Moving Innovation from Invention to Investment February 27, 2018 Dr. Ellen D. Williams Distinguished University Professor
Incremental and Disruptive Technology Advances cost or 1/performance What curve will this new technology follow? Will it develop new markets in areas where standard wind is not economical? Will it disrupt the standard wind turbines market? Will improved learning allow wind turbines to continue to drive down costs, and expand markets? existing learning curve? new learning curve disruptive technology? Time or Cumulative Production 1
Innovation, Investment, Demonstration - Makani 2
Transitions Toward Market Adoption R&D Prototype Demonstration Commercialization Investment Valley of Death #1: Public Funds Valley of Death #2: Follow-on Development Funds Valley of Death #3: Venture Capital/Private Equity Time 3
Support for Innovators US University -based NSF I-Corps https://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/i-corps/ Seven-week I-Corps curriculum designed for learns to learn what it will take to achieve a commercial impact with their innovation. Three person teams Principal investigator, entrepreneurial lead, industry mentor Teams conduct 100+ interviews of customers and stakeholders Incubators First stage: space, facilities, advice Second stage: Space for early scale up, mentoring 4
Financial Support for early stage innovators Government grants - DOE applied energy programs Small Business Innovation Research ARPA-E Private Sector Prizes Angel Investors Mission-oriented investors Round A venture investment Issues of Intellectual Property And Ownership of Equity 5
ARPA-E Authorizing Legislation - 2007 Mission: To overcome long-term and high-risk technological barriers in the development of energy technologies Improve Goals: Ensure Efficiency Economic Security Energy Security Technological Lead in Advanced Energy Technologies Reduce Emissions Means: Identify and promote revolutionary advances in fundamental and applied sciences Translate scientific discoveries and cutting-edge inventions into technological innovations Accelerate transformational technological advances in areas that industry by itself is not likely to undertake because of technical and financial uncertainty Reduce Imports 6
Innovation Portfolio Oxygen Carbon Nitrogen Magnesium http://www.arpa-e.energy.gov/
8 IMPACT Energy and Economic Security, Technological Lead If it works will it matter?
Assessment criteria Potential impact on Energy Mission and Goals Technical Challenge Technical Opportunity Innovation Demonstration Pathway to Economic Impact Potential for Large Scale Deployment https://arpa-e.energy.gov/impact, https://arpa-e.energy.gov/?q=engage/articles-publications 9
Measuring the Transitions Toward Market Since 2009 ARPA-E has invested approximately $1.5 billion across more than 580 projects, of which 262 have completed their ARPA-E support as of Feb 2017. 74 ARPA-E projects have attracted more than $1.8 billion in private-sector follow-on funding (as of Feb 2017). 80 Cumulative Number 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 Received Private Sector Follow on Funding Started New Companies Continued Development under Other Government Programs Deputy Director of Commercialization: Ryan.Umstaddt@Hq.Doe.Gov 10
Innovation Opportunities in a Changing World... Vehicle dynamics, optimization and real-world driving Powertrain control and optimization Regulatory fuel economy and emissions ARPA-E NEXTCAR Goals Energy consumption: 20% reduction over a 2016/2017 baseline vehicle Incremental System Cost: <$1,000 for Light Duty vehicle, Potential Impact - US Energy Consumption Reduction: 4.4 quads/year CO 2 emissions reduction: 0.3 GT/year 11
Background slides 12
ARPA-E: Portfolio Approach ELECTRICITY GENERATION IMPACCT SOLAR ADEPT FOCUS REBELS ALPHA GENSETS MOSAIC ELECTRICAL GRID & STORAGE GENI NODES GRID DATA GRIDS HEATS CHARGES IONICS EFFICIENCY & EMISSIONS ADEPT BEETIT REACT METALS SWITCHES DELTA SHIELD ENLITENED MONITOR ARID ROOTS TRANSPORTATION & STORAGE BEEST AMPED RANGE TRANSNET NEXTCAR ELECTROFUELS PETRO MOVE REMOTE TERRA REFUEL 2010-2012 2013-2014 2015 2016 Plus OPEN solicitations 2009, 2012 and 2015 13
World Energy Use Current Policies Versus 450 ppm 900 800 Historical Energy Demand (Quads) Current Policies 43 Gt/yr 450 Stabilization Scenario 700 600 34 Gt/yr 39 Gt/yr 32 Gt/yr 25 Gt/yr 19 Gt/yr 500 400 300 200 100 0 1990 2013 2020 2030 2040 2020 2030 2040 Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Bioenergy Other renewables Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2015, p. 582 and 584 14
ARPA-E s History In 2007, The National Academies recommended Congress establish an Advanced Research Projects Agency within the U.S. Department of Energy* The new agency proposed herein [ARPA-E] is patterned after that model [of DARPA] and would sponsor creative, out-of-the-box, transformational, generic energy research in those areas where industry by itself cannot or will not undertake such sponsorship, where risks and potential payoffs are high, and where success could provide dramatic benefits for the nation. Awards Announced Programs To Date 37 1 7 12 16 20 23 32 500+ 39 2007 Rising Above the Gathering Storm Published America COMPETES Act Signed 2009 2010 American Recovery & Reinvestment Act Signed $400 Million (Recovery Act) 2011 2012 2013 2014 America COMPETES Reauthorization Signed $180 Million (FY2011) $275 Million (FY2012) $251 Million (FY2013) $280 Million (FY2014) 2015 $280 Million (FY2015) 2016 Anticipated $291 Million (FY2016) 15
ARPA-E Project Portfolio by Lead Organization ARPA-E supports multi-institutional teams with substantial involvement from the private sector: 72% of projects involve more than one institution 84% of projects include the private sector, as leads or partners