Second Edition WEAPONS of MASS DESTRUCTION and TERRORISM James J.F. Forest University of Massachusetts, Lowell Russell D. Howard Brigadier General USA (Ret.) Foreword by Ambassador Michael Sheehan for26229_fm_i-xxvi.indd iii
Foreword Michael A. Sheehan xix Preface xxi Unit One Conceptual Frameworks Introduction 1 1.1 Definitions, Trends, and the Concept of New Terrorism 5 Russell D. Howard and Margaret J. Nencheck The New Terrorism and Weapons of Mass Destruction 6 Brian Michael Jenkins The New Age of Terrorism 29 1.2 The Nature of the Post-9/11 WMD Terrorism Threat 38 Bruce Hoffman CBRN Terrorism Post-9/11 39 James J.F. Forest Opportunities and Limitations for WMD Terrorism 55 Leonard A. Cole WMD and Lessons from the Anthrax Attacks 73 Unit Two Weapons and Motivations Introduction 85 2.1 Chemical Weapons 90 National Academies and Department of Homeland Security Fact Sheet: Chemical Warfare Agents, Industrial Chemicals, and Toxins 91 Jonathan B. Tucker Chemical Terrorism: Assessing Threats and Responses 98 2.2 Biological Weapons 112 National Academies and Department of Homeland Security Fact Sheet: Human Pathogens, Biotoxins and Agricultural Threats 113 James W. Martin, George W. Christopher, and Edward M. Eitzen History of Biological Weapons: From Poisoned Darts to Intentional Epidemics 123 xv for26229_fm_i-xxvi.indd xv
xvi Brian Finlay The Bioterror Pipeline: Big Pharma, Patent Expirations, and New Challenges to Global Security 118 Benjamin Wittes Innovation s Darker Future: Biosecurity, Technologies of Mass Empowerment and the Constitution 156 2.3 Radiological Weapons 178 National Academies and Department of Homeland Security Fact Sheet: Dirty Bombs and Other Devices 179 Charles D. Ferguson and Michelle M. Smith Assessing Radiological Weapons: Attack Methods and Estimated Effects 185 2.4 Nuclear Weapons 200 National Academies and Department of Homeland Security Fact Sheet: Nuclear Weapons 201 Morten Bremer Maerli, Annette Schaper, and Frank Barnaby The Characteristics of Nuclear Terrorist Weapons 209 Matthew Bunn and Anthony Wier The Seven Myths of Nuclear Terrorism 223 John Mueller The Atomic Terrorist? 236 2.5 Case Studies 255 David Albright and Cory Hinderstein Unraveling the A. Q. Khan and Future Proliferation Networks 256 Jeffrey M. Bale The North Caucasus Conflict and the Potential for Radiological Terrorism 270 Robert Jones, Brandon Wills, and Christopher Kang Chlorine Gas: An Evolving Hazardous Material Threat and Unconventional Weapon 291 Unit Three Critical Infrastructure Dimensions Introduction 301 3.1 Public Spaces, Transportation Networks, and Other Critical Infrastructure 304 Gary A. Ackerman, Jeffrey M. Bale, and Kevin S. Moran Assessing the Threat to Critical Infrastructure 305 Homeland Security & Defense Business Council (Liddy Heneghan, lead author) Mass Transit Security 327 3.2 Chemical and Biological Threats 337 John McNabb Chemical and Biological Threats against Public Water Systems 338 for26229_fm_i-xxvi.indd xvi
xvii Mark Wheelis, Rocco Casagrande, and Laurence V. Madden Biological Attack on Agriculture: Low-Tech, High- Impact Bioterrorism 365 3.3 Nuclear Reactors 379 Gavin Cameron Nuclear Terrorism: Reactors and Radiological Attacks after September 11 380 George Bunn and Chaim Braun Terrorism Potential for Research Reactors Compared with Power Reactors: Nuclear Weapons, Dirty Bombs, and Truck Bombs 399 Unit Four Responding to the Threat Introduction 411 4.1 Strategy and Policy 417 Mary Beth Nikitin, Paul K. Kerr, and Steven A. Hildreth Control Regimes: Background and Status 418 Proliferation Albert J. Mauroni A Counter-WMD Strategy for the Future 452 Russell D. Howard Preemptive Military Doctrine: No Other Choice 464 4.2 Intelligence 476 Matthew C. Waxman Self-Defense and the Limits of WMD Intelligence 477 Brian Finlay Minding Our Business: The Role of the Private Sector in Managing the WMD Supply Chain 497 4.3 Response and Resilience 506 Ashton B. Carter, Michael M. May, and William J. Perry The Day After: Action Following a Nuclear Blast in a U.S. City 507 Ronald W. Perry and Michael K. Lindell Understanding Citizens Response to Disasters with Implications for Terrorism 518 4.4 Unique Challenges of Responding to Bioterrorism Threats and Attacks 536 Lea Ann Fracasso Developing Immunity: The Challenges in Mandating Vaccinations in the Wake of a Biological Terrorist Attack 537 Crystal Franco and Nidhi Bouri Environmental Decontamination Efforts Following a Large-Scale Bioterrorism Attack: Federal Progress and Remaining Gaps 562 Gregory D. Koblentz and Jonathan B. Tucker Tracing an Attack: The Promise and Pitfalls of Microbrial Forensics 579 for26229_fm_i-xxvi.indd xvii
xviii Sam Berger and Jonathan D. Moreno Public Trust, Public Health, and Public Safety: A Progressive Response to Bioterrorism 597 4.5 Case Studies 617 David Albright, Paul Brannan, and Andrea Scheel Stricker Detecting and Disrupting Illicit Nuclear Trade after A.Q. Khan 618 Elin Gursky, Thomas V. Inglesby, and Tara O Toole Anthrax 2001: Observations on the Medical and Public Health Response 636 Robyn Pangi Consequence Management in the 1995 Sarin Attacks on the Japanese Subway System 657 Xavier Stewart An All-Hazards Training Center for a Catastrophic Emergency 686 Unit Five Assessing the Future WMD Threat Introduction 701 5.1 Predicting Peril or the Peril of Prediction? Assessing the Risk of CBRN Terrorism Gregory D. Koblentz 705 5.2 Threat Convergence: A Framework for Analyzing the Potential for WMD Terrorism Joshua Sinai and James J.F. Forest 725 5.3 Emerging WMD Technologies Forrest E. Waller, Jr. and Michael A. George 739 5.4 Conclusion: Appreciating the Past and Present, Anticipating the Future Adam Dolnik and James J.F. Forest 752 Appendix A.1 Prevention of WMD Proliferation and Terrorism Report Card (January 2010) 767 A.2 National Strategy for Counterterrorism (June 2011) 787 A.3 National Strategy for CBRNE Standards (May 2011) 808 Credits 822 Index 826 for26229_fm_i-xxvi.indd xviii