At War in the Pacific Lecture Three FDR to Frank Knox, December 1940 ò This is a period of flux. I want no authorizations for what may happen beyond July 1, 1942. All of us may be dead when that time comes! ò -- FDR to Frank Knox, December 23, 1940, PSF 59, FDRL 1
Brief Review of Last Week ò Japan s Quagmire in China ò Resistance of China ò Is Chiang Underappreciated? ò Hirohito and Japan ò Has Hirohito s Role Been Underplayed? ò FDR s Challenges Preview of Today s Lecture Key Events Preceding Pearl Harbor ò Northern Indochina, Sept. 1940 ò Embargo, Sept. 1940 ò All of Indochina, July 1941 ò Embargo, July 1941 ò Hull-Nomura Talks, 1941 ò Do We Give Too Much Emphasis to Pearl Harbor? 2
Gordon Prange FDR s Elusive Road to Recovery 3
Building the Navy! Fleets Took Time to Build! 1938: 20% expansion! Two-Ocean Navy, 1940! $5 Billion! 326 ships, including 10 carriers, 70 subs! Naval Spending in Perspective to Budgets! Miracles of Industrial Productivity (Knox) Two-Track Policy Toward Japan Naval Build-Up Diplomacy (Hull) 4
US Fleet Redeployed to Hawaii May 1940 Concerns About Air Power Guernica, April 1937 Shanghai, August 1937 5
10/23/15 FDR Establishes Aviation Plattsburgh, May 1940! 50,000 planes a year! Pilots? Thinking Ahead to 1940! Plans for postpresidency! Library; Colliers $75,000! Louis Howe s Last Testament? 6
FDR Remains Coy About 1940 (Sharing Private Joke with Kate Hepburn, Summer 1940)! Early Indications He Did Not Plan to Run! Kept Options Open! Influenced By War! Jim Farley and John Nance Garner! GOP Nominee? 1940 Democratic Convention 7
Consequences of the Collapse of France ò Spring of 1940 in Europe sent shock waves throughout Asia ò Collapse of the Netherlands and France enticed Tokyo with the prospect of sweeping southward Japan Joins Winning Side ò Hitler with Ambassador Saburo Kurusu and Count Ciano 8
Matsuoka, Potsdam, 1940 Exploiting European War ò American Concerns About Hitler and Coordination with the Japanese Fleet Japanese Propaganda Poster for the Tripartite Pact 9
The American Position, 1940! 9/22: Japan deploys in northern Indochina! 9/26: US embargoes aviation gasoline, highgrade iron, scrap metal! 9/27: Tripartite Pact! October: Decoding and War Scare October: Decoding and War Scare (Yarnell, Stark, Knox, Richardson) 10
The 1940 Campaign The 1940 Election 11
Raid on Taranto, Italy November 11-12, 1940 ò Fairey Swordfish ò Port Arthur, 1904: Strategic Inspiration ò Taranto, 1940: Tactical Inspiration ò U.S. Concerns: British modified aerial torpedoes for Taranto s shallow depths Tokyo, Washington, and Taranto (Pictured: Pearl Harbor) 12
Plan Dog, November 1940! Germany First! Delaying Tactics re Japan! Relevant to Pearl Harbor Speculation Admiral Harold Stark Leahy and Stark in Civvies 13
Reverse Engineered Purple Device Did Purple Unintentionally Mislead? 14
Knox Inspects Defenses at Pearl Harbor, September 1940 ò 1924 Mitchell report warning of air attack ò 1932, 1938 fleet exercises Knox s Pearl Harbor Warnings, January 1941 ò Also, Ambassador Joe Grew in January 1941 ò Grew could not credit such a fantastic rumor 15
Japan and Germany Discuss Joint Plans ò Hitler, Ribbentrop, Ambassador Kurusu, February 3, 1941 Matsuoka and Hitler (March 1941) 16
Japanese Military Spending ò Year Military Budget % of Total ò 1931 400 million 29% ò 1933 900 million 39% ò 1935 1 billion 47% ò 1939 6.5 billion 72% Matsuoka Signing Neutrality Pact, Moscow, April 1941 17
Japanese-Soviet Neutrality ò Frees Japan for expansion elsewhere ò Japan takes all of Indochina in July Negotiations, 1941 18
Cordell Hull ò February 1941- ò Hull and Ambassador Kichisaburō Nomura Nomura presents credentials to FDR, February 1941 ò Well Known to FDR ò Warned Tokyo about Indochina ò Warned Tokyo About American Seriousness and preparedness ò Tokyo Disregarded ò Embargo of oil 19
The Enigma of Richard Sorge ò Stalin's James Bond ò The most formidable spy in history. - Ian Fleming ò There's this bastard who s deigned to report the date of the German attack as 22 June. Are you suggesting I should believe him too? -- Stalin on Richard Sorge ò Warned of Barbarossa; and Japan Turning South! Barbarossa, June 22, 1941 20
Magic intercept, July 14: ò [Indochina s] purpose is, when the international situation is suitable, to launch there from a rapid attack next on our schedule the sending of an ultimatum to the Netherlands Indies. ò Naval Chief Nagano suggested war with US on July 21, five days before the US sanctions Nomura s Efforts 21
Sumner Welles on the China Question ò Negotiating a US- Japanese understanding without settling the China question was like asking whether the play of Hamlet could be given on the stage without the character of Hamlet. 22