United Nations Conference on Trade and Development TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT COMMISSION (Third session) Geneva, 6-10 June 2011 Item 4: Assessing the evolution of the international trading system and enhancing its contribution to development and economic recovery Speaker: Ms. Mina Mashayekhi Officer-in-Charge Division on International Trade in Goods and Services and Commodities, UNCTAD As prepared for delivery
UNCTAD/CD-TFT 1 Trade and Development Commission Evolution of the International Trading System & its Contribution to Development & Economic Recovery 6 June 2011 Mina Mashayekhi Officer-in-Charge, DITC 1
UNCTAD/CD-TFT 2 Structure of the Note by the Secretariat (TD/B/C.I/15) Focus on trade, productive capacity & employment 1. Recent developments in economic & trade recovery & the international trading system 2. Trade, productive capacities & employment 3. Strategies for productive capacity-building & employment creation 4. The contribution of the ITS to productive capacity & employment creation 2
1.A. Economic & Trade Recovery Overview Two-speed recovery in output - World output grew by 3.6% (2010) after -2% (2009) - Dynamic DC growth (7.1%) vs weak growth in developed countries (2.3%) - China (10.1%), India (8.4%), Brazil (7.6%) - Africa (4.7%) & LDCs (5.2%) also grew faster than world output World trade expanded by 12.4% (2010), after -10.9% contraction (2009) - Robust DC import demand boosted global exports, incl. SS trade - By March 2011, world merchandise exports still at 2% below their pre-crisis levels - Asia & North America regained the pre-crisis level (US +4%, India +39%, China -2%) - Import demand for final products transmitted through regional supply chains - CIS, Africa/Middle East & Latin America still 18%, 7% & 8% below the pre-crisis levels, owing to lower fuel/mineral prices in 2009-10. UNCTAD/CD-TFT 3 3
1.A. Economic & Trade Recovery Overview Commodities price surge & volatility in 2011 revived food security concerns Food prices surpassed historic peaks (supply shocks, growing demand, lower US dollar) - In March 2011, year-on-year increase = all food (27%), wheat (65%) and maize (80%) - Crude oil hikes in 2011 reaching $125 (April) further accentuating price hikes (by increasing input & transport costs) - Cotton prices exceeded its pre-crisis peak by 190% - Industrial metals also rose with demand increase (copper) Positive for producers (e.g. cotton) but negative for netimporters & net-buyers of food (urban & rural poor) In April/May 2011, some sign of moderations - May price levels lower than April = Wheat (-2.9%) & maize (-4.3%) Cotton (-23% from peaks), Oil (-7%) = $116. UNCTAD/CD-TFT 4 4
1.A. Economic & Trade Recovery Overview Services Major source of DC growth since 1980s (more than industry) Trade in services Crisis-resilient but significant effect (12% below pre-crisis level in Q3 2010) with sectoral difference - Transport, travel, construction & finance more affected than ICT & communication Modern exportable business services - Uses skilled labour & economic of scale & can act as an alternative catalyst for structural transformation (without going through manufacture) Tourism Key export & employment creating sector - Tourism receipts 852 billion (2009), tourism arrivals grew by 6.7% to a record 935 million (2010). Sensitive to social stability Remittances Private transfer but important source for development & poverty reduction - $325 billion to DCs (increase by 6% in 2010) - 4.5% of DC GDP, nearly 30% for some Low income countries - Formalizing flows, lowering transaction cost, new technology, financial inclusion & education, migrant entrepreneurship training important UNCTAD/CD-TFT 5 5
1.A. Economic & Trade Recovery Overview Increased concern over exchange rate misalignment resulting in increased capital flows to DCs (currency wars ) - Led to appreciation of DC currencies (e.g. Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia), adversely affecting their export competitiveness, & upward pressure on asset prices & inflation - Capital control applied to counter increased capital inflows => recognized as legitimate policy instrument - Depreciation of currency can act as export subsidies Addressing global imbalance is key to the sustainability of global economy - Surplus in China $306 billion vs US deficit $494 billion - Surplus expected to increase in China, Germany - G-20 discussion on numerical target (eg. 4% of GDP) & monitoring UNCTAD/CD-TFT 6 6
1.A. Economic & Trade Recovery Overview Large & persistent unemployment as a post-crisis challenge - 210 million unemployed, ¾ of new cases in developed ctry (2009) - Increased structural unemployment, aggravating pervasive unemployment, labour market segmentation, informal economy (60% in DCs), youth employment - Countries with real estate & banking crisis hard hit (Spain, US etc) - DCs affected by job losses in export sector, & further loss with domestic demand-dependent sector (eg. Industry, construction) with some absorbed in informal sector (eg. South Africa, North Africa) Some countries successful in reducing unemployment - Brazil Robust growth (7.5% in 2010) - Germany - Work sharing - Africa & Asia-Pacific continued to create employment (strong job growth in manufacturing, construction & services) UNCTAD/CD-TFT 7 7
1.B. Developments in the Int l Trading System Towards a multi-polar trading system with the rise of DCs The Doha Round Blocked & in search for new approaches - Targeted for conclusion by the end of 2011 April text - Participation of DCs in sectorals (chemical, industrial machinery & electronics) & exchange rate with other areas - Also services commitments in Mode 3 to bind existing level of openness on local presence & foreign equity participation - Other DC issues (SSM, preference erosion, NAMA flexibilities) outstanding - LDC early harvest stressed (DFQF, cotton, services waiver, accession) - Work progarmme for the rest of the agenda Three-speed approach (DG-WTO, 31 May) - Fast track LDC package by MC8 in December 2011 - Medium track a few others with development content to be agreed (e.g., TF, SDT, Ag export subsidies, T&E ) - Slow track Agriculture, NAMA, services, TRIPS UNCTAD/CD-TFT 8 8
1.B. Developments in the Int l Trading System Continued RTA proliferation (197 RTAs) - Greater involvement of Asian countries (China, ASEAN, India) - EU - Competitiveness-oriented RTAs, with emerging economies (ASEAN, India) & resource-rich countries, & continued EPAs - US - Trans-Pacific Partnership targeted for conclusion in Nov 2011 - Renewed interest in North-North RTAs (eg. EU-Canada, JPN) Policy challenges for DCs - Right pace & sequencing of market opening to ensure its sustainability - Policy space increasingly constrained with WTO-plus commitments (investment, IP, MFN clause, labour& environment, export tax) - Effective financial & development cooperation linked to market access «conditional liberalization» Need for development coherence between RTAs & MTS (GATT XXIV reform to incorporate SDT & LTFR principle) Addressing systemic risk of weakened MTS UNCTAD/CD-TFT 9 9
UNCTAD/CD-TFT 10 1.B. Developments in the Int l Trading System GSTP São Paulo Round conclusion (Dec 2010) - 22 participated in the Round, 11 countries (incl 4 Mercosur members) exchanged concessions (20% cuts over 70% products) covering 47000 tariff lines - 11 countries imports valued at 1 trillion, 10% of which intra-group - Real win-win opportunity - welfare estimated to increase by $6 billion with all participating countries benefiting in welfare and employment & intra-group trade to increase by 3% - GSTP rules of origin to be further discussed (currently based on value-added criteria, inclusion of tariff shift rules proposed)
2.A. Industrial Policy & Development Countries recovering quicker are often those that were successful in structural change and diversification => Strategic use of trade & industrial policies New economic thinking on trade, the State & development Lessons learned - Export-led growth model has used industrial policy & proactive trade policy - Protected domestic industry & manufacturing base before liberalization combined with export promotion & import replacement - Government helped in mobilizing and allocating investment while promoting diversification & upgrading - Complementary policies human capital development, R&D, technology & infrastructure, exchange rates, wage moderation The crisis reaffirmed the Gov s role as developmental State UNCTAD/CD-TFT 11 11
UNCTAD/CD-TFT 12 2.A. Industrial Policy & Development New / open economy industrial policy - Focus on economic incentives (through taxes, subsidies & regulations) capitalizing on existing comparative advantage, rather than picking the winner - Recognizes that countries specialization patterns ( product space ) affect the likelihood of triggering growth, thus industrial policies can influence development path Lin s practical steps (2010) - Based on a list of goods and services produced for 20 years in dynamically growing countries with similar endowment structures and with a GDP per capita of 100 per cent higher than the country under examination - Governments can give priority to industries that domestic firms have already entered and can help remove obstacles to their development, or, - If no domestic firms exist, they can adopt measures to attract firms from high-income countries to invest in these industries
2.B.Trade & Employment: Important but complex link Many jobs depend on trade - Trade-GDP ratio about 60 per cent (world) but will trade lead to more employment? - Trade openness does not lead to higher overall employment level - Liberalization leads to reallocation of labour between firms & sectors - Adjustment costs can be significant, especially in rigid labour markets, may offset positive long-term gains from trade, with labour mainly bearing the cost (Francois et al 2011; McMillan & Verduzco 2011) Negative effect in import-competing sectors - Evidence of job losses in less competitive sectors and firms (Muendler 2010) Job creation in export sector may be slower than job destruction in import-competing sector (Casacuberta & Gandelman 2010) - Productivity growth in export sectors (requiring less workers) - Displaced workers move into non-trading or informal sector UNCTAD/CD-TFT 13 13
3. Productive Capacity and Strong Export Sector Needed The need to build productive capacities to benefit from trade & create employment recognized Trade, industrial & labour market policies are increasingly mobilized - Asian tigers used policies to develop their productive capacities - EU 2020 smart, sustainable & inclusive growth to achieve a 75% employment rate (currently 69%) = Support to SMEs, flexicurity to promote LM flexibilities & security, develop competitive & diversified industrial base through a new industrial policy for globalization era - US National Export Initiative to create millions of jobs by doubling exports by 2015, prioritizing SME exports Export financing & credit, export assistance & reduced barriers to trade, incl trade agreements (Doha Round) UNCTAD/CD-TFT 14 14
3. Industrial & Trade Policies as Instrument for Job Creation Labour market policies influence labour costs, hence longterm competitiveness - Labour market flexibilities & wage moderation in export-led growth Labour-demand creation policies = Industrial policy elements - SME support, GP, infrastructure spending, strategic tariffs - Targeting labour-intensive sectors (manufacture, agriculture, services) - Industrial & trade policy linkage, hence trade disciplines could affect these policies (eg. Local content requirement in subsidies, GP, TRIMs, & tariff disciplines) => Need for policy space DC capacity limited to implement more traditional labour market adjustment support policies - Passive policies to help adjust economic shocks (unemployment benefit, social security) - Active policies to facilitate labour demand-supply matching (training) UNCTAD/CD-TFT 15 15
4. Contribution of the Int l Trading System The objective of full employment recognized but primarily focused on trade liberalization Increased relevance of the ITS to productive capacity & employment creation strategies Case for aligning liberalization approaches & disciplines to broader development objectives Its contribution needs to be optimized by an integrated approach to allow for: Greater export opportunities to create jobs in export sector Strategic liberalization to mitigate adverse employment effect in import-competing sector Support to facilitate labour market adjustment UNCTAD/CD-TFT 16 16
4.A. Enhanced Market Access to Boost Labour Demand in the Export Sector Enhancing market access & entry opportunities - DCs tend to have comparative advantage in labour-intensive sector - Tend to face high tariff protection (low protection on the least labour intensive sectors like minerals) - Market opening creates employment for low skilled workers & allow for diversification into labor-intensive manufactures (from commodities) The Doha Round potential & challenges - NAMA Swiss formula tariff harmonizing effect, but DCs face the risk of de industrialization without sufficient LTFR principles - Many smaller DCs suffer from preference erosion (like in apparels) - Mode 4 services offers limited South-South RTAs (developmental integration) could significantly expand trade, as existing protection (NTBs) high & intra-regional SS trade tend to promote labour intensive manufactures 17 UNCTAD/CD-TFT 17
4.B. Strategic Liberalization Tailored to Developmental & Labour Market Conditions Carefully designed content, depth, pace & sequencing of liberalization, tailored to developmental & labour market conditions - Important in attenuating industrial job losses for the long-term sustainability of liberalization & nurturing industrial base - The Doha Round estimates suggest that despite global net-gains, many DCs could lose unskilled employment in industrial sectors in favour of agriculture (UNCTAD, Carnegie Endowment) The Doha Round potential & challenges - Gradual liberalization, LTFR & SDT, principles recognized, but to be fully delivered (e.g., NAMA tariff cut approach) - Implications for rural employment & food security - North-South RTAs could override LTFR by reciprocity requirement (GATT Article XXIV reform to incorporate LTFR principle) UNCTAD/CD-TFT 18 18
4.C. Strengthened Cooperation to Help DCs to Implement Labour Market Adjustment Labour market adjustment support as key instrument for realizing net welfare gains from trade liberalization DCs ability highly limited but trade negotiations do not fully take into account such policy capacity constraints - Case for adjusting liberalization approaches to DC capacity to manage & mitigate adjustment costs Need to support DCs to implement required policies to cope with labour market adjustment - US Trade Adjustment Assistance programme retraining & income support for workers/firms affected by trade (incl services & those affected by outsourcing) - The European Globalization Adjustment Fund targeted at vulnerable and lowest skilled workers Aid for productive capacity, employment & trade needs to be provided linked to trade liberalization commitments UNCTAD/CD-TFT 19 19
Conclusion Continued relevance of trade-led growth model but need for pro-active policies to build productive capacity & employment Trade, industrial & labour market policies need to be mobilized & coordinated to foster inclusive growth The ITS is increasingly relevant to such new growth model, thus critically need to factor in implications for countries efforts to build productive capacity & generate employment The ITS can make an important contribution by concluding the Doha Round with strong development content & enhancing development coherence between the MTS & RTAs Non-delivery of development dimension of the Doha Round in market access components is a missed opportunity for jobcreating growth & raises credibility issue for the MTS UNCTAD/CD-TFT 20 20
Conclusion Bhagwati/Sutherland report (May 2011) called for setting 2011 as inflexible deadline & identified MTS reform agenda - Preferential liberalization, to be multilateralized - Speeding up rule-making function, to enhance judicial function - New level of political leadership by all members larger DCs role Case for rethinking & strengthening the MTS Current architecture & instruments embodying conventional economic thinking become less effective in addressing rapidly evolving economic realities & development challenges Mercantilist focus to be adjusted to better address development objectives Need for longer-term institutional reform - Broad-based agenda under single undertaking - Innovative form of commitment allowing some rollback without link to dispute settlement UNCTAD/CD-TFT 21 21
Thank you mina.mashayekhi@unctad.org UNCTAD/CD-TFT 22 22