IP-200 Operational Design

IP-200 Operational Design We Produce the Future Mark Black Warfighting Education Directorate

Why Plan? No plan survives first contact with the enemy. - Helmuth von Moltke the Elder, 1871 In preparing for battle, I have always found that plans are useless but planning is indispensable. - President Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1957

Why Plan? to keep yourselves steeped in the character of the problem that you may one day be called upon to solve Planning provides a foundation for or a point of departure from which problem solving can occur The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force

Why Plan? Master the mechanics and techniques; understand the art and profession; and be smart enough to know when to deviate from it. - Gen Anthony Zinni, CENTCOM, 1997-2000

Overview Operational Approach Operational Design Elements Operation Phasing Joint Planning Process (JPP)

References JP 5-0, Joint Planning JP 3-30, Command and Control for Joint Air Operations CJCSM 3122.01A, JOPES Vol 1, Planning Policies and Procedures

Operational Approach Operational Approach - A description of the broad actions the force must take to transform current conditions into those desired at end state. (JP 5-0)

Operational Approach

Operational Design Elements (ODE) Termination Military End State Objectives Effects Center of Gravity Decisive Points Lines of Operation & Lines of Effort Direct and Indirect Approach Anticipation Operational Reach Culmination Arranging Operations Forces and Functions JP 3-0 and JP 5-0

Operational Design Elements (ODE) Termination Military End State Objectives Effects Center of Gravity Decisive Points Lines of Operation & Lines of Effort Direct and Indirect Approach Anticipation Operational Reach Culmination Arranging Operations Forces and Functions JP 3-0 and JP 5-0

ODE: Lines of Operation A Line of Operation defines the interior or exterior orientation of force in relation to the enemy or that connects actions on nodes and/or decisive points related in time and space to an objective.

ODE: Operational Reach Operational Reach the distance and duration across which a joint force can successfully employ military capabilities. Inextricably tied to the concept of LOOs; influenced by length, efficiency, and security of distribution system and LOCs Pre-positioned equipment, transportation availability, and range of weapons can extend operational reach In order to make assured conquests it is necessary always to proceed within the rules: to advance, to establish yourself solidly, to advance and establish yourself again, and always prepare to have within reach of your army your resources and your requirements. - Frederick the Great (1747)

B-2 Spirits destroy Daesh camps in Libya On Wednesday, January 18, Whiteman's Total Force team executed precision strikes against two Daesh camps in Libya. The strikes, which were completed by two B-2s over the course of a 30+ hour mission were conducted in coordination with the Libyan Government of National Accord, authorized by the President of the United States, and validated our ability to strike targets across the globe anytime, anywhere. Senior Airman Joel Pfiester, 509th Bomb Wing Public Affairs / Published January 20, 2017 The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force

US launches more than 50 cruise missiles at Assad regime airfield over Syrian chemical attack The US launched a salvo of 59 cruise missiles on Shayrat airfield and nearby military infrastructure controlled by Syrian President Bashar Assad, in response to a chemical attack that killed at least 80 people in the northwestern part of the country on Tuesday. Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Ford Williams/U.S. Navy via AP April 7, 2017 The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force

ODE: Direct and Indirect Approach

ODE: Culmination Culmination - that point in time and/or space at which the operation can no longer maintain momentum. Offensive: the attack is no longer possible Defensive: no longer have ability to go on counterattack or defend successfully For stability operations, culmination may result from: Erosion of national will Decline in popular support Questions about legitimacy Experiencing excessive casualties The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force

ODE: Arranging Operations When Arranging Operations, planners should consider simultaneity, depth, timing, and tempo

Phases Characterized by the focus placed on it Distinct in time, space, and/or purpose from one another Represent a natural progression and subdivision of the campaign or operation Each have a set of starting and ending conditions Should be condition-driven rather than time-driven

Level of Military Effort Phase 0 Shape OPLAN Approval Theater Shaping Global Shaping Phase I Deter OPORD Activation Phase II Seize Initiative Shaping Activities Seizing the Initiative Activities Deterring Activities Plan Phases Phase III Dominate Dominating Activities OPORD Execution Phase IV Stabilize Enabiling Civil Authority Activity Stabilizing Activities Phase V Enable Civil Authority Phase 0 Shape OPORD Temination

March 19, April 9, May 1 "In the battle of Iraq, the United States and our allies have prevailed. The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force George W. Bush, May 2003 Edward Chin April 9, 2003

The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force Edwin Mora 1 Mar 2017 Experts Warn: Iran-Allied Shiite Militias in Iraq to Threaten U.S. After Mosul Falls

Experts Warn: Iran-Allied Shiite Militias in Iraq to Threaten U.S. After Mosul Falls The U.S.-led coalition and its Iraqi partners should be vigilant against a near certain reemergence attempt by the Islamic State (ISIS/ISIL) after it loses its territory in Iraq, where tens of thousands of Iran-allied Shiite militias pose just as serious of a threat to America s interests, experts warned. Edwin Mora 1 Mar 2017

Operational Approach

Operational Approach Where are we? What is the problem? Where do we want to be?

Joint Operation Planning Process JPP Purpose Activities Products

Joint Planning Process The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force JPP is an orderly, analytical set of logical steps to frame a problem; examine a mission; develop, analyze, and compare alternative COAs; select the best COA; and produce a plan or order. The application of operational design provides the conceptual basis for structuring campaigns and operations. The JPP seven-step process aligns with the four APEX planning functions. The first two JPP steps (planning initiation and mission analysis) take place during the APEX strategic guidance planning function. The next four JPP steps (COA development, COA analysis and wargaming, COA comparison, and COA approval) align under the APEX concept development planning function. The final JPP step (plan or order development) occurs during the APEX plan development planning function.

Step 1- Initiation Planning normally begins at direction of POTUS, SECDEF, or CJCS Planning team will assess: Initiating directive JFC guidance Time available before execution Status of intelligence JSCP IP-410 Execution Planning

Step 2 - Mission Analysis Joint Intelligence Preparation of the Operational Environment (JIPOE) Center of Gravity (COG) Analysis Staff Estimates JFC Mission Statement

Joint Intelligence Preparation of the Operational Environment JIPOE is the analytical process used by joint intelligence organizations to produce intelligence assessments, estimates, and other intelligence products in support of the JFC s decision-making process. Priority Intelligence Requirements (PIRs) - J2 staff -- Focus on adversary and operational environment -- Drive Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance (ISR) collection requirements -- Excessive PIRs may result in unfocused intelligence collection and production

Center of Gravity (COG) The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force COG - Source of power that provides moral or physical strength, freedom of action, or will to act. (JP 5-0) Strategic Level Leadership, national will, alliance Operational Level Often military capabilities Analysis yields target sets vulnerable to attack to produce decisive effects Requires a systems perspective Linked to Objectives Must also consider friendly COGs Carl von Clausewitz

Staff Estimates Evaluation of how factors in a staff s functional area support and impact the mission Initially, tend to emphasize info collection more than analysis Continually updated based on changes in situation Not every situation requires or permits lengthy and formal staff estimate process JP 5-0, Appendix C has a list of potentially applicable functional areas as well as sample formats of a formal estimate document (also in Enclosure T of JOPES Vol 1)

Staff Estimates Functional Areas identified in JP 5-0, Appendix C: Mobilization; Personnel; Intelligence; Logistics; Legal; Engineering; Force Protection; Interagency Coordination; Health Service Support; Transportation; JRSOI; Communications Systems Support; STO; Operational Contract Support; Multinational Capabilities and Support The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force

JFC Mission Statement Example: Specified / Implied Tasks Essential tasks = mission statement The JFC will halt advancement of enemy forces within the JOA by D+4 to prevent enemy attacks on joint forces and to allow unhindered joint operations.

Step 2 - Mission Analysis The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force Joint Intel Preparation of the Operational Environment Focus on adversary, operational environment, and culture COG Analysis Determine enemy s and own COGs Staff Estimates Functional Areas support/assessment; develop critical facts and assumptions Develop Mission Statement Analyze Planning Directives and Strategic Guidance Determine specified, implied, and essential tasks Mission Analysis Brief CC s Intent

Step 3 - COA Development Determination of how mission will be accomplished Answers: Who, What, When, Where, Why and How COA is developed into a Concept of Operations (CONOPS) Consider: JFC mission, intent, end state Operational environment C2 structure Available forces Phase requirements Staff builds multiple COAs Op Art and Op Design used heavily to develop COAs

Staff Estimates Revisited Validate and Update Mission and Situation information from Step 2, Mission Analysis Staff needs to do COA Analysis, COA Comparison, and Conclusions/Recommendations through the lens of their functional area Identification of risks and methods for risk management are critical part of estimate development The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force

Step 3 - COA Development

Step 3 - COA Development A valid COA should be: The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force Adequate can accomplish the mission within the commander s guidance Feasible can accomplish the mission within established time, space, and resource limitations Acceptable balance cost and risk with advantage gained Distinguishable significantly different from other COAs Complete identifies objectives and tasks; major forces required; concepts for deployment, employment and sustainment; time estimates for achieving objectives; military end state and mission success criteria JP 5-0

Step 4 - COA Analysis and Wargaming Wargame each COA against enemy s most likely and most dangerous COAs Better understand operational environment Obtain operational insights Consider all facts and assumptions Types of wargames Simple detailed narrative Formal Blue Force vs Red Force Computer-aided modeling and simulation Concludes when each plan has been refined in detail

Step 5 - COA Comparison Compare refined COAs against pre-determined criteria JFC guidance Warfighting principles Key concepts Doctrine Review criteria definitions to ensure common understanding, refine as necessary Select comparison method Numerical Comparison Advantages & Disadvantages Comparison Plus/Minus/Neutral Comparison The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force

Unweighted Numerical Comparison Matrix Evaluation Criteria Simple Flexible Risk Time Total COA Larry 1 3 2 3 9 COA Moe 1 2 3 1 7 COA Curly 2 1 1 2 6 1 Good 2 OK 3 Bad The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force

Weighted Numerical Comparison Matrix JP 5-0

Step 5 - COA Comparison Determine which COA to recommend to the JFC Based on your analysis Apply operation art using staff estimates Be prepared to explain selection

Step 6 - COA Approval Planning staff briefs COAs and makes their recommendation to JFC JFC presents COAs with his recommendation to CJCS, SECDEF, and POTUS when applicable, for approval

Step 7 - Plan or Order Development Force Planning Support Planning Nuclear Strike Planning (if applicable) Deployment and Redeployment Planning Shortfall Identification Plan/order developed per CJCSM 3122.01 (JOPES) Plan Development Activities include: Feasibility analysis Refinement Documentation Plan review and approval Supporting plan development

JPP Joint Planning Process OPLAN

Planning Processes Step 1: Initiation Step 2: Mission Analysis Step 3: Course of Action (COA) Development Step 4: COA Analysis and Wargaming Step 5: COA Comparison Step 6: COA Approval Step 7: (Air) Plan or Order Development

Operational Approach Summary Operational Design Elements Operation Phasing Joint Planning Process (JPP) Plans are worthless, but planning is everything. - President Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1957

Questions?