ABC NEWS POLL: NORTH KOREA/IRAQ 1/5/03 EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 6:30 P.M. Monday, Jan. 6, 2003 Public Backs Same Goals, Different Means In Dealing With Iraq and North Korea Eight in 10 Americans say the United States should try to block North Korea from developing nuclear weapons but unlike views on Iraq, diplomatic and economic approaches win far more support than a military confrontation. Concerns about both countries are high. But Americans by a 20-point margin, 55-35 percent, see Iraq as a bigger threat to the United States. In dealing with Pyongyang, 70 percent in this ABC News poll support a diplomatic effort offering U.S. economic aid in exchange for cessation of North Korea s nuclear weapons program. And two-thirds say they d support an effort to punish North Korea with an international economic embargo unless it gives up its nuclear program. But support for military action is much lower. Forty percent favor air strikes against North Korea's nuclear facilities, while 52 percent are opposed; and 31 say they d support a U.S.-led ground war to destroy its nuclear capability, while 62 percent are opposed. IRAQ These stand in sharp contrast to views on Iraq, where a near-unanimous 95 percent say the United States should try to block nuclear weapons development, and the military options command far broader support. Sixty-eight percent say they d favor air strikes against Iraqi nuclear weapons facilities, and 63 percent say they d support a U.S.- led ground war to destroy Iraq s ability to make nuclear weapons. Support for aid-backed diplomacy, meanwhile, is 14 points lower for Iraq than it is for North Korea. 100% 90% Support for Action vs Nuclear Weapons Capability ABC News Poll 80% 60% 67% Diplomacy/economic aid Economic embargo Air strikes vs nuclear facilities Groud war vs nuclear capability 56% 68% 63% 50% 40% 40% 30% 31% 20% 10% 0% North Korea Iraq
In dealing with Support for: North Korea Iraq Diff. Diplomacy/economic aid 56-14 Economic embargo 67 70 +3 Air strikes vs nuclear facilities 40 68 +28 Ground war vs nuclear capability 31 63 +32 Previous polling has shown that support for military action against Iraq depends on the circumstances posited - such as the level of casualties, the presence or lack of allied support, and in this formulation, the specific goal of removing Iraq s nuclear-weapons capability. Actual support for military action, should it occur, will depend on the actual circumstances. WORRY Concerns about nuclear weapons in the hands of these nations are high, but no higher than they were two months ago and in Iraq s case, actually lower. In an ABC News poll in early November 53 percent were very worried about Iraq s efforts to develop nuclear weapons; it s 43 percent now. Thirty-eight percent are very worried about North Korea s nuclear efforts, about the same as it was. As befits the potential consequences, both these are higher than the 27 percent who are very worried about the direction of the U.S. economy over the next few years. Worried Very worried Iraq s efforts to develop nuclear weapons 79% 43 North Korea s efforts to develop nuclear weapons 79 38 Direction of U.S. economy in the next few years 67 27 CHANGED WORLD This poll also shows how the world has changed. Twenty years ago Americans overwhelmingly cited the Soviet Union as the greatest threat to world peace. Back in July 2001, during the EP-3 spy plane flap, it was China. Today Iraq leads the list, cited by 33 percent; and second is North Korea, at 18 percent. Greatest threat to world peace: 1/03 7/01 9/91 9/81 Iraq 33% 13 20 -- North Korea 18 1 -- -- China 10 35 10 5 United States 10 8 7 7 Iran 3 5 5 5 Russia/Soviet Union 2 10 25 72 METHODOLOGY This ABC News poll was conducted by telephone Jan. 2-5, 2003, among a random national sample of 1,044 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Fieldwork by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, PA. Analysis by Gary Langer. ABC News polls can be found at ABCNEWS.com on the Internet at: http://abcnews.go.com/sections/us/pollvault/pollvault.html Media contact: Cathie Levine, (212) 456-4934 Results follow; more to be released.
*= less than 0.5 percent This ABC News poll was conducted by telephone January 2-5, 2003, among a random national sample of 1,044 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Fieldwork by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, PA. *= less than 0.5 percent 1-3 Held for release. 4. On another subject, if you had to name one nation that you might consider the greatest threat to world peace, which nation would that be? 1/5/03 7/22/01 9/1/91 9/20/81 Iraq 33 13 20 -- North Korea 18 1 -- -- China 10 35 10 5 United States 10 8 7 7 Other Arab nations 4 3 4 2 Iran 3 5 5 5 Russia/Soviet Union 2 10 25 72 Afghanistan 2 -- -- -- Iraq and North Korea equally 2 0 0 0 Israel 1 2 2 4 Japan 1 2 2 -- Pakistan 1 -- -- -- Libya * * 1 2 Cuba * * 2 1 Canada * -- -- -- Other 2 6 10 4 DK/No opinion 12 14 13 -- 5. Which of these two nations do you think poses a greater threat to the United States - (North Korea) or (Iraq)? North Korea Iraq Both (vol.) Neither (vol.) No opin. 1/5/03 35 55 7 2 2 6. How do you feel about (READ ITEM) - very worried, somewhat worried, not too worried or not worried at all? 1/5/03 - Summary Table: NET Very Smwt. NET Not too At all op. a. Efforts by North Korea to develop nuclear weapons 79 38 41 20 14 6 1 b. Efforts by Iraq to develop nuclear weapons 79 43 36 21 14 7 1 c. The direction of the nation's economy over the next few years 67 27 40 31 22 10 1 Trend: a. Efforts by North Korea to develop nuclear weapons 1/5/03 79 38 41 20 14 6 1 11/4/02 LV 80 37 43 19 13 6 1 11/3/02 LV 79 35 44 20 13 7 1 11/2/02 LV 81 41 40 18 12 6 1 10/27/02 82 36 46 16 9 7 2 10/27/02 LV 87 38 49 13 6 7 0
b. Efforts by Iraq to develop nuclear weapons 1/5/03 79 43 36 21 14 7 1 11/4/02 LV 85 53 31 15 11 4 1 11/3/02 LV 83 53 31 16 11 4 1 11/2/02 LV 87 57 29 13 10 3 * 10/27/02 87 53 34 12 6 6 1 10/27/02 LV 90 57 34 10 5 5 0 c. The direction of the nation's economy over the next few years 1/5/03 67 27 40 31 22 10 1 11/4/02 LV 76 34 42 23 17 6 1 11/3/02 LV 75 33 42 24 17 7 1 11/2/02 LV 73 32 41 26 19 8 1 10/27/02 75 27 48 23 16 7 2 10/27/02 LV 76 32 45 23 16 7 1 7. Which of these should be a higher priority for the Bush administration - (the economy), or (the possibility of war with Iraq)? Economy Iraq Both (vol.) Neither (vol.) No opin. 1/5/03 44 45 10 1 1 8. (HALF SAMPLE) As you may know, North Korea recently announced that it is developing nuclear weapons, and it cancelled international inspections of its nuclear facilities. Do you think the United States should (allow North Korea to develop nuclear weapons), or should (try to block North Korea from developing nuclear weapons)? Should allow Should try to block No opin. 1/5/03 10 82 7 9. (HALF SAMPLE) If the United States has evidence that Iraq is trying to develop nuclear weapons, do you think the United States should (allow Iraq to develop nuclear weapons), or should (try to block Iraq from developing nuclear weapons)? Should allow Should try to block No opin. 1/5/03 3 95 2 10. As part of an effort to block (HALF SAMPLES) North Korea/Iraq from developing nuclear weapons, would you support or oppose (READ ITEM). How about (NEXT ITEM). ------North Korea------ ----------Iraq--------- Support Oppose No op. Support Oppose No op. a. A diplomatic effort to get North Korea/Iraq to drop its Nuclear weapons program in exchange for economic aid from the United States? 70 24 7 56 39 5 b. An effort to punish North Korea/Iraq with an international economic embargo unless it drops its nuclear weapons program? 67 27 6 70 24 6 c. U.S.-led air strikes against nuclear weapons facilities in North Korea/Iraq? 40 52 8 68 26 6 d. A U.S.-led ground war against North Korea/Iraq to destroy its nuclear weapons capability? 31 62 7 63 32 6 ***END***