RPOS 399: Weapons of Mass Destruction and International Security

RPOS 399: Weapons of Mass Destruction and International Security Professor: Nolan Fahrenkopf Class Times: MWF 12:35-1:30 PM Room: BB 10 Email: npfahrenkopf@albany.edu Office Hours: Uptown, Humanities Building B16 Monday Wednesday Friday, 10:30 AM - 12:30PM Course Description This course explores the broad policy and academic literature related to WMDs. Students will explore the numerous WMD concepts, from nuclear weapons all the way down to modern, and controversial definitions, such as the Boston Bombers. To do this, students will look at both the technical and scientific aspects of WMDs, as well as the policy and academic aspects of their use, construction, and proliferation, by both state AND non-state actors. The course will make use of IR theory, so students should be conversant in the main IR theories. The course will also look at the numerous delivery systems that WMD systems rely on, their proliferation, development, and use outside of the WMD realm. Should the US modernize its nuclear arsenal, is nuclear proliferation a stabilizing force in IR, what issues does Russia s decaying nuclear infrastructure pose to international security and deterrence, are non-state actors truly a WMD threat? These and other policy and academic questions will be addressed throughout the semester, and students will be expected to be conversant in questions related to WMDs, such as these, by the end. Expectations Students are expected to have a working knowledge of the general IR theories and be ready to apply them in both assignments and class discussions. Attendance is mandatory and will be factored into the participation grade. Students are expected to complete all the weekly readings and be able to participate in seminar discussions. Students need to hand in assignments on time, late submissions will suffer from severe late penalties. Course Objectives By the end of the semester, students should be able to: Describe the major technical challenges involved in the construction of chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) weapons as well as their associated delivery systems. Identify what makes certain types of CBRN weapons more effective for state actors and what makes certain types more effective for non-state actors Explain the major issues surrounding the proliferation of nuclear weapons and the role they play in international security 1

Explain the nature of the threat posed by CBRN terrorism Discuss the regional security issues posed by nuclear weapons and the international efforts to prevent proliferation Apply their knowledge of CBRN issues to understanding contemporary events Understand the issues associated with, and be conversant in the broad trend of conventional and WMD proliferation. Grading Participation 20% Students participation grade comes from both regular attendance AND regular participation in seminar discussions. Both the quantity AND quality of contributions are considered in the participation grade. The instructor reserves the right to assign pop quizzes which will go into the participation grade. Getting the Bomb Paper 20% Students will write a 4-6 page paper on the major obstacles that states must overcome to acquire a military nuclear program capable of producing atomic bombs. Students should write this paper from a contemporary perspective. The paper should address the technical challenges, domestic political issues, and international political issues that may serve as obstacles for states efforts to acquire atomic bombs. The use of real-world examples is encouraged. Due: 3/4. Pick Your Poison Brief 20% Students will write a 3-4 page brief paper on a chemical or biological weapons agent. This brief should be considered a primer for high-level policymakers on the particular agent, providing them with a summary description of the agent, the military and terrorism threat it poses, and the preparations the government should undertake to redress that threat. Due: 4/4. Midterm 15% In class midterm exam covering the first half of the semester. Format TBD. March 11th Final Exam 25% This will be a cumulative exam that will cover the entire semester s course material. It will be very difficult to pass for students that do not keep up with the readings and attend lectures. Students should take detailed notes throughout the semester on their readings and during their lectures. Building a running study guide throughout the semester is also suggested. 2

Grading Policy Tests and papers will be graded blind by the instructor. the instructor will be promptly corrected. Any clear mistakes or errors made by Policy on Academic Honesty Please familiarize yourself with the undergraduate bulletin s descriptions of cheating and plagiarism. If you are involved in plagiarism or cheating, the penalty will be failure in the course and you will be reported to judicial affairs. If you are not sure if something violates standards feel free to ask ahead of time. In general, it s always better to err on the side of citing too much than too little in your research papers. Information on the university s policies can be found at: http://www.albany.edu/studentconduct/appendix-c.php. Accommodations Reasonable accommodations will be provided for students with documented physical, sensory, systemic, cognitive, learning and psychiatric disabilities. If you believe you have a disability requiring accommodation in this class, please notify the Director of Disabled Student Services (Campus Center 137, 442-5490). The office will provide the course instructor with verification of your disability, and will recommend appropriate accommodations. For the University s policy, see: http://www.albany.edu/disability/resource.shtml. If you wish to discuss academic accommodations for this class please inform the instructor as soon as possible. Resources The readings for this course will be split between book excerpts and other sources, which will be posted on the blackboard and articles that students will be required to look up themselves using the university s electronic library resources. There are no required text books. Frank Barnaby How to Build a Nuclear Bomb Blackboard Course Schedule Introduction Day 1-1/20 - Discuss Syllabus, Course Organization, Grading, and Class Policies Day 2-1/25: Critiquing the WMD Concept - Wolfgang K. H. Panofsky. 1998. Dismantling the Concept of Weapons of Mass Destruction' Arms Control Today (April). Access at: http://www.armscontrol.org/act/1998_04/wkhp98 3

- George Perkovich. 2006. Deconflating WMD. WMD Commission. Access at: Blackboard Day 3-1/27: A Global Overview of Proliferation - Paul Kerr. 2008. Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Weapons and Missiles: Status and Trends. Congressional Research Service (February 20). Access at: http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/rl30699.pdf. - Joseph Cirincione, Jon Wolfsthal, and Miriam Rajkumar. 2005. Chapter 1 and Maps. In Deadly Arsenals. Access at: http://carnegieendowment.org/2005/07/10/deadlyarsenals-nuclear-biological-and-chemical-threats-second-edition-revised-andexpanded/4ry?reloadflag=1 - Hans Kristensen and Robert Norris. 2013. Global Nuclear Weapons Inventories, 1945-2013. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists69(5): 75-81. Nuclear Weapons Day 4-1/29: History of Nuclear Weapons Development - Sarah Diehl and James Clay Moltz. 2002. History of Nuclear Weapons and Nonproliferation. Nuclear Weapons and Nonproliferation. Santa Barbara: ABC-CLIO, 1-25. - Atomic Archives. 2008. The Manhattan Project: Making the Atomic Bomb. Access at: http://www.atomicarchive.com/history/mp/index.shtml - Joseph Cirincione. 2002. Excerpt. Bomb Scare: The History and Future of Nuclear Weapons. New York. Columbia University Press. Day 5-2/1: How Nuclear Weapons Work and the Consequences of Their Use - Frank Barnaby. 2004. Nuclear Weapons. How to Build a Nuclear Bomb, 15-39. - John Mueller. 2010. Overstating the Effects. Atomic Obsession: Nuclear Alarmism from Hiroshima to Al-Qaeda. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 17-28. - Alex Wellerstein. 2013. Nukemap. Access at: http://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/ - Natural Resources Defense Council. 2002. The Consequences of Nuclear Conflict between India and Pakistan. Access at: http://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/southasia.asp Day 6-2/3: Why States Acquire Nuclear Weapons - Scott Sagan. 1996/1997. Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons? Three Models in Search of a Bomb. International Security 21(3): 54-86. - Jacques Hymans. 2002. Why Do States Acquire Nuclear Weapons? Comparing the Cases of India and France. In D.R. SarDesai and Raju Thomas s Nuclear India in the Twenty-First Century. New York: Palgrave Macmillan. Day 7-2/5: Explaining Nuclear Restraint 4

- Ariel Levite. 2002/2003. Never Say Never Again: Nuclear Reversal Revisited. International Security 27(3): 59-88. - Jacques Hymans. 2001. Of Gauchos and Gringos: Why Argentina Never Wanted the Bomb, and Why the United States Thought It Did. Security Studies 10(3): 153-185. Day 8-2/8: Nuclear Opacity and Hedging / Case Studies: Israel and South Africa - Israel: Nuclear Overview. 2014. Nuclear Threat Initiative. Access at: http://www.nti.org/country-profiles/israel/nuclear/ - Avner Cohen and William Burr. 2006. Israel Crosses the Threshold. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (May/June): 22-30. - David Albright. 1994. South Africa and the Affordable Bomb. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (July/August): 37-47. Day 9-2/10: How to Make Nuclear Weapons - Frank Barnaby. 2004. What Does It Take to Make a WMD? How to Build a Nuclear Bomb, 63-88. - Matthew Bunn and Anthony Wier. 2006. Terrorist Nuclear Weapon Construction: How Difficult? The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 607(September): 133-149. Day 10-2/12: Foreign Nuclear Assistance: Sensitive Assistance - Matthew Kroenig. 2009. Importing the Bomb Sensitive Nuclear Assistance and Nuclear Proliferation, Journal of Conflict Resolution 53 (April): 161-180. - Matthew Kroenig. 2009. Exporting the Bomb: Why States Provide Sensitive Nuclear Assistance, American Political Science Review 103(1):113-133 Day 11-2/15: Foreign Nuclear Assistance: Peaceful Nuclear Assistance - TBD Day 12-2/17: Foreign Nuclear Assistance: Illicit Nuclear Black Markets - Alexander Montgomery. 2005. Ringing in Proliferation. International Security 30(2): 153-187 - David Albright and Corey Hinderstein. 2005. Unraveling the A. Q. Khan and Future Proliferation Networks. The Washington Quarterly 28(Spring): 111 128. Day 13-2/19: Nuclear Deterrence - Thomas Schelling. 1966. The Art of Commitment. Arms and Influence. New Haven: Yale University Press, 35-91. - Keithe Payne. 1996. Introduction. Deterrence in the Second Nuclear Age. Lexington: University of Kentucky Press, 1-16. - Jeffrey Lewis. Minimum Deterrence. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 64(3): 38-41 5

Day 14-2/22: Nuclear Compellence / Blackmail - Matthew Kroenig. 2013. Nuclear Superiority and the Balance of Resolve: Explaining Nuclear Crisis Outcomes, International Organization 67(1): 141-171. - Todd Sechser and Matthew Fuhrmann. 2013. Crisis Bargaining and Nuclear Blackmail. International Organization 67: 173-195. Day 15-2/24: Nuclear Weapons and International Conflict, Pt. I - Scott Sagan and Kenneth Waltz. 2003. Chapters 1-2. The Spread of Nuclear Weapons Day 16: 2/26: Nuclear Weapons and International Conflict, Pt. II - Scott Sagan and Kenneth Waltz. 2003. Chapters 3-5. The Spread of Nuclear Weapons. Day 17-2/29 - Nuclear Weapons and International Security, Conflict, Pt. III - Snyder, Glenn. 1965. The Balance of Power and the Balance of Terror. In Balance of power, ed. Paul Seabury. San Francisco: Chandler. - Sobek, David, Dennis M. Foster, and Samuel B. Robison. "Conventional Wisdom? The Effect of Nuclear Proliferation on Armed Conflict, 1945 2001." International Studies Quarterly 56.1 (2012): 149-162. - Bryan R. Early and Victor Asal. 2015. Minutes to Midnight? Nuclear Weapons, Existential Threats, and International Conflict. Working Paper. Nuclear Nonproliferation Efforts Day 18-3/2: The Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and IAEA - The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Full Text Available at: http://www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/nuclear/npt.shtml - Jean du Preez. 2006. Half Full or Half Empty? Realizing the Promise of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. Arms Control Today (December): 6-12. - Nuclear Threat Initiative. 2013. The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Access at: http://www.nti.org/treaties-and-regimes/treaty-on-the-nonproliferation-of-nuclear-weapons/ Day 19-3/4: Other Nuclear Arms Control Treaties (Getting the Bomb Paper due) - Arms Control Association. 2014. U.S.-Russia Arms Control Agreements at a Glance. Access at: http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/usrussianuclearagreementsmarch2010 6

- Amy Wolf. 2014. The New START Treaty: Central Limits and Key Provisions. Congressional Research Service. Available at: http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/r41219.pdf. - Tom Z. Collina with Daryl G. Kimball. 2010. Now More Than Ever: The Case for the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. Arms Control Association Briefing Book. Available at: http://www.armscontrol.org/system/files/aca_ctb_briefing_book.pdf Day 20-3/7: UNSCR 1540 and the Multilateral Export Control Regimes - Douglas Stinnett, Bryan Early, Cale Horne, and Johannes Karreth. 2011. Complying by Denying: Explaining Why States Develop Nonproliferation Export Controls. International Studies Perspectives 12(3): 308-326. - Nuclear Suppliers Group at a Glance. 2006. Arms Control Association. Access at: http://www.armscontrol.org/system/files/nsg.pdf Day 21-3/9: Counter-Proliferation Efforts - Sarah E. Kreps and Matthew Fuhrmann. 2011. Attacking the Atom: Does Bombing Nuclear Facilities Affect Proliferation? Journal of Strategic Studies 34 (2): 161-187. - Malfrid Braut-Hegghammer. 2011. Revisiting Osirak: Preventive Attacks and Nuclear Proliferation Risks. International Security 36(1): 101-132. Day 22-3/11: Midterm Day 23-3/14 No Class Day 24-3/16 No Class Day 25-3/18 No Class Biological and Chemical Weapons Day 26-3/21 Biological Weapons - Frank Barnaby. 2004. Biological Weapons. How to Build a Nuclear Bomb, 41-53. - Federation of American Scientists. 2010. Biological Threat Agents Information. Access at: http://www.fas.org/programs/ssp/bio/resource/agents.html#rvf Day 27 3/23: Chemical Weapons - Frank Barnaby. 2004. Chemical Weapons. How to Build a Nuclear Bomb, 55-64. 7

- Federation of American Scientists. 2010. Types of Chemical Agents. Access at: http://www.fas.org/programs/bio/chemweapons/cwagents.html Day 28-3/28: Chemical and Biological Weapons and the Dual-Use Dilemma - Jonathan B. Tucker. 1994. Dilemmas of a Dual-Use Technology: Toxins in Medicine and Warfare. Politics and Life Sciences 13(1): 51-62. - Kathleen Vogel. 2006. Bioweapons Proliferation: Where Science Studies and Public Policy Collide. Social Studies of Science 36(5): 659-690. Day 29-3/30: Why States Want Chemical and Biological Weapons - Richard Price. 1995. A Genealogy of the Chemical Weapons Taboo. International Organization 49(1): 73-103. - Gregory Koblentz. 2004. Pathogens as Weapons: The International Security Implications of Biological Warfare. International Security 28(3): 84-122. - Michael Horowitz and Neil Narang. 2013. Poor Man s Atomic Bomb? Exploring the Relationship between Weapons of Mass Destruction. Journal of Conflict Resolution (Web-First). Day 30-4/1: International Arms Control Efforts - Australia Group at a Glance. 2012. Arms Control Association. Access at: http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/australiagroup - WMD Commission. 2006. Chapter 4: Biological and Toxin Weapons. Weapons of Terror: Freeing the World of Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Arms. Stockholm: WMD Commission. - WMD Commission. 2006. Chapter 5: Chemical Weapons. Weapons of Terror: Freeing the World of Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Arms. Stockholm: WMD Commission. Both Available at http://www.blixassociates.com/wpcontent/uploads/2011/02/weapons_of_terror.pdf Ballistic Missiles Day 31-4/4: Ballistic Missiles: Strategic Significance and Proliferation Issues (Pick your Poison Paper Due - WMD Commission. 2006. Chapter 6: Delivery Means, Missile Defences, and Weapons in Space. Weapons of Terror: Freeing the World of Nuclear, Biological and Chemical 8

Arms. Stockholm: WMD Commission. http://www.blixassociates.com/wpcontent/uploads/2011/02/weapons_of_terror.pdf Day 32-4/6: Ballistic Missile Proliferation - Dinshaw Mistry. 2003. Building a Comprehensive Regime to Contain Ballistic Missile Proliferation. International Security 27(4): 119-149. - Missile Technology Control Regime. 2014. Official Website. Access at: http://www.mtcr.info/english/ Day 33-4/8: TBD Day 34-4/11: TBD CBRN Terrorism Day 35-4/13: Nuclear and Radiological Terrorism: Part I - Charles Ferguson and William Potter. 2004. Chapters 1-2. Four Faces of Nuclear Terrorism. Monterey: Monterey Institute Center for Nonproliferation Studies. - Michael Levi and Henry Kelly. 2002. Weapons of Mass Disruption. Scientific American (November). Access at: http://www.fas.org/ssp/docs/021000-sciam.pdf Day 36-4/15: Nuclear and Radiological Terrorism: Part II - Matt Bunn and Susan Martin. 2010. Is Nuclear Terrorism a Real Threat? In Stuart Gottlieb s Debating Terrorism and Counterterrorism. Washington, DC: CQ Press, 166-200. - Keir Lieber and Daryl Press. 2013. Why States Won t Give Nuclear Weapons to Terrorists. International Security 38(1): 80-104. Day 37-4/18: Chemical Terrorism - Jonathon Tucker. 2008. Chemical Terrorism: Assessing Threats and Responses. In Russell Howard and James Forest s Weapons of Mass Destruction and Terrorism. New York: McGraw Hill, 212-226. - Mark Juergensmeyer. 2003. Armageddon in Tokyo Subway. Terror in the Mind of God: the Global Rise of religious Violence. Berkley: University of California Press, 106-120. Day 38-4/20: Bioterrorism - Gary Ackerman and Kevin Moran. 2006. Bioterrorism and Threat Assessment. WMD Commission. Access at: http://www.un.org/disarmament/education/wmdcommission/files/no22.pdf 9

- Malcom Dando. 2005. The Bioterrorist Cookbook. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientist (November/December). Day 39-4/22: No Class Cases Analyses of WMD Security and Proliferation Issues Day 40-4/25: The United States - Nuclear Threat Initiative. 2014. United States Country Profile. Access at: http://www.nti.org/country-profiles/united-states/ - Amy Woolf. 2008. Nuclear Weapons in U.S. National Security Policy: Past, Present, and Prospects. Congressional Research Service (December 30). Access at: http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/rl34226.pdf - Amy Woolf. 2013. U.S. Strategic Nuclear Forces: Background, Developments, and Issues. Congressional Research Service (October 22). Access at: http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/rl33640.pdf - Jon Wolfsthal, Jeffrey Lewis, and Marc Quint. 2014. The Trillion Dollar Triad. James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. Available at: http://cns.miis.edu/opapers/pdfs/140107_trillion_dollar_nuclear_triad.pdf Day 41-4/24: Russia - Nuclear Threat Initiative. 2014. Russia Country Profile. Access at: http://www.nti.org/country-profiles/russia/nuclear/ - Jeffrey M. Bale. 2004. The Chechen Resistance and Radiological Terrorism. Nuclear Threat Initiative. Access at: http://www.nti.org/e_research/e3_47a.html - Anatoly Diakov, Eugene Miasnikov, and Timur Kadyshev. 2011. Nuclear Reductions After New START: Obstacles and Opportunities. Arms Control Today (May). Access at: http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2011_05/miasnikov. Day 42-4/27: Pakistan - Nuclear Threat Initiative. 2014. Pakistan Country Profile. Access at: http://www.nti.org/country-profiles/pakistan/nuclear/ - Jeffrey Goldberg and Marc Ambinder. 2011. Ally from Hell. The Atlantic (Oct. 28). Access at: http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2011/12/the-ally-fromhell/308730/ - Naeem Salik and Kenneth N. Luongo. 2013. Challenges for Pakistan s Nuclear Security. Arms Control Today (March). Access at: http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2013_03/challenges-for-pakistans-nuclear-security - Victor Asal and Bryan Early. 2012. Are We Focusing on the Wrong Nuclear Threat? Foreign Policy Online. Access at: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/05/24/are_we_focusing_on_the_wrong_nucl ear_threat 10

Day 43-4/29: North Korea - Nuclear Threat Initiative. 2014. North Korea Country Profile. Access at: http://www.nti.org/country-profiles/north-korea/ - Jacques E. C. Hymans. 2007. North Korea s Neurosis. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 63(3): 44-49, 74. - Larry Niksch. 2010. North Korea s Nuclear Weapons Development and Diplomacy. Congressional Research Service (May 27). Access at: https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/rl33590.pdf - Joshua Pollack. 2011. Ballistic Trajectory: The Evolution of North Korea s Ballistic Missile Market. Nonproliferation Review 18(2): 411-429. Day 44-5/1: Iran - Nuclear Threat Initiative. 2014. Iran Country Profile. Access at: http://www.nti.org/country-profiles/iran/ - Jacques. Hymans and M.S. Gratias. 2013. Iran and the Nuclear Threshold: Where is the Line? Nonproliferation Review 20 (1): 13-38. - Other Readings TBD Day 45-5/4: China - Nuclear Threat Initiative. 2014. China Country Profile. Access at: http://www.nti.org/country-profiles/china/ - Shirley Kan. 2014. China and Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction and Missiles: Policy Issues. Congressional Research Service (Jan. 3). Access at: http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/rl31555.pdf Day 46-5/6: Conclusion 11