Regional Demographic Shifts and Their Implications for Higher Education Minnesota State University Moorhead Forum Moorhead, MN Dec. 1, 2008 Dr. Richard Rathge Professor and Director North Dakota State Data Center Material also provided by Tom Stinson, Minnesota State Economist Tom Gillaspy, Minnesota State Demographer 1 North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
Presentation Objective: e: 1. Review regional population movement 2. Discuss implications for labor force 3. Briefly explore impact of demographics on Higher Education 2 North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
Population Change for MN, ND,SD, 1992-2020 7000 sands) Populatio on (in thou 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Minnesota North Dakota South Dakota 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2010 2020 3 North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
4 North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center, September 2008 5
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center, September 2008 6
Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center, September 2008 7
Projected Percent Change in Total Population in the Great Plains States by County: 2000 to 2020 Note: For purposes of this study, the Great Plains is defined as all counties in Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses; Individual state agencies providing population projections Decrease: -10% or more Decrease: 0% to -9.9% Increase: 0% to 19.9% 9% Increase: 20% to 59.9% Increase: 60% or more 8 North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
Minnesota Has 5 Ruralplexes (And One Metroplex) RURALPLEX Northwest Valley Up North Central Lakes Sourthwest Corn Belt Southeast River Valley Metroplex
Population Change 1970 to 2000 And 2005 to 2015 1970-2000 2005-15 Av erage Ann ual Rate of Growth 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% 0.17% 0.53% 0.58% Northwest Valley 0.06% 06% Up North 1.27% 1.02% Central Lakes -0.56% 0.05% 05% Southwest Corn Belt 0.47% 0.17% Southeast River Valley 1.25% 1.06% Metroplex
Most Ruralplex See Little Natural Increase Natural Increase Migration Rate Per 1000 Population in 2000 50 40 30 20 10 0-10 -20-30 -40 41.6 14.5 11.8 5.1 7.0-0.2 1.8 0.2-2.0-27.3 Northwest Up North Central Southwest Southeast Valley Lakes Corn Belt River Valley 35.8 12.4 Metroplex Census Bureau estimates
N.D. Rural-Urban Population Distribution, 1900-2020 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Decennial Censuses. Percent 100 92.7 Rural 89 86.4 83.4 79.5 73.4 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 7.3 11 13.6 16.6 20.6 26.6 64.8 35.2 Urban 55.7 51.2 53.3 54.6 46.7 44.3 48.8 45.4 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2020 Year 40.9 59.1 Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center May 2008 12
North Dakota Cass County 4 similar il counties 40 similar counties McIntosh County Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center May 2008 13
Percent Change in Total Population Estimatesfor t North Dakota by County: July 1, 2005 to July 1, 2006 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, Table 1. Annual Estimates of the Population for Counties: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2006 (CO-EST2006-01-38), www.census.gov/popest/ estimates.php. Divide Williams Burke Bottineau Rolette Cavalier Pembina Renville Towner Mountrail Ward McHenry Pierce Benson Ramsey Walsh United States = 1.0% North Dakota = 0.2% Loss: -2.1%to-4.1% Loss: -0.0% to -2.0% Gain: 0.0% to 2.0% McKenzie Nelson Grand Forks McLean Eddy Dunn Mercer Sheridan Wells Foster Griggs Steele Traill Billings Oliver Golden Valley Stark Morton Burleigh Kidder Stutsman Barnes Cass Slope Hettinger Grant Emmons Logan LaMoure Ransom Richland Bowman Adams Sioux McIntosh Dickey Sargent Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center May 2008 14
A Maturing Age Distribution, 2000 (National data) Male 85+ 80-84 84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-2929 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Female 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Population (in millions) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base. 15 North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
A Maturing Age Distribution, 2020 Male 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Female 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Population (in millions) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base. 16 North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
Baby Boomers enter system 1.825 million/yr or 5,000 a day (on average) Baby Boomers enter age 85 North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc 17 Source: Older Americans 2004
Persons Ages 65 and Older as a Percent of the Total Population in North Dakota by County: 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 Divide Burke Renville Bottineau Rolette Towner Cavalier Pembina Williams Mountrail Ward McHenry Pierce Benson Ramsey Walsh McKenzie Dunn McLean Mercer Sheridan Wells Eddy Foster Nelson Griggs Grand Forks Steele Traill Golden Valley Billings Stark Oliver Morton Burleigh Kidder Stutsman Barnes Cass Slope Hettinger Grant Emmons Logan LaMoure Ransom Richland Bowman Adams Sioux McIntosh Dickey Sargent Less than 15% 15% to 21.9% 22% to 27.9% 28% or more Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center, September 2008 18
Persons Ages 65 and Older as a Percent of the Total Population in North Dakota by County: 2020 Source: North Dakota State Data Center, North Dakota Population Projections: 2005 to 2020, Sept. 2002 Divide Renville Burke Bottineau Rolette Cavalier Towner Pembina Williams Mountrail Ward McHenry Pierce Benson Ram sey Walsh Nelson Grand Forks McKenzie Dunn Mercer McLean Sheridan Wells Eddy Foster Griggs Steele Traill Billings Oliver Burleigh Kidder Stutsman Barnes Cass Stark Morton Slope Hettinger Grant Emm ons Logan LaMoure Ransom Richland Bowman Adams Sioux McIntosh Dickey Sargent Less than 15% 15% to 21.9% 22% to 27.9% 28% or more Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center, September 2008 19
Projected Change in Population 2005 to 2015 60% Total Age 55-64 50% 40% 37.0% 35.9% 41.8% 34.7% 38.3% 45.9% 30% 20% 10% 0% 13.5% 5.4% 6.0% 4.8% 0.5% Northwest Up North Central Southwest Southeast Valley Lakes Corn Belt River Valley 11.1% Metroplex
2000 Census Rural and Urban Population Distributions by Age and Gender for North Dakota Traditional Babyboom X Generation Y Generation Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center May 2008 21
60 Figure 2. Age-Specific Net Migration: Farm 40 20 0-20 -40-60 0-4 5-9 10-14 14-19 20-24 24-29 30-34 34-39 40-44 44-49 50-54 54-59 60-64 64-69 70-74 75+ 1950's 1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center May 2008 22
60 Figure 4. Age-Specific Net Migration: Metro 40 20 0-20 -40-60 0-4 5-9 10-14 14-19 20-24 24-29 30-34 34-39 40-44 44-49 50-54 54-59 60-64 64-69 70-74 75+ 1950's 1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center May 2008 23
MN, ND, and SD Residents who have Moved in Past Year by Age, 2006 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Total Movers by State 14.7% 17.6% 17.0% 1 to 17 18 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 64 65 plus 30% 20% 10% 0% All Movers Movers to a All Movers Movers to a All Movers Movers to a Different Different Different County County County Minnesota North Dakota South Dakota Universe: Persons 1 year and older Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 ACS, Table B07001. 24 North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
Ruralplex Are Older And Have A Lower Proportion Of Children 65+ Under 15 25% 20% 15% 17.4% 20.1% 15.7% 19.3% 20.4% 19.5% 20.3% 20.4% 16.9% 15.7% 22.3% 10% 99% 9.9% 5% 0% Northwest Up North Central Southwest Southeast Valley Lakes Corn Belt River Valley Metroplex
Population of Persons Ages 0 to 9 and Ages 65 and Older North Dakota: 1890 to 2002 180,000 150,000 120,000 90,000 60,000000 30,000 0 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2002 Age 0 to 9 Age 65 and Older Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center March 2007 North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - Fax: (701) 231-9730 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc 26
Presentation Objective: e: 1. Review regional population movement 2. Discuss implications for labor force 3. Briefly explore impact of demographics on Higher Education 27 North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
Labor Force Will Grow, But Slowly In Some Areas 14% 12% 12.2% 12.0% Cha ange 2005 5-15 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 5.9% 4.7% 2.2% 5.4% 0% Northwest Valley Up North Central Lakes Southwest Corn Belt Southeast River Valley Metroplex
Labor Force Over Age 45 Will Increase Much More Rapidly % Change 45+LF % Change Under 45 LF CHan nge 2005-15 5 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 11.9% 1.4% 7.9% 25% 2.5% 18.5% 7.4% 9.5% 12.9% 0.1% 25.0% 4.3% -5% -10% Northwest Valley Up North Central Lakes -3.8% Southwest Corn Belt Southeast River Valley Metroplex
Projected Change 2005 to 2015 Population Age 15 To 24 Future Work Force 1% 01% 0.1% -1% -3% -5% -3.1% -7% -9% -7.9% -8.2% -11% -13% -9.7% -11.3% Northwest Up North Central Southwest Southeast Valley Lakes Corn Belt River Valley Metroplex
Change in North Dakota s Labor Force by Age: 1970 to 2020 Change in Labor Forc ce (Persons) 80,000 60,000 40,000000 20,000 0-20,000-40,000 1970 to 1980 1980 to 1990 1990 to 2000 2000 to 2006 2006 to 2010 2010 to 2015 2015 to 2020 65 plus 45 to 64 35 to 44 20 to 34 Note: The change in labor force participation was calculated for 2010, 2015, and 2020 by applying the 2006 ACS labor force participation rates to the population projections. Sources - U.S. Census Bureau: 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000 Census; 2006 ACS. North Dakota State Data Center: North Dakota Population Projections by Age and Gender: 2010, 2015, 2020 31 North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
North Dakota s Labor Force Participation i i Rates by Age: 1980 to 2006 90% 80% Percent in Labor Force 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 1980 1990 2000 2006 10% 0% 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69 70 plus 32 North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc Sources - U.S. Census Bureau: 1980, 1990 and 2000 Census; 2006 ACS
Presentation Objective: e: 1. Review regional population movement 2. Discuss implications for labor force 3. Briefly explore impact of demographics on Higher Education 33 North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
Historical and Projected Change in ND K-12 Enrollment 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 1 0.5 0-0.5-1 -1.5-2 -2.5-3 -3.5-4 Percent Change from Previous Year Source: Department of Public Instruction
Resident Live Births, 1962-2007 and High School Graduates, 1980-2007 in North Dakota Source: North Dakota Department of Health; North Dakota Department of Public Instruction, Bismarck ND.
Resident Live Births, 1962-2007 and High School Graduates, 1980-2007 in Minnesota 36 North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
Demographic Presentation 2008 Dr. Richard Rathge, Director North Dakota State Data Center, Fargo, ND NDSU, IACC 424, Fargo, ND 58105 Richard.Rathge@ndsu.edu Phone: (701) 231-8621 Fax: (701) 231-9730 URL: www.ndsu.edu/sdc 37 North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND 58105 - Phone: (701) 231-8621 - URL: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc