everyone will eventually demand and can get with a 30 year F-35 production life European combat fleets rapidly obsolescing Israel demand for regional air dominance Turkey s geopolitical aspirations and UN/NATO sponsored activities Australia need to protect sea lanes and at least match regional and Chinese capabilities Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 9

Fifth Generation Capabilities Key Capabilities: 1. Stealth 2. Use of composites reduces weight, absorbs radar signature 3. Sensor fusion (integrated avionics to improve pilot awareness; advanced radar and sensors) 4. Speed (Super Cruise the ability to achieve supersonic speeds without the heat signature involved in use of afterburners) 5. Manoeuvrability (thrust vectoring) F-35 versus F-22: F-35 has a larger internal payload (1000 pounds versus 2000 pounds) and is cheaper. But F-35 does not have super cruise, thrust vectoring, and is not as stealthy. Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 11

Other Fifth Generation Efforts Sukhoi T-50/PAK FA Hindustan Aircraft Corporation Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft Credit: Rob Hewson Japan s ATD-X Shin Shin South Korea s KFX Chengdu J-20 Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 13

Capabilities Flight Controls All-electric flight control system Power Plant Pratt & Whitney F-135 F-35B: Rolls Royce ducted nozzle and lift fan Communications radar Sensors Helmet-Mounted Display VHF/UHF radio; Have Quick I/II; SINGCGARS/SIP; UHF SATCOM; IFF/SIF transponder; ILS; MLS; ACLS; Tacan; intra-flight datalink; Link 4A; LInk16/JTIDS;weapons datalink Northrop Grumman Multi-Function RF system/multifunction nose array, which combines AN/APG-81 radar, electronic warfare and comms functions Electro-optical sensor system developed by Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman 1.Northrop Grumman AN/AAQ-37 electro-optical distrubuted aperture system (EODAS): air-to-air search and track, target cueing, missile warning, and air-to-ground surface target tracking. Uses six conformal lightweight imaging IR sensors and seventh one in the targeting system to provide all-aspect multifunction imaging to pilot via helmet mounted display 2.Lockheed Martin Electro-Optical Targeting System (EOTS) : used to engage air and ground targets using a BAE Systems laser ranger/designator Vision Systems International /BAE Armament Guns: F-35A, internal cannon, General Dynamics GAU-22/A four-barrel 25 mm weapon. F-35B and F- 35C, external pod-mounted GAU-12 25 MM cannon. Internal weapons bays: F-35A and F-35C: 2 AIM 120C AMRAAMS and two GBU-31 JDAM bombs or 2 AIM-120 s and up to eight Small Diameter Bombs F-35B has smaller weapons bays Optional external stores on six hardpoints Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 14

Source of KPP Key Performance Parameters KPP F-35A CTOL F-35B STOVL Joint Radio Frequency Signature VLO VLO VLO F-35C CV Combat Radius 590 nm 450 nm 600 nm Sortie generation 3 surge/2 sustained Logistics Footprint <8 C-17 equivalent loads (for 24 primary authorizied aircraft in a squadron) 4 surge/2 sustained <8 C-17 equivalent loads (for 20 primary authorizied aircraft in a squadron) 3 surge/2 sustained 46,000 cubic feet, 243 short tons Marine Corps Mission reliability 93% 95% 95% Interoperability STOVL Mission performance short takeoff distance STOVL mission performance- vertical lift bring-back Secure voice and data Secure voice and data 550 ft 2x1 K JDAM 2x AIM120 With reserve fuel Secure voice and data Navy Maximum Approach Speed 145 knots Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 15

Cost Increases and Schedule Delays Programme Costs have grown to USD382 billion biggest procurement program in Pentagon history Third restructuring is expected to delay production of 120 to 150 jets over next five years (FY13 budget) Initial Operational Capability (IOC) dates in flux A. IOC date for F-35A (original: March 2013) likely to slip from 2016 to 2018, Lt. Gen. Herbert Carlisle, Deputy Chief of Staff for Operations, Plans and Requirements, told Congress in November. (plan is to SLEP the F-16 to extend capability of fleet to 2030). B. IOC date for F-35B (Original, March 2012) could slip to 2014 C. IOC date for F-35C (Original, March 2015) could slip to 2018 Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 16

Technical Problems: Quick Look Report 13 Problems identified HMDS: difficulties with the helmet-mounted display system (HMDS) involving latency of images and poor resolution in its night-vision capability FATIGUE: structural 'hot spots' that indicate a shorter-than-expected fatigue life for some components. Arresting Hook: There are also significant issues over how the C-model's arresting hook system (AHS) interoperates with the aircraft carrier-based Mk 7 arresting gear. Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 17

Mixed Flight Testing Record: Mission Systems Pose Major Challenge Exceeded 812 planned test flights by 105 flights Exceeded 133 planned mission system flights by 56 BUT mission systems testing will be difficult: Development, integration and testing of the most complex elements of mission systems lies ahead, said Michael Gilmore, Pentagon director of Operational Test and Evaluation. Overall, the program has demonstrated very little missions systems capability thus far in flight test, according to Gilmore. In fact, the program has not delivered some of its intended initial training capability, such as effective and consistent radar performance. Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 19

Changes in Production Orders At program start, the Navy decided it needed fewer F-35 s, and cut its requirement by 409 jets Total U.S. order reduced to 2,457 from 2,866. Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 21

Concurrency: A Miscalculation? Programmatic and Technical Concurrency the quantity of major Change Requests (CRs) from June 2010 to November 2011 is a concern. Currently, there are 725 change requests which are in the process at the engineering kickoff stage, 696 change requests at the engineering release stage, 538 change requests awaiting manufacturing bill of materials (MBOM) release, and 148 change requests available awaiting implementation. Therefore, of the 725 change requests that have been at the engineering kickoff stage, 577 are still not yet available to implement. These figures are indicative of the large volume of change traffic on this program and low design maturity. DoD Quick Look Report 63 aircraft in first four production lots will require extensive modification to be combat-ready OT & E report "Fundamentally, [concurrency] was a miscalculation," Vice Adm David Venlet said. "You'd like to take the keys to your shiny new jet and give it to the fleet with all the capability and all the service life they want. What we're doing is, we're taking the keys to the shiny new jet, giving it to the fleet and saying, 'Give me that jet back in the first year. I've got to go take it up to this depot for a couple of months and tear into it and put in some structural mods, because if I don't, we're not going to be able to fly it more than a couple, three, four, five years.' That's what concurrency is doing to us." Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 23

F-35B: On the Precipice? General James Dempsey, JCS Chairman: I m concerned about the variants and whether we can afford all three. In 2010 the President s Fiscal Commission called for F-35B cancellation F-35B Probation announced, early 2011 F-35B off probation, but not out of the woods according to Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 25

Efforts to Mitigate Cost and Schedule Problems: DoD Action LRIP 5 negotiations Previously 100% concurrency costs borne by government 19 August 2011 Acquisition Decision Memorandum requires LRIP 5 production contract to reflect a reasonable allocation for Lockheed Martin to share in the concurrency-cost risk associated with achieving F-35 configuration and capability requirements DoD said No contract until concurrency costs worked out DoD announced agreement reached on December 5 that established cost sharing on concurrency USD4 billion contract to build a total of 30 F-35s in the fifth LRIP. The contract comprised 21 conventional take-off/landing (CTOL) F-35As for USAF, three short take-off/vertical landing (STOVL) F-35Bs for the USMC and six carrier-variant F-35Cs for the USN Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 27

Efforts to Mitigate Cost and Schedule Problems: Congressional Action FY2012 Defense Appropriations legislation allocates USD100 million to fix anticipated design problems stemming from concurrency Approps Conference report says: "recognise that, for a variety of reasons, the Joint Strike Fighter program is burdened with what could be the highest level of concurrency ever seen in an acquisition program. Therefore, the conferees direct the Secretary of Defense to provide a semi-annual report to the congressional defense committees that shows the actual concurrency costs for the Joint Strike Fighter program." FY2012 Defense Authorisation Act orders the Pentagon to negotiate fixed price contracts with Lockheed Martin for LRIP lots 6 and beyond Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 28

Efforts to Mitigate Cost and Schedule Problems: Lockheed Martin Actions 1. Parts are now arriving on time 2. Learning Curve 300,000 Assembly Direct Touch Labor 250,000 200,000 CV CTOL STOVL 150,000 100,000 50,000 Learning Curve F-35 STOVL 61% F-35 CTOL 69% LM Legacy 69% 0 SDD L1 LRIP 2 LRIP 3 Chart provided by Lockheed Martin Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 29

Unit Price: Keeping it Down is Key to Avoiding Programmatic Cuts Current: @$173m including propulsion ($4 billion for 30 aircraft/$1.2 billion for 30 propulsion systems Projected: USD65 million less average $11m engine goal Can we reach goal unit price, and how soon can we do it? Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 30

Foreign Military Sales Japan 42 Israel SCP, letter of acceptance for 20, approx 100 in total Singapore, SCP, doing studies since 2004 South Korea, 2012 fighter competition - 60 Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 34

Looking Long Term: Potential Emerging Customers - New Defense Strategy puts focus on Long Range Capabilities marine aviation - New Opportunities for the F-35B? - USN can project significant air power for the first time WITHOUT a large deck carrier Taiwan- post Obama? India Spain, studies, F-35B on carriers? Greece, briefings, expressed interest Italy Belgium, asked for info Thailand Finland, asked for info Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 35

Conclusion: Concurrency and Commonality have proved highly risky F-35B has escaped an immediate death F-35 orders appear safe for now But with 120-150 jets delayed and the FY13 budget coming up it s a vulnerable time Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 36

Useful Links 2011 CRS Report: http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/rl30563.pdf AFA F-22/F-35 Comparison: http://www.afa.org/professionaldevelopment/issuebriefs/f-22_v_f-35_comparison.pdf Billy Mitchell Institute Report: Arsenal of Airpower: USAF Aircraft Inventory, 1950-2009: http://www.afa.org/mitchell/reports/ms_tai_1110.pdf F-35 Quick Look Report: http://www.pogo.org/resources/national-security/f-35-jsf-concurrency-quick-look-review-20111129.html F-35 2011 Operational Test and Evaluation Report: http://www.dote.osd.mil/pub/reports/fy2011/pdf/other/2011doteannualreport.pdf Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 37

Questions? Caitlin Harrington Lee Aviation Correspondent, IHS Jane s caitlinharringtonlee@gmail.com Mark Bobbi Aviation Desk Editor Senior Analyst-Military Aircraft, Jane s DS Forecast Mark.Bobbi@ihs.com Marina Malenic Aviation Reporter, Americas Bureau Marina.Malenic@janes.com Gareth Jennings Aviation Desk Editor Gareth.jennings@janes.com Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 38