Task Force Climate Change Update Rear Admiral Dave Titley Director, Task Force Climate Change / Oceanographer of the Navy March 2011 UNCLASSIFIED
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Arctic Sea Ice Continues to Melt & Thin 7 UNCLASSIFIED
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Sea Level Rise Satellite Observations Accelerating Ice Sheet Mass Loss 21 st Century Sea Level Rise? Tide Stations The Copenhagen Diagnosis, 2009 University of Colorado, Boulder, 2009 Douglas, 1997 Observation: ~2mm/yr Observation: ~3.1mm/yr Projection: ~2-6mm/yr Observation: >50 Gt/yr Projection: 10-20mm/yr? UNCLASSIFIED 1870-1992 1993-2006 2007 IPCC AR4 2009 2010-2100 9
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Global Hurricane / Typhoon Energy 11 UNCLASSIFIED
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.04% ~ 390 ppm 0% 13
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The Team INTERAGENCY NATIONAL INTERNATIONAL DOD SCIENTIFIC, ACADEMIC, & ANALYTICAL Engaged nearly 450 individuals UNCLASSIFIED 15 from over 125 organizations
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Adaptive Management UNCLASSIFIED An iterative approach NOT fire and forget 21 21
Naval Studies Board Recommendations Support ratification of UNCLOS Address naval coastal installation vulnerabilities Prepare for increase in HA/DR, Arctic missions Address emerging technical requirements (e.g. polar ops) Address partnership demands Support research & development UNCLASSIFIED Navy action is already underway 22
Navy Arctic Strategic Objectives Signed by CNO on 21 May 2010 I. Contribute to safety, stability, & security in the region IV. Strengthen existing & foster new cooperative relationships in the region II. Safeguard U.S. maritime interests in the region V. Ensure Navy forces are capable and ready UNCLASSIFIED III. Protect the American people, our critical infrastructure, & key resources Towards the desired end state: a safe, stable, and secure Arctic 23 23
ICEX-11 Aerial resupply SSN 778 surfaced Ice-mining VIP visit UNCLASSIFIED Demonstrating technology, gaining experience & expertise 24 24
Installation Vulnerability Assessments Physical Impacts! Inundation! Wetlands! Erosion patterns & rates! Surface/ground water supplies! Water tables! Tidal flows & currents! Storm & flood damage Camp Pendleton Naval Base Coronado Camp Lejeune Eglin Air Force Base Naval Station Norfolk UNCLASSIFIED Enabled & informed by sound science 25 25
Improving Prediction Capability Earth System Prediction Capability Recapitalize aging suite of global atmospheric models Implement interagency collaboration TC Forecasts Sea Level Rise GHG Monitoring Revolutionary advancement National predictive architecture Extreme Weather, Floods, Droughts Arctic National Security UNCLASSIFIED Initial Navy investments through ONR in 2012 26 26
Navy Engagement Defense National Congressional International Media Coordination & support to multiple OSD offices National Ocean Policy Implementation US-UK Statement to US CODEL Operation NANOOK/NATSIQ Radio interviews USEUCOM / SACEUR Flag-level meetings National Security Staff s Arctic Interagency Policy Committee House sub-committee testimonies USS Taylor Port Visit to Murmansk On-line publications USPACOM Environmental Security Conference Conferences & symposia USNORTHCOM Flag-level Meetings US Global Change Research Program Multiple briefings to HAC-D, SAC-D, HASC, and SASC staffs US Foreign Navy Staff Talks Traditional printed outlets UNCLASSIFIED Demonstrating leadership 27 27
Navy Adaptation Activity Education Policy, Strategy, & Plans Navy Roadmap Naval Post Graduate School Arctic & Climate Change Dissertations Climate course established at US Naval Academy Naval War College courses address Arctic & Climate Study Topics Support to 2010 QDR Arctic & Climate Change Roadmaps Navy Arctic Strategic Objectives Exploring New Cooperative Partnerships Studies & Assessments Operations & Training Arctic Care 2010 Support to DoD sea level rise studies Support to Defense Science Board Climate Change Task Force Study for AFRICOM Outreach & Engagement Naval Studies Board climate change study Northern Edge 2009 Wargames & Tabletop Exercises Science & Research Arctic glider UUV demonstration Operation NANOOK Support Interagency Climate Change Adaptation Task Force Conferences, Symposia, Media events Advocate for UNCLOS Smart Voyage Planning Interagency partnership For air-ocean-ice numerical prediction Science Ice Exercise Plan UNCLASSIFIED Improve understanding Ensure readiness (resilience) 28
Navy Initiatives Observation & Prediction Next Generation Air-ocean-ice numerical prediction Environmental Impact Assessments Navy Roadmap Adaptation Arctic & Climate Change Roadmaps Sea level rise impact modeling Water resource management Energy Efficiency Smart Grid Net Zero Installations Incentivized Conservation Metering & Auditing New Construction & Renovation Alternative Energy Portable Power Biofuels Renewable power Cooperative Oceanographic Surveys Arctic civil relocation & erosion control Training & Awareness Remote sensing Arctic fleet training Smart Voyage Planning, & Efficient Aircraft & Ship Systems Alternative Fuel Vehicles Technology and Research to Understand, Assure Mobility + Expand Tactical Reach Predict and Adapt to Climate Change + Lighten the Load = Combat Capability 29 Reduce the Navy Carbon Footprint UNCLASSIFIED
What s Next MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEPT Studies & Assessments Navy CBA Navy Arctic Capabilities Based Assessment Operations & Training OSD-Policy Arctic Report to Congress Fleet Arctic Readiness Assessment Initial Arctic Dashboard Navy Installations Sea Level Rise Study Arctic Care 2011 Northern Edge 2011 Arctic Shield 2011 Outreach & Engagement Navy Energy & Climate Symposium Capitol Hill Ocean Week National Ice Center Symposium Arctic Militaries Roundtable Science & Research Formalize Interagency partnership for air-ocean-ice numerical prediction Naval War College Arctic Game ONR Direct Research Initiatives UNCLASSIFIED 30
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Discussion 34 UNCLASSIFIED