GEM 2010 Global Report Global Entrepreneurship Monitor By Donna Kelley, Niels Bosma and Jose Ernesto Amoros 2010 Global Report Launch presentation 20 January 2010 Washington, DC Donna Kelley Niels Bosma José Ernesto Amorós
GEM 1999: 10 Economies
Latin America and Caribbean GEM 2010: 59 Economies More than 80 economies have participated over 12 years United States and Western Europe Factor-Driven Jamaica, Guatemala, Bolivia Innovation- Driven Efficiency- Driven Innovation-Driven Innovation- Driven MENA/Sout h Asia Peru, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay Innovation- Factor-Bosnia Efficiency- and Belgium, Denmark, DrivenHerzegovina, Finland, DrivenFrance, Driven Germany, Egypt, Greece, Iran, Croatia, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Eastern Netherlands, Pakistan, Hungary, Norway, Portugal, Factor- Efficiency- Spain, Europe Sweden, Saudi Switzerland, Latvia, United Factor- Driven Driven Kingdom, Macedonia, Efficiency- Tunisia Slovenia Israel Arabia, Efficiency-Driven United States West Bank Montenegro, Driven Malaysia, Argentina, and Asia Angola, Brazil, Gaza Romania, Vanuatu China, Chile, Sub- Colombia, Pacific Ghana, Russia, South Saharan Taiwan Costa Rica, Uganda, Turkey Africa Ecuador, Africa Mexico, Zambia Australia, Japan, Republic of Korea Over 175,000 adult individuals surveyed in 2010 3,165 experts surveyed for the National Expert Survey
Consider Development Level When Designing Entrepreneurship Initiatives Factor-Driven Economies From subsistence agriculture to extraction of natural resources, creating regional scaleintensive agglomerations. Efficiency-Driven Economies Increased industrialization and economies of scale. Large firms dominate, but supply chain niches open up for small and medium enterprises. Innovation-Driven Economies R&D, knowledge intensity, and expanding service sector. Greater potential for innovative entrepreneurial activity. Basic Requirements Efficiency Enhancers Entrepreneurship Conditions
Social, Cultural, Political Context Basic requirements - Institutions - Infrastructure - Macroeconomic stability - Health and primary education Efficiency enhancers - Higher education & training - Goods market efficiency - Labor market efficiency - Financial market sophistication - Technological readiness - Market size Innovation and entrepreneurship - Entrepreneurial finance - Government policy - Government entrepreneurship programs - Entrepreneurship education - R&D transfer - Internal market openness - Physical infrastructure for entrepreneurship - Commercial, legal infrastructure for entrepreneurship - Cultural and social norms Established Firms (Primary Economy) New plants, firm growth Entrepreneurship Attitudes: Perceived opportunities Perceived capacity Activity: Early-stage Persistence Exits Aspirations: Growth Innovation Social value creation GEM Model National Economic Growth (Jobs and Technical Innovation)
Measuring Entrepreneurship Activity Discontinuation of Business Potential Entrepreneur: Opportunities, Knowledge, and Skills Total Early-Stage Entrepreneurial Activity (TEA) Ensure Both Dynamism and Stability Nascent Entrepreneur: Involved in Setting Up a Business Owner- Manager of a New Business (up to 3.5 years old) Owner- Manager of an Established Business (more than 3.5 years old) Conception Firm Birth Persistence
Key Message: Entrepreneurs Create Jobs 250 million people starting and running new businesses in the 59 economies 63 million expect to hire at least five employees 27 million expecting to hire at least twenty employees
Percentage of 18 64 population 2011, by Donna Kelley, Niels Bosma, Jose Ernesto Amoros and the Total Early-Stage Entrepreneurial Activity in 2010 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 PK GH ZM UG EG AO PE EC CO BR GT CL ME CN AR CR UY JM IR MX LV TW ZA BA MK TR TN MY RO GH 12 AO Encourage Opportunity ZM TT SA AU HU KR NL UK IL FR IE FI HR GR SE ESDE RU PT SI JP BEDK 0 20 40 60 GDP per capita in Purchasing Power Parities ($), in thousands IT IS US SW NO 20 18 16 UG 14 Facilitate Necessity, 10 8 6 4 2 0 Necessity-Driven Early-Stage Entrepreneurial Activity in 2010 VU CO BO CN EC PE ME AR JM BR IR CL MK EG CR PK BA ZA TR UY KR GT TW LV HR TT IE MX ILGR FR TN RO HU JP FI DE IS AU MY RU UK SE SA PT ES SI IT BE DK NL 0 20 40 60 GDP per capita in Purchasing Power Parities ($), in thousands US SW NO
Entrepreneurship and the Recession Pessimism reversing, particularly in innovationdriven economies. Starting a business Growth opportunities for established entrepreneurs Belgium, Greece, Italy and Spain remain negative In the U.S., entrepreneurial activity still decreasing More necessity-based entrepreneurship But opportunity perceptions on the rise again
Percentage of 18-64 population 2011, by Donna Kelley, Niels Bosma, Jose Ernesto Amoros and the Entrepreneurship and the recession: case of Ireland Entrepreneurial Attitudes Perceived opportunities Fear of failure 60% Good career choice (right axis) 100% 50% 90% 80% 40% 70% 60% 30% 50% 20% 40% 30% 10% 20% 10% 0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0%
Percentage of 18-64 population Percentage of early-stage entrepreneurial activity 2011, by Donna Kelley, Niels Bosma, Jose Ernesto Amoros and the Entrepreneurship and the recession: case of Ireland Entrepreneurial Activity Nascent entrepreneurial activity rate Young firm prevalence rate 10% Necessity motivation (right axis) 35% 9% 8% 30% 7% 25% 6% 5% 4% 20% 15% 3% 10% 2% 1% 5% 0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0%
It s Not Just About More Entrepreneurs Percentage of Early-Stage Entrepreneurs with International Orientation, 2008 2010 Customers Outside Country: 1-25% Customers Outside Country: More Than 25% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Factor-Driven Efficiency-Driven Innovation-Driven
It s Not Just About More Entrepreneurs Percentage of Early-Stage Entrepreneurs with International Orientation, 2008 2010 Customers Outside Country: 1-25% Customers Outside Country: More Than 25% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Brazil China Germany United States Montenegro
It s Not Just About More Entrepreneurs Job Growth Expectation for Early-Stage Entrepreneurship Activity, 2008 2010
Latin America and Caribbean United States and Western Europe Factor-Driven Innovation- Driven Efficiency- Driven Innovation-Driven Innovation- Driven MENA and Eastern Europe: Low Entrepreneurial Activity High Growth Expectations MENA/Sout h Asia Peru, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay Innovation- Latin America and Sub Saharan Africa: Jamaica, Guatemala, High Entrepreneurial Activity Bolivia Low Growth Expectations Factor-Bosnia Efficiency- and Belgium, Denmark, DrivenHerzegovina, Finland, DrivenFrance, Driven Germany, Egypt, Greece, Iran, Croatia, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Eastern Netherlands, Pakistan, Hungary, Norway, Portugal, Factor- Efficiency- Spain, Europe Sweden, Saudi Switzerland, Latvia, United Factor- Driven Driven Kingdom, Macedonia, Efficiency- Tunisia Slovenia Israel Arabia, Efficiency-Driven United States West Bank Montenegro, Driven Malaysia, Argentina, and Asia Angola, Brazil, Gaza Romania, Vanuatu China, Chile, Sub- Colombia, Pacific Ghana, Russia, South Saharan Taiwan Costa Rica, Uganda, Turkey Africa Ecuador, Africa Mexico, Zambia Australia, Japan, Republic of Korea
Pakistan Iran Egypt Saudi Arabia West Bank and Gaza Strip Jamaica Guatemala Zambia Uganda Angola Bolivia Ghana Vanuatu 2011, by Donna Kelley, Niels Bosma, Jose Ernesto Amoros and the Promote Entrepreneurship in Many Forms Economies Ranked by Level of Female Participation in TEA by Economic Group, 2010 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Male Female Factor-Driven Economies
Promote an Entrepreneurial Mindset Across the Population Perceptions intent actions Status Media Attention Career Preference
People become entrepreneurs, and in so doing, create sources of income for their families. They bring to life new products and services that provide value and improvements to their communities and to those around the world. As such, they create jobs and contribute to the economic development and comparative advantage of their societies.
Our Thanks to... 59 GEM 2010 National Teams Global Sponsors Babson College Universidad del Desarrollo The GERA Board Ignacio de la Vega, Chair José Ernesto Amorós, Simara Greco, Michael Hay, Mike Herrington, Donna Kelley and Jonathan Levie Executive Director: Kristie Seawright The GEM Coordination Team - Chris Aylett, Niels Bosma, Alicia Coduras, Marcia Cole, Mick Hancock, Yana Litovsky, Jackie Odoch and Jeff Seaman
GEM 2010 Global Report Global Entrepreneurship Monitor By Donna Kelley, Niels Bosma and Jose Ernesto Amoros 2010 Global Report Launch presentation 20 January 2010 Washington, DC Donna Kelley Niels Bosma José Ernesto Amorós